Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-314623 decisions14:02:25 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-07-23: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 40 positions {'baseline': 8, 'h1': 8, 'h2': 7, 'h3': 9, 'h4': 8, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 46, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-07-24T14:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-07-24 14:02:25 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

2311

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$3,850.97

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 2311 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	477	9	330	60%	-0.0804	-0.0850	-0.1422	-$719.38	$8,946
baseline	secondary	FAIL	437	8	298	66%	-0.0809	-0.0849	-0.0279	-$673.88	$8,326
h1	secondary	FAIL	348	8	269	74%	-0.0164	-0.0190	-0.0481	-$210.42	$12,801
h2	secondary	FAIL	331	7	246	71%	-0.0555	-0.0600	-0.0406	-$467.14	$8,414
h4	secondary	FAIL	462	8	242	66%	-0.1071	-0.1118	-0.0218	-$800.06	$7,467
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions40 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-07-24	82-83°F	NO	0.850	$11.84	0.045	0.955
baseline	ATL	2026-07-24	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$11.84	0.131	0.869
baseline	CHI	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$11.84	0.045	0.955
baseline	DAL	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$11.84	0.218	0.782
baseline	DEN	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.600	$11.84	0.228	0.772
baseline	MIA	2026-07-24	88-89°F	NO	0.690	$11.84	0.123	0.877
baseline	MIA	2026-07-24	90-91°F	NO	0.550	$11.27	0.357	0.643
baseline	NYC	2026-07-24	80-81°F	NO	0.790	$11.84	0.066	0.934
h1	ATL	2026-07-24	82-83°F	NO	0.850	$27.50	0.045	0.955
h1	ATL	2026-07-24	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$27.50	0.131	0.869
h1	CHI	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$27.50	0.045	0.955
h1	DAL	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$27.50	0.218	0.782
h1	DEN	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.600	$27.50	0.228	0.772
h1	MIA	2026-07-24	88-89°F	NO	0.690	$27.50	0.123	0.877
h1	NYC	2026-07-24	80-81°F	NO	0.790	$27.50	0.066	0.934
h1	SEA	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$27.50	0.157	0.843
h2	ATL	2026-07-24	82-83°F	NO	0.850	$19.31	0.045	0.955
h2	ATL	2026-07-24	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$19.31	0.131	0.869
h2	CHI	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$19.31	0.045	0.955
h2	MIA	2026-07-24	88-89°F	NO	0.690	$19.31	0.123	0.877
h2	MIA	2026-07-24	90-91°F	NO	0.550	$18.38	0.357	0.643
h2	NYC	2026-07-24	80-81°F	NO	0.790	$19.31	0.066	0.934
h2	SEA	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$19.31	0.157	0.843
h3	ATL	2026-07-24	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$10.52	0.131	0.869
h3	ATL	2026-07-24	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$2.04	0.283	0.717
h3	CHI	2026-07-24	80-81°F	NO	0.590	$10.52	0.129	0.871
h3	DAL	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$10.52	0.218	0.782
h3	DEN	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.600	$10.52	0.228	0.772
h3	DEN	2026-07-24	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$10.52	0.073	0.927
h3	LAX	2026-07-24	80-81°F	NO	0.600	$10.52	0.011	0.989
h3	LAX	2026-07-24	82-83°F	NO	0.750	$10.52	0.027	0.973
h3	MIA	2026-07-24	88-89°F	NO	0.690	$8.48	0.123	0.877
h4	ATL	2026-07-24	82-83°F	NO	0.850	$7.56	0.045	0.955
h4	ATL	2026-07-24	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$7.56	0.131	0.869
h4	CHI	2026-07-24	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$7.56	0.045	0.955
h4	CHI	2026-07-24	80-81°F	NO	0.590	$7.56	0.129	0.871
h4	DAL	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$7.56	0.218	0.782
h4	DEN	2026-07-24	94-95°F	NO	0.600	$7.56	0.228	0.772
h4	DEN	2026-07-24	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$7.56	0.073	0.927
h4	DEN	2026-07-24	98-99°F	NO	0.952	$7.56	0.021	0.979

Settlements2311 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$10.93	-$11.00	LOSS	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-23	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$6.65	$4.19	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$38.82	-$39.07	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$9.02	-$9.08	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-23	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$5.49	$3.45	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$6.65	-$6.70	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-23	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$4.05	$2.55	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-23	74-75°F	NO	0.900	$10.93	$1.19	WIN	76°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-23	74-75°F	NO	0.900	$38.82	$4.22	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-23	74-75°F	NO	0.900	$17.81	$1.93	WIN	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-23	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$9.02	-$9.08	LOSS	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$9.02	$6.43	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-23	74-75°F	NO	0.900	$6.65	$0.72	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-23	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$6.65	-$6.70	LOSS	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$6.65	$4.75	WIN	76°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-23	96-97°F	NO	0.880	$10.93	-$10.96	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-23	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$10.93	$3.97	WIN	96°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-23	100-101°F	NO	0.620	$6.54	$3.95	WIN	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-23	96-97°F	NO	0.880	$38.82	-$38.94	LOSS	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-23	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$38.82	$14.10	WIN	96°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-23	96-97°F	NO	0.880	$17.81	-$17.86	LOSS	96°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-23	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$17.81	$6.47	WIN	96°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-23	100-101°F	NO	0.620	$10.66	$6.43	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-23	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$9.02	$3.27	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-23	100-101°F	NO	0.620	$5.40	$3.26	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-23	96-97°F	NO	0.880	$6.65	-$6.67	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-23	98-99°F	NO	0.730	$6.65	$2.42	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-23	100-101°F	NO	0.620	$3.98	$2.40	WIN	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$10.93	$3.97	WIN	84°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$38.82	$14.10	WIN	84°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$17.81	$6.47	WIN	84°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-23	86-87°F	NO	0.610	$2.65	$1.67	WIN	84°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$9.02	$3.27	WIN	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-23	86-87°F	NO	0.610	$1.96	$1.23	WIN	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-23	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$3.32	$1.20	WIN	84°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.920	$10.93	$0.93	WIN	80°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.920	$38.82	$3.30	WIN	80°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.920	$17.81	$1.51	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-23	80-81°F	NO	0.660	$9.02	-$9.09	LOSS	