Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated 27 min agoPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-3110486 decisions20:30:08 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-09-29: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 39 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 6, 'h2': 6, 'h3': 9, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 34, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-09-29T20:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 24 snapshots written
rendered 2026-09-29 20:30:08 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

4759

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$5,144.93

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 4759 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	1067	17	732	58%	-0.0781	-0.0816	-0.1854	-$911.93	$11,676
baseline	secondary	FAIL	954	15	667	67%	-0.0775	-0.0804	-0.0406	-$885.27	$11,424
h1	secondary	FAIL	727	12	573	73%	-0.0350	-0.0367	-0.0700	-$699.42	$19,980
h2	secondary	FAIL	733	11	546	71%	-0.0541	-0.0567	-0.0352	-$762.96	$14,106
h4	secondary	FAIL	1022	18	534	65%	-0.0955	-0.0991	-0.0705	-$905.28	$9,481
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions73 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-09-29	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$4.29	0.119	0.881
baseline	DEN	2026-09-29	70-71°F	NO	0.810	$4.29	0.017	0.983
baseline	DEN	2026-09-29	72-73°F	NO	0.930	$4.29	0.006	0.994
baseline	LAX	2026-09-29	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$4.29	0.064	0.936
baseline	LAX	2026-09-29	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$4.29	0.155	0.845
baseline	SEA	2026-09-29	64-65°F	NO	0.670	$4.29	0.193	0.807
h1	ATL	2026-09-29	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$12.50	0.119	0.881
h1	DEN	2026-09-29	70-71°F	NO	0.810	$12.50	0.017	0.983
h1	DEN	2026-09-29	72-73°F	NO	0.930	$12.50	0.006	0.994
h1	LAX	2026-09-29	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$12.50	0.064	0.936
h1	LAX	2026-09-29	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$12.50	0.155	0.845
h1	SEA	2026-09-29	64-65°F	NO	0.670	$12.50	0.193	0.807
h2	ATL	2026-09-29	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$9.17	0.119	0.881
h2	DEN	2026-09-29	70-71°F	NO	0.810	$9.17	0.017	0.983
h2	DEN	2026-09-29	72-73°F	NO	0.930	$9.17	0.006	0.994
h2	LAX	2026-09-29	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$9.17	0.064	0.936
h2	LAX	2026-09-29	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$9.17	0.155	0.845
h3	ATL	2026-09-29	84-85°F	NO	0.420	$3.28	0.270	0.730
h3	CHI	2026-09-29	76-77°F	NO	0.470	$2.10	0.310	0.690
h3	DAL	2026-09-29	92-93°F	NO	0.520	$3.28	0.256	0.744
h3	DAL	2026-09-29	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$3.28	0.115	0.885
h3	DEN	2026-09-29	68-69°F	NO	0.710	$3.28	0.057	0.943
h3	LAX	2026-09-29	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$3.28	0.155	0.845
h3	NYC	2026-09-29	70-71°F	NO	0.400	$3.10	0.304	0.696
h3	SEA	2026-09-29	64-65°F	NO	0.670	$3.28	0.193	0.807
h4	ATL	2026-09-29	84-85°F	NO	0.420	$3.33	0.270	0.730
h4	CHI	2026-09-29	76-77°F	NO	0.470	$2.13	0.310	0.690
h4	DAL	2026-09-29	92-93°F	NO	0.520	$3.33	0.256	0.744
h4	DAL	2026-09-29	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$3.33	0.115	0.885
h4	DEN	2026-09-29	66-67°F	NO	0.790	$1.47	0.188	0.812
h4	DEN	2026-09-29	68-69°F	NO	0.710	$3.33	0.057	0.943
h4	DEN	2026-09-29	70-71°F	NO	0.810	$3.33	0.017	0.983
h4	DEN	2026-09-29	72-73°F	NO	0.930	$3.33	0.006	0.994
h4	LAX	2026-09-29	76-77°F	NO	0.942	$3.07	0.025	0.975
baseline	ATL	2026-09-30	84-85°F	NO	0.840	$4.44	0.095	0.905
baseline	CHI	2026-09-30	68-69°F	NO	0.510	$2.59	0.302	0.698
baseline	DAL	2026-09-30	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$4.22	0.311	0.689
baseline	DAL	2026-09-30	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$4.44	0.215	0.785
baseline	DEN	2026-09-30	62-63°F	NO	0.810	$4.44	0.079	0.921
baseline	DEN	2026-09-30	64-65°F	NO	0.900	$4.44	0.023	0.977
baseline	MIA	2026-09-30	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$4.44	0.200	0.800
baseline	NYC	2026-09-30	74-75°F	NO	0.520	$3.00	0.292	0.708
baseline	SEA	2026-09-30	66-67°F	NO	0.800	$3.52	0.048	0.952
h1	ATL	2026-09-30	84-85°F	NO	0.840	$11.26	0.095	0.905
h1	DAL	2026-09-30	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$11.26	0.215	0.785
h1	DEN	2026-09-30	62-63°F	NO	0.810	$11.26	0.079	0.921
h1	DEN	2026-09-30	64-65°F	NO	0.900	$11.26	0.023	0.977
h1	MIA	2026-09-30	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$11.26	0.200	0.800
h1	SEA	2026-09-30	66-67°F	NO	0.800	$11.26	0.048	0.952
h2	ATL	2026-09-30	84-85°F	NO	0.840	$9.55	0.095	0.905
h2	CHI	2026-09-30	68-69°F	NO	0.510	$5.57	0.302	0.698
h2	DEN	2026-09-30	62-63°F	NO	0.810	$9.55	0.079	0.921
h2	DEN	2026-09-30	64-65°F	NO	0.900	$9.55	0.023	0.977
h2	NYC	2026-09-30	74-75°F	NO	0.520	$6.44	0.292	0.708
h2	SEA	2026-09-30	66-67°F	NO	0.800	$9.55	0.048	0.952
h3	ATL	2026-09-30	86-87°F	NO	0.380	$3.15	0.237	0.763
h3	CHI	2026-09-30	68-69°F	NO	0.510	$1.84	0.302	0.698
