Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated 28 min agoPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-313656 decisions20:30:07 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-07-12: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 40 positions {'baseline': 8, 'h1': 7, 'h2': 6, 'h3': 10, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 37, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-07-12T20:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-07-12 20:30:07 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

1823

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$3,594.05

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 1823 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	363	20	256	59%	-0.0821	-0.0873	-0.1161	-$653.15	$7,954
baseline	secondary	FAIL	334	16	227	65%	-0.0950	-0.0997	-0.0190	-$686.99	$7,229
h1	secondary	FAIL	267	13	202	75%	+0.0001	-0.0032	-0.0249	$1.32	$9,803
h2	secondary	FAIL	248	11	185	70%	-0.0732	-0.0788	-0.0350	-$504.38	$6,886
h4	secondary	FAIL	355	18	190	65%	-0.1140	-0.1191	+0.0131	-$770.78	$6,764
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions78 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	CHI	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$11.73	0.096	0.904
baseline	CHI	2026-07-12	86-87°F	NO	0.670	$11.73	0.234	0.766
baseline	DEN	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$11.24	0.278	0.722
baseline	LAX	2026-07-12	72-73°F	NO	0.840	$11.73	0.036	0.964
baseline	LAX	2026-07-12	76-77°F	NO	0.730	$11.73	0.203	0.797
baseline	MIA	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$11.73	0.201	0.799
baseline	NYC	2026-07-12	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$11.73	0.164	0.836
baseline	NYC	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$7.82	0.292	0.708
h1	CHI	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$40.25	0.096	0.904
h1	CHI	2026-07-12	86-87°F	NO	0.670	$40.25	0.234	0.766
h1	LAX	2026-07-12	72-73°F	NO	0.840	$40.25	0.036	0.964
h1	LAX	2026-07-12	76-77°F	NO	0.730	$40.25	0.203	0.797
h1	MIA	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$40.25	0.201	0.799
h1	NYC	2026-07-12	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$40.25	0.164	0.836
h2	CHI	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$22.44	0.096	0.904
h2	DEN	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$21.51	0.278	0.722
h2	LAX	2026-07-12	72-73°F	NO	0.840	$22.44	0.036	0.964
h2	NYC	2026-07-12	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$22.44	0.164	0.836
h2	NYC	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$14.97	0.292	0.708
h3	ATL	2026-07-12	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$7.15	0.263	0.737
h3	CHI	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$13.32	0.096	0.904
h3	CHI	2026-07-12	86-87°F	NO	0.670	$13.32	0.234	0.766
h3	DAL	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$1.25	0.303	0.697
h3	DEN	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$12.77	0.278	0.722
h3	DEN	2026-07-12	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$13.32	0.099	0.901
h3	LAX	2026-07-12	74-75°F	NO	0.480	$13.32	0.093	0.907
h3	LAX	2026-07-12	76-77°F	NO	0.730	$13.32	0.203	0.797
h3	MIA	2026-07-12	92-93°F	NO	0.550	$5.28	0.407	0.593
h3	MIA	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$13.32	0.201	0.799
h4	ATL	2026-07-12	86-87°F	NO	0.850	$8.51	0.113	0.887
h4	CHI	2026-07-12	80-81°F	NO	0.970	$8.51	0.012	0.988
h4	CHI	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$8.51	0.096	0.904
h4	DEN	2026-07-12	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$8.51	0.099	0.901
h4	LAX	2026-07-12	72-73°F	NO	0.840	$8.51	0.036	0.964
h4	LAX	2026-07-12	74-75°F	NO	0.480	$8.51	0.093	0.907
h4	LAX	2026-07-12	76-77°F	NO	0.730	$8.51	0.203	0.797
h4	MIA	2026-07-12	92-93°F	NO	0.550	$3.37	0.407	0.593
h4	MIA	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$5.13	0.201	0.799
baseline	ATL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$11.15	0.247	0.753
baseline	CHI	2026-07-13	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$11.15	0.045	0.955
baseline	DAL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$11.15	0.113	0.887
baseline	DAL	2026-07-13	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$9.19	0.254	0.746
baseline	DEN	2026-07-13	98-99°F	NO	0.779	$11.15	0.093	0.907
baseline	LAX	2026-07-13	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$11.15	0.136	0.864
baseline	MIA	2026-07-13	94-95°F	NO	0.570	$11.15	0.270	0.730
baseline	NYC	2026-07-13	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$11.15	0.064	0.936
h1	ATL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$37.91	0.247	0.753
h1	CHI	2026-07-13	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$37.91	0.045	0.955
h1	DAL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$37.91	0.113	0.887
h1	DEN	2026-07-13	98-99°F	NO	0.779	$37.91	0.093	0.907
h1	LAX	2026-07-13	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$37.91	0.136	0.864
h1	MIA	2026-07-13	94-95°F	NO	0.570	$37.91	0.270	0.730
h1	NYC	2026-07-13	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$37.91	0.064	0.936
h2	CHI	2026-07-13	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$19.56	0.045	0.955
h2	DAL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$19.56	0.113	0.887
h2	DAL	2026-07-13	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$16.11	0.254	0.746
h2	DEN	2026-07-13	98-99°F	NO	0.779	$19.56	0.093	0.907
h2	LAX	2026-07-13	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$19.56	0.136	0.864
