Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated 28 min agoPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-313040 decisions20:30:07 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-07-05: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 39 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 5, 'h2': 6, 'h3': 9, 'h4': 10, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 39, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-07-05T20:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-07-05 20:30:07 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

1537

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$3,073.40

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 1537 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	298	18	211	60%	-0.0691	-0.0748	-0.0792	-$487.96	$7,064
baseline	secondary	FAIL	273	18	188	65%	-0.0907	-0.0959	-0.0114	-$586.69	$6,469
h1	secondary	FAIL	219	13	168	75%	+0.0080	+0.0039	-0.0320	$63.52	$7,964
h2	secondary	FAIL	197	15	148	71%	-0.0695	-0.0759	-0.0351	-$408.18	$5,875
h4	secondary	FAIL	294	18	159	65%	-0.1088	-0.1144	+0.0208	-$674.02	$6,192
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions82 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-07-05	90-91°F	NO	0.770	$14.40	0.041	0.959
baseline	CHI	2026-07-05	74-75°F	NO	0.830	$14.40	0.063	0.937
baseline	CHI	2026-07-05	76-77°F	NO	0.690	$14.40	0.172	0.828
baseline	DAL	2026-07-05	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$14.40	0.068	0.932
baseline	DAL	2026-07-05	98-99°F	NO	0.700	$14.40	0.180	0.820
baseline	DEN	2026-07-05	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$14.40	0.280	0.720
baseline	LAX	2026-07-05	72-73°F	NO	0.650	$14.40	0.158	0.842
baseline	LAX	2026-07-05	74-75°F	NO	0.540	$11.45	0.266	0.734
baseline	MIA	2026-07-05	90-91°F	NO	0.430	$2.95	0.386	0.614
h1	ATL	2026-07-05	90-91°F	NO	0.770	$35.65	0.041	0.959
h1	CHI	2026-07-05	74-75°F	NO	0.830	$35.65	0.063	0.937
h1	CHI	2026-07-05	76-77°F	NO	0.690	$35.65	0.172	0.828
h1	DAL	2026-07-05	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$35.65	0.068	0.932
h1	DAL	2026-07-05	98-99°F	NO	0.700	$35.65	0.180	0.820
h1	LAX	2026-07-05	72-73°F	NO	0.650	$35.65	0.158	0.842
h1	NYC	2026-07-05	80-81°F	NO	0.899	$35.65	0.018	0.982
h1	NYC	2026-07-05	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$35.65	0.051	0.949
h2	ATL	2026-07-05	90-91°F	NO	0.770	$23.05	0.041	0.959
h2	CHI	2026-07-05	74-75°F	NO	0.830	$23.05	0.063	0.937
h2	CHI	2026-07-05	76-77°F	NO	0.690	$23.05	0.172	0.828
h2	DAL	2026-07-05	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$23.05	0.068	0.932
h2	DEN	2026-07-05	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$23.05	0.280	0.720
h2	LAX	2026-07-05	72-73°F	NO	0.650	$23.05	0.158	0.842
h2	LAX	2026-07-05	74-75°F	NO	0.540	$18.32	0.266	0.734
h2	MIA	2026-07-05	90-91°F	NO	0.430	$13.75	0.386	0.614
h2	NYC	2026-07-05	80-81°F	NO	0.899	$14.02	0.018	0.982
h3	ATL	2026-07-05	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$17.86	0.122	0.878
h3	CHI	2026-07-05	76-77°F	NO	0.690	$17.86	0.172	0.828
h3	DAL	2026-07-05	98-99°F	NO	0.700	$17.86	0.180	0.820
h3	DEN	2026-07-05	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$17.86	0.280	0.720
h3	DEN	2026-07-05	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$17.86	0.100	0.900
h3	LAX	2026-07-05	72-73°F	NO	0.650	$17.86	0.158	0.842
h3	LAX	2026-07-05	74-75°F	NO	0.540	$14.20	0.266	0.734
h3	MIA	2026-07-05	90-91°F	NO	0.430	$10.66	0.386	0.614
h3	NYC	2026-07-05	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$10.87	0.139	0.861
h4	ATL	2026-07-05	88-89°F	NO	0.969	$11.73	0.014	0.986
h4	ATL	2026-07-05	90-91°F	NO	0.770	$11.73	0.041	0.959
h4	ATL	2026-07-05	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$11.73	0.122	0.878
h4	CHI	2026-07-05	74-75°F	NO	0.830	$11.73	0.063	0.937
h4	CHI	2026-07-05	76-77°F	NO	0.690	$11.73	0.172	0.828
h4	DAL	2026-07-05	94-95°F	NO	0.960	$11.73	0.023	0.977
h4	DAL	2026-07-05	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$11.73	0.068	0.932
h4	DAL	2026-07-05	98-99°F	NO	0.700	$11.73	0.180	0.820
baseline	ATL	2026-07-06	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$9.32	0.320	0.680
baseline	CHI	2026-07-06	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$11.52	0.274	0.726
baseline	DAL	2026-07-06	93°F or below	NO	0.770	$14.86	0.119	0.881
baseline	DAL	2026-07-06	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$14.86	0.195	0.805
baseline	DEN	2026-07-06	96-97°F	NO	0.540	$14.86	0.296	0.704
baseline	LAX	2026-07-06	72-73°F	NO	0.770	$14.86	0.097	0.903
baseline	LAX	2026-07-06	74-75°F	NO	0.610	$14.86	0.208	0.792
baseline	MIA	2026-07-06	90-91°F	NO	0.500	$9.95	0.400	0.600
baseline	NYC	2026-07-06	74-75°F	NO	0.610	$13.79	0.251	0.749
h1	DAL	2026-07-06	93°F or below	NO	0.770	$38.84	0.119	0.881
h1	DAL	2026-07-06	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$38.84	0.195	0.805
h1	LAX	2026-07-06	72-73°F	NO	0.770	$38.84	0.097	0.903
h1	LAX	2026-07-06	74-75°F	NO	0.610	$38.84	0.208	0.792
h1	SEA	2026-07-06	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$38.84	0.137	0.863
h2	CHI	2026-07-06	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$15.73	0.274	0.726
h2	DAL	2026-07-06	93°F or below	NO	0.770	$20.30	0.119	0.881
h2	DEN	2026-07-06	96-97°F	NO	0.540	$20.30	0.296	0.704
h2	LAX	2026-07-06	72-73°F	NO	0.770	$20.30	0.097	0.903
h2	NYC	2026-07-06	74-75°F	NO	0.610	$20.30	0.251	0.749
h2	SEA	2026-07-06	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$20.30	0.137	0.863
h3	ATL	2026-07-06	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$11.54	0.320	0.680
h3	CHI	2026-07-06	78-79°F	NO	0.680	$5.80	0.293	0.707
h3	CHI	2026-07-06	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$14.25	0.274	0.726
h3	DAL	2026-07-06	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$18.39	0.195	0.805
h3	DAL	2026-07-06	96-97°F	NO	0.670	$4.08	0.308	0.692
h3	DEN	2026-07-06	96-97°F	NO	0.540	$18.39	0.296	0.704
h3	LAX	2026-07-06	74-75°F	NO	0.610	$18.39	0.208	0.792
