Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-312162 decisions14:02:30 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-06-25: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 44 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 6, 'h2': 7, 'h3': 10, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 3}
settle▸ [settle] settled 51, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-06-26T14:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-06-26 14:02:30 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

1146

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$2,315.93

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 1146 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	211	10	156	62%	-0.0462	-0.0534	-0.0769	-$254.89	$5,516
baseline	secondary	FAIL	192	9	132	66%	-0.0733	-0.0796	+0.0021	-$382.32	$5,214
h1	secondary	FAIL	155	6	121	75%	+0.0022	-0.0030	-0.0234	$12.32	$5,523
h2	secondary	FAIL	139	7	105	71%	-0.0617	-0.0699	-0.0359	-$284.40	$4,610
h4	secondary	FAIL	215	9	119	67%	-0.0898	-0.0965	+0.0749	-$457.34	$5,091
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	234	3	138	9%	-0.5889	-0.7125	-0.0873	-$949.30	$1,612

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions44 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$11.63	0.317	0.683
baseline	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$22.22	0.071	0.929
baseline	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$22.22	0.272	0.728
baseline	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$22.22	0.097	0.903
baseline	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$22.22	0.028	0.972
baseline	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$22.22	0.129	0.871
baseline	MIA	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$22.22	0.330	0.670
baseline	NYC	2026-06-26	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$22.22	0.069	0.931
baseline	NYC	2026-06-26	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$10.59	0.178	0.822
h1	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$33.75	0.071	0.929
h1	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$33.75	0.097	0.903
h1	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$33.75	0.028	0.972
h1	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$33.75	0.129	0.871
h1	NYC	2026-06-26	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$33.75	0.069	0.931
h1	NYC	2026-06-26	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$33.75	0.178	0.822
h2	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$24.36	0.071	0.929
h2	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$24.36	0.272	0.728
h2	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$24.36	0.097	0.903
h2	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$24.36	0.028	0.972
h2	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$24.36	0.129	0.871
h2	MIA	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$24.36	0.330	0.670
h2	NYC	2026-06-26	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$24.36	0.069	0.931
h3	ATL	2026-06-26	86-87°F	NO	0.750	$1.94	0.242	0.758
h3	ATL	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$13.96	0.317	0.683
h3	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$26.67	0.272	0.728
h3	DEN	2026-06-26	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$13.02	0.275	0.725
h3	LAX	2026-06-26	70-71°F	NO	0.440	$26.67	0.245	0.755
h3	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$26.67	0.129	0.871
h3	MIA	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$26.67	0.330	0.670
h3	MIA	2026-06-26	92-93°F	NO	0.600	$11.01	0.360	0.640
h3	NYC	2026-06-26	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$26.67	0.178	0.822
h3	NYC	2026-06-26	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$4.19	0.298	0.702
h4	ATL	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$10.32	0.317	0.683
h4	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$19.72	0.071	0.929
h4	CHI	2026-06-26	76-77°F	NO	0.972	$19.72	0.009	0.991
h4	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$19.72	0.272	0.728
h4	DAL	2026-06-26	98-99°F	NO	0.930	$19.72	0.045	0.955
h4	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$19.72	0.097	0.903
h4	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$19.72	0.028	0.972
h4	LAX	2026-06-26	70-71°F	NO	0.440	$19.72	0.245	0.755
h4	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$9.40	0.129	0.871
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-26	72-73°F	YES	0.110	$1.19	0.266	0.266
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-26	74-75°F	YES	0.038	$1.04	0.158	0.158
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-26	88-89°F	YES	0.050	$1.68	0.240	0.240

