Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated 28 min agoPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-315413 decisions20:30:07 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-08-01: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 36 positions {'baseline': 8, 'h1': 6, 'h2': 4, 'h3': 9, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 41, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-08-01T20:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-08-01 20:30:07 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

2636

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$4,280.18

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 2636 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	552	20	379	60%	-0.0793	-0.0836	-0.1594	-$758.42	$9,561
baseline	secondary	FAIL	502	16	339	66%	-0.0832	-0.0869	-0.0553	-$748.31	$8,995
h1	secondary	FAIL	407	12	309	73%	-0.0279	-0.0303	-0.0724	-$401.52	$14,373
h2	secondary	FAIL	389	8	284	71%	-0.0572	-0.0611	-0.0577	-$543.85	$9,514
h4	secondary	FAIL	530	17	273	65%	-0.1077	-0.1121	-0.0586	-$848.02	$7,875
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions73 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$8.96	0.127	0.873
baseline	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$8.96	0.043	0.957
baseline	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$8.96	0.211	0.789
baseline	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$8.96	0.082	0.918
baseline	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$8.96	0.279	0.721
baseline	MIA	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$8.89	0.268	0.732
baseline	NYC	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$8.96	0.198	0.802
baseline	NYC	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.550	$8.32	0.303	0.697
h1	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$23.20	0.127	0.873
h1	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$23.20	0.043	0.957
h1	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$23.20	0.211	0.789
h1	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$23.20	0.082	0.918
h1	MIA	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$23.01	0.268	0.732
h1	NYC	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$23.20	0.198	0.802
h2	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$16.24	0.127	0.873
h2	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$16.24	0.043	0.957
h2	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$16.24	0.082	0.918
h2	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$16.24	0.279	0.721
h3	ATL	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.710	$1.03	0.279	0.721
h3	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$9.33	0.127	0.873
h3	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$9.33	0.211	0.789
h3	CHI	2026-08-01	72-73°F	NO	0.640	$5.15	0.315	0.685
h3	DAL	2026-08-01	98-99°F	NO	0.430	$9.33	0.208	0.792
h3	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$9.33	0.279	0.721
h3	DEN	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$9.33	0.099	0.901
h3	LAX	2026-08-01	80-81°F	NO	0.500	$9.33	0.050	0.950
h3	MIA	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$1.80	0.398	0.602
h3	MIA	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$9.26	0.268	0.732
h3	NYC	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$1.43	0.198	0.802
h4	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$5.63	0.127	0.873
h4	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$5.63	0.043	0.957
h4	ATL	2026-08-01	90-91°F	NO	0.950	$5.63	0.015	0.985
h4	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$5.63	0.211	0.789
h4	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$5.63	0.082	0.918
h4	DAL	2026-08-01	98-99°F	NO	0.430	$5.63	0.208	0.792
h4	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$5.63	0.279	0.721
h4	DEN	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$5.63	0.099	0.901
baseline	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$9.01	0.211	0.789
baseline	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$9.01	0.165	0.835
baseline	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$5.75	0.303	0.697
baseline	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$9.01	0.253	0.747
baseline	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$9.01	0.202	0.798
baseline	MIA	2026-08-02	90-91°F	NO	0.580	$9.01	0.275	0.725
baseline	NYC	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$9.01	0.085	0.915
baseline	SEA	2026-08-02	68-69°F	NO	0.760	$9.01	0.174	0.826
h1	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$22.93	0.211	0.789
h1	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$22.93	0.165	0.835
h1	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$22.93	0.202	0.798
h1	MIA	2026-08-02	90-91°F	NO	0.580	$22.93	0.275	0.725
h1	NYC	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$22.93	0.085	0.915
h1	SEA	2026-08-02	68-69°F	NO	0.760	$22.93	0.174	0.826
h2	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$19.54	0.165	0.835
h2	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$12.47	0.303	0.697
h2	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$19.54	0.253	0.747
h2	NYC	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$19.54	0.085	0.915
h3	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$8.31	0.211	0.789
h3	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$8.31	0.165	0.835
h3	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$5.30	0.303	0.697
h3	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$8.31	0.253	0.747
h3	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$8.31	0.202	0.798
h3	DEN	2026-08-02	102-103°F	NO	0.640	$8.31	0.062	0.938
h3	LAX	2026-08-02	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$8.31	0.020	0.980
h3	LAX	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.470	$8.31	0.051	0.949
h3	MIA	2026-08-02	90-91°F	NO	0.580	$3.01	0.275	0.725
h4	ATL	2026-08-02	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$5.33	0.080	0.920
h4	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$5.33	0.211	0.789
h4	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$5.33	0.165	0.835
h4	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$3.40	0.303	0.697
h4	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$5.33	0.253	0.747
h4	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$5.33	0.202	0.798
h4	DEN	2026-08-02	102-103°F	NO	0.640	$5.33	0.062	0.938
h4	LAX	2026-08-02	77°F or below	NO	0.960	$5.33	0.017	0.983
h4	LAX	2026-08-02	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$1.93	0.020	0.980

Settlements2636 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$10.10	-$10.18	LOSS	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-31	92-93°F	NO	0.510	$10.10	$9.58	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$26.03	-$26.24	LOSS	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$8.05	-$8.11	LOSS	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-31	92-93°F	NO	0.510	$8.05	$7.63	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$5.72	-$5.77	LOSS	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-31	92-93°F	NO	0.510	$5.72	$5.43	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$10.10	$3.67	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$26.03	$9.45	WIN	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$19.67	$7.14	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-31	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$8.05	-$8.10	LOSS	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$8.05	$2.92	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	77°F or below	NO	0.970	$5.72	$0.17	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$5.72	$1.49	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$5.72	-$5.76	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$5.72	$2.08	WIN	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$10.10	$2.47	WIN	102°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$10.10	-$10.20	LOSS	102°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$26.03	$6.38	WIN	