Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-314272 decisions14:02:24 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-07-19: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 40 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 6, 'h2': 7, 'h3': 9, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 46, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-07-20T14:00:03Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-07-20 14:02:24 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

2140

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$3,716.03

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 2140 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	438	9	306	59%	-0.0850	-0.0898	-0.1457	-$735.17	$8,648
baseline	secondary	FAIL	401	9	274	66%	-0.0835	-0.0877	-0.0171	-$664.97	$7,959
h1	secondary	FAIL	321	6	246	75%	-0.0031	-0.0059	-0.0299	-$37.08	$11,800
h2	secondary	FAIL	299	7	223	71%	-0.0621	-0.0668	-0.0370	-$488.88	$7,877
h4	secondary	FAIL	425	9	225	65%	-0.1117	-0.1165	-0.0113	-$809.86	$7,251
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions40 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$11.46	0.284	0.716
baseline	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$11.46	0.024	0.976
baseline	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$11.46	0.189	0.811
baseline	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$11.46	0.081	0.919
baseline	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$6.51	0.349	0.651
baseline	LAX	2026-07-20	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$11.46	0.046	0.954
baseline	MIA	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$11.46	0.191	0.809
baseline	MIA	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.500	$8.83	0.405	0.595
baseline	NYC	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.830	$7.57	0.073	0.927
h1	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$37.47	0.024	0.976
h1	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$37.47	0.189	0.811
h1	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$37.47	0.081	0.919
h1	LAX	2026-07-20	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$37.47	0.046	0.954
h1	MIA	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$37.47	0.191	0.809
h1	NYC	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.830	$37.47	0.073	0.927
h2	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$18.08	0.284	0.716
h2	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$18.08	0.024	0.976
h2	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$18.08	0.081	0.919
h2	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$10.28	0.349	0.651
h2	LAX	2026-07-20	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$18.08	0.046	0.954
h2	NYC	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.830	$18.08	0.073	0.927
h2	SEA	2026-07-20	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$15.22	0.286	0.714
h3	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$9.18	0.284	0.716
h3	CHI	2026-07-20	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$9.18	0.071	0.929
h3	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$9.18	0.189	0.811
h3	DAL	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.530	$9.18	0.207	0.793
h3	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$5.22	0.349	0.651
h3	DEN	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$9.18	0.164	0.836
h3	LAX	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$9.18	0.115	0.885
h3	LAX	2026-07-20	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$7.28	0.231	0.769
h3	MIA	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$5.86	0.191	0.809
h4	ATL	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$5.39	0.132	0.868
h4	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$6.89	0.284	0.716
h4	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$6.89	0.024	0.976
h4	CHI	2026-07-20	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$6.89	0.071	0.929
h4	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$6.89	0.189	0.811
h4	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$6.89	0.081	0.919
h4	DAL	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.530	$6.89	0.207	0.793
h4	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$3.92	0.349	0.651
h4	DEN	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$4.48	0.164	0.836