h2	NYC	2026-07-13	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$19.56	0.064	0.936
h3	ATL	2026-07-13	82-83°F	NO	0.660	$2.04	0.315	0.685
h3	ATL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$11.98	0.247	0.753
h3	CHI	2026-07-13	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$11.98	0.130	0.870
h3	CHI	2026-07-13	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$1.88	0.276	0.724
h3	DAL	2026-07-13	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$9.87	0.254	0.746
h3	DEN	2026-07-13	96-97°F	NO	0.480	$11.98	0.269	0.731
h3	LAX	2026-07-13	74-75°F	NO	0.620	$11.98	0.055	0.945
h3	LAX	2026-07-13	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$11.98	0.136	0.864
h3	MIA	2026-07-13	94-95°F	NO	0.570	$11.98	0.270	0.730
h3	NYC	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.560	$10.17	0.168	0.832
h4	CHI	2026-07-13	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$8.04	0.045	0.955
h4	CHI	2026-07-13	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$8.04	0.130	0.870
h4	DAL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$8.04	0.113	0.887
h4	DAL	2026-07-13	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$6.62	0.254	0.746
h4	DEN	2026-07-13	96-97°F	NO	0.480	$8.04	0.269	0.731
h4	DEN	2026-07-13	98-99°F	NO	0.779	$8.04	0.093	0.907
h4	LAX	2026-07-13	72-73°F	NO	0.940	$8.04	0.022	0.978
h4	LAX	2026-07-13	74-75°F	NO	0.620	$8.04	0.055	0.945
h4	LAX	2026-07-13	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$1.41	0.136	0.864

Settlements1823 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-07-11	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$12.17	$2.80	WIN	94°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$12.17	$7.03	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-11	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$36.91	$8.48	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$36.91	$21.34	WIN	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-11	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$19.64	$4.51	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$15.98	$9.24	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-11	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$9.15	$2.10	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$9.15	$5.29	WIN	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-11	80-81°F	NO	0.871	$12.17	$1.76	WIN	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-11	80-81°F	NO	0.871	$36.91	$5.35	WIN	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-11	80-81°F	NO	0.871	$19.64	$2.85	WIN	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-11	82-83°F	NO	0.570	$15.98	-$16.16	LOSS	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-11	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$3.95	$1.74	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-11	80-81°F	NO	0.871	$9.15	$1.33	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-11	82-83°F	NO	0.570	$9.15	-$9.25	LOSS	82°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.740	$12.17	$4.20	WIN	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-11	98-99°F	NO	0.620	$7.78	-$7.85	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.740	$36.91	$12.73	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.740	$15.98	$5.51	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-11	98-99°F	NO	0.620	$10.22	-$10.32	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.740	$9.15	$3.16	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-11	98-99°F	NO	0.620	$5.85	-$5.91	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.560	$12.17	-$12.30	LOSS	96°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.560	$36.91	-$37.32	LOSS	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.560	$15.98	-$16.16	LOSS	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.560	$9.15	-$9.25	LOSS	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-11	98-99°F	NO	0.880	$9.15	$1.22	WIN	96°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.680	$12.17	-$12.26	LOSS	90°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-11	92-93°F	NO	0.530	$7.28	$6.37	WIN	90°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.680	$36.91	-$37.20	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.680	$15.98	-$16.11	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-11	92-93°F	NO	0.530	$6.15	$5.38	WIN	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-11	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$9.27	-$9.36	LOSS	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-11	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$19.64	-$19.82	LOSS	82°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-11	74-75°F	NO	0.530	$15.98	-$16.17	LOSS	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-11	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$11.65	$4.45	WIN	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-11	74-75°F	NO	0.530	$3.30	-$3.34	LOSS	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.850	$13.42	$2.32	WIN	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$13.42	$4.87	WIN	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-10	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$12.37	-$12.48	LOSS	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.850	$39.10	$6.75	WIN	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$39.10	$14.20	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.850	$20.74	$3.58	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$20.74	$7.53	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-10	