h3	DAL	2026-09-30	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$2.99	0.311	0.689
h3	DAL	2026-09-30	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$3.15	0.215	0.785
h3	DEN	2026-09-30	60-61°F	NO	0.710	$2.43	0.241	0.759
h3	LAX	2026-09-30	78-79°F	NO	0.500	$3.15	0.045	0.955
h3	LAX	2026-09-30	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$3.15	0.115	0.885
h3	MIA	2026-09-30	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$3.15	0.200	0.800
h3	NYC	2026-09-30	74-75°F	NO	0.520	$2.12	0.292	0.708
h4	ATL	2026-09-30	84-85°F	NO	0.840	$3.39	0.095	0.905
h4	ATL	2026-09-30	86-87°F	NO	0.380	$3.39	0.237	0.763
h4	CHI	2026-09-30	68-69°F	NO	0.510	$1.98	0.302	0.698
h4	DAL	2026-09-30	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$3.22	0.311	0.689
h4	DAL	2026-09-30	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$3.39	0.215	0.785
h4	DEN	2026-09-30	60-61°F	NO	0.710	$2.63	0.241	0.759
h4	DEN	2026-09-30	62-63°F	NO	0.810	$3.39	0.079	0.921
h4	DEN	2026-09-30	64-65°F	NO	0.900	$3.39	0.023	0.977
h4	LAX	2026-09-30	78-79°F	NO	0.500	$2.35	0.045	0.955

Settlements4759 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-09-28	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$4.25	-$4.28	LOSS	80°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-28	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$12.47	-$12.57	LOSS	80°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-28	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$9.98	-$10.06	LOSS	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-28	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$3.01	-$3.03	LOSS	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-28	82-83°F	NO	0.450	$3.01	$3.63	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-28	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$3.21	-$3.24	LOSS	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-28	82-83°F	NO	0.450	$3.21	$3.88	WIN	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-28	74-75°F	NO	0.650	$3.41	$1.81	WIN	72°F
h2	CHI	2026-09-28	74-75°F	NO	0.650	$8.01	$4.24	WIN	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.470	$3.01	-$3.05	LOSS	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-28	74-75°F	NO	0.650	$2.42	$1.28	WIN	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.470	$3.21	-$3.25	LOSS	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-28	74-75°F	NO	0.650	$2.58	$1.37	WIN	72°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-28	70-71°F	NO	0.820	$4.25	$0.91	WIN	68°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$4.25	$1.79	WIN	68°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-28	70-71°F	NO	0.820	$12.47	$2.68	WIN	68°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$12.47	$5.25	WIN	68°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-28	70-71°F	NO	0.820	$9.98	$2.15	WIN	68°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$3.01	$1.27	WIN	68°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-28	70-71°F	NO	0.820	$3.21	$0.69	WIN	68°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$3.21	$1.35	WIN	68°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-28	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$4.25	$2.15	WIN	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-28	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$9.98	$5.06	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-28	76-77°F	NO	0.420	$2.42	-$2.46	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-28	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$2.08	$1.05	WIN	76°F
baseline	MIA	2026-09-28	88-89°F	NO	0.500	$2.67	-$2.70	LOSS	88°F
baseline	MIA	2026-09-28	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$4.25	$1.70	WIN	88°F
h1	MIA	2026-09-28	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$12.47	$5.00	WIN	88°F
h2	MIA	2026-09-28	88-89°F	NO	0.500	$6.27	-$6.34	LOSS	88°F
h2	MIA	2026-09-28	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$9.98	$4.00	WIN	88°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-28	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$2.11	-$2.12	LOSS	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-28	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$3.01	$1.59	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-28	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$3.21	$1.70	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-28	96-97°F	NO	0.910	$3.21	$0.31	WIN	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-27	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$4.80	-$4.85	LOSS	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.560	$3.72	$2.88	WIN	80°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-27	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$12.60	-$12.71	LOSS	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-27	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$3.38	-$3.41	LOSS	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.560	$2.61	$2.02	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-27	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$3.41	-$3.45	LOSS	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.560	$2.64	$2.05	WIN	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-27	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$3.38	$1.96	WIN	72°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-27	72-73°F	NO	0.580	$4.80	-$4.85	LOSS	72°F
