Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-3110312 decisions14:03:36 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-09-27: 8 decision snapshots, 86 new decision rows, opened 34 positions {'baseline': 7, 'h1': 4, 'h2': 6, 'h3': 9, 'h4': 8, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 39, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-09-28T14:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 24 snapshots written
rendered 2026-09-28 14:03:36 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

4725

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$5,146.69

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 4725 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	1058	9	727	58%	-0.0781	-0.0816	-0.1855	-$910.10	$11,652
baseline	secondary	FAIL	947	7	662	67%	-0.0778	-0.0807	-0.0414	-$886.65	$11,397
h1	secondary	FAIL	723	4	570	73%	-0.0351	-0.0368	-0.0700	-$699.78	$19,930
h2	secondary	FAIL	727	6	541	71%	-0.0542	-0.0569	-0.0359	-$762.01	$14,052
h4	secondary	FAIL	1014	8	530	65%	-0.0960	-0.0996	-0.0713	-$908.09	$9,456
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions34 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-09-28	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$4.25	0.144	0.856
baseline	CHI	2026-09-28	74-75°F	NO	0.650	$3.41	0.289	0.711
baseline	DEN	2026-09-28	70-71°F	NO	0.820	$4.25	0.071	0.929
baseline	DEN	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$4.25	0.225	0.775
baseline	LAX	2026-09-28	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$4.25	0.245	0.755
baseline	MIA	2026-09-28	88-89°F	NO	0.500	$2.67	0.383	0.617
baseline	MIA	2026-09-28	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$4.25	0.148	0.852
h1	ATL	2026-09-28	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$12.47	0.144	0.856
h1	DEN	2026-09-28	70-71°F	NO	0.820	$12.47	0.071	0.929
h1	DEN	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$12.47	0.225	0.775
h1	MIA	2026-09-28	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$12.47	0.148	0.852
h2	ATL	2026-09-28	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$9.98	0.144	0.856
h2	CHI	2026-09-28	74-75°F	NO	0.650	$8.01	0.289	0.711
h2	DEN	2026-09-28	70-71°F	NO	0.820	$9.98	0.071	0.929
h2	LAX	2026-09-28	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$9.98	0.245	0.755
h2	MIA	2026-09-28	88-89°F	NO	0.500	$6.27	0.383	0.617
h2	MIA	2026-09-28	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$9.98	0.148	0.852
h3	ATL	2026-09-28	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$3.01	0.144	0.856
h3	ATL	2026-09-28	82-83°F	NO	0.450	$3.01	0.294	0.706
h3	CHI	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.470	$3.01	0.279	0.721
h3	CHI	2026-09-28	74-75°F	NO	0.650	$2.42	0.289	0.711
h3	DAL	2026-09-28	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$2.11	0.270	0.730
h3	DAL	2026-09-28	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$3.01	0.128	0.872
h3	DEN	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$3.01	0.225	0.775
h3	LAX	2026-09-28	76-77°F	NO	0.420	$2.42	0.266	0.734
h3	LAX	2026-09-28	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$2.08	0.245	0.755
h4	ATL	2026-09-28	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$3.21	0.144	0.856
h4	ATL	2026-09-28	82-83°F	NO	0.450	$3.21	0.294	0.706
h4	CHI	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.470	$3.21	0.279	0.721
h4	CHI	2026-09-28	74-75°F	NO	0.650	$2.58	0.289	0.711
h4	DAL	2026-09-28	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$3.21	0.128	0.872
h4	DAL	2026-09-28	96-97°F	NO	0.910	$3.21	0.045	0.955
h4	DEN	2026-09-28	70-71°F	NO	0.820	$3.21	0.071	0.929
h4	DEN	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$3.21	0.225	0.775

Settlements4725 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-09-27	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$4.80	-$4.85	LOSS	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.560	$3.72	$2.88	WIN	80°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-27	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$12.60	-$12.71	LOSS	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-27	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$3.38	-$3.41	LOSS	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.560	$2.61	$2.02	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-27	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$3.41	-$3.45	LOSS	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.560	$2.64	$2.05	WIN	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-27	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$3.38	$1.96	WIN	72°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-27	72-73°F	NO	0.580	$4.80	-$4.85	LOSS	72°F
h2	CHI	2026-09-27	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$7.35	$4.25	WIN	72°F
h2	CHI	2026-09-27	72-73°F	NO	0.580	$10.44	-$10.55	LOSS	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-27	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$2.38	$1.38	WIN	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-27	72-73°F	NO	0.580	$3.38	-$3.41	LOSS	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-27	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$2.41	$1.39	WIN	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-27	72-73°F	NO	0.580	$3.41	-$3.45	LOSS	72°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-27	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$4.80	$2.22	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-09-27	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$12.60	$5.83	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-27	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$3.38	$1.56	