Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-314535 decisions14:02:24 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-07-22: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 46 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 8, 'h2': 9, 'h3': 10, 'h4': 10, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 42, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-07-23T14:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-07-23 14:02:24 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

2265

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$3,776.06

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 2265 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	467	10	325	60%	-0.0808	-0.0854	-0.1397	-$716.84	$8,874
baseline	secondary	FAIL	428	9	292	66%	-0.0820	-0.0860	-0.0263	-$675.34	$8,239
h1	secondary	FAIL	340	8	262	74%	-0.0111	-0.0137	-0.0418	-$138.03	$12,491
h2	secondary	FAIL	322	9	240	71%	-0.0569	-0.0614	-0.0426	-$470.52	$8,272
h4	secondary	FAIL	452	10	238	66%	-0.1073	-0.1119	-0.0155	-$795.27	$7,414
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions46 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$10.93	0.186	0.814
baseline	ATL	2026-07-23	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$6.65	0.318	0.682
baseline	CHI	2026-07-23	74-75°F	NO	0.900	$10.93	0.026	0.974
baseline	DAL	2026-07-23	96-97°F	NO	0.880	$10.93	0.062	0.938
baseline	DAL	2026-07-23	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$10.93	0.167	0.833
baseline	DAL	2026-07-23	100-101°F	NO	0.620	$6.54	0.301	0.699
baseline	DEN	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$10.93	0.161	0.839
baseline	LAX	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.920	$10.93	0.029	0.971
baseline	MIA	2026-07-23	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$8.67	0.311	0.689
h1	ATL	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$38.82	0.186	0.814
h1	CHI	2026-07-23	74-75°F	NO	0.900	$38.82	0.026	0.974
h1	DAL	2026-07-23	96-97°F	NO	0.880	$38.82	0.062	0.938
h1	DAL	2026-07-23	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$38.82	0.167	0.833
h1	DEN	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$38.82	0.161	0.839
h1	LAX	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.920	$38.82	0.029	0.971
h1	NYC	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$38.82	0.084	0.916
h1	SEA	2026-07-23	74-75°F	NO	0.800	$38.82	0.061	0.939
h2	CHI	2026-07-23	74-75°F	NO	0.900	$17.81	0.026	0.974
h2	DAL	2026-07-23	96-97°F	NO	0.880	$17.81	0.062	0.938
h2	DAL	2026-07-23	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$17.81	0.167	0.833
h2	DAL	2026-07-23	100-101°F	NO	0.620	$10.66	0.301	0.699
h2	DEN	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$17.81	0.161	0.839
h2	LAX	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.920	$17.81	0.029	0.971
h2	MIA	2026-07-23	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$15.05	0.311	0.689
h2	MIA	2026-07-23	92-93°F	NO	0.530	$13.71	0.372	0.628
h2	NYC	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$14.00	0.084	0.916
h3	ATL	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$9.02	0.186	0.814
h3	ATL	2026-07-23	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$5.49	0.318	0.682
h3	CHI	2026-07-23	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$9.02	0.076	0.924
h3	CHI	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$9.02	0.198	0.802
h3	DAL	2026-07-23	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$9.02	0.167	0.833
h3	DAL	2026-07-23	100-101°F	NO	0.620	$5.40	0.301	0.699
h3	DEN	2026-07-23	86-87°F	NO	0.610	$2.65	0.347	0.653
h3	DEN	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$9.02	0.161	0.839
h3	LAX	2026-07-23	80-81°F	NO	0.660	$9.02	0.074	0.926
h3	LAX	2026-07-23	82-83°F	NO	0.570	$4.50	0.172	0.828
h4	ATL	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$6.65	0.186	0.814
h4	ATL	2026-07-23	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$4.05	0.318	0.682
h4	CHI	2026-07-23	74-75°F	NO	0.900	$6.65	0.026	0.974
h4	CHI	2026-07-23	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$6.65	0.076	0.924
h4	CHI	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$6.65	0.198	0.802
h4	DAL	2026-07-23	96-97°F	NO	0.880	$6.65	0.062	0.938
h4	DAL	2026-07-23	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$6.65	0.167	0.833
h4	DAL	2026-07-23	100-101°F	NO	0.620	$3.98	0.301	0.699
h4	DEN	2026-07-23	86-87°F	NO	0.610	$1.96	0.347	0.653
h4	DEN	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$3.32	0.161	0.839

Settlements2265 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-07-22	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$11.37	-$11.44	LOSS	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-22	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$11.37	$9.55	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-22	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$34.34	-$34.53	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-22	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$18.58	-$18.68	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-22	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$18.58	$15.61	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-22	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$9.49	$7.98	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-22	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$6.74	-$6.78	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-22	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$6.74	$5.67	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-22	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$11.37	$3.52	WIN	74°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-22	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$11.37	$9.55	WIN	74°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-22	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$34.34	$10.64	WIN	74°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-22	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$18.58	$5.75	WIN	74°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-22	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$18.58	$15.61	WIN	74°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-22	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$9.49	$7.98	WIN	74°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-22	68-69°F	NO	0.926	$6.74	$0.53	WIN	74°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-22	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$6.74	$2.09	WIN	74°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-22	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$6.74	$5.67	WIN	74°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-22	102-103°F	NO	0.850	$11.37	$1.96	WIN	108°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-22	102-103°F	NO	0.850	$34.34	$5.93	WIN	108°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-22	102-103°F	NO	0.850	$18.58	$3.21	WIN	108°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-22	104-105°F	NO	0.610	$9.49	$5.98	WIN	108°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-22	106-107°F	NO	0.660	$2.54	$1.29	WIN	108°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-22	102-103°F	NO	0.850	$6.74	$1.16	WIN	108°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-22	104-105°F	NO	0.610	$6.74	$4.25	WIN	108°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-22	106-107°F	NO	0.660	$1.80	$0.91	WIN	108°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-22	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$10.30	$7.98	WIN	