Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-3110924 decisions08:03:50 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-10-04: 8 decision snapshots, 86 new decision rows, opened 40 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 6, 'h2': 9, 'h3': 8, 'h4': 8, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 39, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-10-05T08:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 25 snapshots written
rendered 2026-10-05 08:03:50 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

4977

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$5,017.16

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 4977 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	1118	8	766	59%	-0.0755	-0.0789	-0.1779	-$893.48	$11,832
baseline	secondary	FAIL	1000	9	701	68%	-0.0748	-0.0776	-0.0327	-$869.22	$11,620
h1	secondary	FAIL	765	6	602	74%	-0.0322	-0.0339	-0.0628	-$658.41	$20,434
h2	secondary	FAIL	765	9	571	71%	-0.0503	-0.0528	-0.0269	-$724.01	$14,408
h4	secondary	FAIL	1073	8	563	66%	-0.0925	-0.0960	-0.0679	-$891.97	$9,643
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions40 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-10-05	78-79°F	NO	0.590	$4.48	0.321	0.679
baseline	ATL	2026-10-05	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$4.48	0.217	0.783
baseline	CHI	2026-10-05	70-71°F	NO	0.735	$4.48	0.082	0.918
baseline	DAL	2026-10-05	82-83°F	NO	0.690	$4.48	0.116	0.884
baseline	DAL	2026-10-05	86-87°F	NO	0.910	$4.48	0.014	0.986
baseline	LAX	2026-10-05	92-93°F	NO	0.770	$4.48	0.124	0.876
baseline	LAX	2026-10-05	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$4.48	0.240	0.760
baseline	MIA	2026-10-05	88-89°F	NO	0.520	$2.83	0.383	0.617
baseline	NYC	2026-10-05	68-69°F	NO	0.580	$1.65	0.267	0.733
h1	ATL	2026-10-05	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$11.55	0.217	0.783
h1	CHI	2026-10-05	70-71°F	NO	0.735	$11.55	0.082	0.918
h1	DAL	2026-10-05	82-83°F	NO	0.690	$11.55	0.116	0.884
h1	DAL	2026-10-05	86-87°F	NO	0.910	$11.55	0.014	0.986
h1	LAX	2026-10-05	92-93°F	NO	0.770	$11.55	0.124	0.876
h1	SEA	2026-10-05	64-65°F	NO	0.780	$11.55	0.098	0.902
h2	CHI	2026-10-05	70-71°F	NO	0.735	$9.66	0.082	0.918
h2	DAL	2026-10-05	82-83°F	NO	0.690	$9.66	0.116	0.884
h2	DAL	2026-10-05	86-87°F	NO	0.910	$9.66	0.014	0.986
h2	LAX	2026-10-05	92-93°F	NO	0.770	$9.66	0.124	0.876
h2	LAX	2026-10-05	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$9.66	0.240	0.760
h2	MIA	2026-10-05	88-89°F	NO	0.520	$6.10	0.383	0.617
h2	NYC	2026-10-05	68-69°F	NO	0.580	$9.66	0.267	0.733
h2	NYC	2026-10-05	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$8.95	0.284	0.716
h2	SEA	2026-10-05	64-65°F	NO	0.780	$4.28	0.098	0.902
h3	ATL	2026-10-05	78-79°F	NO	0.590	$3.62	0.321	0.679
h3	ATL	2026-10-05	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$3.62	0.217	0.783
h3	CHI	2026-10-05	68-69°F	NO	0.540	$3.62	0.211	0.789
h3	CHI	2026-10-05	70-71°F	NO	0.735	$3.62	0.082	0.918
h3	DAL	2026-10-05	82-83°F	NO	0.690	$3.62	0.116	0.884
h3	DAL	2026-10-05	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$3.62	0.041	0.959
h3	DEN	2026-10-05	88-89°F	NO	0.490	$3.62	0.076	0.924
h3	DEN	2026-10-05	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$3.62	0.022	0.978
h4	ATL	2026-10-05	78-79°F	NO	0.590	$3.64	0.321	0.679
h4	ATL	2026-10-05	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$3.64	0.217	0.783
h4	CHI	2026-10-05	68-69°F	NO	0.540	$3.64	0.211	0.789
h4	CHI	2026-10-05	70-71°F	NO	0.735	$3.64	0.082	0.918
h4	DAL	2026-10-05	82-83°F	NO	0.690	$3.64	0.116	0.884
h4	DAL	2026-10-05	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$3.64	0.041	0.959
h4	DAL	2026-10-05	86-87°F	NO	0.910	$3.64	0.014	0.986
h4	DEN	2026-10-05	88-89°F	NO	0.490	$3.64	0.076	0.924

Settlements4977 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-10-04	72-73°F	NO	0.890	$4.49	$0.54	WIN	76°F
h1	ATL	2026-10-04	72-73°F	NO	0.890	$12.09	$1.46	WIN	76°F
h2	ATL	2026-10-04	72-73°F	NO	0.890	$10.88	$1.31	WIN	76°F
h3	ATL	2026-10-04	74-75°F	NO	0.540	$3.27	$2.75	WIN	76°F
h3	ATL	2026-10-04	76-77°F	NO	0.670	$1.22	-$1.23	LOSS	76°F
h4	ATL	2026-10-04	72-73°F	NO	0.890	$3.46	$0.42	WIN	76°F
