Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-312426 decisions08:02:49 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-06-28: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 46 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 8, 'h2': 5, 'h3': 10, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 5}
settle▸ [settle] settled 46, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-06-29T08:00:03Z] forward-collection done: 19 snapshots written
rendered 2026-06-29 08:02:49 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

1280

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$2,836.33

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 1280 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	241	10	175	61%	-0.0610	-0.0675	-0.0669	-$372.08	$6,104
baseline	secondary	FAIL	219	9	152	64%	-0.0925	-0.0984	-0.0208	-$528.28	$5,711
h1	secondary	FAIL	173	8	135	75%	+0.0082	+0.0036	-0.0452	$50.79	$6,201
h2	secondary	FAIL	157	5	119	68%	-0.0875	-0.0951	-0.0605	-$442.86	$5,064
h4	secondary	FAIL	242	9	134	66%	-0.1036	-0.1098	+0.0473	-$573.54	$5,534
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	248	5	148	9%	-0.5944	-0.7165	-0.1184	-$970.36	$1,632

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions46 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$16.59	0.280	0.720
baseline	CHI	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.860	$16.59	0.034	0.966
baseline	DAL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$16.59	0.194	0.806
baseline	DAL	2026-06-29	98-99°F	NO	0.620	$12.25	0.309	0.691
baseline	DEN	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$16.59	0.151	0.849
baseline	DEN	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.897	$16.59	0.044	0.956
baseline	LAX	2026-06-29	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$16.59	0.210	0.790
baseline	MIA	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.450	$13.61	0.405	0.595
baseline	NYC	2026-06-29	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$7.31	0.216	0.784
h1	CHI	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.860	$36.73	0.034	0.966
h1	DAL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$36.73	0.194	0.806
h1	DEN	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$36.73	0.151	0.849
h1	DEN	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.897	$36.73	0.044	0.956
h1	LAX	2026-06-29	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$36.73	0.210	0.790
h1	NYC	2026-06-29	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$36.73	0.216	0.784
h1	SEA	2026-06-29	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$36.73	0.061	0.939
h1	SEA	2026-06-29	66-67°F	NO	0.640	$36.73	0.209	0.791
h2	ATL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$19.12	0.280	0.720
h2	CHI	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.860	$19.12	0.034	0.966
h2	DEN	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$19.12	0.151	0.849
h2	DEN	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.897	$19.12	0.044	0.956
h2	SEA	2026-06-29	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$19.12	0.061	0.939
h3	ATL	2026-06-29	94-95°F	NO	0.610	$24.11	0.128	0.872
h3	ATL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$24.11	0.280	0.720
h3	CHI	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$24.11	0.100	0.900
h3	CHI	2026-06-29	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$2.59	0.240	0.760
h3	DAL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$24.11	0.194	0.806
h3	DAL	2026-06-29	98-99°F	NO	0.620	$17.80	0.309	0.691
h3	DEN	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$24.11	0.151	0.849
h3	LAX	2026-06-29	70-71°F	NO	0.590	$24.11	0.098	0.902
h3	LAX	2026-06-29	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$24.11	0.210	0.790
h3	MIA	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.450	$3.72	0.405	0.595
h4	ATL	2026-06-29	94-95°F	NO	0.610	$16.91	0.128	0.872
h4	ATL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$16.91	0.280	0.720
h4	CHI	2026-06-29	88-89°F	NO	0.970	$16.91	0.012	0.988
h4	CHI	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.860	$16.91	0.034	0.966
h4	CHI	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$16.91	0.100	0.900
h4	DAL	2026-06-29	94-95°F	NO	0.879	$16.91	0.075	0.925
h4	DAL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$16.91	0.194	0.806
h4	DAL	2026-06-29	98-99°F	NO	0.620	$12.48	0.309	0.691
h4	DEN	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$4.42	0.151	0.849
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-29	98-99°F	YES	0.111	$1.41	0.297	0.297
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-29	100-101°F	YES	0.100	$1.04	0.228	0.228
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-29	74-75°F	YES	0.089	$1.45	0.279	0.279
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-29	76-77°F	YES	0.012	$1.38	0.196	0.196
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-29	68-69°F	YES	0.270	$1.05	0.378	0.378