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$19.12	-$19.29	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$14.44	$5.24	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-10	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$13.31	-$13.43	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.850	$9.14	$1.58	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$9.14	$3.32	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-10	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$8.42	-$8.50	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-10	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$13.42	$4.63	WIN	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-10	80-81°F	NO	0.630	$6.56	-$6.62	LOSS	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-10	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$39.10	$13.48	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-10	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$14.44	$4.98	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-10	80-81°F	NO	0.630	$7.06	-$7.12	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-10	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$9.14	$3.15	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-10	80-81°F	NO	0.630	$4.47	-$4.51	LOSS	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-10	96-97°F	NO	0.820	$13.42	$2.89	WIN	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-10	98-99°F	NO	0.630	$13.42	-$13.54	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-10	96-97°F	NO	0.820	$39.10	$8.41	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-10	96-97°F	NO	0.820	$20.74	$4.46	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-10	98-99°F	NO	0.630	$20.74	-$20.93	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-10	98-99°F	NO	0.630	$14.44	-$14.57	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-10	96-97°F	NO	0.820	$9.14	$1.96	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-10	98-99°F	NO	0.630	$9.14	-$9.22	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$13.20	$7.31	WIN	90°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.741	$8.13	-$8.19	LOSS	90°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.741	$39.10	-$39.35	LOSS	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$20.40	$11.29	WIN	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.741	$20.74	-$20.87	LOSS	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$14.20	$7.86	WIN	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.741	$14.44	-$14.53	LOSS	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$8.99	$4.97	WIN	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.741	$5.54	-$5.57	LOSS	90°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-10	86-87°F	NO	0.840	$39.10	$7.29	WIN	88°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$39.10	-$39.43	LOSS	88°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-10	86-87°F	NO	0.840	$4.40	$0.82	WIN	88°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-10	66-67°F	NO	0.906	$39.10	$3.96	WIN	76°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-10	92-93°F	NO	0.590	$18.30	-$18.49	LOSS	92°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-10	74-75°F	NO	0.620	$14.44	-$14.58	LOSS	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-10	76-77°F	NO	0.613	$8.75	$5.44	WIN	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$12.29	$3.01	WIN	94°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-09	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$12.29	$9.52	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$34.00	$8.33	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-09	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$34.00	$26.34	WIN	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$18.23	$4.47	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-09	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$16.03	$12.42	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-09	88-89°F	NO	0.950	$9.47	$0.49	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$9.47	$2.32	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-09	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$9.47	$7.34	WIN	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-09	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$12.29	$1.49	WIN	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-09	82-83°F	NO	0.760	$12.29	$3.81	WIN	86°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-09	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$34.00	$4.11	WIN	86°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-09	82-83°F	NO	0.760	$34.00	$10.53	WIN	86°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-09	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$18.23	$2.20	WIN	86°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-09	82-83°F	NO	0.760	$18.23	$5.65	WIN	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-09	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$9.47	$1.14	WIN	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-09	82-83°F	NO	0.760	$9.47	$2.93	WIN	86°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-09	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$12.29	$3.40	WIN	100°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-09	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$12.29	-$12.40	LOSS	100°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-09	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$34.00	$9.40	WIN	