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-27	90-91°F	NO	0.890	$2.58	$0.31	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-27	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$3.41	$1.58	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-27	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$4.80	-$4.84	LOSS	84°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-27	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$12.60	-$12.68	LOSS	84°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-27	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$10.44	-$10.50	LOSS	84°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.430	$3.38	$4.43	WIN	84°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-27	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$3.38	-$3.40	LOSS	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.430	$3.41	$4.48	WIN	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-27	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$3.41	-$3.44	LOSS	84°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-27	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$4.80	$1.25	WIN	84°F
h1	LAX	2026-09-27	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$12.60	$3.28	WIN	84°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-27	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$10.44	$2.72	WIN	84°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-27	80-81°F	NO	0.560	$3.38	$2.62	WIN	84°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.720	$1.76	$0.67	WIN	84°F
h4	LAX	2026-09-27	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$2.62	$0.68	WIN	84°F
baseline	MIA	2026-09-27	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$4.80	-$4.85	LOSS	88°F
h1	MIA	2026-09-27	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$12.60	-$12.72	LOSS	88°F
baseline	NYC	2026-09-27	62-63°F	NO	0.770	$2.51	$0.73	WIN	64°F
h1	NYC	2026-09-27	62-63°F	NO	0.770	$12.60	$3.69	WIN	64°F
h2	NYC	2026-09-27	62-63°F	NO	0.770	$10.44	$3.06	WIN	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-09-27	64-65°F	NO	0.550	$10.44	-$10.55	LOSS	64°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$3.84	$1.06	WIN	80°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$13.28	$3.67	WIN	80°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$9.13	$2.52	WIN	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-26	80-81°F	NO	0.470	$3.04	-$3.08	LOSS	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$3.07	$0.85	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-26	80-81°F	NO	0.470	$3.07	-$3.11	LOSS	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-26	70-71°F	NO	0.610	$3.84	$2.42	WIN	68°F
h2	CHI	2026-09-26	70-71°F	NO	0.610	$9.13	$5.75	WIN	68°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-26	68-69°F	NO	0.480	$1.75	-$1.77	LOSS	68°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-26	70-71°F	NO	0.610	$3.04	$1.92	WIN	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-26	68-69°F	NO	0.480	$1.77	-$1.79	LOSS	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-26	70-71°F	NO	0.610	$3.07	$1.93	WIN	68°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$3.84	$1.33	WIN	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-26	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$3.84	$2.32	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$13.28	$4.58	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-09-26	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$13.28	$8.01	WIN	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$9.13	$3.15	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$3.04	$1.05	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-26	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$3.04	$1.84	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$3.07	$1.06	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-26	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$3.07	$1.85	WIN	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$3.84	$1.13	WIN	80°F
h1	LAX	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$13.28	$3.89	WIN	80°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$9.13	$2.67	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-26	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$3.04	-$3.07	LOSS	80°F
baseline	NYC	2026-09-26	62-63°F	NO	0.630	$1.92	-$1.94	LOSS	62°F
h2	NYC	2026-09-26	62-63°F	NO	0.630	$4.57	-$4.61	LOSS	62°F
h3	NYC	2026-09-26	62-63°F	NO	0.630	$1.29	-$1.30	LOSS	62°F
baseline	SEA	2026-09-26	64-65°F	NO	0.720	$3.84	-$3.87	LOSS	64°F
h1	SEA	2026-09-26	64-65°F	NO	0.720	$13.28	-$13.37	LOSS	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-09-26	64-65°F	NO	0.720	$9.13	-$9.19	LOSS	64°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-26	82-83°F	NO	0.440	$3.04	-$3.09	LOSS	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-26	82-83°F	NO	0.440	$3.07	-$3.11	LOSS	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-26	84-85°F	NO	0.760	$3.07	$0.95	WIN	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-26	86-87°F	NO	0.960	$1.30	$0.05	WIN	82°F
h3	MIA	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.520	$3.04	$2.77	WIN	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.790	$4.55	$1.19	WIN	76°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.790	$13.45	$3.50	WIN	76°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.790	$9.73	$2.53	WIN	76°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.550	$3.70	-$3.74	LOSS	76°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.790	$3.51	$0.92	WIN	76°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.550	$3.51	-$3.55	LOSS	76°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-25	68-69°F	NO	0.550	$4.55	$3.67	WIN	64°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.730	$4.55	$1.65	WIN	64°F
