Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated 28 min agoPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-315852 decisions20:30:06 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-08-06: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 30 positions {'baseline': 5, 'h1': 3, 'h2': 4, 'h3': 9, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 31, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-08-06T20:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-08-06 20:30:06 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

2811

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$4,346.81

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 2811 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	598	19	409	60%	-0.0788	-0.0829	-0.1576	-$780.97	$9,916
baseline	secondary	FAIL	540	13	367	66%	-0.0823	-0.0858	-0.0530	-$764.60	$9,296
h1	secondary	FAIL	430	9	330	73%	-0.0276	-0.0299	-0.0710	-$412.12	$14,908
h2	secondary	FAIL	414	9	302	71%	-0.0558	-0.0596	-0.0547	-$552.72	$9,908
h4	secondary	FAIL	573	17	296	66%	-0.1059	-0.1101	-0.0595	-$856.33	$8,088
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions67 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-08-06	84-85°F	NO	0.850	$8.70	0.099	0.901
baseline	ATL	2026-08-06	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$8.66	0.244	0.756
baseline	CHI	2026-08-06	76-77°F	NO	0.780	$8.70	0.074	0.926
baseline	DAL	2026-08-06	98-99°F	NO	0.710	$8.70	0.119	0.881
baseline	DEN	2026-08-06	98-99°F	NO	0.860	$8.70	0.024	0.976
baseline	NYC	2026-08-06	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$5.23	0.299	0.701
baseline	NYC	2026-08-06	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$8.70	0.179	0.821
baseline	SEA	2026-08-06	88-89°F	NO	0.610	$8.70	0.279	0.721
h1	ATL	2026-08-06	84-85°F	NO	0.850	$24.54	0.099	0.901
h1	ATL	2026-08-06	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$24.42	0.244	0.756
h1	CHI	2026-08-06	76-77°F	NO	0.780	$24.54	0.074	0.926
h1	DAL	2026-08-06	98-99°F	NO	0.710	$24.54	0.119	0.881
h1	DEN	2026-08-06	98-99°F	NO	0.860	$24.54	0.024	0.976
h1	NYC	2026-08-06	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$24.54	0.179	0.821
h2	ATL	2026-08-06	84-85°F	NO	0.850	$18.86	0.099	0.901
h2	CHI	2026-08-06	76-77°F	NO	0.780	$18.86	0.074	0.926
h2	DAL	2026-08-06	98-99°F	NO	0.710	$18.86	0.119	0.881
h2	DEN	2026-08-06	98-99°F	NO	0.860	$18.86	0.024	0.976
h2	SEA	2026-08-06	88-89°F	NO	0.610	$18.86	0.279	0.721
h3	ATL	2026-08-06	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$7.30	0.244	0.756
h3	CHI	2026-08-06	78-79°F	NO	0.560	$7.33	0.195	0.805
h3	DAL	2026-08-06	98-99°F	NO	0.710	$7.33	0.119	0.881
h3	DAL	2026-08-06	100-101°F	NO	0.470	$7.33	0.261	0.739
h3	DEN	2026-08-06	96-97°F	NO	0.460	$7.33	0.085	0.915
h3	LAX	2026-08-06	76-77°F	NO	0.630	$7.33	0.064	0.936
h3	LAX	2026-08-06	78-79°F	NO	0.510	$7.33	0.154	0.846
h3	MIA	2026-08-06	88-89°F	NO	0.560	$1.83	0.394	0.606
h3	NYC	2026-08-06	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$4.41	0.299	0.701
h3	NYC	2026-08-06	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$1.13	0.179	0.821
h4	ATL	2026-08-06	84-85°F	NO	0.850	$5.10	0.099	0.901
h4	ATL	2026-08-06	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$5.08	0.244	0.756
h4	CHI	2026-08-06	76-77°F	NO	0.780	$5.10	0.074	0.926
h4	CHI	2026-08-06	78-79°F	NO	0.560	$5.10	0.195	0.805
h4	DAL	2026-08-06	98-99°F	NO	0.710	$5.10	0.119	0.881
h4	DAL	2026-08-06	100-101°F	NO	0.470	$5.10	0.261	0.739
h4	DEN	2026-08-06	96-97°F	NO	0.460	$5.10	0.085	0.915
h4	DEN	2026-08-06	98-99°F	NO	0.860	$5.10	0.024	0.976
baseline	ATL	2026-08-07	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$8.44	0.158	0.842
baseline	CHI	2026-08-07	86-87°F	NO	0.610	$5.03	0.304	0.696
baseline	DAL	2026-08-07	100-101°F	NO	0.550	$8.44	0.257	0.743
baseline	MIA	2026-08-07	92-93°F	NO	0.830	$8.44	0.079	0.921
baseline	NYC	2026-08-07	92-93°F	NO	0.690	$8.44	0.202	0.798
h1	ATL	2026-08-07	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$21.99	0.158	0.842
h1	MIA	2026-08-07	92-93°F	NO	0.830	$21.99	0.079	0.921
h1	NYC	2026-08-07	92-93°F	NO	0.690	$21.99	0.202	0.798
h2	ATL	2026-08-07	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$17.62	0.158	0.842
h2	CHI	2026-08-07	86-87°F	NO	0.610	$10.50	0.304	0.696
h2	DAL	2026-08-07	100-101°F	NO	0.550	$17.62	0.257	0.743
h2	MIA	2026-08-07	92-93°F	NO	0.830	$17.62	0.079	0.921
h3	ATL	2026-08-07	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$7.99	0.158	0.842
