Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-312250 decisions14:02:22 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-06-26: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 44 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 5, 'h2': 4, 'h3': 11, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 6}
settle▸ [settle] settled 44, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-06-27T14:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-06-27 14:02:22 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

1190

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$2,625.02

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 1190 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	221	11	162	62%	-0.0544	-0.0614	-0.0736	-$309.88	$5,693
baseline	secondary	FAIL	201	9	139	65%	-0.0860	-0.0921	-0.0102	-$463.39	$5,391
h1	secondary	FAIL	161	5	125	75%	-0.0026	-0.0077	-0.0344	-$15.07	$5,726
h2	secondary	FAIL	146	4	111	69%	-0.0767	-0.0847	-0.0482	-$366.86	$4,780
h4	secondary	FAIL	224	9	124	67%	-0.0984	-0.1049	+0.0699	-$516.51	$5,249
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	237	6	140	9%	-0.5900	-0.7133	-0.0936	-$953.31	$1,616

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions44 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$21.94	0.228	0.772
baseline	CHI	2026-06-27	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$21.94	0.131	0.869
baseline	CHI	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$21.94	0.278	0.722
baseline	DEN	2026-06-27	96-97°F	NO	0.860	$21.94	0.031	0.969
baseline	LAX	2026-06-27	72-73°F	NO	0.610	$21.94	0.259	0.741
baseline	MIA	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.470	$11.58	0.393	0.607
baseline	NYC	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$21.94	0.215	0.785
baseline	NYC	2026-06-27	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$15.50	0.304	0.696
baseline	SEA	2026-06-27	64-65°F	NO	0.750	$16.81	0.172	0.828
h1	ATL	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$40.44	0.228	0.772
h1	CHI	2026-06-27	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$40.44	0.131	0.869
h1	DEN	2026-06-27	96-97°F	NO	0.860	$40.44	0.031	0.969
h1	NYC	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$40.44	0.215	0.785
h1	SEA	2026-06-27	64-65°F	NO	0.750	$40.44	0.172	0.828
h2	CHI	2026-06-27	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$27.20	0.131	0.869
h2	CHI	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$27.20	0.278	0.722
h2	DEN	2026-06-27	96-97°F	NO	0.860	$27.20	0.031	0.969
h2	LAX	2026-06-27	72-73°F	NO	0.610	$27.20	0.259	0.741
h3	ATL	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$28.30	0.228	0.772
h3	CHI	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$28.30	0.278	0.722
h3	DAL	2026-06-27	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$6.82	0.303	0.697
h3	DEN	2026-06-27	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$13.84	0.293	0.707
h3	DEN	2026-06-27	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$28.30	0.108	0.892
h3	LAX	2026-06-27	70-71°F	NO	0.600	$28.30	0.146	0.854
h3	LAX	2026-06-27	72-73°F	NO	0.610	$28.30	0.259	0.741
h3	MIA	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.470	$14.93	0.393	0.607
h3	NYC	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$28.30	0.215	0.785
h3	NYC	2026-06-27	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$19.99	0.304	0.696
h3	SEA	2026-06-27	64-65°F	NO	0.750	$1.02	0.172	0.828
h4	ATL	2026-06-27	88-89°F	NO	0.890	$16.49	0.089	0.911
h4	ATL	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$19.20	0.228	0.772
h4	CHI	2026-06-27	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$19.20	0.131	0.869
h4	CHI	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$19.20	0.278	0.722
h4	DAL	2026-06-27	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$4.63	0.303	0.697
h4	DEN	2026-06-27	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$19.20	0.108	0.892
h4	DEN	2026-06-27	96-97°F	NO	0.860	$19.20	0.031	0.969
h4	LAX	2026-06-27	70-71°F	NO	0.600	$19.20	0.146	0.854
h4	LAX	2026-06-27	72-73°F	NO	0.610	$17.29	0.259	0.741
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-27	94-95°F	YES	0.091	$1.36	0.199	0.199
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-27	88-89°F	YES	0.037	$1.34	0.148	0.148
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-27	90-91°F	YES	0.200	$1.54	0.338	0.338
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-27	74-75°F	YES	0.107	$1.91	0.255	0.255
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-27	76-77°F	YES	0.010	$1.54	0.140	0.140
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-27	88-89°F	YES	0.170	$1.50	0.280	0.280