100°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-09	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$18.23	$5.04	WIN	100°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-09	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$18.23	-$18.40	LOSS	100°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-09	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$16.03	-$16.17	LOSS	100°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-09	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$9.47	$2.62	WIN	100°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-09	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$9.47	-$9.55	LOSS	100°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.720	$12.16	-$12.25	LOSS	90°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.720	$33.64	-$33.88	LOSS	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.720	$15.86	-$15.97	LOSS	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.720	$9.37	-$9.43	LOSS	90°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-09	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$12.29	-$12.36	LOSS	74°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-09	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$34.00	-$34.19	LOSS	74°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-09	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$18.23	-$18.33	LOSS	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-09	76-77°F	NO	0.550	$16.03	$12.93	WIN	74°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-09	72-73°F	NO	0.830	$34.00	$6.82	WIN	78°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-09	72-73°F	NO	0.830	$18.23	$3.66	WIN	78°F
h3	SEA	2026-07-09	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$16.03	$9.26	WIN	78°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-09	84-85°F	NO	0.560	$18.23	$14.13	WIN	86°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-09	84-85°F	NO	0.560	$16.03	$12.42	WIN	86°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-09	92-93°F	NO	0.440	$15.65	$19.69	WIN	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-08	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$13.63	$2.54	WIN	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-08	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$42.42	$7.91	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-08	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$22.09	$4.12	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-08	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$15.22	-$15.40	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-08	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$10.08	$1.88	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-08	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$10.08	-$10.20	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-08	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$13.63	$1.32	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-08	86-87°F	NO	0.710	$13.63	$5.47	WIN	88°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-08	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$42.42	$4.10	WIN	88°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-08	86-87°F	NO	0.710	$42.42	$17.02	WIN	88°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-08	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$22.09	$2.14	WIN	88°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-08	86-87°F	NO	0.710	$22.09	$8.86	WIN	88°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-08	86-87°F	NO	0.710	$15.22	$6.11	WIN	88°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-08	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$9.43	-$9.50	LOSS	88°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-08	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$10.08	$0.97	WIN	88°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-08	86-87°F	NO	0.710	$10.08	$4.04	WIN	88°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-08	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$6.24	-$6.29	LOSS	88°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-08	96-97°F	NO	0.810	$13.63	$3.13	WIN	100°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-08	98-99°F	NO	0.640	$13.63	$7.54	WIN	100°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-08	96-97°F	NO	0.810	$42.42	$9.75	WIN	100°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-08	96-97°F	NO	0.810	$22.09	$5.08	WIN	100°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-08	98-99°F	NO	0.640	$22.09	$12.23	WIN	100°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-08	98-99°F	NO	0.640	$15.22	$8.43	WIN	100°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-08	96-97°F	NO	0.810	$10.08	$2.32	WIN	100°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-08	98-99°F	NO	0.640	$10.08	$5.58	WIN	100°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-08	92-93°F	NO	0.587	$13.63	-$13.77	LOSS	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-08	92-93°F	NO	0.587	$42.42	-$42.86	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-08	92-93°F	NO	0.587	$15.22	-$15.38	LOSS	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-08	92-93°F	NO	0.587	$10.08	-$10.19	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-08	78-79°F	NO	0.880	$13.63	$1.82	WIN	86°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-08	80-81°F	NO	0.780	$13.63	$3.77	WIN	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-08	78-79°F	NO	0.880	$42.42	$5.66	WIN	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-08	80-81°F	NO	