h3	ATL	2026-08-07	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$2.61	0.305	0.695
h3	CHI	2026-08-07	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$7.99	0.168	0.832
h3	CHI	2026-08-07	86-87°F	NO	0.610	$4.76	0.304	0.696
h3	DAL	2026-08-07	98-99°F	NO	0.600	$7.99	0.115	0.885
h3	DAL	2026-08-07	100-101°F	NO	0.550	$7.99	0.257	0.743
h3	DEN	2026-08-07	96-97°F	NO	0.540	$7.99	0.201	0.799
h3	DEN	2026-08-07	98-99°F	NO	0.690	$7.99	0.062	0.938
h3	LAX	2026-08-07	76-77°F	NO	0.610	$7.99	0.040	0.960
h4	ATL	2026-08-07	84-85°F	NO	0.900	$5.13	0.055	0.945
h4	ATL	2026-08-07	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$5.13	0.158	0.842
h4	ATL	2026-08-07	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$1.67	0.305	0.695
h4	CHI	2026-08-07	82-83°F	NO	0.900	$5.13	0.061	0.939
h4	CHI	2026-08-07	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$5.13	0.168	0.832
h4	CHI	2026-08-07	86-87°F	NO	0.610	$3.06	0.304	0.696
h4	DAL	2026-08-07	96-97°F	NO	0.920	$5.13	0.040	0.960
h4	DAL	2026-08-07	98-99°F	NO	0.600	$5.13	0.115	0.885
h4	DAL	2026-08-07	100-101°F	NO	0.550	$5.13	0.257	0.743

Settlements2811 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-08-05	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$9.18	$6.03	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-08-05	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$17.11	$11.24	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-08-05	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$8.01	$5.26	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-05	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$4.75	$3.12	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-05	75°F or below	NO	0.870	$9.35	$1.37	WIN	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-05	80-81°F	NO	0.810	$9.35	-$9.40	LOSS	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-08-05	75°F or below	NO	0.870	$25.33	$3.70	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-08-05	80-81°F	NO	0.810	$25.33	-$25.45	LOSS	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-08-05	75°F or below	NO	0.870	$17.44	$2.55	WIN	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-08-05	80-81°F	NO	0.810	$17.44	-$17.52	LOSS	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-05	76-77°F	NO	0.750	$8.17	$2.67	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-05	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$8.17	$3.28	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-05	75°F or below	NO	0.870	$4.84	$0.71	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-05	76-77°F	NO	0.750	$4.84	$1.58	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-05	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$4.84	$1.94	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-05	80-81°F	NO	0.810	$4.84	-$4.86	LOSS	80°F
baseline	MIA	2026-08-05	88-89°F	NO	0.510	$6.44	-$6.52	LOSS	88°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-05	80-81°F	NO	0.690	$9.35	$4.13	WIN	84°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-05	82-83°F	NO	0.610	$6.27	$3.95	WIN	84°F
h1	NYC	2026-08-05	80-81°F	NO	0.690	$25.33	$11.18	WIN	84°F
baseline	SEA	2026-08-05	90-91°F	NO	0.810	$9.35	$2.15	WIN	86°F
h1	SEA	2026-08-05	90-91°F	NO	0.810	$25.33	$5.82	WIN	86°F
h2	SEA	2026-08-05	90-91°F	NO	0.810	$17.44	$4.01	WIN	86°F
h3	DAL	2026-08-05	98-99°F	NO	0.710	$8.17	$3.28	WIN	100°F
h3	DAL	2026-08-05	100-101°F	NO	0.490	$8.17	-$8.27	LOSS	100°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-05	98-99°F	NO	0.710	$4.84	$1.94	WIN	100°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-05	100-101°F	NO	0.490	$4.84	-$4.90	LOSS	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-05	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$8.17	$5.36	WIN	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-05	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$4.84	$3.18	WIN	84°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-05	74-75°F	NO	0.710	$8.17	$3.28	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-05	76-77°F	NO	0.480	$8.17	-$8.27	LOSS	76°F
baseline	ATL	2026-08-04	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$4.50	$3.21	WIN	84°F
baseline	ATL	2026-08-04	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$7.44	$2.56	WIN	84°F
h1	ATL	2026-08-04	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$22.59	$7.79	WIN	84°F
h2	ATL	2026-08-04	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$9.47	$6.76	WIN	84°F