Settlements1190 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$11.63	-$11.74	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-26	86-87°F	NO	0.750	$1.94	$0.63	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$13.96	-$14.09	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$10.32	-$10.42	LOSS	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$22.22	$3.84	WIN	66°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$33.75	$5.83	WIN	66°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$24.36	$4.21	WIN	66°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$19.72	$3.41	WIN	66°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-26	76-77°F	NO	0.972	$19.72	$0.55	WIN	66°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$22.22	-$22.41	LOSS	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$24.36	-$24.58	LOSS	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$26.67	-$26.90	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$19.72	-$19.89	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-26	98-99°F	NO	0.930	$19.72	$1.45	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$22.22	-$22.34	LOSS	88°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$22.22	$2.41	WIN	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$33.75	-$33.94	LOSS	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$33.75	$3.67	WIN	88°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$24.36	-$24.50	LOSS	88°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$24.36	$2.65	WIN	88°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-26	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$13.02	$5.75	WIN	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$19.72	-$19.83	LOSS	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$19.72	$2.14	WIN	88°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$22.22	$8.07	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$33.75	$12.26	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$24.36	$8.85	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-26	70-71°F	NO	0.440	$26.67	-$27.04	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$26.67	$9.68	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-26	70-71°F	NO	0.440	$19.72	-$19.99	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$9.40	$3.41	WIN	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-26	72-73°F	YES	0.110	$1.19	-$1.21	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-26	74-75°F	YES	0.038	$1.04	-$1.07	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$22.22	-$22.46	LOSS	90°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$24.36	-$24.63	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$26.67	-$26.96	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-26	92-93°F	NO	0.600	$11.01	$7.23	WIN	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-26	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$22.22	-$22.30	LOSS	82°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-26	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$10.59	$5.86	WIN	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-26	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$33.75	-$33.89	LOSS	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-26	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$33.75	$18.68	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-26	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$24.36	-$24.46	LOSS	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-26	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$26.67	$14.76	WIN	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-26	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$4.19	$1.94	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-26	88-89°F	YES	0.050	$1.68	-$1.72	LOSS	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$22.02	$9.27	WIN	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-25	84-85°F	NO	0.760	$22.02	$6.82	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$37.49	$15.79	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-25	84-85°F	NO	0.760	$37.49	$11.62	WIN	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$29.00	$12.21	WIN	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-25	84-85°F	NO	0.760	$29.00	$8.99	WIN	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$26.87	$11.31	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	79°F or below	NO	0.983	$20.02	$0.34	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$20.02	$8.43	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	80-81°F	NO	0.983	$20.02	$0.34	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	82-83°F	NO	0.953	$20.02	-$20.04	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-25	90-91°F	YES	0.099	$2.16	-$2.20	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-25	92-93°F	YES	0.020	$1.15	-$1.18	LOSS	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$22.02	$6.45	WIN	78°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.630	$22.02	-$22.22	LOSS	78°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$37.49	$10.98	WIN	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$29.00	$8.50	WIN	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.630	$29.00	-$29.27	LOSS	78°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.630	$26.87	-$27.11	LOSS	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$20.02	$5.86	WIN	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.630	$20.02	-$20.20	LOSS	78°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-25	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$18.05	$8.35	WIN	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-25	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$22.02	$5.40	WIN	92°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-25	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$37.49	$9.19	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-25	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$23.78	$11.00	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-25	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$29.00	$7.11	WIN	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-25	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$22.02	$10.19	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-25	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$16.41	$7.59	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-25	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$20.02	$4.90	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-25	98-99°F	NO	0.941	$3.61	$0.22	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$22.02	-$22.13	LOSS	76°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.890	$22.02	$2.66	WIN	76°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$37.49	-$37.67	LOSS	76°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.890	$37.49	$4.53	WIN	76°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$29.00	-$29.14	LOSS	76°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.890	$29.00	$3.51	WIN	76°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-25	72-73°F	YES	0.200	$1.46	-$1.49	LOSS	76°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-25	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$3.97	$1.52	WIN	72°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-25	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$37.49	$14.32	WIN	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-25	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$5.23	$2.00	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-25	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$26.87	$10.26	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-25	70-71°F	NO	0.570	$26.87	$19.98	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-25	72-73°F	YES	0.120	$2.03	$14.84	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-25	74-75°F	YES	0.020	$2.08	-$2.14	LOSS	72°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-25	80-81°F	NO	0.840	$37.49	$6.99	WIN	84°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-25	82-83°F	NO	0.650	$26.87	$14.23	WIN	84°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-25	84-85°F	NO	0.680	$4.51	-$4.55	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-25	86-87°F	YES	0.059	$1.62	-$1.66	LOSS	84°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-25	90-91°F	NO	0.590	$20.11	-$20.32	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-25	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$9.45	$5.70	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-25	68-69°F	YES	0.280	$1.23	-$1.25	LOSS	