h1	CHI	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.730	$13.45	$4.88	WIN	64°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-25	68-69°F	NO	0.550	$3.70	$2.98	WIN	64°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.730	$3.70	$1.34	WIN	64°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-25	68-69°F	NO	0.550	$3.51	$2.84	WIN	64°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.730	$3.51	$1.28	WIN	64°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.740	$4.55	-$4.58	LOSS	76°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-25	78-79°F	NO	0.620	$4.55	$2.74	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.740	$13.45	-$13.54	LOSS	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.740	$9.73	-$9.79	LOSS	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-25	78-79°F	NO	0.620	$9.73	$5.87	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.740	$3.70	-$3.72	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-25	78-79°F	NO	0.620	$3.70	$2.23	WIN	76°F
h4	LAX	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.740	$3.51	-$3.54	LOSS	76°F
h4	LAX	2026-09-25	78-79°F	NO	0.620	$3.51	$2.12	WIN	76°F
baseline	MIA	2026-09-25	88-89°F	NO	0.500	$4.55	$4.49	WIN	90°F
h2	MIA	2026-09-25	88-89°F	NO	0.500	$9.73	$9.61	WIN	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-09-25	88-89°F	NO	0.500	$3.70	$3.65	WIN	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-09-25	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$2.38	-$2.40	LOSS	90°F
h4	MIA	2026-09-25	88-89°F	NO	0.500	$2.26	$2.23	WIN	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-09-25	68-69°F	NO	0.800	$4.55	-$4.57	LOSS	68°F
baseline	NYC	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.590	$4.55	$3.11	WIN	68°F
h1	NYC	2026-09-25	68-69°F	NO	0.800	$13.45	-$13.52	LOSS	68°F
h2	NYC	2026-09-25	68-69°F	NO	0.800	$9.73	-$9.78	LOSS	68°F
h2	NYC	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.590	$9.73	$6.66	WIN	68°F
h1	SEA	2026-09-25	58-59°F	NO	0.760	$13.45	$4.17	WIN	62°F
h2	SEA	2026-09-25	58-59°F	NO	0.760	$9.73	$3.01	WIN	62°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-25	88-89°F	NO	0.600	$3.70	$2.43	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-25	88-89°F	NO	0.600	$3.51	$2.31	WIN	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.620	$1.32	-$1.33	LOSS	74°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.620	$1.25	-$1.27	LOSS	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-24	68-69°F	NO	0.790	$3.57	$0.93	WIN	70°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-24	68-69°F	NO	0.790	$10.16	$2.65	WIN	70°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-24	68-69°F	NO	0.790	$8.96	$2.33	WIN	70°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-24	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$3.02	-$3.04	LOSS	70°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-24	68-69°F	NO	0.790	$3.00	$0.78	WIN	70°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-24	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$3.00	-$3.02	LOSS	70°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-24	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$3.57	$0.88	WIN	92°F
h1	DAL	2026-09-24	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$10.16	$2.49	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-09-24	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$8.96	$2.19	WIN	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-24	92-93°F	NO	0.520	$3.02	-$3.06	LOSS	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-24	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$3.00	$0.73	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-24	92-93°F	NO	0.520	$3.00	-$3.03	LOSS	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-24	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$3.57	$1.36	WIN	70°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-24	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$3.57	$0.52	WIN	70°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-24	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$10.16	$3.88	WIN	70°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-24	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$10.16	$1.49	WIN	70°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-24	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$8.96	$3.42	WIN	70°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-24	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$8.96	$1.31	WIN	70°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-24	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$3.02	$1.15	WIN	70°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-24	62-63°F	NO	0.970	$3.00	$0.09	WIN	70°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-24	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$3.00	$1.14	WIN	70°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-24	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$3.00	$0.44	WIN	70°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-24	76-77°F	NO	0.750	$3.57	-$3.60	LOSS	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-09-24	76-77°F	NO	0.750	$10.16	-$10.23	LOSS	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-24	76-77°F	NO	0.750	$8.96	-$9.01	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-24	76-77°F	NO	0.750	$3.02	-$3.04	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-24	78-79°F	NO	0.490	$2.95	$3.03	WIN	76°F
h4	LAX	2026-09-24	74-75°F	NO	0.900	$1.11	$0.12	WIN	76°F
baseline	SEA	2026-09-24	58-59°F	NO	0.790	$3.57	$0.93	WIN	62°F
h1	SEA	2026-09-24	58-59°F	NO	0.790	$10.16	$2.65	WIN	62°F