Settlements1146 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$22.02	$9.27	WIN	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-25	84-85°F	NO	0.760	$22.02	$6.82	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$37.49	$15.79	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-25	84-85°F	NO	0.760	$37.49	$11.62	WIN	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$29.00	$12.21	WIN	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-25	84-85°F	NO	0.760	$29.00	$8.99	WIN	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$26.87	$11.31	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	79°F or below	NO	0.983	$20.02	$0.34	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$20.02	$8.43	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	80-81°F	NO	0.983	$20.02	$0.34	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	82-83°F	NO	0.953	$20.02	-$20.04	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-25	90-91°F	YES	0.099	$2.16	-$2.20	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-25	92-93°F	YES	0.020	$1.15	-$1.18	LOSS	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$22.02	$6.45	WIN	78°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.630	$22.02	-$22.22	LOSS	78°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$37.49	$10.98	WIN	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$29.00	$8.50	WIN	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.630	$29.00	-$29.27	LOSS	78°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.630	$26.87	-$27.11	LOSS	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$20.02	$5.86	WIN	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.630	$20.02	-$20.20	LOSS	78°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-25	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$18.05	$8.35	WIN	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-25	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$22.02	$5.40	WIN	92°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-25	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$37.49	$9.19	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-25	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$23.78	$11.00	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-25	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$29.00	$7.11	WIN	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-25	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$22.02	$10.19	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-25	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$16.41	$7.59	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-25	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$20.02	$4.90	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-25	98-99°F	NO	0.941	$3.61	$0.22	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$22.02	-$22.13	LOSS	76°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.890	$22.02	$2.66	WIN	76°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$37.49	-$37.67	LOSS	76°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.890	$37.49	$4.53	WIN	76°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$29.00	-$29.14	LOSS	76°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.890	$29.00	$3.51	WIN	76°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-25	72-73°F	YES	0.200	$1.46	-$1.49	LOSS	76°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-25	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$3.97	$1.52	WIN	72°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-25	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$37.49	$14.32	WIN	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-25	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$5.23	$2.00	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-25	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$26.87	$10.26	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-25	70-71°F	NO	0.570	$26.87	$19.98	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-25	72-73°F	YES	0.120	$2.03	$14.84	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-25	74-75°F	YES	0.020	$2.08	-$2.14	LOSS	72°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-25	80-81°F	NO	0.840	$37.49	$6.99	WIN	84°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-25	82-83°F	NO	0.650	$26.87	$14.23	WIN	84°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-25	84-85°F	NO	0.680	$4.51	-$4.55	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-25	86-87°F	YES	0.059	$1.62	-$1.66	LOSS	84°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-25	90-91°F	NO	0.590	$20.11	-$20.32	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-25	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$9.45	$5.70	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-25	68-69°F	YES	0.280	$1.23	-$1.25	LOSS	64°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$23.02	$11.15	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$34.92	$16.91	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$27.84	$13.48	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-24	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$16.02	-$16.16	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$19.93	$9.65	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$23.02	$3.67	WIN	86°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$34.92	$5.56	WIN	86°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$29.22	$4.65	WIN	86°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.730	$7.96	$2.89	WIN	86°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$19.93	$3.18	WIN	86°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-24	80-81°F	NO	0.940	$19.93	$1.24	WIN	86°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-24	68-69°F	NO	0.889	$23.02	$2.81	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-24	68-69°F	NO	0.889	$34.92	$4.26	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-24	68-69°F	NO	0.889	$29.22	$3.57	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-24	70-71°F	NO	0.520	$27.84	-$28.17	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-24	70-71°F	NO	0.520	$19.93	-$20.17	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-24	74-75°F	YES	0.090	$2.06	-$2.11	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-24	76-77°F	YES	0.010	$1.51	-$1.55	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-24	90-91°F	NO	0.510	$16.15	$15.32	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$23.02	-$23.27	LOSS	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-24	90-91°F	NO	0.510	$20.50	$19.45	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$29.22	-$29.53	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-24	90-91°F	NO	0.510	$19.53	$18.53	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$27.84	-$28.13	LOSS	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-24	90-91°F	NO	0.510	$13.99	$13.27	WIN	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$19.93	-$20.14	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-24	88-89°F	YES	0.060	$1.01	-$1.03	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$23.02	-$23.23	LOSS	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$29.22	-$29.48	LOSS	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$27.84	-$28.09	LOSS	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.710	$1.61	$0.65	WIN	82°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$5.95	-$6.00	LOSS	82°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$23.02	$3.37	WIN	86°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$23.02	$12.74	WIN	86°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$34.92	$5.10	WIN	86°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$34.92	$19.33	WIN	86°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$29.22	$4.27	WIN	86°F
