Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated 28 min agoPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-315149 decisions20:30:07 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-07-29: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 36 positions {'baseline': 7, 'h1': 6, 'h2': 5, 'h3': 9, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 41, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-07-29T20:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-07-29 20:30:07 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

2524

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$4,150.72

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 2524 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	524	19	359	60%	-0.0800	-0.0844	-0.1504	-$747.93	$9,351
baseline	secondary	FAIL	479	14	321	66%	-0.0836	-0.0874	-0.0512	-$734.41	$8,781
h1	secondary	FAIL	388	12	294	73%	-0.0255	-0.0279	-0.0692	-$353.67	$13,893
h2	secondary	FAIL	372	9	271	72%	-0.0537	-0.0577	-0.0558	-$493.17	$9,189
h4	secondary	FAIL	505	17	261	66%	-0.1088	-0.1132	-0.0465	-$841.48	$7,737
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions71 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$10.07	0.230	0.770
baseline	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$10.07	0.078	0.922
baseline	DAL	2026-07-29	100-101°F	NO	0.670	$10.07	0.204	0.796
baseline	MIA	2026-07-29	94-95°F	NO	0.490	$9.44	0.409	0.591
baseline	NYC	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$10.07	0.020	0.980
baseline	NYC	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$10.07	0.055	0.945
baseline	NYC	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$10.07	0.148	0.852
h1	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$24.78	0.230	0.770
h1	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$24.78	0.078	0.922
h1	DAL	2026-07-29	100-101°F	NO	0.670	$24.78	0.204	0.796
h1	NYC	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$24.78	0.020	0.980
h1	NYC	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$24.78	0.055	0.945
h1	NYC	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$24.78	0.148	0.852
h2	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$18.20	0.078	0.922
h2	NYC	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$18.20	0.020	0.980
h2	NYC	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$18.20	0.055	0.945
h2	NYC	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$18.20	0.148	0.852
h3	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$9.57	0.230	0.770
h3	CHI	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$9.57	0.203	0.797
h3	DAL	2026-07-29	98-99°F	NO	0.670	$9.57	0.080	0.920
h3	DAL	2026-07-29	100-101°F	NO	0.670	$9.57	0.204	0.796
h3	DEN	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$1.60	0.351	0.649
h3	LAX	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$9.57	0.025	0.975
h3	LAX	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.500	$9.57	0.065	0.935
h3	MIA	2026-07-29	94-95°F	NO	0.490	$8.97	0.409	0.591
h3	MIA	2026-07-29	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$6.42	0.212	0.788
h3	SEA	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.630	$2.15	0.331	0.669
h4	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$6.06	0.230	0.770
h4	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$6.06	0.078	0.922
h4	CHI	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$6.06	0.203	0.797
h4	DAL	2026-07-29	98-99°F	NO	0.670	$6.06	0.080	0.920
h4	DAL	2026-07-29	100-101°F	NO	0.670	$6.06	0.204	0.796
h4	DEN	2026-07-29	92-93°F	NO	0.790	$5.16	0.171	0.829
h4	LAX	2026-07-29	74-75°F	NO	0.970	$6.06	0.010	0.990
h4	LAX	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$6.06	0.025	0.975
baseline	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$9.76	0.094	0.906
baseline	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$9.76	0.038	0.962
baseline	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$9.76	0.077	0.923
baseline	LAX	2026-07-30	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$9.76	0.033	0.967
baseline	LAX	2026-07-30	78-79°F	NO	0.650	$9.76	0.189	0.811
baseline	MIA	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$9.76	0.052	0.948
baseline	SEA	2026-07-30	76-77°F	NO	0.560	$4.98	0.373	0.627
h1	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$24.83	0.094	0.906
h1	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$24.83	0.038	0.962
h1	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$24.83	0.077	0.923
h1	LAX	2026-07-30	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$24.83	0.033	0.967
h1	LAX	2026-07-30	78-79°F	NO	0.650	$24.83	0.189	0.811
h1	MIA	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$24.83	0.052	0.948
h2	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$21.68	0.094	0.906
h2	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$21.68	0.038	0.962
h2	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$21.68	0.077	0.923
h2	LAX	2026-07-30	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$21.68	0.033	0.967
h2	MIA	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$21.68	0.052	0.948
h3	ATL	2026-07-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$8.74	0.236	0.764
h3	CHI	2026-07-30	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$8.74	0.110	0.890
h3	CHI	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$6.07	0.254	0.746
h3	DAL	2026-07-30	100-101°F	NO	0.540	$8.74	0.198	0.802
h3	DEN	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.470	$8.74	0.133	0.867
h3	LAX	2026-07-30	76-77°F	NO	0.610	$8.74	0.084	0.916
h3	LAX	2026-07-30	78-79°F	NO	0.650	$8.74	0.189	0.811
h3	MIA	2026-07-30	94-95°F	NO	0.480	$8.74	0.206	0.794
h3	NYC	2026-07-30	76-77°F	NO	0.670	$2.17	0.301	0.699
h4	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$5.53	0.094	0.906
h4	ATL	2026-07-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$5.53	0.236	0.764
h4	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$5.53	0.038	0.962
h4	CHI	2026-07-30	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$5.53	0.110	0.890
h4	CHI	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$3.84	0.254	0.746
h4	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$5.53	0.077	0.923
h4	DAL	2026-07-30	100-101°F	NO	0.540	$5.53	0.198	0.802
h4	DEN	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.470	$5.53	0.133	0.867
h4	DEN	2026-07-30	94-95°F	NO	0.920	$1.69	0.038	0.962