h2	CHI	2026-09-27	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$7.35	$4.25	WIN	72°F
h2	CHI	2026-09-27	72-73°F	NO	0.580	$10.44	-$10.55	LOSS	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-27	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$2.38	$1.38	WIN	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-27	72-73°F	NO	0.580	$3.38	-$3.41	LOSS	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-27	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$2.41	$1.39	WIN	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-27	72-73°F	NO	0.580	$3.41	-$3.45	LOSS	72°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-27	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$4.80	$2.22	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-09-27	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$12.60	$5.83	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-27	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$3.38	$1.56	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-27	90-91°F	NO	0.890	$2.58	$0.31	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-27	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$3.41	$1.58	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-27	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$4.80	-$4.84	LOSS	84°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-27	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$12.60	-$12.68	LOSS	84°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-27	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$10.44	-$10.50	LOSS	84°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.430	$3.38	$4.43	WIN	84°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-27	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$3.38	-$3.40	LOSS	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.430	$3.41	$4.48	WIN	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-27	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$3.41	-$3.44	LOSS	84°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-27	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$4.80	$1.25	WIN	84°F
h1	LAX	2026-09-27	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$12.60	$3.28	WIN	84°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-27	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$10.44	$2.72	WIN	84°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-27	80-81°F	NO	0.560	$3.38	$2.62	WIN	84°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.720	$1.76	$0.67	WIN	84°F
h4	LAX	2026-09-27	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$2.62	$0.68	WIN	84°F
baseline	MIA	2026-09-27	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$4.80	-$4.85	LOSS	88°F
h1	MIA	2026-09-27	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$12.60	-$12.72	LOSS	88°F
baseline	NYC	2026-09-27	62-63°F	NO	0.770	$2.51	$0.73	WIN	64°F
h1	NYC	2026-09-27	62-63°F	NO	0.770	$12.60	$3.69	WIN	64°F
h2	NYC	2026-09-27	62-63°F	NO	0.770	$10.44	$3.06	WIN	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-09-27	64-65°F	NO	0.550	$10.44	-$10.55	LOSS	64°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$3.84	$1.06	WIN	80°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$13.28	$3.67	WIN	80°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$9.13	$2.52	WIN	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-26	80-81°F	NO	0.470	$3.04	-$3.08	LOSS	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$3.07	$0.85	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-26	80-81°F	NO	0.470	$3.07	-$3.11	LOSS	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-26	70-71°F	NO	0.610	$3.84	$2.42	WIN	68°F
h2	CHI	2026-09-26	70-71°F	NO	0.610	$9.13	$5.75	WIN	68°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-26	68-69°F	NO	0.480	$1.75	-$1.77	LOSS	68°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-26	70-71°F	NO	0.610	$3.04	$1.92	WIN	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-26	68-69°F	NO	0.480	$1.77	-$1.79	LOSS	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-26	70-71°F	NO	0.610	$3.07	$1.93	WIN	68°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$3.84	$1.33	WIN	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-26	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$3.84	$2.32	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$13.28	$4.58	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-09-26	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$13.28	$8.01	WIN	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$9.13	$3.15	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$3.04	$1.05	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-26	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$3.04	$1.84	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$3.07	$1.06	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-26	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$3.07	$1.85	WIN	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$3.84	$1.13	WIN	80°F
