Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated 27 min agoPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-312865 decisions20:30:06 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-07-03: 8 decision snapshots, 87 new decision rows, opened 39 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 8, 'h2': 5, 'h3': 9, 'h4': 8, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 41, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-07-03T20:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-07-03 20:30:06 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

1457

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$2,958.30

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 1457 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	279	19	200	61%	-0.0717	-0.0776	-0.0818	-$485.74	$6,779
baseline	secondary	FAIL	255	18	175	65%	-0.0887	-0.0941	-0.0054	-$551.85	$6,222
h1	secondary	FAIL	204	15	158	76%	+0.0167	+0.0123	-0.0229	$122.90	$7,366
h2	secondary	FAIL	188	9	140	70%	-0.0721	-0.0788	-0.0264	-$408.55	$5,666
h4	secondary	FAIL	277	17	150	65%	-0.1095	-0.1153	+0.0311	-$657.18	$5,999
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	254	2	153	9%	-0.5963	-0.7179	-0.1403	-$977.87	$1,640

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions80 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.830	$14.20	0.021	0.979
baseline	ATL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.670	$14.20	0.174	0.826
baseline	CHI	2026-07-03	88-89°F	NO	0.630	$9.03	0.314	0.686
baseline	DAL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.690	$14.20	0.234	0.766
baseline	DEN	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$14.20	0.239	0.761
baseline	MIA	2026-07-03	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$6.95	0.409	0.591
baseline	NYC	2026-07-03	98-99°F	NO	0.880	$14.20	0.022	0.978
baseline	NYC	2026-07-03	102-103°F	NO	0.690	$14.20	0.161	0.839
baseline	SEA	2026-07-03	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$12.42	0.147	0.853
h1	ATL	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.830	$35.45	0.021	0.979
h1	ATL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.670	$35.45	0.174	0.826
h1	DAL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.690	$35.45	0.234	0.766
h1	DEN	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$35.45	0.239	0.761
h1	NYC	2026-07-03	98-99°F	NO	0.880	$35.45	0.022	0.978
h1	NYC	2026-07-03	102-103°F	NO	0.690	$35.45	0.161	0.839
h1	SEA	2026-07-03	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$35.45	0.147	0.853
h2	ATL	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.830	$20.31	0.021	0.979
h2	NYC	2026-07-03	98-99°F	NO	0.880	$20.31	0.022	0.978
h2	NYC	2026-07-03	102-103°F	NO	0.690	$20.31	0.161	0.839
h2	SEA	2026-07-03	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$20.31	0.147	0.853
h3	ATL	2026-07-03	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$16.66	0.062	0.938
h3	ATL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.670	$16.66	0.174	0.826
h3	CHI	2026-07-03	88-89°F	NO	0.630	$10.60	0.314	0.686
h3	CHI	2026-07-03	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$9.98	0.225	0.775
h3	DAL	2026-07-03	94-95°F	NO	0.550	$16.66	0.098	0.902
h3	DAL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.690	$16.66	0.234	0.766
h3	DEN	2026-07-03	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$6.14	0.361	0.639
h3	DEN	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$16.66	0.239	0.761
h3	LAX	2026-07-03	70-71°F	NO	0.670	$16.66	0.097	0.903
h3	LAX	2026-07-03	72-73°F	NO	0.510	$6.60	0.208	0.792
h4	ATL	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.830	$11.67	0.021	0.979
h4	ATL	2026-07-03	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$11.67	0.062	0.938
h4	ATL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.670	$11.67	0.174	0.826
h4	CHI	2026-07-03	88-89°F	NO	0.630	$7.42	0.314	0.686
h4	DAL	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.920	$11.67	0.034	0.966
h4	DAL	2026-07-03	94-95°F	NO	0.550	$11.67	0.098	0.902
h4	DAL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.690	$11.67	0.234	0.766
h4	DEN	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$11.67	0.239	0.761
h4	LAX	2026-07-03	70-71°F	NO	0.670	$4.25	0.097	0.903
yes_diag	ATL	2026-07-03	100-101°F	YES	0.055	$1.11	0.253	0.253
yes_diag	LAX	2026-07-03	76-77°F	YES	0.013	$1.04	0.198	0.198
baseline	ATL	2026-07-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$16.69	0.024	0.976
baseline	ATL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$16.69	0.195	0.805
baseline	CHI	2026-07-04	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$16.69	0.161	0.839
baseline	DAL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.780	$16.69	0.087	0.913
baseline	DAL	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.650	$16.69	0.216	0.784
baseline	MIA	2026-07-04	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$7.27	0.402	0.598
baseline	NYC	2026-07-04	94-95°F	NO	0.890	$16.69	0.032	0.968
baseline	NYC	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.640	$16.69	0.217	0.783
baseline	SEA	2026-07-04	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$9.42	0.109	0.891
h1	ATL	2026-07-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$43.66	0.024	0.976
h1	ATL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$43.66	0.195	0.805
h1	CHI	2026-07-04	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$43.66	0.161	0.839
h1	DAL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.780	$43.66	0.087	0.913
h1	DAL	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.650	$43.66	0.216	0.784
h1	NYC	2026-07-04	94-95°F	NO	0.890	$43.66	0.032	0.968
h1	NYC	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.640	$43.66	0.217	0.783
h1	SEA	2026-07-04	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$43.66	0.109	0.891
h2	ATL	2026-07-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$25.49	0.024	0.976
h2	CHI	2026-07-04	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$25.49	0.161	0.839
h2	DAL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.780	$25.49	0.087	0.913
h2	NYC	2026-07-04	94-95°F	NO	0.890	$25.49	0.032	0.968
h2	SEA	2026-07-04	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$25.49	0.109	0.891