102°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$26.03	-$26.31	LOSS	102°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$19.67	$4.82	WIN	102°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$8.05	-$8.13	LOSS	102°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$5.72	$1.40	WIN	102°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$5.72	-$5.78	LOSS	102°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$10.10	-$10.14	LOSS	90°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$26.03	-$26.15	LOSS	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$19.67	-$19.75	LOSS	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-31	88-89°F	NO	0.530	$8.05	$7.04	WIN	90°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-31	76-77°F	NO	0.790	$10.10	$2.63	WIN	78°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-31	76-77°F	NO	0.790	$26.03	$6.78	WIN	78°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-31	76-77°F	NO	0.790	$19.67	$5.12	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-31	78-79°F	NO	0.570	$8.05	-$8.13	LOSS	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-31	80-81°F	NO	0.740	$4.44	$1.53	WIN	78°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-31	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$7.00	$6.37	WIN	96°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-31	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$3.60	$3.28	WIN	96°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-31	84-85°F	NO	0.590	$3.10	-$3.13	LOSS	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-31	84-85°F	NO	0.590	$19.67	-$19.87	LOSS	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-31	86-87°F	NO	0.650	$19.27	$10.21	WIN	84°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-31	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$26.03	$7.20	WIN	82°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.570	$7.43	-$7.51	LOSS	82°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-31	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$19.67	$5.44	WIN	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$9.76	-$9.80	LOSS	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$24.83	-$24.93	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$21.68	-$21.77	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$8.74	$6.77	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$5.53	-$5.55	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$5.53	$4.28	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$9.76	$2.39	WIN	86°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$24.83	$6.08	WIN	86°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$21.68	$5.31	WIN	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-30	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$8.74	-$8.83	LOSS	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$6.07	$2.56	WIN	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$5.53	$1.35	WIN	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-30	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$5.53	-$5.59	LOSS	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$3.84	$1.62	WIN	86°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$9.76	-$9.82	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$24.83	-$24.98	LOSS	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$21.68	-$21.81	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-30	100-101°F	NO	0.540	$8.74	$7.34	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$5.53	-$5.56	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-30	100-101°F	NO	0.540	$5.53	$4.65	WIN	98°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-30	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$9.76	$1.43	WIN	76°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-30	78-79°F	NO	0.650	$9.76	$5.17	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-30	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$24.83	$3.63	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-30	78-79°F	NO	0.650	$24.83	$13.15	WIN	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-30	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$21.68	$3.17	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-30	76-77°F	NO	0.610	$8.74	-$8.82	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-30	78-79°F	NO	0.650	$8.74	$4.63	WIN	76°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$9.76	$1.55	WIN	96°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$24.83	$3.96	WIN	96°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$21.68	$3.45	WIN	96°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-30	94-95°F	NO	0.480	$8.74	$9.35	WIN	96°F
baseline	SEA	2026-07-30	76-77°F	NO	0.560	$4.98	$3.86	WIN	78°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.470	$8.74	$9.74	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.470	$5.53	$6.16	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-30	94-95°F	NO	0.920	$1.69	-$1.69	LOSS	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-30	76-77°F	NO	0.670	$2.17	-$2.19	LOSS	76°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$10.07	$7.49	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$24.78	$18.42	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$9.57	$7.11	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$6.06	$4.51	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$10.07	$2.47	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$24.78	$6.07	WIN	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$18.20	$4.46	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$9.57	-$9.68	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$6.06	$1.48	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$6.06	-$6.13	LOSS	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-29	100-101°F	NO	0.670	$10.07	$4.88	WIN	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-29	100-101°F	NO	0.670	$24.78	$12.00	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-29	98-99°F	NO	0.670	$9.57	-$9.65	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-29	100-101°F	NO	0.670	$9.57	$4.63	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-29	98-99°F	NO	0.670	$6.06	-$6.11	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-29	100-101°F	NO	0.670	$6.06	$2.93	WIN	98°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-29	94-95°F	NO	0.490	$9.44	-$9.56	LOSS	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-29	94-95°F	NO	0.490	$8.97	-$9.08	LOSS	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-29	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$6.42	$2.10	WIN	94°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$10.07	$2.31	WIN	80°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$10.07	$2.79	WIN	80°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$10.07	-$10.13	LOSS	80°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$24.78	$5.69	WIN	80°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$24.78	$6.85	WIN	80°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$24.78	-$24.92	LOSS	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$18.20	$4.18	WIN	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$18.20	$5.03	WIN	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$18.20	-$18.31	LOSS	80°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$1.60	-$1.62	LOSS	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-29	92-93°F	NO	0.790	$5.16	$1.34	WIN	90°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$9.57	$3.65	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.500	$9.57	-$9.69	LOSS	78°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-29	74-75°F	NO	0.970	$6.06	$0.18	WIN	78°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$6.06	$2.31	WIN	78°F
