Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated 26 min agoPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-31254 decisions20:30:06 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-06-02: 8 decision snapshots, 85 new decision rows, opened 33 positions {'baseline': 5, 'h1': 4, 'h2': 3, 'h3': 6, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 6}
settle▸ [settle] settled 36, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-06-02T20:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 25 snapshots written
rendered 2026-06-02 20:30:06 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$300.31

Primary book h3

INCONCLUSIVE

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 68 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	INCONCLUSIVE	11	6	8	64%	+0.0069	-0.0773	-0.1220	$2.82	$411
baseline	secondary	INCONCLUSIVE	13	5	10	62%	-0.0811	-0.1518	+0.1048	-$41.92	$517
h1	secondary	INCONCLUSIVE	10	4	8	70%	+0.0677	-0.0025	+0.0251	$28.00	$414
h2	secondary	INCONCLUSIVE	6	3	6	50%	-0.3658	-0.5010	-0.5635	-$101.48	$277
h4	secondary	INCONCLUSIVE	18	9	13	50%	-0.1763	-0.2460	+0.1829	-$104.10	$591
yes_diag	diagnostic	INCONCLUSIVE	10	6	7	10%	-0.2924	-1.0177	-1.3862	-$83.64	$286

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions33 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.750	$47.90	0.189	0.811
baseline	MIA	2026-06-03	85°F or below	NO	0.070	$16.36	0.865	0.135
baseline	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$47.90	0.122	0.878
baseline	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$47.90	0.258	0.742
baseline	SEA	2026-06-03	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$47.90	0.054	0.946
h1	ATL	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.750	$51.40	0.189	0.811
h1	MIA	2026-06-03	85°F or below	NO	0.070	$17.56	0.865	0.135
h1	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$51.40	0.122	0.878
h1	SEA	2026-06-03	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$51.40	0.054	0.946
h2	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$44.93	0.122	0.878
h2	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$44.93	0.258	0.742
h2	SEA	2026-06-03	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$44.93	0.054	0.946
h3	ATL	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.750	$50.14	0.189	0.811
h3	DAL	2026-06-03	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$19.18	0.272	0.728
h3	LAX	2026-06-03	68-69°F	NO	0.710	$50.14	0.082	0.918
h3	LAX	2026-06-03	70-71°F	NO	0.600	$50.14	0.185	0.815
h3	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$50.14	0.258	0.742
h3	NYC	2026-06-03	82-83°F	NO	0.700	$4.31	0.288	0.712
h4	CHI	2026-06-03	74°F or higher	NO	0.009	$7.72	0.957	0.043
h4	DEN	2026-06-03	78°F or higher	NO	0.041	$8.82	0.920	0.080
h4	LAX	2026-06-03	68-69°F	NO	0.710	$44.80	0.082	0.918
h4	LAX	2026-06-03	70-71°F	NO	0.600	$44.80	0.185	0.815
h4	MIA	2026-06-03	85°F or below	NO	0.070	$15.30	0.865	0.135
h4	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$44.80	0.122	0.878
h4	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$44.80	0.258	0.742
h4	SEA	2026-06-03	62-63°F	NO	0.968	$44.80	0.015	0.985
h4	SEA	2026-06-03	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$44.80	0.054	0.946
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-03	72-73°F	YES	0.180	$19.97	0.276	0.276
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-03	74-75°F	YES	0.040	$42.48	0.219	0.219
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-03	76°F or higher	YES	0.020	$36.60	0.177	0.177
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-03	84-85°F	YES	0.060	$23.61	0.158	0.158
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-03	86°F or higher	YES	0.013	$19.26	0.096	0.096
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-03	66°F or higher	YES	0.820	$45.82	0.897	0.897