h2	SEA	2026-09-24	58-59°F	NO	0.790	$8.96	$2.33	WIN	62°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-24	68-69°F	NO	0.440	$1.90	-$1.92	LOSS	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-24	68-69°F	NO	0.440	$1.88	-$1.91	LOSS	68°F
h3	MIA	2026-09-24	90-91°F	NO	0.480	$3.02	-$3.06	LOSS	90°F
h3	NYC	2026-09-24	66-67°F	NO	0.450	$2.95	$3.56	WIN	68°F
h3	NYC	2026-09-24	68-69°F	NO	0.700	$1.27	-$1.28	LOSS	68°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$4.04	$0.87	WIN	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-23	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$4.04	$1.54	WIN	80°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$13.44	$2.89	WIN	80°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-23	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$13.44	$5.13	WIN	80°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$8.86	$1.91	WIN	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-23	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$2.73	$1.04	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$3.04	$0.65	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-23	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$3.04	$1.16	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-23	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$1.68	-$1.69	LOSS	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-23	64-65°F	NO	0.620	$4.04	$2.44	WIN	68°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-23	66-67°F	NO	0.500	$3.90	$3.85	WIN	68°F
h1	CHI	2026-09-23	64-65°F	NO	0.620	$13.44	$8.11	WIN	68°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-23	64-65°F	NO	0.620	$2.73	$1.65	WIN	68°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-23	66-67°F	NO	0.500	$2.63	$2.60	WIN	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-23	64-65°F	NO	0.620	$3.04	$1.83	WIN	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-23	66-67°F	NO	0.500	$2.93	$2.90	WIN	68°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-23	92-93°F	NO	0.790	$4.04	$1.05	WIN	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-09-23	92-93°F	NO	0.790	$13.44	$3.50	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-09-23	92-93°F	NO	0.790	$8.86	$2.31	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-23	94-95°F	NO	0.500	$2.09	$2.07	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-23	92-93°F	NO	0.790	$3.04	$0.79	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-23	94-95°F	NO	0.500	$2.33	$2.30	WIN	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-23	76-77°F	NO	0.670	$4.01	$1.94	WIN	74°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-23	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$4.04	$1.05	WIN	74°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-23	76-77°F	NO	0.670	$13.33	$6.46	WIN	74°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-23	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$13.44	$3.50	WIN	74°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-23	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$8.86	$2.31	WIN	74°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-23	76-77°F	NO	0.670	$2.70	$1.31	WIN	74°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-23	76-77°F	NO	0.670	$3.01	$1.46	WIN	74°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-23	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$2.19	$0.57	WIN	74°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-23	76-77°F	NO	0.870	$4.04	-$4.05	LOSS	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-09-23	76-77°F	NO	0.870	$13.44	-$13.48	LOSS	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-23	76-77°F	NO	0.870	$8.86	-$8.89	LOSS	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-23	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$7.38	$2.96	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-23	78-79°F	NO	0.510	$2.73	$2.59	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-23	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$2.27	$0.91	WIN	76°F
h1	MIA	2026-09-23	88-89°F	NO	0.820	$13.44	$2.89	WIN	82°F
h2	MIA	2026-09-23	86-87°F	NO	0.590	$8.86	$6.07	WIN	82°F
h2	MIA	2026-09-23	88-89°F	NO	0.820	$8.86	$1.91	WIN	82°F
h3	MIA	2026-09-23	86-87°F	NO	0.590	$2.73	$1.87	WIN	82°F
h2	SEA	2026-09-23	66-67°F	NO	0.540	$4.46	-$4.51	LOSS	66°F
h3	NYC	2026-09-23	66-67°F	NO	0.380	$1.21	$1.95	WIN	70°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-22	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$3.91	$0.47	WIN	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-22	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$3.91	-$3.94	LOSS	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-22	88-89°F	NO	0.610	$3.91	$2.46	WIN	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-22	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$12.62	$1.52	WIN	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-22	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$12.62	-$12.70	LOSS	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-22	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$10.15	$1.23	WIN	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-22	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$10.15	-$10.22	LOSS	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-22	88-89°F	NO	0.610	$10.15	$6.39	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-22	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$2.86	-$2.88	LOSS	86°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	117/30	yes
CHI	116/30	yes
DAL	116/30	yes
DEN	116/30	yes
LAX	117/30	yes
MIA	114/30	yes
NYC	105/30	yes
SEA	92/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$5,146.69.