Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated 28 min agoPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-314974 decisions20:30:07 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-07-27: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 41 positions {'baseline': 8, 'h1': 8, 'h2': 8, 'h3': 9, 'h4': 8, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 46, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-07-27T20:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-07-27 20:30:07 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

2441

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$3,937.97

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 2441 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	506	18	348	60%	-0.0792	-0.0836	-0.1417	-$728.24	$9,194
baseline	secondary	FAIL	463	16	312	66%	-0.0817	-0.0855	-0.0355	-$703.03	$8,610
h1	secondary	FAIL	372	16	284	74%	-0.0197	-0.0221	-0.0531	-$264.83	$13,476
h2	secondary	FAIL	356	16	260	72%	-0.0492	-0.0534	-0.0416	-$436.34	$8,867
h4	secondary	FAIL	488	17	253	66%	-0.1081	-0.1126	-0.0324	-$825.47	$7,637
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions83 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$11.01	0.115	0.885
baseline	CHI	2026-07-27	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$11.01	0.035	0.965
baseline	CHI	2026-07-27	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$11.01	0.103	0.897
baseline	DAL	2026-07-27	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$11.01	0.100	0.900
baseline	DAL	2026-07-27	100-101°F	NO	0.570	$11.01	0.237	0.763
baseline	DEN	2026-07-27	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$11.01	0.024	0.976
baseline	DEN	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$11.01	0.082	0.918
baseline	DEN	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$11.01	0.247	0.753
h1	ATL	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$25.76	0.115	0.885
h1	CHI	2026-07-27	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$25.76	0.035	0.965
h1	CHI	2026-07-27	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$25.76	0.103	0.897
h1	DAL	2026-07-27	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$25.76	0.100	0.900
h1	DAL	2026-07-27	100-101°F	NO	0.570	$25.76	0.237	0.763
h1	DEN	2026-07-27	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$25.76	0.024	0.976
h1	DEN	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$25.76	0.082	0.918
h1	DEN	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$25.76	0.247	0.753
h2	ATL	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$20.05	0.115	0.885
h2	CHI	2026-07-27	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$20.05	0.035	0.965
h2	CHI	2026-07-27	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$20.05	0.103	0.897
h2	DAL	2026-07-27	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$20.05	0.100	0.900
h2	DEN	2026-07-27	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$20.05	0.024	0.976
h2	DEN	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$20.05	0.082	0.918
h2	LAX	2026-07-27	76-77°F	NO	0.890	$20.05	0.014	0.986
h2	MIA	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.790	$20.05	0.058	0.942
h3	ATL	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.690	$6.44	0.266	0.734
h3	ATL	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$10.08	0.115	0.885
h3	CHI	2026-07-27	88-89°F	NO	0.720	$5.65	0.244	0.756
h3	DAL	2026-07-27	100-101°F	NO	0.570	$10.08	0.237	0.763
h3	DEN	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$10.08	0.082	0.918
h3	DEN	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$10.08	0.247	0.753
h3	LAX	2026-07-27	78-79°F	NO	0.560	$10.08	0.034	0.966
h3	LAX	2026-07-27	80-81°F	NO	0.690	$10.08	0.088	0.912
h3	MIA	2026-07-27	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$8.07	0.224	0.776
h4	ATL	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.690	$4.03	0.266	0.734
h4	ATL	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$6.30	0.115	0.885
h4	CHI	2026-07-27	82-83°F	NO	0.960	$6.30	0.013	0.987
h4	CHI	2026-07-27	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$6.30	0.035	0.965
h4	CHI	2026-07-27	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$6.30	0.103	0.897
h4	DAL	2026-07-27	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$6.30	0.100	0.900
h4	DAL	2026-07-27	100-101°F	NO	0.570	$6.30	0.237	0.763
h4	DEN	2026-07-27	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$6.30	0.024	0.976
h4	DEN	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$2.28	0.082	0.918
baseline	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$10.42	0.136	0.864
baseline	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$10.42	0.288	0.712
baseline	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$10.42	0.136	0.864
baseline	CHI	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$10.42	0.282	0.718
baseline	DAL	2026-07-28	98-99°F	NO	0.840	$10.42	0.090	0.910
baseline	DAL	2026-07-28	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$10.42	0.221	0.779
baseline	DEN	2026-07-28	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$10.42	0.184	0.816
baseline	LAX	2026-07-28	76-77°F	NO	0.830	$10.42	0.038	0.962
h1	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$26.39	0.136	0.864
h1	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$26.39	0.136	0.864
h1	DAL	2026-07-28	98-99°F	NO	0.840	$26.39	0.090	0.910
h1	DAL	2026-07-28	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$26.39	0.221	0.779
h1	DEN	2026-07-28	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$26.39	0.184	0.816
h1	LAX	2026-07-28	76-77°F	NO	0.830	$26.39	0.038	0.962
h1	LAX	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$26.39	0.208	0.792
h1	MIA	2026-07-28	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$26.39	0.251	0.749
h2	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$20.12	0.136	0.864
h2	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$20.12	0.288	0.712
h2	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$20.12	0.136	0.864
h2	CHI	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$20.12	0.282	0.718
h2	DAL	2026-07-28	98-99°F	NO	0.840	$20.12	0.090	0.910
h2	LAX	2026-07-28	76-77°F	NO	0.830	$20.12	0.038	0.962
h2	NYC	2026-07-28	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$20.12	0.021	0.979
h2	NYC	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$20.12	0.160	0.840
h3	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$9.52	0.136	0.864
h3	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$9.52	0.288	0.712
h3	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$9.52	0.136	0.864
h3	CHI	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$9.52	0.282	0.718
h3	DAL	2026-07-28	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$9.52	0.221	0.779
h3	DAL	2026-07-28	102-103°F	NO	0.670	$1.95	0.311	0.689
h3	DEN	2026-07-28	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$9.52	0.184	0.816