64°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$23.02	$11.15	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$34.92	$16.91	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$27.84	$13.48	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-24	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$16.02	-$16.16	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$19.93	$9.65	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$23.02	$3.67	WIN	86°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$34.92	$5.56	WIN	86°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$29.22	$4.65	WIN	86°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.730	$7.96	$2.89	WIN	86°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$19.93	$3.18	WIN	86°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-24	80-81°F	NO	0.940	$19.93	$1.24	WIN	86°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-24	68-69°F	NO	0.889	$23.02	$2.81	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-24	68-69°F	NO	0.889	$34.92	$4.26	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-24	68-69°F	NO	0.889	$29.22	$3.57	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-24	70-71°F	NO	0.520	$27.84	-$28.17	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-24	70-71°F	NO	0.520	$19.93	-$20.17	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-24	74-75°F	YES	0.090	$2.06	-$2.11	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-24	76-77°F	YES	0.010	$1.51	-$1.55	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-24	90-91°F	NO	0.510	$16.15	$15.32	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$23.02	-$23.27	LOSS	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-24	90-91°F	NO	0.510	$20.50	$19.45	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$29.22	-$29.53	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-24	90-91°F	NO	0.510	$19.53	$18.53	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$27.84	-$28.13	LOSS	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-24	90-91°F	NO	0.510	$13.99	$13.27	WIN	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$19.93	-$20.14	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-24	88-89°F	YES	0.060	$1.01	-$1.03	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$23.02	-$23.23	LOSS	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$29.22	-$29.48	LOSS	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$27.84	-$28.09	LOSS	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.710	$1.61	$0.65	WIN	82°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$5.95	-$6.00	LOSS	82°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$23.02	$3.37	WIN	86°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$23.02	$12.74	WIN	86°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$34.92	$5.10	WIN	86°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$34.92	$19.33	WIN	86°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$29.22	$4.27	WIN	86°F
h3	SEA	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$27.84	$15.41	WIN	86°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-24	88-89°F	YES	0.110	$1.16	-$1.19	LOSS	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$27.84	$16.09	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-24	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$1.02	-$1.03	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.920	$19.93	$1.69	WIN	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$19.93	$11.52	WIN	86°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-24	88-89°F	YES	0.158	$1.32	-$1.35	LOSS	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-24	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$5.17	$2.18	WIN	70°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$22.83	-$22.97	LOSS	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$22.83	$13.20	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$33.81	-$34.00	LOSS	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$30.87	-$31.05	LOSS	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$30.87	$17.84	WIN	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$29.07	$16.80	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$20.42	-$20.54	LOSS	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$20.42	$11.80	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-23	88-89°F	YES	0.048	$1.67	-$1.71	LOSS	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$22.83	$11.06	WIN	74°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$33.81	$16.37	WIN	74°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$29.07	$14.08	WIN	74°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-23	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$20.42	$3.53	WIN	74°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$20.42	$9.89	WIN	74°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-23	76-77°F	YES	0.100	$1.20	-$1.23	LOSS	74°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$22.83	$5.95	WIN	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$20.48	-$20.66	LOSS	92°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$33.81	$8.81	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$30.87	$8.04	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$27.69	-$27.93	LOSS	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$26.07	-$26.30	LOSS	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$20.42	$5.32	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$18.32	-$18.48	LOSS	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$22.83	$5.59	WIN	82°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$33.81	$8.28	WIN	82°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$30.87	$7.56	WIN	82°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.710	$7.67	-$7.73	LOSS	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$20.42	$5.00	WIN	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-23	86-87°F	NO	0.950	$20.42	$1.05	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-23	80-81°F	YES	0.230	$1.11	-$1.13	LOSS	82°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$22.83	$4.26	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$33.81	$6.30	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$30.87	$5.76	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-23	70-71°F	NO	0.430	$29.07	-$29.48	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$2.10	$0.39	WIN	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-23	76-77°F	YES	0.009	$1.54	-$1.58	LOSS	70°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$22.83	-$22.94	LOSS	74°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-23	76-77°F	NO	0.660	$2.35	$1.19	WIN	74°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$33.81	-$33.96	LOSS	74°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-23	76-77°F	NO	0.660	$33.81	$17.13	WIN	74°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$30.87	-$31.01	LOSS	74°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-23	76-77°F	NO	0.660	$29.07	$14.73	WIN	74°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-23	80-81°F	YES	0.070	$1.90	-$1.94	LOSS	74°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.460	$29.07	$33.73	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-23	88-89°F	YES	0.060	$1.05	-$1.08	LOSS	90°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-23	90-91°F	YES	0.260	$1.74	$4.93	WIN	90°F
h3	SEA	2026-06-23	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$2.63	$1.59	WIN	88°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-23	84-85°F	YES	0.200	$1.34	-$1.37	LOSS	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$26.13	$11.00	WIN	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$21.06	-$21.25	LOSS	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$33.10	$13.94	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$27.31	$11.50	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$22.01	-$22.20	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$28.60	$12.04	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$23.05	-$23.25	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-22	84-85°F	NO	0.934	$21.43	$1.48	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$21.43	$9.02	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$17.27	-$17.42	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	YES	0.200	$1.77	-$1.81	LOSS	88°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$26.13	$6.40	WIN	94°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	25/30	no
CHI	24/30	no
DAL	24/30	no
DEN	25/30	no
LAX	25/30	no
MIA	25/30	no
NYC	24/30	no
SEA	20/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$2,625.02.