Settlements68 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	CHI	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$34.87	-$35.20	LOSS	72°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$42.47	-$42.87	LOSS	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$42.13	-$42.53	LOSS	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$33.86	-$34.19	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-01	74-75°F	YES	0.230	$13.46	-$13.72	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-01	76°F or higher	YES	0.160	$16.46	-$16.81	LOSS	72°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-01	94°F or higher	NO	0.170	$13.11	-$13.38	LOSS	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-01	94°F or higher	NO	0.170	$14.07	-$14.36	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-01	94°F or higher	NO	0.170	$12.73	-$13.00	LOSS	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$34.87	$13.32	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$37.43	$14.29	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$42.47	$16.22	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$42.13	-$42.44	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$42.13	$16.09	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$33.86	-$34.11	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$33.86	$12.93	WIN	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$34.87	$25.93	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-01	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$34.87	-$35.04	LOSS	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$37.43	$27.83	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-01	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$37.43	-$37.61	LOSS	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-01	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$42.47	-$42.68	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$42.13	$31.33	WIN	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$33.86	$25.18	WIN	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-01	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$33.86	-$34.03	LOSS	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-01	94-95°F	NO	0.950	$33.86	$1.74	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-01	86-87°F	YES	0.036	$32.40	-$33.18	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-01	88-89°F	YES	0.260	$33.26	-$33.88	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.700	$34.87	$14.68	WIN	68°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$29.08	$16.81	WIN	68°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.700	$37.43	$15.76	WIN	68°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.700	$42.13	$17.74	WIN	68°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$35.14	$20.31	WIN	68°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.700	$33.86	$14.26	WIN	68°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$17.41	$10.06	WIN	68°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-01	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$8.95	$4.53	WIN	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-01	76°F or higher	NO	0.040	$3.73	-$3.82	LOSS	76°F
baseline	ATL	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.820	$50.00	$10.75	WIN	74°F
h1	ATL	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.820	$50.00	$10.75	WIN	74°F
h2	ATL	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.820	$50.00	$10.75	WIN	74°F
h3	ATL	2026-05-31	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$33.90	-$34.16	LOSS	74°F
h4	ATL	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.820	$50.00	$10.75	WIN	74°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-05-31	76°F or higher	YES	0.430	$29.19	-$29.60	LOSS	74°F
baseline	DEN	2026-05-31	78°F or higher	NO	0.100	$50.00	-$51.12	LOSS	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-05-31	78°F or higher	NO	0.100	$50.00	-$51.12	LOSS	78°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-05-31	76-77°F	YES	0.080	$28.36	-$29.02	LOSS	78°F
baseline	LAX	2026-05-31	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$50.00	-$50.20	LOSS	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-05-31	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$50.00	-$50.20	LOSS	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-05-31	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$50.00	-$50.20	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-05-31	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$50.00	-$50.20	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-05-31	72°F or higher	YES	0.830	$50.00	-$50.21	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-05-31	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$50.00	$25.33	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-05-31	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$50.00	$25.33	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-05-31	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$50.00	$25.33	WIN	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-05-31	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$50.00	$25.33	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-05-31	92-93°F	YES	0.130	$26.98	$179.97	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.870	$50.00	$7.31	WIN	76°F
baseline	NYC	2026-05-31	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$50.00	$28.90	WIN	76°F
h1	NYC	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.870	$50.00	$7.31	WIN	76°F
h1	NYC	2026-05-31	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$50.00	$28.90	WIN	76°F
h2	NYC	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.870	$50.00	$7.31	WIN	76°F
h3	NYC	2026-05-31	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$50.00	$28.90	WIN	76°F
h3	NYC	2026-05-31	76-77°F	NO	0.650	$22.10	-$22.29	LOSS	76°F
h4	NYC	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.870	$50.00	$7.31	WIN	76°F
h4	NYC	2026-05-31	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$50.00	$28.90	WIN	76°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-05-31	78-79°F	YES	0.110	$34.37	-$35.14	LOSS	76°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-05-31	80-81°F	YES	0.017	$21.53	-$22.06	LOSS	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-05-31	66°F or higher	NO	0.004	$9.84	-$10.08	LOSS	66°F
h4	DAL	2026-05-31	92°F or higher	NO	0.130	$9.80	-$10.02	LOSS	92°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	2/30	no
CHI	2/30	no
DAL	2/30	no
DEN	2/30	no
LAX	2/30	no
MIA	2/30	no
NYC	2/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$300.31.