h4	ATL	2026-10-04	74-75°F	NO	0.540	$3.46	$2.90	WIN	76°F
baseline	DAL	2026-10-04	80-81°F	NO	0.650	$4.49	$2.38	WIN	78°F
baseline	DAL	2026-10-04	82-83°F	NO	0.720	$4.49	$1.72	WIN	78°F
baseline	DAL	2026-10-04	84-85°F	NO	0.880	$4.49	$0.60	WIN	78°F
h1	DAL	2026-10-04	80-81°F	NO	0.650	$12.09	$6.41	WIN	78°F
h1	DAL	2026-10-04	82-83°F	NO	0.720	$12.09	$4.62	WIN	78°F
h1	DAL	2026-10-04	84-85°F	NO	0.880	$12.09	$1.61	WIN	78°F
h2	DAL	2026-10-04	82-83°F	NO	0.720	$10.88	$4.15	WIN	78°F
h2	DAL	2026-10-04	84-85°F	NO	0.880	$10.88	$1.45	WIN	78°F
h3	DAL	2026-10-04	80-81°F	NO	0.650	$3.27	$1.73	WIN	78°F
h3	DAL	2026-10-04	82-83°F	NO	0.720	$3.27	$1.25	WIN	78°F
h4	DAL	2026-10-04	80-81°F	NO	0.650	$3.46	$1.83	WIN	78°F
h4	DAL	2026-10-04	82-83°F	NO	0.720	$3.46	$1.32	WIN	78°F
h4	DAL	2026-10-04	84-85°F	NO	0.880	$3.46	$0.46	WIN	78°F
baseline	LAX	2026-10-04	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$4.49	$0.49	WIN	100°F
baseline	LAX	2026-10-04	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$4.49	$1.47	WIN	100°F
baseline	LAX	2026-10-04	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$4.49	$2.28	WIN	100°F
h1	LAX	2026-10-04	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$12.09	$1.31	WIN	100°F
h1	LAX	2026-10-04	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$12.09	$3.96	WIN	100°F
h1	LAX	2026-10-04	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$12.09	$6.13	WIN	100°F
h2	LAX	2026-10-04	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$10.88	$1.18	WIN	100°F
h2	LAX	2026-10-04	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$10.88	$3.56	WIN	100°F
h2	LAX	2026-10-04	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$10.88	$5.51	WIN	100°F
h3	LAX	2026-10-04	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$2.05	$0.67	WIN	100°F
baseline	MIA	2026-10-04	88-89°F	NO	0.570	$3.89	-$3.93	LOSS	88°F
h2	MIA	2026-10-04	88-89°F	NO	0.570	$9.42	-$9.52	LOSS	88°F
h3	CHI	2026-10-04	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$3.27	-$3.30	LOSS	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-10-04	74-75°F	NO	0.690	$3.27	$1.44	WIN	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-10-04	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$3.46	-$3.50	LOSS	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-10-04	74-75°F	NO	0.690	$3.46	$1.53	WIN	72°F
h3	DEN	2026-10-04	82-83°F	NO	0.580	$3.27	$2.33	WIN	80°F
h3	DEN	2026-10-04	84-85°F	NO	0.610	$3.27	$2.06	WIN	80°F
h4	DEN	2026-10-04	82-83°F	NO	0.580	$3.46	$2.47	WIN	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-10-03	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$4.46	$2.16	WIN	84°F
baseline	ATL	2026-10-03	84-85°F	NO	0.620	$2.46	-$2.48	LOSS	84°F
h1	ATL	2026-10-03	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$11.22	$5.43	WIN	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-10-03	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$3.46	$1.68	WIN	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-10-03	84-85°F	NO	0.620	$1.91	-$1.92	LOSS	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-10-03	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$3.44	$1.66	WIN	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-10-03	84-85°F	NO	0.620	$1.89	-$1.91	LOSS	84°F
baseline	DAL	2026-10-03	74-75°F	NO	0.670	$4.46	-$4.50	LOSS	74°F
h1	DAL	2026-10-03	74-75°F	NO	0.670	$11.22	-$11.31	LOSS	74°F
h3	DAL	2026-10-03	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$3.46	$2.00	WIN	74°F
h3	DAL	2026-10-03	74-75°F	NO	0.670	$3.46	-$3.49	LOSS	74°F
h4	DAL	2026-10-03	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$3.44	$1.99	WIN	74°F
h4	DAL	2026-10-03	74-75°F	NO	0.670	$3.44	-$3.46	LOSS	74°F
baseline	DEN	2026-10-03	86-87°F	NO	0.860	$4.46	$0.71	WIN	82°F
h1	DEN	2026-10-03	86-87°F	NO	0.860	$11.22	$1.79	WIN	82°F
h2	DEN	2026-10-03	86-87°F	NO	0.860	$10.46	$1.67	WIN	82°F
h3	DEN	2026-10-03	84-85°F	NO	0.400	$3.46	$5.14	WIN	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-10-03	84-85°F	NO	0.400	$3.44	$5.10	WIN	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-10-03	86-87°F	NO	0.860	$3.44	$0.55	WIN	82°F
baseline	LAX	2026-10-03	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$4.46	$0.48	WIN	100°F