h3	MIA	2026-07-06	90-91°F	NO	0.500	$12.31	0.400	0.600
h3	NYC	2026-07-06	74-75°F	NO	0.610	$18.39	0.251	0.749
h4	ATL	2026-07-06	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$7.27	0.320	0.680
h4	CHI	2026-07-06	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$8.98	0.274	0.726
h4	DAL	2026-07-06	93°F or below	NO	0.770	$11.58	0.119	0.881
h4	DAL	2026-07-06	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$11.58	0.195	0.805
h4	DEN	2026-07-06	96-97°F	NO	0.540	$11.58	0.296	0.704
h4	DEN	2026-07-06	98-99°F	NO	0.869	$8.19	0.110	0.890
h4	LAX	2026-07-06	72-73°F	NO	0.770	$11.58	0.097	0.903
h4	LAX	2026-07-06	74-75°F	NO	0.610	$11.58	0.208	0.792
h4	MIA	2026-07-06	88-89°F	NO	0.800	$5.61	0.177	0.823
h4	MIA	2026-07-06	90-91°F	NO	0.500	$4.71	0.400	0.600

Settlements1537 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-07-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$16.69	-$16.75	LOSS	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$16.69	$5.46	WIN	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$43.66	-$43.82	LOSS	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$43.66	$14.28	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$25.49	-$25.58	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-04	94-95°F	NO	0.580	$18.99	$13.55	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$18.99	$6.21	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$12.44	-$12.49	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-04	94-95°F	NO	0.580	$12.44	$8.88	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$12.44	$4.07	WIN	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-04	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$16.69	$8.84	WIN	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-04	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$43.66	$23.13	WIN	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-04	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$25.49	$13.50	WIN	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-04	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$18.99	$10.06	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-04	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$12.44	$6.59	WIN	82°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.780	$16.69	$4.61	WIN	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.650	$16.69	-$16.83	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.780	$43.66	$12.07	WIN	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.650	$43.66	-$44.04	LOSS	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.780	$25.49	$7.05	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.650	$18.99	-$19.16	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.780	$12.44	$3.44	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.650	$12.44	-$12.55	LOSS	98°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-04	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$7.27	-$7.35	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-04	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$7.92	-$8.01	LOSS	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-04	94-95°F	NO	0.890	$16.69	$2.02	WIN	96°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.640	$16.69	$9.24	WIN	96°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-04	94-95°F	NO	0.890	$43.66	$5.28	WIN	96°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.640	$43.66	$24.16	WIN	96°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-04	94-95°F	NO	0.890	$25.49	$3.08	WIN	96°F
baseline	SEA	2026-07-04	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$9.42	$1.76	WIN	70°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-04	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$43.66	$8.14	WIN	70°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-04	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$25.49	$4.75	WIN	70°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-04	88-89°F	NO	0.470	$18.99	-$19.24	LOSS	88°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-04	90-91°F	NO	0.680	$18.99	$8.78	WIN	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-04	88-89°F	NO	0.470	$12.44	-$12.61	LOSS	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-04	90-91°F	NO	0.680	$12.44	$5.75	WIN	88°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-04	72-73°F	NO	0.480	$18.99	$20.33	WIN	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-04	74-75°F	NO	0.726	$11.07	-$11.15	LOSS	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.830	$14.20	-$14.26	LOSS	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.670	$14.20	$6.88	WIN	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.830	$35.45	-$35.60	LOSS	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.670	$35.45	$17.17	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.830	$20.31	-$20.40	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-03	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$16.66	$7.01	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.670	$16.66	$8.07	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.830	$11.67	-$11.72	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-03	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$11.67	$4.91	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.670	$11.67	$5.65	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-07-03	100-101°F	YES	0.055	$1.11	-$1.13	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-03	88-89°F	NO	0.630	$9.03	$5.22	WIN	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-03	88-89°F	NO	0.630	$10.60	$6.12	WIN	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-03	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$9.98	-$10.05	LOSS	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-03	88-89°F	NO	0.630	$7.42	$4.29	WIN	86°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.690	$14.20	-$14.31	LOSS	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.690	$35.45	-$35.72	LOSS	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-03	94-95°F	