0.780	$42.42	$11.73	WIN	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-08	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$42.42	$20.54	WIN	86°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-08	78-79°F	NO	0.880	$22.09	$2.95	WIN	86°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-08	80-81°F	NO	0.780	$22.09	$6.11	WIN	86°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-08	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$5.79	$2.81	WIN	86°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-08	68-69°F	NO	0.900	$22.09	-$22.15	LOSS	68°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-08	74-75°F	NO	0.660	$15.22	-$15.35	LOSS	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-08	76-77°F	NO	0.560	$15.22	$11.79	WIN	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-08	72-73°F	NO	0.959	$3.84	$0.16	WIN	74°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-08	92-93°F	NO	0.460	$15.22	-$15.43	LOSS	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-07	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$14.41	-$14.54	LOSS	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-07	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$23.45	-$23.67	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-07	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$3.98	$1.76	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-07	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$18.56	-$18.73	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-07	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$10.44	-$10.53	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-07	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$14.41	$1.74	WIN	84°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-07	82-83°F	NO	0.700	$14.41	$6.07	WIN	84°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-07	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$13.09	-$13.20	LOSS	84°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-07	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$42.97	$5.19	WIN	84°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-07	82-83°F	NO	0.700	$42.97	$18.09	WIN	84°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-07	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$23.45	$2.83	WIN	84°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-07	82-83°F	NO	0.700	$23.45	$9.88	WIN	84°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-07	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$21.30	-$21.49	LOSS	84°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-07	82-83°F	NO	0.700	$18.56	$7.81	WIN	84°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-07	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$16.86	-$17.00	LOSS	84°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-07	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$10.44	$1.26	WIN	84°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-07	82-83°F	NO	0.700	$10.44	$4.39	WIN	84°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-07	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$9.48	-$9.56	LOSS	84°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-07	96-97°F	NO	0.680	$14.41	$6.67	WIN	100°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-07	96-97°F	NO	0.680	$42.97	$19.88	WIN	100°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-07	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$18.56	$10.27	WIN	100°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-07	96-97°F	NO	0.680	$18.56	$8.59	WIN	100°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-07	90-91°F	NO	0.981	$10.44	$0.20	WIN	100°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-07	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$10.44	$5.78	WIN	100°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-07	96-97°F	NO	0.680	$10.44	$4.83	WIN	100°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-07	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$6.25	$4.64	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-07	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$10.17	$7.56	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-07	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$8.04	$5.98	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-07	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$3.30	-$3.33	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-07	72-73°F	NO	0.750	$14.41	-$14.50	LOSS	72°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-07	74-75°F	NO	0.580	$8.10	$5.78	WIN	72°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-07	72-73°F	NO	0.750	$42.97	-$43.24	LOSS	72°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-07	72-73°F	NO	0.750	$23.45	-$23.60	LOSS	72°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-07	74-75°F	NO	0.580	$13.18	$9.41	WIN	72°F
baseline	SEA	2026-07-07	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$14.41	-$14.49	LOSS	74°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-07	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$42.97	-$43.20	LOSS	74°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-07	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$23.45	-$23.58	LOSS	74°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-07	94-95°F	NO	0.620	$3.67	$2.21	WIN	96°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	40/30	yes
CHI	39/30	yes
DAL	39/30	yes
DEN	40/30	yes
LAX	40/30	yes
MIA	40/30	yes
NYC	39/30	yes
SEA	32/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$3,594.05.