h1	LAX	2026-10-03	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$11.22	$1.22	WIN	100°F
h2	LAX	2026-10-03	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$10.46	$1.14	WIN	100°F
h3	LAX	2026-10-03	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$3.46	$1.75	WIN	100°F
h3	LAX	2026-10-03	96-97°F	NO	0.690	$1.56	$0.69	WIN	100°F
h4	LAX	2026-10-03	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$1.55	$0.17	WIN	100°F
baseline	MIA	2026-10-03	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$4.46	$1.16	WIN	86°F
h1	MIA	2026-10-03	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$11.22	$2.92	WIN	86°F
h2	MIA	2026-10-03	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$10.46	$2.73	WIN	86°F
baseline	NYC	2026-10-03	72-73°F	NO	0.570	$3.35	$2.49	WIN	70°F
h2	NYC	2026-10-03	72-73°F	NO	0.570	$7.84	$5.83	WIN	70°F
baseline	SEA	2026-10-03	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$4.46	$2.58	WIN	66°F
h1	SEA	2026-10-03	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$11.22	$6.48	WIN	66°F
h3	CHI	2026-10-03	66-67°F	NO	0.520	$3.46	$3.16	WIN	68°F
h3	CHI	2026-10-03	68-69°F	NO	0.590	$3.46	-$3.50	LOSS	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-10-03	66-67°F	NO	0.520	$3.44	$3.13	WIN	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-10-03	68-69°F	NO	0.590	$3.44	-$3.47	LOSS	68°F
baseline	ATL	2026-10-02	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$4.89	$1.68	WIN	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-10-02	86-87°F	NO	0.570	$4.89	$3.63	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-10-02	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$12.49	$4.31	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-10-02	86-87°F	NO	0.570	$12.49	$9.28	WIN	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-10-02	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$9.43	$3.25	WIN	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-10-02	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$3.44	$1.19	WIN	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-10-02	86-87°F	NO	0.570	$3.44	$2.56	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-10-02	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$3.47	$1.20	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-10-02	86-87°F	NO	0.570	$3.47	$2.58	WIN	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-10-02	66-67°F	NO	0.650	$4.89	-$4.93	LOSS	66°F
h1	CHI	2026-10-02	66-67°F	NO	0.650	$12.49	-$12.59	LOSS	66°F
h3	CHI	2026-10-02	64-65°F	NO	0.440	$3.44	$4.33	WIN	66°F
h3	CHI	2026-10-02	66-67°F	NO	0.650	$3.44	-$3.47	LOSS	66°F
h4	CHI	2026-10-02	64-65°F	NO	0.440	$3.47	$4.36	WIN	66°F
h4	CHI	2026-10-02	66-67°F	NO	0.650	$3.47	-$3.50	LOSS	66°F
baseline	DAL	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$4.89	-$4.92	LOSS	80°F
h1	DAL	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$12.49	-$12.58	LOSS	80°F
h3	DAL	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$3.44	-$3.47	LOSS	80°F
h4	DAL	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$3.47	-$3.49	LOSS	80°F
baseline	DEN	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$4.89	-$4.94	LOSS	80°F
h1	DEN	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$12.49	-$12.62	LOSS	80°F
h3	DEN	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$3.44	-$3.48	LOSS	80°F
h3	DEN	2026-10-02	82-83°F	NO	0.620	$3.44	$2.08	WIN	80°F
h4	DEN	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$3.47	-$3.50	LOSS	80°F
h4	DEN	2026-10-02	82-83°F	NO	0.620	$3.47	$2.09	WIN	80°F
baseline	LAX	2026-10-02	82-83°F	NO	0.890	$4.89	$0.59	WIN	84°F
h1	LAX	2026-10-02	82-83°F	NO	0.890	$12.49	$1.51	WIN	84°F
h2	LAX	2026-10-02	82-83°F	NO	0.890	$9.43	$1.14	WIN	84°F
h3	LAX	2026-10-02	84-85°F	NO	0.720	$3.44	-$3.46	LOSS	84°F
h4	LAX	2026-10-02	82-83°F	NO	0.890	$3.47	$0.42	WIN	84°F
baseline	NYC	2026-10-02	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$4.89	$1.43	WIN	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-10-02	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$12.49	$3.66	WIN	86°F
h2	NYC	2026-10-02	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$9.43	$2.76	WIN	86°F
baseline	SEA	2026-10-02	72-73°F	NO	0.770	$4.89	$1.43	WIN	70°F
h1	SEA	2026-10-02	72-73°F	NO	0.770	$12.49	$3.66	WIN	70°F