h3	SEA	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.630	$2.15	$1.24	WIN	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$10.42	-$10.49	LOSS	94°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$10.42	$6.84	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$26.39	-$26.57	LOSS	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$20.12	-$20.26	LOSS	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$20.12	$13.22	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$9.52	-$9.59	LOSS	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$9.52	$6.25	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$6.19	-$6.23	LOSS	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$6.19	$4.07	WIN	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$10.42	-$10.49	LOSS	78°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$10.42	$7.43	WIN	78°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$26.39	-$26.59	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$20.12	-$20.28	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$20.12	$14.36	WIN	78°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$9.52	-$9.59	LOSS	78°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$9.52	$6.79	WIN	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-28	76-77°F	NO	0.930	$6.19	$0.46	WIN	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$6.19	-$6.24	LOSS	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$6.19	$4.42	WIN	78°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-28	98-99°F	NO	0.840	$10.42	-$10.46	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-28	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$10.42	$5.77	WIN	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-28	98-99°F	NO	0.840	$26.39	-$26.50	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-28	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$26.39	$14.61	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-28	98-99°F	NO	0.840	$20.12	-$20.21	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-28	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$9.52	$5.27	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-28	102-103°F	NO	0.670	$1.95	$0.94	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-28	98-99°F	NO	0.840	$6.19	-$6.22	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-28	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$6.19	$3.43	WIN	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-28	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$10.42	-$10.50	LOSS	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-28	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$26.39	-$26.61	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-28	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$9.52	-$9.60	LOSS	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-28	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$6.19	-$6.24	LOSS	92°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-28	76-77°F	NO	0.830	$10.42	$2.09	WIN	78°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-28	76-77°F	NO	0.830	$26.39	$5.29	WIN	78°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$26.39	$10.59	WIN	78°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-28	76-77°F	NO	0.830	$20.12	$4.04	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.520	$9.52	-$9.64	LOSS	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$7.57	$3.04	WIN	78°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-28	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$26.39	$13.98	WIN	88°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-28	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$20.12	$2.94	WIN	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$20.12	$6.94	WIN	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$11.01	$3.60	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$25.76	$8.42	WIN	90°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$20.05	$6.56	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.690	$6.44	$2.84	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$10.08	$3.30	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.690	$4.03	$1.78	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$6.30	$2.06	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-27	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$11.01	-$11.04	LOSS	84°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-27	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$11.01	$2.70	WIN	84°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-27	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$25.76	-$25.83	LOSS	84°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-27	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$25.76	$6.31	WIN	84°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-27	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$20.05	-$20.11	LOSS	84°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-27	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$20.05	$4.91	WIN	84°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-27	88-89°F	NO	0.720	$5.65	$2.16	WIN	84°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-27	82-83°F	NO	0.960	$6.30	$0.26	WIN	84°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-27	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$6.30	-$6.32	LOSS	84°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-27	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$6.30	$1.54	WIN	84°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-27	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$11.01	-$11.07	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-27	100-101°F	NO	0.570	$11.01	$8.19	WIN	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-27	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$25.76	-$25.90	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-27	100-101°F	NO	0.570	$25.76	$19.15	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-27	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$20.05	-$20.16	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-27	100-101°F	NO	0.570	$10.08	$7.50	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-27	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$6.30	-$6.34	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-27	100-101°F	NO	0.570	$6.30	$4.69	WIN	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-27	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$11.01	$2.05	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$11.01	-$11.08	LOSS	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$11.01	$5.09	WIN	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-27	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$25.76	$4.80	WIN	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$25.76	-$25.92	LOSS	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$25.76	$11.91	WIN	92°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-27	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$20.05	$3.74	WIN	92°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$20.05	-$20.18	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$10.08	-$10.14	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$10.08	$4.66	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-27	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$6.30	$1.18	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$2.28	-$2.29	LOSS	92°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-27	76-77°F	NO	0.890	$20.05	$2.42	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-27	78-79°F	NO	0.560	$10.08	-$10.19	LOSS	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-27	80-81°F	NO	0.690	$10.08	$4.45	WIN	78°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.790	$20.05	$5.22	WIN	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-27	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$8.07	-$8.16	LOSS	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$7.70	-$7.79	LOSS	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$12.08	$5.09	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$28.38	$11.95	WIN	90°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$12.71	-$12.85	LOSS	90°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$19.95	$8.40	WIN	90°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	60/30	yes
CHI	59/30	yes
DAL	59/30	yes
DEN	60/30	yes
LAX	60/30	yes
MIA	60/30	yes
NYC	57/30	yes
SEA	42/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$4,280.18.