Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-311458 decisions14:16:28 UTC

decide▸ [decide] no lead-1 decision snapshots under /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-06-17
settle▸ [settle] settled 57, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-06-18T14:00:01Z] forward-collection done: 8 snapshots written
rendered 2026-06-18 14:16:28 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

807

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$1,495.75

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 807 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	147	106	63%	-0.0212	-0.0298	-0.0796	-$83.86	$3,964
baseline	secondary	FAIL	133	94	67%	-0.0496	-0.0579	+0.0029	-$190.21	$3,834
h1	secondary	FAIL	109	85	73%	-0.0108	-0.0186	-0.0244	-$41.91	$3,865
h2	secondary	FAIL	91	72	74%	-0.0164	-0.0259	-0.0498	-$51.53	$3,150
h4	secondary	FAIL	153	87	67%	-0.0788	-0.0875	+0.1092	-$300.16	$3,810
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	174	98	11%	-0.5659	-0.7018	-0.0278	-$828.08	$1,463

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions0 live · awaiting resolution

No open positions right now.

Settlements807 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-06-17	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$26.08	$3.48	WIN	84°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-17	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$26.08	-$26.30	LOSS	84°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-17	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$32.12	$4.28	WIN	84°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-17	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$32.12	-$32.39	LOSS	84°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-17	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$31.78	$4.24	WIN	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-17	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$32.50	-$32.76	LOSS	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-17	80-81°F	NO	0.965	$23.35	$0.83	WIN	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-17	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$23.35	$3.11	WIN	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-17	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$23.35	-$23.55	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-17	88-89°F	YES	0.130	$3.20	-$3.27	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-17	90-91°F	YES	0.039	$1.53	-$1.56	LOSS	84°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-17	64-65°F	NO	0.830	$26.08	$5.23	WIN	70°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-17	66-67°F	NO	0.720	$22.73	$8.68	WIN	70°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-17	64-65°F	NO	0.830	$32.12	$6.44	WIN	70°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-17	66-67°F	NO	0.720	$28.00	$10.69	WIN	70°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-17	64-65°F	NO	0.830	$31.78	$6.37	WIN	70°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-17	66-67°F	NO	0.720	$28.32	$10.82	WIN	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-17	62-63°F	NO	0.920	$23.35	$1.98	WIN	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-17	64-65°F	NO	0.830	$23.35	$4.68	WIN	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-17	66-67°F	NO	0.720	$20.35	$7.77	WIN	70°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-17	68-69°F	YES	0.250	$1.88	-$1.91	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-17	70-71°F	YES	0.090	$3.08	$31.07	WIN	70°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-17	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$26.08	$14.44	WIN	90°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-17	94-95°F	NO	0.760	$26.08	$8.08	WIN	90°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-17	94-95°F	NO	0.760	$32.12	$9.95	WIN	90°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-17	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$31.78	$17.59	WIN	90°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-17	94-95°F	NO	0.760	$31.78	$9.85	WIN	90°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-17	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$32.50	$17.99	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-17	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$23.35	$12.93	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-17	94-95°F	NO	0.760	$23.35	$7.24	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-17	88-89°F	YES	0.030	$3.50	-$3.58	LOSS	90°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-17	90-91°F	YES	0.220	$1.86	$6.57	WIN	90°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-17	94-95°F	NO	0.630	$26.08	$15.08	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-17	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$26.08	$6.39	WIN	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-17	94-95°F	NO	0.630	$32.12	$18.57	WIN	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-17	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$32.12	$7.87	WIN	92°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-17	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$31.78	$7.79	WIN	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-17	94-95°F	NO	0.630	$32.50	$18.78	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-17	94-95°F	NO	0.630	$3.00	$1.74	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-17	90-91°F	YES	0.090	$2.81	-$2.87	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-17	92-93°F	YES	0.240	$3.04	$9.55	WIN	92°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-17	68-69°F	NO	0.810	$3.35	$0.77	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-17	68-69°F	NO	0.810	$32.12	$7.38	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-17	68-69°F	NO	0.810	$31.78	$7.30	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-17	70-71°F	NO	0.450	$32.50	-$32.94	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-17	72-73°F	YES	0.150	$3.48	-$3.56	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-17	74-75°F	YES	0.016	$5.30	-$5.43	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-17	76-77°F	YES	0.009	$2.47	-$2.53	LOSS	70°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-17	74-75°F	NO	0.800	$4.13	$1.01	WIN	76°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-17	74-75°F	NO	0.800	$31.78	$7.79	WIN	76°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-17	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$32.50	-$32.85	LOSS	76°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-17	80-81°F	YES	0.070	$4.06	-$4.15	LOSS	76°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-17	82-83°F	YES	0.014	$1.99	-$2.04	LOSS	76°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-17	78-79°F	YES	0.180	$1.61	-$1.64	LOSS	76°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-17	92-93°F	NO	0.410	$30.42	-$30.87	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-17	94-95°F	YES	0.150	$2.62	-$2.68	LOSS	92°F