Settlements1280 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-06-28	90-91°F	NO	0.850	$17.98	$3.11	WIN	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-28	90-91°F	NO	0.850	$39.07	$6.75	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-28	90-91°F	NO	0.850	$26.18	$4.52	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-28	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$23.08	-$23.31	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-28	90-91°F	NO	0.850	$16.44	$2.84	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-28	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$16.44	-$16.60	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-28	96-97°F	YES	0.075	$1.76	-$1.80	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-28	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$17.98	-$18.02	LOSS	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-28	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$17.98	$6.53	WIN	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-28	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$17.98	$8.71	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-28	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$39.07	-$39.15	LOSS	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-28	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$39.07	$14.19	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-28	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$39.07	$18.92	WIN	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-28	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$26.18	-$26.23	LOSS	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-28	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$26.18	$9.51	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-28	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$23.08	$8.38	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-28	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$23.08	$11.18	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-28	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$16.44	-$16.47	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-28	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$16.44	$5.97	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-28	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$16.44	$7.96	WIN	80°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-28	88-89°F	YES	0.090	$1.17	-$1.19	LOSS	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.570	$15.87	-$16.04	LOSS	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$17.23	$6.26	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.570	$20.37	-$20.58	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.570	$14.50	-$14.66	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-28	94-95°F	NO	0.550	$12.25	-$12.39	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$17.98	$5.88	WIN	94°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$39.07	$12.78	WIN	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-28	94-95°F	NO	0.550	$17.83	-$18.03	LOSS	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$26.18	$8.56	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-28	94-95°F	NO	0.550	$15.73	-$15.90	LOSS	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$23.08	$7.55	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-28	94-95°F	NO	0.550	$11.20	-$11.32	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$16.44	$5.38	WIN	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-28	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$17.98	$10.40	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-28	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$26.18	$15.13	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-28	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$23.08	-$23.32	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-28	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$15.92	$9.20	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-28	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$7.17	-$7.25	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-28	74-75°F	YES	0.056	$1.86	-$1.91	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-28	76-77°F	YES	0.012	$1.20	-$1.23	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-28	90-91°F	NO	0.530	$7.85	$6.87	WIN	92°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-28	80-81°F	NO	0.660	$39.07	$19.80	WIN	82°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-28	64-65°F	NO	0.830	$39.07	$7.84	WIN	66°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-28	64-65°F	NO	0.830	$26.18	$5.25	WIN	66°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-28	70-71°F	YES	0.120	$1.49	-$1.53	LOSS	66°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$21.94	$13.81	WIN	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$40.44	$25.46	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$28.30	$17.82	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-27	88-89°F	NO	0.890	$16.49	$1.99	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$19.20	$12.09	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-27	94-95°F	YES	0.091	$1.36	-$1.39	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-27	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$21.94	$6.07	WIN	76°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$21.94	-$22.15	LOSS	76°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-27	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$40.44	$11.18	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-27	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$27.20	$7.52	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$27.20	-$27.46	LOSS	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$28.30	-$28.57	LOSS	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-27	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$19.20	$5.31	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$19.20	-$19.38	LOSS	76°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-27	96-97°F	NO	0.860	$21.94	-$22.02	LOSS	96°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-27	96-97°F	NO	0.860	$40.44	-$40.58	LOSS	96°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-27	96-97°F	NO	0.860	$27.20	-$27.30	LOSS	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-27	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$13.84	$6.70	WIN	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-27	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$28.30	$13.09	WIN	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-27	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$19.20	$8.88	WIN	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-27	96-97°F	NO	0.860	$19.20	-$19.27	LOSS	96°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-27	88-89°F	YES	0.037	$1.34	-$1.37	LOSS	96°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-27	90-91°F	YES	0.200	$1.54	-$1.57	LOSS	96°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-27	72-73°F	NO	0.610	$21.94	-$22.15	LOSS	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-27	72-73°F	NO	0.610	$27.20	-$27.47	LOSS	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-27	70-71°F	NO	0.600	$28.30	$18.58	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-27	72-73°F	NO	0.610	$28.30	-$28.57	LOSS	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-27	70-71°F	NO	0.600	$19.20	$12.61	WIN	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-27	72-73°F	NO	0.610	$17.29	-$17.46	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-27	74-75°F	YES	0.107	$1.91	-$1.95	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-27	76-77°F	YES	0.010	$1.54	-$1.57	LOSS	72°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.470	$11.58	-$11.73	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.470	$14.93	-$15.13	LOSS	90°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-27	88-89°F	YES	0.170	$1.50	-$1.53	LOSS	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$21.94	$8.38	WIN	78°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-27	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$15.50	-$15.64	LOSS	78°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$40.44	$15.44	WIN	78°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$28.30	$10.81	WIN	78°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-27	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$19.99	-$20.17	LOSS	78°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-27	64-65°F	NO	0.750	$16.81	$5.50	WIN	68°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-27	64-65°F	NO	0.750	$40.44	$13.23	WIN	68°F