h2	SEA	2026-10-02	72-73°F	NO	0.770	$9.43	$2.76	WIN	70°F
baseline	ATL	2026-10-01	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$3.46	$1.92	WIN	84°F
h2	ATL	2026-10-01	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$7.97	$4.41	WIN	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-10-01	86-87°F	NO	0.520	$3.13	$2.85	WIN	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-10-01	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$2.68	$1.48	WIN	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-10-01	86-87°F	NO	0.520	$3.24	$2.95	WIN	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-10-01	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$2.77	$1.54	WIN	84°F
baseline	CHI	2026-10-01	74-75°F	NO	0.730	$4.04	$1.47	WIN	70°F
baseline	CHI	2026-10-01	76-77°F	NO	0.882	$4.04	$0.53	WIN	70°F
h1	CHI	2026-10-01	74-75°F	NO	0.730	$11.92	$4.33	WIN	70°F
h1	CHI	2026-10-01	76-77°F	NO	0.882	$11.92	$1.56	WIN	70°F
h2	CHI	2026-10-01	76-77°F	NO	0.882	$9.31	$1.22	WIN	70°F
h3	CHI	2026-10-01	74-75°F	NO	0.730	$3.13	$1.14	WIN	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-10-01	74-75°F	NO	0.730	$3.24	$1.18	WIN	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-10-01	76-77°F	NO	0.882	$3.24	$0.42	WIN	70°F
baseline	DAL	2026-10-01	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$4.04	$1.39	WIN	80°F
h1	DAL	2026-10-01	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$11.92	$4.11	WIN	80°F
h2	DAL	2026-10-01	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$9.31	$3.21	WIN	80°F
h3	DAL	2026-10-01	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$3.13	$1.08	WIN	80°F
h4	DAL	2026-10-01	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$3.24	$1.12	WIN	80°F
baseline	DEN	2026-10-01	68-69°F	NO	0.600	$4.04	-$4.08	LOSS	68°F
baseline	DEN	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.750	$4.04	$1.32	WIN	68°F
h1	DEN	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.750	$11.92	$3.90	WIN	68°F
h2	DEN	2026-10-01	68-69°F	NO	0.600	$9.31	-$9.40	LOSS	68°F
h2	DEN	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.750	$9.31	$3.05	WIN	68°F
h3	DEN	2026-10-01	68-69°F	NO	0.600	$3.13	-$3.16	LOSS	68°F
h3	DEN	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.750	$3.13	$1.02	WIN	68°F
h4	DEN	2026-10-01	68-69°F	NO	0.600	$3.24	-$3.27	LOSS	68°F
h4	DEN	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.750	$3.24	$1.06	WIN	68°F
baseline	SEA	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.888	$4.04	$0.50	WIN	66°F
h1	SEA	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.888	$11.92	$1.47	WIN	66°F
h2	SEA	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.888	$9.31	$1.15	WIN	66°F
h3	LAX	2026-10-01	76-77°F	NO	0.640	$3.13	-$3.15	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-10-01	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$3.13	$2.23	WIN	76°F
h4	LAX	2026-10-01	76-77°F	NO	0.640	$3.24	-$3.27	LOSS	76°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-30	84-85°F	NO	0.840	$4.44	$0.83	WIN	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-30	84-85°F	NO	0.840	$11.26	$2.10	WIN	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-30	84-85°F	NO	0.840	$9.55	$1.78	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-30	86-87°F	NO	0.380	$3.15	-$3.19	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-30	84-85°F	NO	0.840	$3.39	$0.63	WIN	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-30	86-87°F	NO	0.380	$3.39	-$3.45	LOSS	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-30	68-69°F	NO	0.510	$2.59	$2.46	WIN	70°F
h2	CHI	2026-09-30	68-69°F	NO	0.510	$5.57	$5.29	WIN	70°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-30	68-69°F	NO	0.510	$1.84	$1.74	WIN	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-30	68-69°F	NO	0.510	$1.98	$1.88	WIN	70°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-30	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$4.22	$2.65	WIN	90°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-30	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$4.44	$1.78	WIN	90°F