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-22	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$16.82	$13.03	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-22	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$8.60	$6.66	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-22	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$4.94	$3.83	WIN	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-22	76-77°F	NO	0.710	$11.37	-$11.45	LOSS	76°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-22	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$11.37	$5.76	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-22	76-77°F	NO	0.710	$34.34	-$34.58	LOSS	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-22	76-77°F	NO	0.710	$18.58	-$18.71	LOSS	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-22	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$18.58	$9.41	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-22	76-77°F	NO	0.710	$9.49	-$9.56	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-22	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$9.49	$4.81	WIN	76°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-22	92-93°F	NO	0.460	$1.07	-$1.09	LOSS	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-22	92-93°F	NO	0.460	$1.75	-$1.78	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-22	90-91°F	NO	0.670	$5.65	$2.74	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-22	92-93°F	NO	0.460	$5.03	-$5.10	LOSS	92°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-22	94-95°F	NO	0.770	$34.34	-$34.53	LOSS	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-22	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$6.66	$3.38	WIN	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$9.42	-$9.52	LOSS	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$10.26	$4.97	WIN	90°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$15.32	-$15.48	LOSS	90°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$16.67	$8.07	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$7.40	-$7.48	LOSS	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$8.06	$3.90	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$5.22	-$5.28	LOSS	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$5.69	$2.75	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-21	84-85°F	NO	0.570	$6.79	$5.05	WIN	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-21	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$12.14	-$12.22	LOSS	86°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-21	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$36.84	-$37.08	LOSS	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-21	84-85°F	NO	0.570	$5.34	$3.97	WIN	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-21	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$9.54	-$9.60	LOSS	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-21	84-85°F	NO	0.570	$3.77	$2.80	WIN	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-21	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$6.73	-$6.77	LOSS	86°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-21	102-103°F	NO	0.760	$12.14	$3.76	WIN	106°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-21	102-103°F	NO	0.760	$36.84	$11.41	WIN	106°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-21	102-103°F	NO	0.760	$19.72	$6.11	WIN	106°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-21	104-105°F	NO	0.600	$9.54	$6.26	WIN	106°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-21	102-103°F	NO	0.760	$6.73	$2.08	WIN	106°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-21	104-105°F	NO	0.600	$6.73	$4.42	WIN	106°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-21	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$12.14	$5.88	WIN	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-21	96-97°F	NO	0.900	$12.14	-$12.17	LOSS	96°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-21	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$36.84	$17.84	WIN	96°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-21	96-97°F	NO	0.900	$36.84	-$36.94	LOSS	96°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-21	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$19.72	$9.55	WIN	96°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-21	96-97°F	NO	0.900	$19.72	-$19.77	LOSS	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$1.83	$1.10	WIN	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-21	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$9.54	$4.62	WIN	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-21	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$6.73	$3.26	WIN	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-21	96-97°F	NO	0.900	$6.73	-$6.75	LOSS	96°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$12.14	-$12.22	LOSS	90°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.460	$9.94	$11.53	WIN	90°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$36.84	-$37.09	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$5.98	-$6.02	LOSS	90°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-21	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$36.84	$8.47	WIN	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-21	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$36.84	$18.67	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-21	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$19.72	$4.53	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-21	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$19.72	$9.99	WIN	82°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.640	$36.84	$20.39	WIN	92°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-21	78-79°F	NO	0.750	$9.54	$3.12	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-21	80-81°F	NO	0.510	$9.54	-$9.65	LOSS	80°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-21	78-79°F	NO	0.750	$5.51	$1.80	WIN	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$11.46	-$11.58	LOSS	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$18.08	-$18.27	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$9.18	-$9.28	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$5.39	$1.01	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$6.89	-$6.97	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$11.46	-$11.49	LOSS	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$11.46	$4.38	WIN	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$37.47	-$37.59	LOSS	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$37.47	$14.31	WIN	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$18.08	-$18.13	LOSS	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-20	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$9.18	$4.05	WIN	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$9.18	$3.51	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$6.89	-$6.91	LOSS	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-20	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$6.89	$3.04	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$6.89	$2.63	WIN	82°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$11.46	$2.46	WIN	102°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$37.47	$8.06	WIN	102°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$18.08	$3.89	WIN	102°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.530	$9.18	$8.03	WIN	102°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$6.89	$1.48	WIN	102°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.530	$6.89	$6.03	WIN	102°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$6.51	$5.25	WIN	