h3	ATL	2026-07-04	94-95°F	NO	0.580	$18.99	0.072	0.928
h3	ATL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$18.99	0.195	0.805
h3	CHI	2026-07-04	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$18.99	0.161	0.839
h3	DAL	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.650	$18.99	0.216	0.784
h3	DEN	2026-07-04	88-89°F	NO	0.470	$18.99	0.283	0.717
h3	DEN	2026-07-04	90-91°F	NO	0.680	$18.99	0.101	0.899
h3	LAX	2026-07-04	72-73°F	NO	0.480	$18.99	0.121	0.879
h3	LAX	2026-07-04	74-75°F	NO	0.726	$11.07	0.238	0.762
h3	MIA	2026-07-04	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$7.92	0.402	0.598
h4	ATL	2026-07-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$12.44	0.024	0.976
h4	ATL	2026-07-04	94-95°F	NO	0.580	$12.44	0.072	0.928
h4	ATL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$12.44	0.195	0.805
h4	CHI	2026-07-04	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$12.44	0.161	0.839
h4	DAL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.780	$12.44	0.087	0.913
h4	DAL	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.650	$12.44	0.216	0.784
h4	DEN	2026-07-04	88-89°F	NO	0.470	$12.44	0.283	0.717
h4	DEN	2026-07-04	90-91°F	NO	0.680	$12.44	0.101	0.899

Settlements1457 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	CHI	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$14.29	$4.67	WIN	94°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$38.61	$12.63	WIN	94°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$20.27	$6.63	WIN	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$18.29	$5.98	WIN	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.580	$18.29	-$18.48	LOSS	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$12.51	$4.09	WIN	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.580	$12.51	-$12.64	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$14.29	$3.50	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$38.61	$9.46	WIN	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$20.27	$4.97	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.560	$18.29	-$18.49	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$12.51	$3.07	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.560	$12.51	-$12.65	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$14.29	$12.01	WIN	90°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.830	$14.29	$2.87	WIN	90°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$38.61	$32.45	WIN	90°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.830	$38.61	$7.74	WIN	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.830	$20.27	$4.07	WIN	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$18.29	$15.37	WIN	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$12.51	$10.51	WIN	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.830	$12.51	$2.51	WIN	90°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-02	68-69°F	NO	0.800	$14.29	$3.50	WIN	72°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-02	68-69°F	NO	0.800	$38.61	$9.46	WIN	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-02	68-69°F	NO	0.800	$20.27	$4.97	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-02	70-71°F	NO	0.460	$18.29	$21.22	WIN	72°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-02	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$14.29	$6.02	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-02	90-91°F	NO	0.510	$11.05	$10.48	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-02	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$38.61	$16.26	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-02	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$18.29	$7.70	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-02	98-99°F	NO	0.790	$14.29	$3.72	WIN	102°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-02	100-101°F	NO	0.590	$3.24	$2.22	WIN	102°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-02	98-99°F	NO	0.790	$38.61	$10.06	WIN	102°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-02	98-99°F	NO	0.790	$20.27	$5.28	WIN	102°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-02	100-101°F	NO	0.590	$20.27	$13.88	WIN	102°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-02	62-63°F	NO	0.879	$38.61	$5.20	WIN	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-02	62-63°F	NO	0.879	$20.27	$2.73	WIN	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-02	64-65°F	NO	0.730	$20.27	-$20.41	LOSS	64°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$18.29	$6.98	WIN	98°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-02	96-97°F	NO	0.580	$18.29	$13.05	WIN	98°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$12.51	$4.78	WIN	98°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-02	96-97°F	NO	0.580	$12.51	$8.93	WIN	98°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$16.11	$5.27	WIN	94°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$16.11	-$16.28	LOSS	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$37.19	$12.17	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$37.19	-$37.57	LOSS	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$20.04	$6.55	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$20.32	$6.65	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$20.32	-$20.53	LOSS	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.930	$14.22	$1.05	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$14.22	$4.65	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$14.22	-$14.37	LOSS	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$16.11	$2.78	WIN	94°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$37.19	$6.42	WIN	94°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$20.04	$3.46	WIN	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.620	$20.32	-$20.52	LOSS	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-01	96-97°F	NO	0.720	$2.49	$0.95	WIN	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$14.22	$2.46	WIN	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.620	$14.22	-$14.36	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.891	$16.11	$1.93	WIN	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$16.11	-$16.23	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-01	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$11.58	$7.60	