h1	DAL	2026-09-30	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$11.26	$4.52	WIN	90°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-30	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$2.99	$1.88	WIN	90°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-30	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$3.15	$1.26	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-30	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$3.22	$2.03	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-30	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$3.39	$1.36	WIN	90°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-30	62-63°F	NO	0.810	$4.44	-$4.46	LOSS	62°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-30	64-65°F	NO	0.900	$4.44	$0.48	WIN	62°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-30	62-63°F	NO	0.810	$11.26	-$11.31	LOSS	62°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-30	64-65°F	NO	0.900	$11.26	$1.22	WIN	62°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-30	62-63°F	NO	0.810	$9.55	-$9.59	LOSS	62°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-30	64-65°F	NO	0.900	$9.55	$1.04	WIN	62°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-30	60-61°F	NO	0.710	$2.43	$0.98	WIN	62°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-30	60-61°F	NO	0.710	$2.63	$1.05	WIN	62°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-30	62-63°F	NO	0.810	$3.39	-$3.41	LOSS	62°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-30	64-65°F	NO	0.900	$3.39	$0.37	WIN	62°F
baseline	MIA	2026-09-30	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$4.44	$1.61	WIN	84°F
h1	MIA	2026-09-30	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$11.26	$4.09	WIN	84°F
h3	MIA	2026-09-30	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$3.15	$1.14	WIN	84°F
baseline	NYC	2026-09-30	74-75°F	NO	0.520	$3.00	$2.73	WIN	72°F
h2	NYC	2026-09-30	74-75°F	NO	0.520	$6.44	$5.87	WIN	72°F
h3	NYC	2026-09-30	74-75°F	NO	0.520	$2.12	$1.93	WIN	72°F
baseline	SEA	2026-09-30	66-67°F	NO	0.800	$3.52	$0.86	WIN	64°F
h1	SEA	2026-09-30	66-67°F	NO	0.800	$11.26	$2.76	WIN	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-09-30	66-67°F	NO	0.800	$9.55	$2.34	WIN	64°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-30	78-79°F	NO	0.500	$3.15	$3.11	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-30	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$3.15	-$3.18	LOSS	80°F
h4	LAX	2026-09-30	78-79°F	NO	0.500	$2.35	$2.32	WIN	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-29	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$4.29	$0.92	WIN	84°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-29	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$12.50	$2.69	WIN	84°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-29	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$9.17	$1.97	WIN	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-29	84-85°F	NO	0.420	$3.28	-$3.33	LOSS	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-29	84-85°F	NO	0.420	$3.33	-$3.38	LOSS	84°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-29	70-71°F	NO	0.810	$4.29	-$4.31	LOSS	70°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-29	72-73°F	NO	0.930	$4.29	$0.32	WIN	70°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-29	70-71°F	NO	0.810	$12.50	-$12.56	LOSS	70°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-29	72-73°F	NO	0.930	$12.50	$0.92	WIN	70°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-29	70-71°F	NO	0.810	$9.17	-$9.21	LOSS	70°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-29	72-73°F	NO	0.930	$9.17	$0.67	WIN	70°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-29	68-69°F	NO	0.710	$3.28	$1.32	WIN	70°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-29	66-67°F	NO	0.790	$1.47	$0.38	WIN	70°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-29	68-69°F	NO	0.710	$3.33	$1.34	WIN	70°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-29	70-71°F	NO	0.810	$3.33	-$3.35	LOSS	70°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-29	72-73°F	NO	0.930	$3.33	$0.25	WIN	70°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	124/30	yes
CHI	123/30	yes
DAL	123/30	yes
DEN	123/30	yes
LAX	124/30	yes
MIA	118/30	yes
NYC	109/30	yes
SEA	97/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$5,017.16.