h3	SEA	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$27.84	$15.41	WIN	86°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-24	88-89°F	YES	0.110	$1.16	-$1.19	LOSS	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$27.84	$16.09	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-24	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$1.02	-$1.03	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.920	$19.93	$1.69	WIN	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$19.93	$11.52	WIN	86°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-24	88-89°F	YES	0.158	$1.32	-$1.35	LOSS	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-24	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$5.17	$2.18	WIN	70°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$22.83	-$22.97	LOSS	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$22.83	$13.20	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$33.81	-$34.00	LOSS	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$30.87	-$31.05	LOSS	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$30.87	$17.84	WIN	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$29.07	$16.80	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$20.42	-$20.54	LOSS	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$20.42	$11.80	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-23	88-89°F	YES	0.048	$1.67	-$1.71	LOSS	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$22.83	$11.06	WIN	74°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$33.81	$16.37	WIN	74°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$29.07	$14.08	WIN	74°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-23	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$20.42	$3.53	WIN	74°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$20.42	$9.89	WIN	74°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-23	76-77°F	YES	0.100	$1.20	-$1.23	LOSS	74°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$22.83	$5.95	WIN	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$20.48	-$20.66	LOSS	92°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$33.81	$8.81	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$30.87	$8.04	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$27.69	-$27.93	LOSS	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$26.07	-$26.30	LOSS	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$20.42	$5.32	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$18.32	-$18.48	LOSS	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$22.83	$5.59	WIN	82°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$33.81	$8.28	WIN	82°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$30.87	$7.56	WIN	82°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.710	$7.67	-$7.73	LOSS	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$20.42	$5.00	WIN	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-23	86-87°F	NO	0.950	$20.42	$1.05	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-23	80-81°F	YES	0.230	$1.11	-$1.13	LOSS	82°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$22.83	$4.26	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$33.81	$6.30	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$30.87	$5.76	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-23	70-71°F	NO	0.430	$29.07	-$29.48	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$2.10	$0.39	WIN	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-23	76-77°F	YES	0.009	$1.54	-$1.58	LOSS	70°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$22.83	-$22.94	LOSS	74°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-23	76-77°F	NO	0.660	$2.35	$1.19	WIN	74°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$33.81	-$33.96	LOSS	74°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-23	76-77°F	NO	0.660	$33.81	$17.13	WIN	74°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$30.87	-$31.01	LOSS	74°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-23	76-77°F	NO	0.660	$29.07	$14.73	WIN	74°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-23	80-81°F	YES	0.070	$1.90	-$1.94	LOSS	74°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.460	$29.07	$33.73	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-23	88-89°F	YES	0.060	$1.05	-$1.08	LOSS	90°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-23	90-91°F	YES	0.260	$1.74	$4.93	WIN	90°F
h3	SEA	2026-06-23	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$2.63	$1.59	WIN	88°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-23	84-85°F	YES	0.200	$1.34	-$1.37	LOSS	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$26.13	$11.00	WIN	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$21.06	-$21.25	LOSS	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$33.10	$13.94	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$27.31	$11.50	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$22.01	-$22.20	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$28.60	$12.04	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$23.05	-$23.25	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-22	84-85°F	NO	0.934	$21.43	$1.48	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$21.43	$9.02	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$17.27	-$17.42	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	YES	0.200	$1.77	-$1.81	LOSS	88°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$26.13	$6.40	WIN	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$22.49	$9.47	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$33.10	$8.11	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$28.50	$12.00	WIN	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$27.31	$6.69	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$24.62	$10.37	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$21.43	$5.25	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$18.45	$7.77	WIN	94°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-22	96-97°F	YES	0.120	$1.07	-$1.09	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.680	$26.13	-$26.34	LOSS	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.680	$33.10	-$33.37	LOSS	88°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.680	$28.60	-$28.83	LOSS	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.680	$21.43	-$21.60	LOSS	88°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-22	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$26.13	$9.98	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-22	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$33.10	$12.64	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-22	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$27.31	$10.43	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-22	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$28.60	$10.92	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-22	70-71°F	NO	0.460	$28.60	-$28.98	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-22	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$21.43	$8.18	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-22	70-71°F	NO	0.460	$16.43	-$16.65	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-22	72-73°F	YES	0.140	$2.04	-$2.09	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-22	74-75°F	YES	0.016	$2.35	-$2.41	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-22	94-95°F	NO	0.810	$26.13	$6.00	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.490	$22.12	-$22.41	LOSS	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-22	94-95°F	NO	0.810	$33.10	$7.61	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-22	94-95°F	NO	0.810	$27.31	$6.28	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.490	$23.12	-$23.42	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.490	$24.21	-$24.52	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-22	88-89°F	YES	0.016	$1.36	-$1.39	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-22	90-91°F	YES	0.220	$2.01	-$2.05	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-22	74-75°F	NO	0.750	$12.71	$4.16	WIN	72°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-22	74-75°F	NO	0.750	$33.10	$10.83	WIN	72°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-22	74-75°F	NO	0.750	$27.31	$8.93	WIN	72°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-22	74-75°F	NO	0.750	$14.36	$4.70	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-22	78-79°F	YES	0.200	$1.36	-$1.39	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-22	82-83°F	YES	0.009	$1.58	-$1.62	LOSS	72°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-22	84-85°F	NO	0.580	$33.10	-$33.45	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-22	80-81°F	YES	0.090	$1.62	-$1.65	LOSS	84°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-22	70-71°F	NO	0.670	$16.20	$7.85	WIN	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-22	72-73°F	NO	0.690	$11.94	-$12.03	LOSS	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-22	70-71°F	NO	0.670	$12.14	$5.88	WIN	72°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-21	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$22.65	-$22.83	LOSS	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-21	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$22.65	$15.51	WIN	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-21	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$32.28	-$32.54	LOSS	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-21	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$33.05	-$33.32	LOSS	86°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	24/30	no
CHI	23/30	no
DAL	23/30	no
DEN	24/30	no
LAX	24/30	no
MIA	24/30	no
NYC	23/30	no
SEA	20/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$2,315.93.