Settlements2524 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$10.42	-$10.49	LOSS	94°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$10.42	$6.84	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$26.39	-$26.57	LOSS	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$20.12	-$20.26	LOSS	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$20.12	$13.22	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$9.52	-$9.59	LOSS	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$9.52	$6.25	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$6.19	-$6.23	LOSS	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$6.19	$4.07	WIN	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$10.42	-$10.49	LOSS	78°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$10.42	$7.43	WIN	78°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$26.39	-$26.59	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$20.12	-$20.28	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$20.12	$14.36	WIN	78°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$9.52	-$9.59	LOSS	78°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$9.52	$6.79	WIN	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-28	76-77°F	NO	0.930	$6.19	$0.46	WIN	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$6.19	-$6.24	LOSS	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$6.19	$4.42	WIN	78°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-28	98-99°F	NO	0.840	$10.42	-$10.46	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-28	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$10.42	$5.77	WIN	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-28	98-99°F	NO	0.840	$26.39	-$26.50	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-28	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$26.39	$14.61	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-28	98-99°F	NO	0.840	$20.12	-$20.21	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-28	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$9.52	$5.27	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-28	102-103°F	NO	0.670	$1.95	$0.94	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-28	98-99°F	NO	0.840	$6.19	-$6.22	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-28	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$6.19	$3.43	WIN	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-28	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$10.42	-$10.50	LOSS	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-28	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$26.39	-$26.61	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-28	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$9.52	-$9.60	LOSS	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-28	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$6.19	-$6.24	LOSS	92°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-28	76-77°F	NO	0.830	$10.42	$2.09	WIN	78°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-28	76-77°F	NO	0.830	$26.39	$5.29	WIN	78°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$26.39	$10.59	WIN	78°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-28	76-77°F	NO	0.830	$20.12	$4.04	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.520	$9.52	-$9.64	LOSS	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$7.57	$3.04	WIN	78°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-28	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$26.39	$13.98	WIN	88°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-28	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$20.12	$2.94	WIN	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$20.12	$6.94	WIN	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$11.01	$3.60	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$25.76	$8.42	WIN	90°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$20.05	$6.56	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.690	$6.44	$2.84	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$10.08	$3.30	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.690	$4.03	$1.78	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$6.30	$2.06	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-27	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$11.01	-$11.04	LOSS	84°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-27	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$11.01	$2.70	WIN	84°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-27	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$25.76	-$25.83	LOSS	84°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-27	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$25.76	$6.31	WIN	84°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-27	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$20.05	-$20.11	LOSS	84°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-27	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$20.05	$4.91	WIN	84°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-27	88-89°F	NO	0.720	$5.65	$2.16	WIN	84°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-27	82-83°F	NO	0.960	$6.30	$0.26	WIN	84°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-27	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$6.30	-$6.32	LOSS	84°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-27	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$6.30	$1.54	WIN	84°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-27	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$11.01	-$11.07	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-27	100-101°F	NO	0.570	$11.01	$8.19	WIN	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-27	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$25.76	-$25.90	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-27	100-101°F	NO	0.570	$25.76	$19.15	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-27	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$20.05	-$20.16	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-27	100-101°F	NO	0.570	$10.08	$7.50	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-27	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$6.30	-$6.34	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-27	100-101°F	NO	0.570	$6.30	$4.69	WIN	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-27	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$11.01	$2.05	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$11.01	-$11.08	LOSS	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$11.01	$5.09	WIN	