h3	LAX	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.520	$9.52	0.096	0.904
h3	LAX	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$7.57	0.208	0.792
h4	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$6.19	0.136	0.864
h4	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$6.19	0.288	0.712
h4	CHI	2026-07-28	76-77°F	NO	0.930	$6.19	0.047	0.953
h4	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$6.19	0.136	0.864
h4	CHI	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$6.19	0.282	0.718
h4	DAL	2026-07-28	98-99°F	NO	0.840	$6.19	0.090	0.910
h4	DAL	2026-07-28	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$6.19	0.221	0.779
h4	DEN	2026-07-28	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$6.19	0.184	0.816

Settlements2441 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$7.70	-$7.79	LOSS	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$12.08	$5.09	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$28.38	$11.95	WIN	90°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$12.71	-$12.85	LOSS	90°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$19.95	$8.40	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$6.82	-$6.90	LOSS	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$10.71	$4.51	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$4.37	-$4.42	LOSS	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$6.86	$2.89	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-26	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$12.08	$2.96	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-26	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$12.08	$2.78	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.760	$12.08	-$12.16	LOSS	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$12.08	$3.95	WIN	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-26	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$28.38	$6.95	WIN	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-26	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$28.38	$6.52	WIN	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.760	$28.38	-$28.55	LOSS	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$28.38	$9.28	WIN	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-26	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$19.95	$4.89	WIN	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-26	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$19.95	$4.58	WIN	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.760	$19.95	-$20.07	LOSS	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$19.95	$6.53	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$10.71	$3.50	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-26	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$6.86	$1.68	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-26	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$6.86	$1.58	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.760	$6.86	-$6.90	LOSS	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$6.86	$2.24	WIN	90°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-26	98-99°F	NO	0.750	$12.08	-$12.16	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-26	100-101°F	NO	0.590	$7.86	$5.38	WIN	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-26	98-99°F	NO	0.750	$28.38	-$28.56	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-26	98-99°F	NO	0.750	$10.71	-$10.77	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-26	100-101°F	NO	0.590	$6.97	$4.77	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-26	98-99°F	NO	0.750	$6.86	-$6.90	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-26	100-101°F	NO	0.590	$4.46	$3.06	WIN	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-26	100-101°F	NO	0.470	$8.60	-$8.71	LOSS	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-26	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$5.58	$2.03	WIN	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-26	100-101°F	NO	0.470	$9.49	-$9.61	LOSS	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-26	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$3.57	$1.30	WIN	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-26	100-101°F	NO	0.470	$1.31	-$1.33	LOSS	100°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-26	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$28.38	$2.74	WIN	78°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-26	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$28.38	$11.39	WIN	78°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-26	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$19.95	$1.93	WIN	78°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-26	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$19.95	$8.00	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-26	78-79°F	NO	0.530	$10.71	-$10.83	LOSS	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-26	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$10.71	$4.30	WIN	78°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-26	80-81°F	NO	0.910	$7.23	$0.70	WIN	82°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$3.26	$2.74	WIN	94°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-25	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$10.13	$5.13	WIN	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-25	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$11.57	-$11.63	LOSS	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-25	90-91°F	NO	0.870	$11.57	$1.69	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-25	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$28.41	-$28.57	LOSS	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-25	90-91°F	NO	0.870	$28.41	$4.15	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-25	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$17.43	$8.83	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-25	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$19.89	-$20.00	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-25	90-91°F	NO	0.870	$19.89	$2.91	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-25	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$8.58	$4.34	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-25	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$6.09	$3.09	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-25	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$6.95	-$6.99	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-25	90-91°F	NO	0.870	$6.95	$1.02	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-25	79°F or below	NO	0.860	$11.57	$1.84	WIN	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-25	80-81°F	NO	0.800	$11.57	-$11.62	LOSS	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-25	82-83°F	NO	0.650	$11.57	$6.13	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-25	