NO	0.550	$16.66	$13.44	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.690	$16.66	-$16.79	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.920	$11.67	$0.99	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-03	94-95°F	NO	0.550	$11.67	$9.41	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.690	$11.67	-$11.76	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$14.20	-$14.34	LOSS	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$35.45	-$35.78	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-03	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$6.14	$4.03	WIN	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$16.66	-$16.82	LOSS	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$11.67	-$11.78	LOSS	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-03	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$6.95	-$7.03	LOSS	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-03	98-99°F	NO	0.880	$14.20	$1.89	WIN	100°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-03	102-103°F	NO	0.690	$14.20	$6.27	WIN	100°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-03	98-99°F	NO	0.880	$35.45	$4.73	WIN	100°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-03	102-103°F	NO	0.690	$35.45	$15.65	WIN	100°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-03	98-99°F	NO	0.880	$20.31	$2.71	WIN	100°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-03	102-103°F	NO	0.690	$20.31	$8.97	WIN	100°F
baseline	SEA	2026-07-03	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$12.42	$3.85	WIN	72°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-03	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$35.45	$10.98	WIN	72°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-03	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$20.31	$6.29	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-03	70-71°F	NO	0.670	$16.66	$8.07	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-03	72-73°F	NO	0.510	$6.60	-$6.68	LOSS	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-03	70-71°F	NO	0.670	$4.25	$2.06	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-07-03	76-77°F	YES	0.013	$1.04	-$1.06	LOSS	72°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$14.29	$4.67	WIN	94°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$38.61	$12.63	WIN	94°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$20.27	$6.63	WIN	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$18.29	$5.98	WIN	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.580	$18.29	-$18.48	LOSS	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$12.51	$4.09	WIN	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.580	$12.51	-$12.64	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$14.29	$3.50	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$38.61	$9.46	WIN	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$20.27	$4.97	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.560	$18.29	-$18.49	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$12.51	$3.07	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.560	$12.51	-$12.65	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$14.29	$12.01	WIN	90°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.830	$14.29	$2.87	WIN	90°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$38.61	$32.45	WIN	90°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.830	$38.61	$7.74	WIN	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.830	$20.27	$4.07	WIN	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$18.29	$15.37	WIN	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$12.51	$10.51	WIN	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.830	$12.51	$2.51	WIN	90°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-02	68-69°F	NO	0.800	$14.29	$3.50	WIN	72°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-02	68-69°F	NO	0.800	$38.61	$9.46	WIN	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-02	68-69°F	NO	0.800	$20.27	$4.97	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-02	70-71°F	NO	0.460	$18.29	$21.22	WIN	72°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-02	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$14.29	$6.02	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-02	90-91°F	NO	0.510	$11.05	$10.48	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-02	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$38.61	$16.26	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-02	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$18.29	$7.70	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-02	98-99°F	NO	0.790	$14.29	$3.72	WIN	102°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-02	100-101°F	NO	0.590	$3.24	$2.22	WIN	102°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-02	98-99°F	NO	0.790	$38.61	$10.06	WIN	102°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-02	98-99°F	NO	0.790	$20.27	$5.28	WIN	102°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-02	100-101°F	NO	0.590	$20.27	$13.88	WIN	102°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-02	62-63°F	NO	0.879	$38.61	$5.20	WIN	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-02	62-63°F	NO	0.879	$20.27	$2.73	WIN	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-02	64-65°F	NO	0.730	$20.27	-$20.41	LOSS	64°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$18.29	$6.98	WIN	98°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-02	96-97°F	NO	0.580	$18.29	$13.05	WIN	98°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$12.51	$4.78	WIN	98°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-02	96-97°F	NO	0.580	$12.51	$8.93	WIN	98°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$16.11	$5.27	WIN	94°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$16.11	-$16.28	LOSS	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$37.19	$12.17	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$37.19	-$37.57	LOSS	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$20.04	