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-27	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$25.76	$4.80	WIN	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$25.76	-$25.92	LOSS	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$25.76	$11.91	WIN	92°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-27	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$20.05	$3.74	WIN	92°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$20.05	-$20.18	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$10.08	-$10.14	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-27	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$10.08	$4.66	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-27	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$6.30	$1.18	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$2.28	-$2.29	LOSS	92°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-27	76-77°F	NO	0.890	$20.05	$2.42	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-27	78-79°F	NO	0.560	$10.08	-$10.19	LOSS	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-27	80-81°F	NO	0.690	$10.08	$4.45	WIN	78°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-27	92-93°F	NO	0.790	$20.05	$5.22	WIN	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-27	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$8.07	-$8.16	LOSS	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$7.70	-$7.79	LOSS	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$12.08	$5.09	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$28.38	$11.95	WIN	90°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$12.71	-$12.85	LOSS	90°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$19.95	$8.40	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$6.82	-$6.90	LOSS	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$10.71	$4.51	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$4.37	-$4.42	LOSS	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$6.86	$2.89	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-26	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$12.08	$2.96	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-26	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$12.08	$2.78	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.760	$12.08	-$12.16	LOSS	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$12.08	$3.95	WIN	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-26	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$28.38	$6.95	WIN	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-26	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$28.38	$6.52	WIN	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.760	$28.38	-$28.55	LOSS	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$28.38	$9.28	WIN	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-26	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$19.95	$4.89	WIN	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-26	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$19.95	$4.58	WIN	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.760	$19.95	-$20.07	LOSS	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$19.95	$6.53	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$10.71	$3.50	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-26	86-87°F	NO	0.800	$6.86	$1.68	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-26	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$6.86	$1.58	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-26	90-91°F	NO	0.760	$6.86	-$6.90	LOSS	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$6.86	$2.24	WIN	90°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-26	98-99°F	NO	0.750	$12.08	-$12.16	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-26	100-101°F	NO	0.590	$7.86	$5.38	WIN	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-26	98-99°F	NO	0.750	$28.38	-$28.56	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-26	98-99°F	NO	0.750	$10.71	-$10.77	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-26	100-101°F	NO	0.590	$6.97	$4.77	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-26	98-99°F	NO	0.750	$6.86	-$6.90	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-26	100-101°F	NO	0.590	$4.46	$3.06	WIN	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-26	100-101°F	NO	0.470	$8.60	-$8.71	LOSS	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-26	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$5.58	$2.03	WIN	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-26	100-101°F	NO	0.470	$9.49	-$9.61	LOSS	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-26	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$3.57	$1.30	WIN	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-26	100-101°F	NO	0.470	$1.31	-$1.33	LOSS	100°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-26	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$28.38	$2.74	WIN	78°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-26	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$28.38	$11.39	WIN	78°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-26	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$19.95	$1.93	WIN	78°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-26	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$19.95	$8.00	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-26	78-79°F	NO	0.530	$10.71	-$10.83	LOSS	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-26	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$10.71	$4.30	WIN	78°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-26	80-81°F	NO	0.910	$7.23	$0.70	WIN	82°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-26	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$3.26	$2.74	WIN	94°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-25	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$10.13	$5.13	WIN	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-25	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$11.57	-$11.63	LOSS	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-25	90-91°F	NO	0.870	$11.57	$1.69	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-25	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$28.41	-$28.57	LOSS	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-25	90-91°F	NO	0.870	$28.41	$4.15	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-25	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$17.43	$8.83	