79°F or below	NO	0.860	$28.41	$4.52	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-25	80-81°F	NO	0.800	$28.41	-$28.55	LOSS	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-25	82-83°F	NO	0.650	$28.41	$15.05	WIN	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-25	79°F or below	NO	0.860	$19.89	$3.17	WIN	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-25	80-81°F	NO	0.800	$19.89	-$19.99	LOSS	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-25	82-83°F	NO	0.650	$19.89	$10.53	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-25	82-83°F	NO	0.650	$9.79	$5.18	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-25	79°F or below	NO	0.860	$6.95	$1.11	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-25	80-81°F	NO	0.800	$6.95	-$6.99	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-25	82-83°F	NO	0.650	$6.95	$3.68	WIN	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-25	96-97°F	NO	0.850	$11.57	$2.00	WIN	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-25	98-99°F	NO	0.610	$11.57	-$11.68	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-25	96-97°F	NO	0.850	$28.41	$4.91	WIN	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-25	98-99°F	NO	0.610	$28.41	-$28.68	LOSS	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-25	96-97°F	NO	0.850	$19.89	$3.43	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-25	98-99°F	NO	0.610	$9.79	-$9.88	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-25	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$6.06	$3.36	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-25	96-97°F	NO	0.850	$6.95	$1.20	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-25	98-99°F	NO	0.610	$6.95	-$7.02	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-25	98-99°F	NO	0.580	$1.43	$1.02	WIN	100°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-25	98-99°F	NO	0.580	$18.19	$12.98	WIN	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-25	98-99°F	NO	0.580	$8.95	$6.39	WIN	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-25	100-101°F	NO	0.630	$9.79	-$9.88	LOSS	100°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-25	76-77°F	NO	0.860	$28.41	$4.52	WIN	78°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-25	76-77°F	NO	0.860	$4.15	$0.66	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-25	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$9.79	-$9.87	LOSS	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-25	80-81°F	NO	0.740	$9.79	$3.37	WIN	78°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-25	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$4.72	$2.97	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-25	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$1.04	-$1.05	LOSS	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-24	82-83°F	NO	0.850	$11.84	$2.04	WIN	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-24	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$11.84	$5.23	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-24	82-83°F	NO	0.850	$27.50	$4.75	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-24	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$27.50	$12.14	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-24	82-83°F	NO	0.850	$19.31	$3.33	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-24	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$19.31	$8.52	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-24	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$10.52	$4.65	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-24	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$2.04	$0.86	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-24	82-83°F	NO	0.850	$7.56	$1.31	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-24	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$7.56	$3.34	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$11.84	-$11.90	LOSS	78°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$27.50	-$27.66	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$19.31	-$19.42	LOSS	78°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-24	80-81°F	NO	0.590	$10.52	$7.20	WIN	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$7.56	-$7.60	LOSS	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-24	80-81°F	NO	0.590	$7.56	$5.17	WIN	78°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$11.84	-$11.92	LOSS	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$27.50	-$27.69	LOSS	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$10.52	-$10.60	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$7.56	-$7.61	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.600	$11.84	$7.77	WIN	96°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.600	$27.50	$18.06	WIN	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.600	$10.52	$6.91	WIN	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-24	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$10.52	-$10.63	LOSS	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.600	$7.56	$4.96	WIN	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-24	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$7.56	-$7.63	LOSS	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-24	98-99°F	NO	0.952	$7.56	$0.37	WIN	96°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-24	88-89°F	NO	0.690	$11.84	$5.23	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-24	90-91°F	NO	0.550	$11.27	$9.09	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-24	88-89°F	NO	0.690	$27.50	$12.14	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-24	88-89°F	NO	0.690	$19.31	$8.52	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-24	90-91°F	NO	0.550	$18.38	$14.83	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-24	88-89°F	NO	0.690	$8.48	$3.74	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-24	80-81°F	NO	0.790	$11.84	$3.08	WIN	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-24	80-81°F	NO	0.790	$27.50	$7.17	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-24	80-81°F	NO	0.790	$19.31	$5.03	WIN	82°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$27.50	$7.60	WIN	82°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$19.31	$5.34	WIN	82°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-24	80-81°F	NO	0.600	$10.52	$6.91	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-24	82-83°F	NO	0.750	$10.52	$3.44	WIN	78°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$10.93	-$11.00	LOSS	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-23	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$6.65	$4.19	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$38.82	-$39.07	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$9.02	-$9.08	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-23	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$5.49	$3.45	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$6.65	