h3	SEA	2026-06-17	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$12.12	-$12.22	LOSS	72°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-16	74-75°F	NO	0.670	$20.94	$10.14	WIN	72°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-16	74-75°F	NO	0.670	$25.02	$12.12	WIN	72°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-16	74-75°F	NO	0.670	$27.01	$13.08	WIN	72°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-16	74-75°F	NO	0.670	$19.24	$9.32	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-16	78-79°F	YES	0.080	$1.49	-$1.53	LOSS	72°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.890	$25.10	$3.03	WIN	76°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.690	$25.10	$11.08	WIN	76°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.890	$29.75	$3.59	WIN	76°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.690	$29.75	$13.13	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.890	$29.99	$3.62	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.690	$29.99	$13.24	WIN	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-16	74-75°F	NO	0.680	$18.97	$8.77	WIN	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.690	$32.38	$14.30	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-16	74-75°F	NO	0.680	$13.51	$6.25	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.890	$23.07	$2.79	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.690	$23.07	$10.18	WIN	76°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-16	76-77°F	YES	0.110	$3.65	$29.48	WIN	76°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-16	78-79°F	YES	0.040	$1.98	-$2.03	LOSS	76°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-16	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$25.10	$12.72	WIN	88°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-16	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$29.75	$15.07	WIN	88°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-16	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$13.76	-$13.88	LOSS	88°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-16	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$32.38	$16.41	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-16	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$9.80	-$9.89	LOSS	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-16	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$23.07	$11.69	WIN	88°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-16	86-87°F	YES	0.130	$1.31	-$1.34	LOSS	88°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-16	92-93°F	NO	0.760	$25.10	$7.78	WIN	94°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-16	92-93°F	NO	0.760	$29.75	$9.22	WIN	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-16	92-93°F	NO	0.760	$29.99	$9.29	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-16	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$32.38	$18.72	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-16	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$23.07	$13.33	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-16	92-93°F	NO	0.760	$23.07	$7.15	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-16	94-95°F	NO	0.957	$23.07	-$23.09	LOSS	94°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-16	84-85°F	YES	0.024	$1.31	-$1.34	LOSS	94°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-16	86-87°F	YES	0.100	$3.44	-$3.52	LOSS	94°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-16	88-89°F	YES	0.200	$1.72	-$1.75	LOSS	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$20.65	$12.46	WIN	68°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$32.38	$23.11	WIN	68°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$26.63	$16.07	WIN	68°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$3.58	$2.55	WIN	68°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-16	74-75°F	YES	0.050	$3.23	-$3.31	LOSS	68°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-16	76-77°F	YES	0.022	$1.53	-$1.57	LOSS	68°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-16	92-93°F	NO	0.550	$10.48	$8.46	WIN	94°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-16	92-93°F	NO	0.550	$12.52	$10.10	WIN	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-16	90-91°F	NO	0.670	$14.29	$6.92	WIN	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-16	92-93°F	NO	0.550	$13.52	$10.91	WIN	94°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-16	76-77°F	NO	0.760	$25.10	$7.78	WIN	78°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-16	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$23.24	-$23.49	LOSS	78°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-16	76-77°F	NO	0.760	$29.75	$9.22	WIN	78°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-16	76-77°F	NO	0.760	$29.99	$9.29	WIN	78°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-16	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$29.99	-$30.30	LOSS	78°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-16	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$15.35	-$15.51	LOSS	78°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-16	82-83°F	YES	0.040	$2.27	-$2.33	LOSS	78°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-16	84-85°F	YES	0.005	$1.01	-$1.04	LOSS	78°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$29.75	$5.55	WIN	76°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.640	$29.75	$16.46	WIN	76°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$29.99	$5.59	WIN	76°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-16	74-75°F	YES	0.290	$2.01	-$2.04	LOSS	76°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-16	76-77°F	YES	0.100	$2.07	$18.55	WIN	76°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-15	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$26.16	$13.26	WIN	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-15	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$26.16	$5.25	WIN	80°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-15	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$30.47	$6.11	WIN	80°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-15	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$36.90	$18.70	WIN	80°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-15	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$36.90	$7.40	WIN	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-15	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$29.08	$14.73	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-15	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$24.17	$12.24	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-15	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$24.17	$4.85	WIN	80°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-15	80-81°F	YES	0.090	$1.69	$17.04	WIN	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-15	74-75°F	NO	0.710	$26.16	$10.50	WIN	76°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-15	74-75°F	NO	0.710	$30.47	$12.23	