h1	LAX	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$13.28	$3.89	WIN	80°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$9.13	$2.67	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-26	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$3.04	-$3.07	LOSS	80°F
baseline	NYC	2026-09-26	62-63°F	NO	0.630	$1.92	-$1.94	LOSS	62°F
h2	NYC	2026-09-26	62-63°F	NO	0.630	$4.57	-$4.61	LOSS	62°F
h3	NYC	2026-09-26	62-63°F	NO	0.630	$1.29	-$1.30	LOSS	62°F
baseline	SEA	2026-09-26	64-65°F	NO	0.720	$3.84	-$3.87	LOSS	64°F
h1	SEA	2026-09-26	64-65°F	NO	0.720	$13.28	-$13.37	LOSS	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-09-26	64-65°F	NO	0.720	$9.13	-$9.19	LOSS	64°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-26	82-83°F	NO	0.440	$3.04	-$3.09	LOSS	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-26	82-83°F	NO	0.440	$3.07	-$3.11	LOSS	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-26	84-85°F	NO	0.760	$3.07	$0.95	WIN	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-26	86-87°F	NO	0.960	$1.30	$0.05	WIN	82°F
h3	MIA	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.520	$3.04	$2.77	WIN	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.790	$4.55	$1.19	WIN	76°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.790	$13.45	$3.50	WIN	76°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.790	$9.73	$2.53	WIN	76°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.550	$3.70	-$3.74	LOSS	76°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.790	$3.51	$0.92	WIN	76°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.550	$3.51	-$3.55	LOSS	76°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-25	68-69°F	NO	0.550	$4.55	$3.67	WIN	64°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.730	$4.55	$1.65	WIN	64°F
h1	CHI	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.730	$13.45	$4.88	WIN	64°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-25	68-69°F	NO	0.550	$3.70	$2.98	WIN	64°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.730	$3.70	$1.34	WIN	64°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-25	68-69°F	NO	0.550	$3.51	$2.84	WIN	64°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.730	$3.51	$1.28	WIN	64°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.740	$4.55	-$4.58	LOSS	76°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-25	78-79°F	NO	0.620	$4.55	$2.74	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.740	$13.45	-$13.54	LOSS	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.740	$9.73	-$9.79	LOSS	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-25	78-79°F	NO	0.620	$9.73	$5.87	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.740	$3.70	-$3.72	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-25	78-79°F	NO	0.620	$3.70	$2.23	WIN	76°F
h4	LAX	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.740	$3.51	-$3.54	LOSS	76°F
h4	LAX	2026-09-25	78-79°F	NO	0.620	$3.51	$2.12	WIN	76°F
baseline	MIA	2026-09-25	88-89°F	NO	0.500	$4.55	$4.49	WIN	90°F
h2	MIA	2026-09-25	88-89°F	NO	0.500	$9.73	$9.61	WIN	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-09-25	88-89°F	NO	0.500	$3.70	$3.65	WIN	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-09-25	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$2.38	-$2.40	LOSS	90°F
h4	MIA	2026-09-25	88-89°F	NO	0.500	$2.26	$2.23	WIN	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-09-25	68-69°F	NO	0.800	$4.55	-$4.57	LOSS	68°F
baseline	NYC	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.590	$4.55	$3.11	WIN	68°F
h1	NYC	2026-09-25	68-69°F	NO	0.800	$13.45	-$13.52	LOSS	68°F
h2	NYC	2026-09-25	68-69°F	NO	0.800	$9.73	-$9.78	LOSS	68°F
h2	NYC	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.590	$9.73	$6.66	WIN	68°F
h1	SEA	2026-09-25	58-59°F	NO	0.760	$13.45	$4.17	WIN	62°F
h2	SEA	2026-09-25	58-59°F	NO	0.760	$9.73	$3.01	WIN	62°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-25	88-89°F	NO	0.600	$3.70	$2.43	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-25	88-89°F	NO	0.600	$3.51	$2.31	WIN	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.620	$1.32	-$1.33	LOSS	74°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.620	$1.25	-$1.27	LOSS	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-24	68-69°F	NO	0.790	$3.57	$0.93	WIN	70°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-24	68-69°F	NO	0.790	$10.16	$2.65	WIN	70°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-24	68-69°F	NO	0.790	$8.96	$2.33	WIN	70°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-24	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$3.02	-$3.04	LOSS	70°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-24	68-69°F	NO	0.790	$3.00	$0.78	WIN	70°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-24	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$3.00	-$3.02	LOSS	70°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-24	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$3.57	$0.88	WIN	92°F