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-25	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$19.89	-$20.00	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-25	90-91°F	NO	0.870	$19.89	$2.91	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-25	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$8.58	$4.34	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-25	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$6.09	$3.09	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-25	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$6.95	-$6.99	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-25	90-91°F	NO	0.870	$6.95	$1.02	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-25	79°F or below	NO	0.860	$11.57	$1.84	WIN	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-25	80-81°F	NO	0.800	$11.57	-$11.62	LOSS	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-25	82-83°F	NO	0.650	$11.57	$6.13	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-25	79°F or below	NO	0.860	$28.41	$4.52	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-25	80-81°F	NO	0.800	$28.41	-$28.55	LOSS	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-25	82-83°F	NO	0.650	$28.41	$15.05	WIN	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-25	79°F or below	NO	0.860	$19.89	$3.17	WIN	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-25	80-81°F	NO	0.800	$19.89	-$19.99	LOSS	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-25	82-83°F	NO	0.650	$19.89	$10.53	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-25	82-83°F	NO	0.650	$9.79	$5.18	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-25	79°F or below	NO	0.860	$6.95	$1.11	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-25	80-81°F	NO	0.800	$6.95	-$6.99	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-25	82-83°F	NO	0.650	$6.95	$3.68	WIN	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-25	96-97°F	NO	0.850	$11.57	$2.00	WIN	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-25	98-99°F	NO	0.610	$11.57	-$11.68	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-25	96-97°F	NO	0.850	$28.41	$4.91	WIN	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-25	98-99°F	NO	0.610	$28.41	-$28.68	LOSS	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-25	96-97°F	NO	0.850	$19.89	$3.43	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-25	98-99°F	NO	0.610	$9.79	-$9.88	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-25	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$6.06	$3.36	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-25	96-97°F	NO	0.850	$6.95	$1.20	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-25	98-99°F	NO	0.610	$6.95	-$7.02	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-25	98-99°F	NO	0.580	$1.43	$1.02	WIN	100°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-25	98-99°F	NO	0.580	$18.19	$12.98	WIN	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-25	98-99°F	NO	0.580	$8.95	$6.39	WIN	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-25	100-101°F	NO	0.630	$9.79	-$9.88	LOSS	100°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-25	76-77°F	NO	0.860	$28.41	$4.52	WIN	78°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-25	76-77°F	NO	0.860	$4.15	$0.66	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-25	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$9.79	-$9.87	LOSS	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-25	80-81°F	NO	0.740	$9.79	$3.37	WIN	78°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-25	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$4.72	$2.97	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-25	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$1.04	-$1.05	LOSS	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-24	82-83°F	NO	0.850	$11.84	$2.04	WIN	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-24	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$11.84	$5.23	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-24	82-83°F	NO	0.850	$27.50	$4.75	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-24	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$27.50	$12.14	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-24	82-83°F	NO	0.850	$19.31	$3.33	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-24	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$19.31	$8.52	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-24	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$10.52	$4.65	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-24	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$2.04	$0.86	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-24	82-83°F	NO	0.850	$7.56	$1.31	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-24	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$7.56	$3.34	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$11.84	-$11.90	LOSS	78°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$27.50	-$27.66	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$19.31	-$19.42	LOSS	78°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-24	80-81°F	NO	0.590	$10.52	$7.20	WIN	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$7.56	-$7.60	LOSS	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-24	80-81°F	NO	0.590	$7.56	$5.17	WIN	78°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$11.84	-$11.92	LOSS	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$27.50	-$27.69	LOSS	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$10.52	-$10.60	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$7.56	-$7.61	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.600	$11.84	$7.77	WIN	96°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.600	$27.50	$18.06	WIN	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.600	$10.52	$6.91	WIN	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-24	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$10.52	-$10.63	LOSS	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.600	$7.56	$4.96	WIN	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-24	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$7.56	-$7.63	LOSS	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-24	98-99°F	NO	0.952	$7.56	$0.37	WIN	96°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	57/30	yes
CHI	56/30	yes
DAL	56/30	yes
DEN	57/30	yes
LAX	57/30	yes
MIA	57/30	yes
NYC	54/30	yes
SEA	39/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$4,150.72.