h2	ATL	2026-08-04	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$15.65	$5.40	WIN	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-08-04	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$5.53	$3.94	WIN	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-08-04	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$9.13	$3.15	WIN	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-04	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$3.32	$2.37	WIN	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-04	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$5.48	$1.89	WIN	84°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$7.44	$2.06	WIN	84°F
h1	CHI	2026-08-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$22.59	$6.25	WIN	84°F
h2	CHI	2026-08-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$15.65	$4.33	WIN	84°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-04	84-85°F	NO	0.530	$9.13	-$9.24	LOSS	84°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$5.48	$1.52	WIN	84°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-04	84-85°F	NO	0.530	$5.48	-$5.55	LOSS	84°F
baseline	MIA	2026-08-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$7.44	$1.28	WIN	90°F
h1	MIA	2026-08-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$22.59	$3.90	WIN	90°F
h2	MIA	2026-08-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$15.65	$2.70	WIN	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-08-04	90-91°F	NO	0.500	$9.13	-$9.24	LOSS	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-04	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$3.96	-$4.01	LOSS	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-08-04	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$8.33	-$8.43	LOSS	84°F
h3	NYC	2026-08-04	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$3.61	-$3.65	LOSS	84°F
baseline	SEA	2026-08-04	84-85°F	NO	0.570	$6.03	$4.48	WIN	80°F
h2	SEA	2026-08-04	84-85°F	NO	0.570	$12.68	$9.43	WIN	80°F
h3	DAL	2026-08-04	100-101°F	NO	0.470	$9.13	-$9.25	LOSS	100°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-04	98-99°F	NO	0.870	$5.48	$0.80	WIN	100°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-04	100-101°F	NO	0.470	$5.48	-$5.56	LOSS	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-04	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$9.13	$5.51	WIN	74°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-04	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$5.48	$3.31	WIN	74°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-04	82-83°F	NO	0.930	$5.48	$0.40	WIN	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-04	74-75°F	NO	0.730	$9.13	$3.32	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-04	76-77°F	NO	0.460	$9.13	-$9.25	LOSS	76°F
h4	LAX	2026-08-04	74-75°F	NO	0.730	$2.17	$0.79	WIN	76°F
baseline	ATL	2026-08-03	86-87°F	NO	0.640	$8.05	-$8.12	LOSS	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-08-03	86-87°F	NO	0.640	$16.89	-$17.04	LOSS	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-08-03	86-87°F	NO	0.640	$9.45	-$9.54	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-03	86-87°F	NO	0.640	$5.43	-$5.47	LOSS	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$8.05	$3.23	WIN	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.550	$4.66	$3.76	WIN	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$22.49	$9.02	WIN	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$16.89	$6.78	WIN	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.550	$9.78	$7.90	WIN	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$9.45	$3.79	WIN	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.550	$5.48	$4.42	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$5.43	$2.18	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.550	$3.14	$2.54	WIN	82°F
baseline	DEN	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.520	$8.05	-$8.14	LOSS	100°F
baseline	DEN	2026-08-03	102-103°F	NO	0.730	$8.05	$2.92	WIN	100°F
h1	DEN	2026-08-03	102-103°F	NO	0.730	$22.49	$8.17	WIN	100°F
h2	DEN	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.520	$16.89	-$17.09	LOSS	100°F
h2	DEN	2026-08-03	102-103°F	NO	0.730	$16.89	$6.13	WIN	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.520	$9.45	-$9.57	LOSS	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-03	102-103°F	NO	0.730	$9.45	$3.43	WIN	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.520	$5.43	-$5.49	LOSS	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-03	102-103°F	NO	0.730	$5.43	$1.97	WIN	100°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$8.05	$2.36	WIN	84°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-03	82-83°F	NO	0.620	$8.05	$4.86	WIN	84°F