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-23	82-83°F	NO	0.570	$4.50	$3.34	WIN	80°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-23	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$8.67	$5.23	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-23	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$15.05	$9.08	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-23	92-93°F	NO	0.530	$13.71	-$13.87	LOSS	92°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$38.82	$8.92	WIN	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-23	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$14.00	$3.22	WIN	80°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-23	74-75°F	NO	0.800	$38.82	-$39.01	LOSS	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-22	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$11.37	-$11.44	LOSS	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-22	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$11.37	$9.55	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-22	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$34.34	-$34.53	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-22	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$18.58	-$18.68	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-22	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$18.58	$15.61	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-22	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$9.49	$7.98	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-22	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$6.74	-$6.78	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-22	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$6.74	$5.67	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-22	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$11.37	$3.52	WIN	74°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-22	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$11.37	$9.55	WIN	74°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-22	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$34.34	$10.64	WIN	74°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-22	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$18.58	$5.75	WIN	74°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-22	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$18.58	$15.61	WIN	74°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-22	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$9.49	$7.98	WIN	74°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-22	68-69°F	NO	0.926	$6.74	$0.53	WIN	74°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-22	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$6.74	$2.09	WIN	74°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-22	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$6.74	$5.67	WIN	74°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-22	102-103°F	NO	0.850	$11.37	$1.96	WIN	108°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-22	102-103°F	NO	0.850	$34.34	$5.93	WIN	108°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-22	102-103°F	NO	0.850	$18.58	$3.21	WIN	108°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-22	104-105°F	NO	0.610	$9.49	$5.98	WIN	108°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-22	106-107°F	NO	0.660	$2.54	$1.29	WIN	108°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-22	102-103°F	NO	0.850	$6.74	$1.16	WIN	108°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-22	104-105°F	NO	0.610	$6.74	$4.25	WIN	108°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-22	106-107°F	NO	0.660	$1.80	$0.91	WIN	108°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-22	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$10.30	$7.98	WIN	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-22	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$16.82	$13.03	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-22	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$8.60	$6.66	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-22	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$4.94	$3.83	WIN	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-22	76-77°F	NO	0.710	$11.37	-$11.45	LOSS	76°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-22	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$11.37	$5.76	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-22	76-77°F	NO	0.710	$34.34	-$34.58	LOSS	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-22	76-77°F	NO	0.710	$18.58	-$18.71	LOSS	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-22	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$18.58	$9.41	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-22	76-77°F	NO	0.710	$9.49	-$9.56	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-22	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$9.49	$4.81	WIN	76°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-22	92-93°F	NO	0.460	$1.07	-$1.09	LOSS	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-22	92-93°F	NO	0.460	$1.75	-$1.78	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-22	90-91°F	NO	0.670	$5.65	$2.74	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-22	92-93°F	NO	0.460	$5.03	-$5.10	LOSS	92°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-22	94-95°F	NO	0.770	$34.34	-$34.53	LOSS	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-22	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$6.66	$3.38	WIN	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$9.42	-$9.52	LOSS	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$10.26	$4.97	WIN	90°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$15.32	-$15.48	LOSS	90°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$16.67	$8.07	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$7.40	-$7.48	LOSS	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$8.06	$3.90	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$5.22	-$5.28	LOSS	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$5.69	$2.75	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-21	84-85°F	NO	0.570	$6.79	$5.05	WIN	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-21	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$12.14	-$12.22	LOSS	86°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-21	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$36.84	-$37.08	LOSS	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-21	84-85°F	NO	0.570	$5.34	$3.97	WIN	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-21	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$9.54	-$9.60	LOSS	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-21	84-85°F	NO	0.570	$3.77	$2.80	WIN	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-21	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$6.73	-$6.77	LOSS	86°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-21	102-103°F	NO	0.760	$12.14	$3.76	WIN	106°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-21	102-103°F	NO	0.760	$36.84	$11.41	WIN	106°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-21	102-103°F	NO	0.760	$19.72	$6.11	WIN	106°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-21	104-105°F	NO	0.600	$9.54	$6.26	WIN	106°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-21	102-103°F	NO	0.760	$6.73	$2.08	WIN	106°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-21	104-105°F	NO	0.600	$6.73	$4.42	WIN	106°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-21	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$12.14	$5.88	WIN	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-21	96-97°F	NO	0.900	$12.14	-$12.17	LOSS	