-$6.70	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-23	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$4.05	$2.55	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-23	74-75°F	NO	0.900	$10.93	$1.19	WIN	76°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-23	74-75°F	NO	0.900	$38.82	$4.22	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-23	74-75°F	NO	0.900	$17.81	$1.93	WIN	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-23	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$9.02	-$9.08	LOSS	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$9.02	$6.43	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-23	74-75°F	NO	0.900	$6.65	$0.72	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-23	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$6.65	-$6.70	LOSS	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$6.65	$4.75	WIN	76°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-23	96-97°F	NO	0.880	$10.93	-$10.96	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-23	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$10.93	$3.97	WIN	96°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-23	100-101°F	NO	0.620	$6.54	$3.95	WIN	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-23	96-97°F	NO	0.880	$38.82	-$38.94	LOSS	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-23	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$38.82	$14.10	WIN	96°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-23	96-97°F	NO	0.880	$17.81	-$17.86	LOSS	96°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-23	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$17.81	$6.47	WIN	96°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-23	100-101°F	NO	0.620	$10.66	$6.43	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-23	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$9.02	$3.27	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-23	100-101°F	NO	0.620	$5.40	$3.26	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-23	96-97°F	NO	0.880	$6.65	-$6.67	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-23	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$6.65	$2.42	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-23	100-101°F	NO	0.620	$3.98	$2.40	WIN	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$10.93	$3.97	WIN	84°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$38.82	$14.10	WIN	84°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$17.81	$6.47	WIN	84°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-23	86-87°F	NO	0.610	$2.65	$1.67	WIN	84°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$9.02	$3.27	WIN	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-23	86-87°F	NO	0.610	$1.96	$1.23	WIN	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$3.32	$1.20	WIN	84°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.920	$10.93	$0.93	WIN	80°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.920	$38.82	$3.30	WIN	80°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.920	$17.81	$1.51	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-23	80-81°F	NO	0.660	$9.02	-$9.09	LOSS	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-23	82-83°F	NO	0.570	$4.50	$3.34	WIN	80°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-23	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$8.67	$5.23	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-23	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$15.05	$9.08	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-23	92-93°F	NO	0.530	$13.71	-$13.87	LOSS	92°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$38.82	$8.92	WIN	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$14.00	$3.22	WIN	80°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-23	74-75°F	NO	0.800	$38.82	-$39.01	LOSS	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-22	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$11.37	-$11.44	LOSS	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-22	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$11.37	$9.55	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-22	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$34.34	-$34.53	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-22	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$18.58	-$18.68	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-22	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$18.58	$15.61	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-22	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$9.49	$7.98	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-22	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$6.74	-$6.78	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-22	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$6.74	$5.67	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-22	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$11.37	$3.52	WIN	74°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-22	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$11.37	$9.55	WIN	74°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-22	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$34.34	$10.64	WIN	74°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-22	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$18.58	$5.75	WIN	74°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-22	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$18.58	$15.61	WIN	74°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-22	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$9.49	$7.98	WIN	74°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-22	68-69°F	NO	0.926	$6.74	$0.53	WIN	74°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-22	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$6.74	$2.09	WIN	74°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-22	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$6.74	$5.67	WIN	74°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-22	102-103°F	NO	0.850	$11.37	$1.96	WIN	108°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-22	102-103°F	NO	0.850	$34.34	$5.93	WIN	108°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-22	102-103°F	NO	0.850	$18.58	$3.21	WIN	108°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-22	104-105°F	NO	0.610	$9.49	$5.98	WIN	108°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-22	106-107°F	NO	0.660	$2.54	$1.29	WIN	108°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-22	102-103°F	NO	0.850	$6.74	$1.16	WIN	108°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-22	104-105°F	NO	0.610	$6.74	$4.25	WIN	108°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	55/30	yes
CHI	54/30	yes
DAL	54/30	yes
DEN	55/30	yes
LAX	55/30	yes
MIA	55/30	yes
NYC	53/30	yes
SEA	39/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$3,937.97.