h1	NYC	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$22.49	$6.59	WIN	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$16.89	$4.95	WIN	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-08-03	82-83°F	NO	0.620	$16.89	$10.19	WIN	84°F
baseline	SEA	2026-08-03	76-77°F	NO	0.490	$8.05	$8.27	WIN	74°F
baseline	SEA	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.720	$3.38	$1.29	WIN	74°F
h1	SEA	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.720	$22.49	$8.59	WIN	74°F
h3	DAL	2026-08-03	98-99°F	NO	0.610	$9.45	-$9.54	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.650	$3.27	$1.73	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-03	98-99°F	NO	0.610	$5.43	-$5.48	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.650	$1.88	$0.99	WIN	98°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-03	76-77°F	NO	0.710	$9.45	$3.79	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.560	$9.45	-$9.56	LOSS	78°F
h4	LAX	2026-08-03	76-77°F	NO	0.710	$5.43	$2.18	WIN	78°F
h4	LAX	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.560	$5.43	-$5.48	LOSS	78°F
baseline	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$9.01	$3.44	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$22.93	$8.76	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$8.31	$3.17	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-02	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$5.33	$0.64	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$5.33	$2.04	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$9.01	$3.79	WIN	76°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$5.75	-$5.81	LOSS	76°F
h1	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$22.93	$9.65	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$19.54	$8.23	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$12.47	-$12.60	LOSS	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$8.31	$3.50	WIN	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$5.30	-$5.36	LOSS	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$5.33	$2.24	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$3.40	-$3.44	LOSS	76°F
baseline	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$9.01	$7.27	WIN	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$19.54	$15.77	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$8.31	$6.70	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$5.33	$4.30	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$9.01	-$9.10	LOSS	100°F
h1	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$22.93	-$23.15	LOSS	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$8.31	-$8.39	LOSS	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-02	102-103°F	NO	0.640	$8.31	$4.60	WIN	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$5.33	-$5.38	LOSS	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-02	102-103°F	NO	0.640	$5.33	$2.95	WIN	100°F
baseline	MIA	2026-08-02	90-91°F	NO	0.580	$9.01	-$9.10	LOSS	90°F
h1	MIA	2026-08-02	90-91°F	NO	0.580	$22.93	-$23.17	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-08-02	90-91°F	NO	0.580	$3.01	-$3.04	LOSS	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$9.01	$1.94	WIN	84°F
h1	NYC	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$22.93	$4.93	WIN	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$19.54	$4.20	WIN	84°F
baseline	SEA	2026-08-02	68-69°F	NO	0.760	$9.01	-$9.06	LOSS	68°F
h1	SEA	2026-08-02	68-69°F	NO	0.760	$22.93	-$23.07	LOSS	68°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-02	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$8.31	-$8.37	LOSS	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.470	$8.31	$9.26	WIN	78°F
h4	LAX	2026-08-02	77°F or below	NO	0.960	$5.33	$0.22	WIN	78°F
h4	LAX	2026-08-02	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$1.93	-$1.94	LOSS	78°F
baseline	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$8.96	-$9.02	LOSS	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$8.96	$1.31	WIN	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$23.20	-$23.36	LOSS	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$23.20	$3.39	WIN	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$16.24	-$16.36	LOSS	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$16.24	$2.37	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.710	$1.03	$0.41	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$9.33	-$9.40	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$5.63	-$5.67	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$5.63	$0.82	WIN	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-01	90-91°F	NO	0.950	$5.63	$0.29	WIN	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$8.96	$4.54	WIN	72°F