96°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-21	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$36.84	$17.84	WIN	96°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-21	96-97°F	NO	0.900	$36.84	-$36.94	LOSS	96°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-21	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$19.72	$9.55	WIN	96°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-21	96-97°F	NO	0.900	$19.72	-$19.77	LOSS	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$1.83	$1.10	WIN	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-21	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$9.54	$4.62	WIN	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-21	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$6.73	$3.26	WIN	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-21	96-97°F	NO	0.900	$6.73	-$6.75	LOSS	96°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$12.14	-$12.22	LOSS	90°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.460	$9.94	$11.53	WIN	90°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$36.84	-$37.09	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$5.98	-$6.02	LOSS	90°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-21	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$36.84	$8.47	WIN	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-21	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$36.84	$18.67	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-21	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$19.72	$4.53	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-21	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$19.72	$9.99	WIN	82°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.640	$36.84	$20.39	WIN	92°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-21	78-79°F	NO	0.750	$9.54	$3.12	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-21	80-81°F	NO	0.510	$9.54	-$9.65	LOSS	80°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-21	78-79°F	NO	0.750	$5.51	$1.80	WIN	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$11.46	-$11.58	LOSS	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$18.08	-$18.27	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$9.18	-$9.28	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$5.39	$1.01	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$6.89	-$6.97	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$11.46	-$11.49	LOSS	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$11.46	$4.38	WIN	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$37.47	-$37.59	LOSS	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$37.47	$14.31	WIN	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$18.08	-$18.13	LOSS	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-20	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$9.18	$4.05	WIN	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$9.18	$3.51	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$6.89	-$6.91	LOSS	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-20	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$6.89	$3.04	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$6.89	$2.63	WIN	82°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$11.46	$2.46	WIN	102°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$37.47	$8.06	WIN	102°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$18.08	$3.89	WIN	102°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.530	$9.18	$8.03	WIN	102°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$6.89	$1.48	WIN	102°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.530	$6.89	$6.03	WIN	102°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$6.51	$5.25	WIN	100°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$10.28	$8.29	WIN	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$5.22	$4.21	WIN	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$9.18	-$9.27	LOSS	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$3.92	$3.16	WIN	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$4.48	-$4.52	LOSS	100°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-20	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$11.46	$2.81	WIN	80°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-20	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$37.47	$9.18	WIN	80°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-20	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$18.08	$4.43	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$9.18	$5.08	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-20	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$7.28	-$7.33	LOSS	80°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$11.46	$5.80	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.500	$8.83	-$8.94	LOSS	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$37.47	$18.99	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$5.86	$2.97	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.830	$7.57	$1.52	WIN	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.830	$37.47	$7.52	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.830	$18.08	$3.63	WIN	82°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-20	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$15.22	$8.06	WIN	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-19	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$7.19	$4.53	WIN	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$12.10	$4.17	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$32.06	$11.06	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-19	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$6.36	$4.00	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$10.70	$3.69	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-19	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$4.29	$2.70	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$7.22	$2.49	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$12.10	-$12.17	LOSS	78°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$9.70	$8.15	WIN	78°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$32.06	-$32.25	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$19.77	-$19.89	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$15.85	$13.32	WIN	78°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$8.58	$7.21	WIN	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$7.22	-$7.26	LOSS	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$5.79	$4.86	WIN	78°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$12.10	$4.85	WIN	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$12.10	-$12.22	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$32.06	$12.86	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$19.77	$7.93	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$19.77	-$19.98	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$10.70	$4.29	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$10.70	-$10.81	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$7.22	$2.90	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$7.22	-$7.30	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$6.12	$4.19	WIN	98°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$9.99	$6.84	WIN	98°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$5.41	$3.70	WIN	98°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.600	$10.70	-$10.81	LOSS	98°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$3.65	$2.50	WIN	98°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	52/30	yes
CHI	51/30	yes
DAL	51/30	yes
DEN	52/30	yes
LAX	52/30	yes
MIA	52/30	yes
NYC	51/30	yes
SEA	38/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$3,850.97.