100°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$10.28	$8.29	WIN	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$5.22	$4.21	WIN	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$9.18	-$9.27	LOSS	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$3.92	$3.16	WIN	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$4.48	-$4.52	LOSS	100°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-20	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$11.46	$2.81	WIN	80°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-20	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$37.47	$9.18	WIN	80°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-20	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$18.08	$4.43	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$9.18	$5.08	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-20	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$7.28	-$7.33	LOSS	80°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$11.46	$5.80	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.500	$8.83	-$8.94	LOSS	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$37.47	$18.99	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$5.86	$2.97	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.830	$7.57	$1.52	WIN	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.830	$37.47	$7.52	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.830	$18.08	$3.63	WIN	82°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-20	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$15.22	$8.06	WIN	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-19	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$7.19	$4.53	WIN	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$12.10	$4.17	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$32.06	$11.06	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-19	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$6.36	$4.00	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$10.70	$3.69	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-19	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$4.29	$2.70	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$7.22	$2.49	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$12.10	-$12.17	LOSS	78°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$9.70	$8.15	WIN	78°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$32.06	-$32.25	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$19.77	-$19.89	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$15.85	$13.32	WIN	78°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$8.58	$7.21	WIN	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$7.22	-$7.26	LOSS	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$5.79	$4.86	WIN	78°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$12.10	$4.85	WIN	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$12.10	-$12.22	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$32.06	$12.86	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$19.77	$7.93	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$19.77	-$19.98	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$10.70	$4.29	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$10.70	-$10.81	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$7.22	$2.90	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$7.22	-$7.30	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$6.12	$4.19	WIN	98°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$9.99	$6.84	WIN	98°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$5.41	$3.70	WIN	98°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.600	$10.70	-$10.81	LOSS	98°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$3.65	$2.50	WIN	98°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.600	$7.22	-$7.29	LOSS	98°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$12.10	$1.93	WIN	76°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$12.10	$6.13	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$32.06	$5.11	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$32.06	$16.24	WIN	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$19.77	$3.15	WIN	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$19.77	$10.02	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-19	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$10.70	-$10.80	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$10.70	$5.42	WIN	76°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$7.22	$1.15	WIN	76°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-19	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$1.20	-$1.21	LOSS	90°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-19	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$32.06	-$32.30	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-19	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$1.06	-$1.07	LOSS	90°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$32.06	-$32.25	LOSS	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$19.77	-$19.89	LOSS	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-19	82-83°F	NO	0.610	$13.71	$8.63	WIN	80°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$32.06	$6.89	WIN	78°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.590	$9.36	-$9.45	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.720	$6.59	$2.52	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.590	$7.39	-$7.47	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.590	$5.39	-$5.44	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$12.95	$2.98	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$11.93	-$12.01	LOSS	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$40.44	$9.29	WIN	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$37.26	-$37.53	LOSS	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$20.85	$4.79	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-18	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$10.23	$5.66	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$9.42	-$9.49	LOSS	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	82-83°F	NO	0.991	$7.46	$0.07	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	84-85°F	NO	0.970	$7.46	$0.23	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$7.46	$1.71	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$7.46	$4.13	WIN	90°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$12.95	$5.72	WIN	96°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$10.39	-$10.49	LOSS	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$40.44	$17.86	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$10.23	$4.52	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$8.21	-$8.29	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$7.46	$3.29	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$5.98	-$6.04	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$12.95	$1.93	WIN	94°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$40.44	$6.02	WIN	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$20.85	$3.10	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.430	$10.23	-$10.38	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.430	$7.46	-$7.56	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$3.54	$0.53	WIN	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-18	74-75°F	NO	0.850	$12.95	$2.24	WIN	78°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	51/30	yes
CHI	50/30	yes
DAL	50/30	yes
DEN	51/30	yes
LAX	51/30	yes
MIA	51/30	yes
NYC	50/30	yes
SEA	37/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$3,776.06.