h1	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$23.20	$11.75	WIN	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$9.33	$4.73	WIN	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-01	72-73°F	NO	0.640	$5.15	-$5.19	LOSS	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$5.63	$2.85	WIN	72°F
baseline	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$8.96	-$9.01	LOSS	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$23.20	-$23.32	LOSS	96°F
h2	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$16.24	-$16.33	LOSS	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-08-01	98-99°F	NO	0.430	$9.33	$12.24	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$5.63	-$5.66	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-01	98-99°F	NO	0.430	$5.63	$7.38	WIN	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$8.96	-$9.06	LOSS	92°F
h2	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$16.24	-$16.42	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$9.33	-$9.43	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$9.33	$8.50	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$5.63	-$5.69	LOSS	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$5.63	$5.13	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$8.89	$4.50	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$23.01	$11.66	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$1.80	-$1.82	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$9.26	$4.69	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$8.96	$3.77	WIN	86°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.550	$8.32	-$8.41	LOSS	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$23.20	$9.77	WIN	86°F
h3	NYC	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$1.43	$0.60	WIN	86°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-01	80-81°F	NO	0.500	$9.33	$9.22	WIN	78°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$10.10	-$10.18	LOSS	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-31	92-93°F	NO	0.510	$10.10	$9.58	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$26.03	-$26.24	LOSS	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$8.05	-$8.11	LOSS	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-31	92-93°F	NO	0.510	$8.05	$7.63	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$5.72	-$5.77	LOSS	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-31	92-93°F	NO	0.510	$5.72	$5.43	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$10.10	$3.67	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$26.03	$9.45	WIN	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$19.67	$7.14	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-31	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$8.05	-$8.10	LOSS	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$8.05	$2.92	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	77°F or below	NO	0.970	$5.72	$0.17	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$5.72	$1.49	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$5.72	-$5.76	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$5.72	$2.08	WIN	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$10.10	$2.47	WIN	102°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$10.10	-$10.20	LOSS	102°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$26.03	$6.38	WIN	102°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$26.03	-$26.31	LOSS	102°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$19.67	$4.82	WIN	102°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$8.05	-$8.13	LOSS	102°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$5.72	$1.40	WIN	102°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$5.72	-$5.78	LOSS	102°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$10.10	-$10.14	LOSS	90°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	65/30	yes
CHI	64/30	yes
DAL	64/30	yes
DEN	65/30	yes
LAX	65/30	yes
MIA	64/30	yes
NYC	62/30	yes
SEA	46/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$4,346.81.