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-15	74-75°F	NO	0.710	$36.90	$14.81	WIN	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-15	74-75°F	NO	0.710	$29.08	$11.67	WIN	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-15	76-77°F	NO	0.670	$7.68	-$7.74	LOSS	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-15	72-73°F	NO	0.900	$24.17	$2.62	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-15	74-75°F	NO	0.710	$24.17	$9.70	WIN	76°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-15	78-79°F	YES	0.180	$1.85	-$1.89	LOSS	76°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-15	80-81°F	YES	0.052	$1.29	-$1.32	LOSS	76°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$26.16	$12.10	WIN	86°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$30.47	$14.10	WIN	86°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$29.08	$13.45	WIN	86°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$24.17	$11.18	WIN	86°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$26.16	-$26.41	LOSS	80°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-15	82-83°F	NO	0.823	$26.16	$5.51	WIN	80°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$30.47	-$30.76	LOSS	80°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-15	82-83°F	NO	0.823	$30.47	$6.42	WIN	80°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-15	82-83°F	NO	0.823	$36.90	$7.77	WIN	80°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$29.08	-$29.35	LOSS	80°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$24.17	-$24.39	LOSS	80°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-15	82-83°F	NO	0.823	$24.17	$5.09	WIN	80°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-15	76-77°F	YES	0.090	$2.17	-$2.22	LOSS	80°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-15	78-79°F	YES	0.240	$2.47	-$2.52	LOSS	80°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-15	70-71°F	NO	0.690	$26.16	-$26.37	LOSS	70°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-15	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$26.16	$17.18	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-15	70-71°F	NO	0.690	$30.47	-$30.71	LOSS	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-15	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$30.47	$20.01	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-15	70-71°F	NO	0.690	$36.90	-$37.19	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-15	70-71°F	NO	0.690	$29.08	-$29.30	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-15	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$29.08	$19.09	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-15	70-71°F	NO	0.690	$24.17	-$24.35	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-15	74-75°F	YES	0.100	$1.95	-$1.99	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-15	76-77°F	YES	0.040	$2.66	-$2.73	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-15	78-79°F	YES	0.010	$1.25	-$1.28	LOSS	70°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$30.47	$14.10	WIN	74°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-15	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$27.75	$14.06	WIN	74°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-15	82-83°F	YES	0.209	$1.40	-$1.43	LOSS	74°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-15	84-85°F	YES	0.065	$2.39	-$2.44	LOSS	74°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-15	86-87°F	YES	0.008	$1.22	-$1.25	LOSS	74°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-15	90-91°F	NO	0.500	$28.84	$28.48	WIN	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-15	90-91°F	NO	0.500	$22.72	$22.44	WIN	94°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-15	94-95°F	YES	0.030	$1.24	$40.16	WIN	94°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-15	92-93°F	YES	0.098	$1.81	-$1.85	LOSS	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$21.30	$7.73	WIN	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-14	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$20.16	-$20.36	LOSS	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$24.68	$8.96	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$25.49	$9.25	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-14	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$24.12	-$24.36	LOSS	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$20.64	$7.49	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-14	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$19.53	-$19.72	LOSS	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$24.59	$9.87	WIN	68°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$28.49	$11.43	WIN	68°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$29.42	$11.80	WIN	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$23.82	$9.56	WIN	68°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-14	74-75°F	YES	0.150	$2.15	-$2.20	LOSS	68°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-14	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$24.59	-$24.64	LOSS	84°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$24.59	$4.93	WIN	84°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$24.59	$8.93	WIN	84°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-14	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$28.49	-$28.56	LOSS	84°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$28.49	$5.72	WIN	84°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$28.49	$10.35	WIN	84°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-14	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$29.96	-$30.02	LOSS	84°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$29.96	$6.01	WIN	84°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$29.42	$10.68	WIN	84°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-14	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$23.82	-$23.88	LOSS	84°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$23.82	$4.78	WIN	84°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$23.82	$8.65	WIN	84°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-14	90-91°F	YES	0.230	$1.23	-$1.25	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-14	92-93°F	YES	0.119	$3.16	-$3.23	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-14	94-95°F	YES	0.036	$1.60	-$1.64	LOSS	84°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$24.59	-$24.68	LOSS	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$28.49	-$28.60	LOSS	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$29.96	-$30.07	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-14	72-73°F	NO	0.570	$29.42	$21.88	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-14	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$8.27	$3.48	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$7.48	-$7.50	LOSS	70°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	17/30	no
CHI	16/30	no
DAL	17/30	no
DEN	17/30	no
LAX	17/30	no
MIA	17/30	no
NYC	16/30	no
SEA	13/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$1,495.75.