h3	SEA	2026-06-27	64-65°F	NO	0.750	$1.02	$0.33	WIN	68°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-27	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$6.82	$3.46	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-27	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$4.63	$2.34	WIN	96°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$11.63	-$11.74	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-26	86-87°F	NO	0.750	$1.94	$0.63	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$13.96	-$14.09	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$10.32	-$10.42	LOSS	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$22.22	$3.84	WIN	66°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$33.75	$5.83	WIN	66°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$24.36	$4.21	WIN	66°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$19.72	$3.41	WIN	66°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-26	76-77°F	NO	0.972	$19.72	$0.55	WIN	66°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$22.22	-$22.41	LOSS	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$24.36	-$24.58	LOSS	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$26.67	-$26.90	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$19.72	-$19.89	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-26	98-99°F	NO	0.930	$19.72	$1.45	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$22.22	-$22.34	LOSS	88°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$22.22	$2.41	WIN	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$33.75	-$33.94	LOSS	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$33.75	$3.67	WIN	88°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$24.36	-$24.50	LOSS	88°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$24.36	$2.65	WIN	88°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-26	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$13.02	$5.75	WIN	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$19.72	-$19.83	LOSS	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$19.72	$2.14	WIN	88°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$22.22	$8.07	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$33.75	$12.26	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$24.36	$8.85	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-26	70-71°F	NO	0.440	$26.67	-$27.04	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$26.67	$9.68	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-26	70-71°F	NO	0.440	$19.72	-$19.99	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$9.40	$3.41	WIN	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-26	72-73°F	YES	0.110	$1.19	-$1.21	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-26	74-75°F	YES	0.038	$1.04	-$1.07	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$22.22	-$22.46	LOSS	90°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$24.36	-$24.63	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$26.67	-$26.96	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-26	92-93°F	NO	0.600	$11.01	$7.23	WIN	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-26	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$22.22	-$22.30	LOSS	82°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-26	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$10.59	$5.86	WIN	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-26	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$33.75	-$33.89	LOSS	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-26	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$33.75	$18.68	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-26	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$24.36	-$24.46	LOSS	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-26	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$26.67	$14.76	WIN	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-26	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$4.19	$1.94	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-26	88-89°F	YES	0.050	$1.68	-$1.72	LOSS	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$22.02	$9.27	WIN	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-25	84-85°F	NO	0.760	$22.02	$6.82	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$37.49	$15.79	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-25	84-85°F	NO	0.760	$37.49	$11.62	WIN	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$29.00	$12.21	WIN	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-25	84-85°F	NO	0.760	$29.00	$8.99	WIN	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$26.87	$11.31	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	79°F or below	NO	0.983	$20.02	$0.34	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$20.02	$8.43	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	80-81°F	NO	0.983	$20.02	$0.34	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	82-83°F	NO	0.953	$20.02	-$20.04	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-25	90-91°F	YES	0.099	$2.16	-$2.20	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-25	92-93°F	YES	0.020	$1.15	-$1.18	LOSS	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$22.02	$6.45	WIN	78°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.630	$22.02	-$22.22	LOSS	78°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$37.49	$10.98	WIN	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$29.00	$8.50	WIN	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.630	$29.00	-$29.27	LOSS	78°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.630	$26.87	-$27.11	LOSS	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$20.02	$5.86	WIN	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.630	$20.02	-$20.20	LOSS	78°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-25	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$18.05	$8.35	WIN	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-25	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$22.02	$5.40	WIN	92°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-25	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$37.49	$9.19	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-25	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$23.78	$11.00	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-25	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$29.00	$7.11	WIN	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-25	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$22.02	$10.19	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-25	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$16.41	$7.59	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-25	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$20.02	$4.90	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-25	98-99°F	NO	0.941	$3.61	$0.22	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$22.02	-$22.13	LOSS	76°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.890	$22.02	$2.66	WIN	76°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$37.49	-$37.67	LOSS	76°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.890	$37.49	$4.53	WIN	76°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$29.00	-$29.14	LOSS	76°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.890	$29.00	$3.51	WIN	76°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-25	72-73°F	YES	0.200	$1.46	-$1.49	LOSS	76°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-25	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$3.97	$1.52	WIN	72°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-25	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$37.49	$14.32	WIN	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-25	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$5.23	$2.00	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-25	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$26.87	$10.26	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-25	70-71°F	NO	0.570	$26.87	$19.98	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-25	72-73°F	YES	0.120	$2.03	$14.84	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-25	74-75°F	YES	0.020	$2.08	-$2.14	LOSS	72°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-25	80-81°F	NO	0.840	$37.49	$6.99	WIN	84°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-25	82-83°F	NO	0.650	$26.87	$14.23	WIN	84°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-25	84-85°F	NO	0.680	$4.51	-$4.55	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-25	86-87°F	YES	0.059	$1.62	-$1.66	LOSS	84°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-25	90-91°F	NO	0.590	$20.11	-$20.32	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-25	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$9.45	$5.70	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-25	68-69°F	YES	0.280	$1.23	-$1.25	LOSS	64°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$23.02	$11.15	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$34.92	$16.91	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$27.84	$13.48	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-24	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$16.02	-$16.16	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$19.93	$9.65	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$23.02	$3.67	WIN	86°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$34.92	$5.56	WIN	86°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$29.22	$4.65	WIN	86°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.730	$7.96	$2.89	WIN	86°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$19.93	$3.18	WIN	86°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-24	80-81°F	NO	0.940	$19.93	$1.24	WIN	86°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-24	68-69°F	NO	0.889	$23.02	$2.81	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-24	68-69°F	NO	0.889	$34.92	$4.26	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-24	68-69°F	NO	0.889	$29.22	$3.57	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-24	70-71°F	NO	0.520	$27.84	-$28.17	LOSS	70°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	27/30	no
CHI	26/30	no
DAL	26/30	no
DEN	27/30	no
LAX	27/30	no
MIA	27/30	no
NYC	26/30	no
SEA	22/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$2,836.33.