$6.55	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$20.32	$6.65	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$20.32	-$20.53	LOSS	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.930	$14.22	$1.05	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$14.22	$4.65	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$14.22	-$14.37	LOSS	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$16.11	$2.78	WIN	94°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$37.19	$6.42	WIN	94°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$20.04	$3.46	WIN	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.620	$20.32	-$20.52	LOSS	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-01	96-97°F	NO	0.720	$2.49	$0.95	WIN	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$14.22	$2.46	WIN	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.620	$14.22	-$14.36	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.891	$16.11	$1.93	WIN	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$16.11	-$16.23	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-01	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$11.58	$7.60	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.891	$37.19	$4.45	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$37.19	-$37.47	LOSS	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.891	$20.04	$2.40	WIN	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$20.04	-$20.19	LOSS	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-01	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$14.40	$9.46	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$20.32	-$20.48	LOSS	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-01	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$14.61	$9.59	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.891	$14.22	$1.70	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$14.22	-$14.33	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-01	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$10.22	$6.71	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$16.11	-$16.30	LOSS	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$20.04	-$20.27	LOSS	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$20.32	-$20.56	LOSS	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$4.00	-$4.05	LOSS	90°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$16.11	$11.98	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$37.19	$27.66	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$12.04	$8.96	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.620	$4.53	$2.73	WIN	92°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.620	$20.04	$12.09	WIN	92°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-01	64-65°F	NO	0.790	$37.19	$9.69	WIN	62°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-01	64-65°F	NO	0.790	$20.04	$5.22	WIN	62°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-01	66-67°F	NO	0.600	$5.63	$3.70	WIN	62°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-01	68-69°F	NO	0.520	$20.32	$18.52	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-01	70-71°F	NO	0.680	$11.50	-$11.59	LOSS	70°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$16.90	$4.14	WIN	94°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$13.15	-$13.27	LOSS	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$37.75	$9.25	WIN	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$23.05	$5.65	WIN	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$17.94	-$18.10	LOSS	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$16.86	-$17.01	LOSS	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$14.51	$3.56	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$11.30	-$11.40	LOSS	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.770	$16.90	$4.95	WIN	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$16.90	-$17.05	LOSS	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$16.90	$1.84	WIN	94°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.770	$37.75	$11.06	WIN	94°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$37.75	-$38.09	LOSS	94°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$37.75	$4.10	WIN	94°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.770	$23.05	$6.75	WIN	94°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$23.05	$2.50	WIN	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$21.66	-$21.86	LOSS	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.770	$14.51	$4.25	WIN	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$14.51	-$14.65	LOSS	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$14.51	$1.58	WIN	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$16.90	$2.92	WIN	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.760	$16.90	-$17.00	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-30	96-97°F	NO	0.630	$7.39	$4.27	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$37.75	$6.52	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.760	$37.75	-$37.98	LOSS	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$23.05	$3.98	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-30	96-97°F	NO	0.630	$9.48	$5.48	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$14.51	$2.51	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.760	$14.51	-$14.60	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-30	96-97°F	NO	0.630	$6.35	$3.67	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$13.25	-$13.40	LOSS	90°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$37.75	$15.90	WIN	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$20.76	-$20.99	LOSS	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$23.05	$9.71	WIN	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$19.51	-$19.73	LOSS	90°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	33/30	yes
CHI	32/30	yes
DAL	32/30	yes
DEN	33/30	yes
LAX	33/30	yes
MIA	33/30	yes
NYC	32/30	yes
SEA	27/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$3,073.40.