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.891	$37.19	$4.45	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$37.19	-$37.47	LOSS	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.891	$20.04	$2.40	WIN	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$20.04	-$20.19	LOSS	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-01	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$14.40	$9.46	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$20.32	-$20.48	LOSS	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-01	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$14.61	$9.59	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.891	$14.22	$1.70	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$14.22	-$14.33	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-01	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$10.22	$6.71	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$16.11	-$16.30	LOSS	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$20.04	-$20.27	LOSS	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$20.32	-$20.56	LOSS	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$4.00	-$4.05	LOSS	90°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$16.11	$11.98	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$37.19	$27.66	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$12.04	$8.96	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.620	$4.53	$2.73	WIN	92°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.620	$20.04	$12.09	WIN	92°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-01	64-65°F	NO	0.790	$37.19	$9.69	WIN	62°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-01	64-65°F	NO	0.790	$20.04	$5.22	WIN	62°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-01	66-67°F	NO	0.600	$5.63	$3.70	WIN	62°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-01	68-69°F	NO	0.520	$20.32	$18.52	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-01	70-71°F	NO	0.680	$11.50	-$11.59	LOSS	70°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$16.90	$4.14	WIN	94°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$13.15	-$13.27	LOSS	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$37.75	$9.25	WIN	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$23.05	$5.65	WIN	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$17.94	-$18.10	LOSS	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$16.86	-$17.01	LOSS	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$14.51	$3.56	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$11.30	-$11.40	LOSS	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.770	$16.90	$4.95	WIN	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$16.90	-$17.05	LOSS	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$16.90	$1.84	WIN	94°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.770	$37.75	$11.06	WIN	94°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$37.75	-$38.09	LOSS	94°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$37.75	$4.10	WIN	94°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.770	$23.05	$6.75	WIN	94°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$23.05	$2.50	WIN	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$21.66	-$21.86	LOSS	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.770	$14.51	$4.25	WIN	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$14.51	-$14.65	LOSS	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$14.51	$1.58	WIN	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$16.90	$2.92	WIN	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.760	$16.90	-$17.00	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-30	96-97°F	NO	0.630	$7.39	$4.27	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$37.75	$6.52	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.760	$37.75	-$37.98	LOSS	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$23.05	$3.98	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-30	96-97°F	NO	0.630	$9.48	$5.48	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$14.51	$2.51	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.760	$14.51	-$14.60	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-30	96-97°F	NO	0.630	$6.35	$3.67	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$13.25	-$13.40	LOSS	90°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$37.75	$15.90	WIN	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$20.76	-$20.99	LOSS	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$23.05	$9.71	WIN	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$19.51	-$19.73	LOSS	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$21.66	$9.12	WIN	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$11.38	-$11.51	LOSS	90°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-30	88-89°F	YES	0.150	$1.01	-$1.04	LOSS	90°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-30	68-69°F	NO	0.700	$37.75	$15.90	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-30	68-69°F	NO	0.700	$21.66	$9.12	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-30	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$18.36	-$18.56	LOSS	70°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$19.99	-$20.18	LOSS	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.480	$10.46	$11.20	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$18.78	-$18.96	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.480	$16.32	$17.47	WIN	92°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-30	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$9.00	$3.44	WIN	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$16.59	$10.89	WIN	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$19.12	$12.56	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-29	94-95°F	NO	0.610	$24.11	-$24.34	LOSS	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$24.11	$15.83	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-29	94-95°F	NO	0.610	$16.91	-$17.07	LOSS	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$16.91	$11.10	WIN	94°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-29	98-99°F	YES	0.111	$1.41	-$1.44	LOSS	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.860	$16.59	$2.64	WIN	