h1	DAL	2026-09-24	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$10.16	$2.49	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-09-24	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$8.96	$2.19	WIN	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-24	92-93°F	NO	0.520	$3.02	-$3.06	LOSS	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-24	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$3.00	$0.73	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-24	92-93°F	NO	0.520	$3.00	-$3.03	LOSS	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-24	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$3.57	$1.36	WIN	70°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-24	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$3.57	$0.52	WIN	70°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-24	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$10.16	$3.88	WIN	70°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-24	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$10.16	$1.49	WIN	70°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-24	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$8.96	$3.42	WIN	70°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-24	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$8.96	$1.31	WIN	70°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-24	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$3.02	$1.15	WIN	70°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-24	62-63°F	NO	0.970	$3.00	$0.09	WIN	70°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-24	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$3.00	$1.14	WIN	70°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-24	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$3.00	$0.44	WIN	70°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-24	76-77°F	NO	0.750	$3.57	-$3.60	LOSS	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-09-24	76-77°F	NO	0.750	$10.16	-$10.23	LOSS	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-24	76-77°F	NO	0.750	$8.96	-$9.01	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-24	76-77°F	NO	0.750	$3.02	-$3.04	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-24	78-79°F	NO	0.490	$2.95	$3.03	WIN	76°F
h4	LAX	2026-09-24	74-75°F	NO	0.900	$1.11	$0.12	WIN	76°F
baseline	SEA	2026-09-24	58-59°F	NO	0.790	$3.57	$0.93	WIN	62°F
h1	SEA	2026-09-24	58-59°F	NO	0.790	$10.16	$2.65	WIN	62°F
h2	SEA	2026-09-24	58-59°F	NO	0.790	$8.96	$2.33	WIN	62°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-24	68-69°F	NO	0.440	$1.90	-$1.92	LOSS	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-24	68-69°F	NO	0.440	$1.88	-$1.91	LOSS	68°F
h3	MIA	2026-09-24	90-91°F	NO	0.480	$3.02	-$3.06	LOSS	90°F
h3	NYC	2026-09-24	66-67°F	NO	0.450	$2.95	$3.56	WIN	68°F
h3	NYC	2026-09-24	68-69°F	NO	0.700	$1.27	-$1.28	LOSS	68°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$4.04	$0.87	WIN	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-23	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$4.04	$1.54	WIN	80°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$13.44	$2.89	WIN	80°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-23	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$13.44	$5.13	WIN	80°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$8.86	$1.91	WIN	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-23	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$2.73	$1.04	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$3.04	$0.65	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-23	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$3.04	$1.16	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-23	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$1.68	-$1.69	LOSS	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-23	64-65°F	NO	0.620	$4.04	$2.44	WIN	68°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-23	66-67°F	NO	0.500	$3.90	$3.85	WIN	68°F
h1	CHI	2026-09-23	64-65°F	NO	0.620	$13.44	$8.11	WIN	68°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-23	64-65°F	NO	0.620	$2.73	$1.65	WIN	68°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-23	66-67°F	NO	0.500	$2.63	$2.60	WIN	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-23	64-65°F	NO	0.620	$3.04	$1.83	WIN	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-23	66-67°F	NO	0.500	$2.93	$2.90	WIN	68°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-23	92-93°F	NO	0.790	$4.04	$1.05	WIN	98°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	118/30	yes
CHI	117/30	yes
DAL	117/30	yes
DEN	117/30	yes
LAX	118/30	yes
MIA	115/30	yes
NYC	105/30	yes
SEA	92/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$5,144.93.