92°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.860	$36.73	$5.85	WIN	92°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.860	$19.12	$3.05	WIN	92°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$24.11	-$24.31	LOSS	92°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-29	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$2.59	$0.85	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-29	88-89°F	NO	0.970	$16.91	$0.51	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.860	$16.91	$2.69	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$16.91	-$17.05	LOSS	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$16.59	-$16.73	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-29	98-99°F	NO	0.620	$12.25	$7.39	WIN	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$36.73	-$37.04	LOSS	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$24.11	-$24.31	LOSS	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-29	98-99°F	NO	0.620	$17.80	$10.74	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-29	94-95°F	NO	0.879	$16.91	$2.28	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$16.91	-$17.05	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-29	98-99°F	NO	0.620	$12.48	$7.53	WIN	96°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-29	100-101°F	YES	0.100	$1.04	-$1.06	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$16.59	$7.32	WIN	88°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.897	$16.59	$1.86	WIN	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$36.73	$16.22	WIN	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.897	$36.73	$4.12	WIN	88°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$19.12	$8.44	WIN	88°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.897	$19.12	$2.15	WIN	88°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$24.11	$10.65	WIN	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$4.42	$1.95	WIN	88°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-29	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$16.59	-$16.74	LOSS	72°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-29	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$36.73	-$37.08	LOSS	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-29	70-71°F	NO	0.590	$24.11	$16.51	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-29	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$24.11	-$24.34	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-29	74-75°F	YES	0.089	$1.45	-$1.48	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-29	76-77°F	YES	0.012	$1.38	-$1.41	LOSS	72°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.450	$13.61	-$13.80	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.450	$3.72	-$3.77	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-29	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$7.31	$3.71	WIN	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-29	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$36.73	$18.61	WIN	86°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-29	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$36.73	$5.85	WIN	62°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-29	66-67°F	NO	0.640	$36.73	$20.33	WIN	62°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-29	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$19.12	$3.05	WIN	62°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-29	68-69°F	YES	0.270	$1.05	-$1.07	LOSS	62°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-28	90-91°F	NO	0.850	$17.98	$3.11	WIN	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-28	90-91°F	NO	0.850	$39.07	$6.75	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-28	90-91°F	NO	0.850	$26.18	$4.52	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-28	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$23.08	-$23.31	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-28	90-91°F	NO	0.850	$16.44	$2.84	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-28	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$16.44	-$16.60	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-28	96-97°F	YES	0.075	$1.76	-$1.80	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-28	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$17.98	-$18.02	LOSS	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-28	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$17.98	$6.53	WIN	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-28	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$17.98	$8.71	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-28	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$39.07	-$39.15	LOSS	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-28	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$39.07	$14.19	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-28	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$39.07	$18.92	WIN	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-28	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$26.18	-$26.23	LOSS	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-28	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$26.18	$9.51	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-28	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$23.08	$8.38	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-28	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$23.08	$11.18	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-28	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$16.44	-$16.47	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-28	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$16.44	$5.97	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-28	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$16.44	$7.96	WIN	80°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-28	88-89°F	YES	0.090	$1.17	-$1.19	LOSS	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.570	$15.87	-$16.04	LOSS	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$17.23	$6.26	WIN	96°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	31/30	yes
CHI	30/30	yes
DAL	30/30	yes
DEN	31/30	yes
LAX	31/30	yes
MIA	31/30	yes
NYC	30/30	yes
SEA	25/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$2,958.30.