Settlements2140 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-07-19	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$7.19	$4.53	WIN	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$12.10	$4.17	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$32.06	$11.06	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-19	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$6.36	$4.00	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$10.70	$3.69	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-19	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$4.29	$2.70	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$7.22	$2.49	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$12.10	-$12.17	LOSS	78°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$9.70	$8.15	WIN	78°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$32.06	-$32.25	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$19.77	-$19.89	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$15.85	$13.32	WIN	78°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$8.58	$7.21	WIN	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$7.22	-$7.26	LOSS	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$5.79	$4.86	WIN	78°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$12.10	$4.85	WIN	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$12.10	-$12.22	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$32.06	$12.86	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$19.77	$7.93	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$19.77	-$19.98	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$10.70	$4.29	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$10.70	-$10.81	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$7.22	$2.90	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$7.22	-$7.30	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$6.12	$4.19	WIN	98°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$9.99	$6.84	WIN	98°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$5.41	$3.70	WIN	98°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.600	$10.70	-$10.81	LOSS	98°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$3.65	$2.50	WIN	98°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.600	$7.22	-$7.29	LOSS	98°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$12.10	$1.93	WIN	76°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$12.10	$6.13	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$32.06	$5.11	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$32.06	$16.24	WIN	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$19.77	$3.15	WIN	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$19.77	$10.02	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-19	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$10.70	-$10.80	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$10.70	$5.42	WIN	76°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$7.22	$1.15	WIN	76°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-19	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$1.20	-$1.21	LOSS	90°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-19	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$32.06	-$32.30	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-19	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$1.06	-$1.07	LOSS	90°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$32.06	-$32.25	LOSS	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$19.77	-$19.89	LOSS	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-19	82-83°F	NO	0.610	$13.71	$8.63	WIN	80°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$32.06	$6.89	WIN	78°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.590	$9.36	-$9.45	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.720	$6.59	$2.52	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.590	$7.39	-$7.47	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.590	$5.39	-$5.44	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$12.95	$2.98	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$11.93	-$12.01	LOSS	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$40.44	$9.29	WIN	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$37.26	-$37.53	LOSS	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$20.85	$4.79	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-18	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$10.23	$5.66	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$9.42	-$9.49	LOSS	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	82-83°F	NO	0.991	$7.46	$0.07	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	84-85°F	NO	0.970	$7.46	$0.23	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$7.46	$1.71	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$7.46	$4.13	WIN	90°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$12.95	$5.72	WIN	96°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$10.39	-$10.49	LOSS	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$40.44	$17.86	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$10.23	$4.52	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$8.21	-$8.29	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$7.46	$3.29	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$5.98	-$6.04	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$12.95	$1.93	WIN	94°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$40.44	$6.02	WIN	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$20.85	$3.10	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.430	$10.23	-$10.38	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.430	$7.46	-$7.56	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$3.54	$0.53	WIN	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-18	74-75°F	NO	0.850	$12.95	$2.24	WIN	78°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-18	74-75°F	NO	0.850	$40.44	$6.99	WIN	78°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-18	74-75°F	NO	0.850	$20.85	$3.60	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-18	76-77°F	NO	0.640	$10.23	$5.66	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-18	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$9.30	-$9.38	LOSS	78°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.530	$7.66	-$7.75	LOSS	90°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$12.46	$7.20	WIN	90°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$40.44	$23.38	WIN	90°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-18	77°F or below	NO	0.850	$40.44	$6.99	WIN	80°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-18	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$40.44	$11.18	WIN	80°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-18	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$3.19	-$3.21	LOSS	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-18	77°F or below	NO	0.850	$20.85	$3.60	WIN	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-18	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$20.85	$5.76	WIN	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-18	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$20.85	-$21.00	LOSS	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$11.86	-$11.92	LOSS	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$11.86	$7.79	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$32.51	-$32.68	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$17.74	-$17.83	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$17.74	$11.65	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$9.83	$6.46	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$7.65	-$7.69	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$7.65	$5.02	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$11.86	$1.58	WIN	92°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$32.51	$4.34	WIN	92°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$17.74	$2.37	WIN	92°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.670	$9.83	$4.76	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$7.65	$1.02	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$7.65	$2.24	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.670	$7.65	$3.71	WIN	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$11.86	-$11.92	LOSS	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$32.51	-$32.69	LOSS	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$17.74	-$17.84	LOSS	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$9.83	$6.19	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$7.65	$4.82	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$7.65	-$7.69	LOSS	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-17	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$11.86	$1.15	WIN	86°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-17	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$32.51	$3.14	WIN	86°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-17	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$17.74	$1.71	WIN	86°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-17	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$9.83	$5.44	WIN	86°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-17	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$9.83	$5.93	WIN	86°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.560	$5.64	$4.37	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.560	$8.43	$6.53	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$9.83	-$9.92	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-17	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$11.86	$1.43	WIN	86°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.670	$11.86	$5.74	WIN	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-17	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$32.51	$3.93	WIN	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.670	$32.51	$15.75	WIN	86°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-17	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$17.74	$2.14	WIN	86°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$9.83	-$9.94	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$9.83	$3.75	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$7.65	-$7.74	LOSS	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$12.85	$9.56	WIN	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$12.85	-$12.91	LOSS	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$45.14	-$45.37	LOSS	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$22.13	$16.46	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$22.13	-$22.25	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$9.51	$7.07	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$7.28	$5.41	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$7.28	-$7.31	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$12.85	$3.55	WIN	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$45.14	$12.48	WIN	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$22.13	$6.12	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.740	$9.51	-$9.57	LOSS	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$9.51	$4.40	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$7.28	$2.01	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.740	$7.28	-$7.32	LOSS	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$7.28	$3.37	WIN	90°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$12.85	$3.55	WIN	88°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$45.14	$12.48	WIN	88°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$22.13	$6.12	WIN	88°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-16	88-89°F	NO	0.670	$2.39	-$2.41	LOSS	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$7.28	$2.01	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.895	$7.28	$0.83	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.970	$7.28	$0.22	WIN	88°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-16	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$12.85	$2.95	WIN	82°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-16	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$12.85	-$12.92	LOSS	82°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-16	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$45.14	$10.37	WIN	82°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-16	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$45.14	-$45.39	LOSS	82°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-16	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$22.13	$5.09	WIN	82°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-16	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$22.13	-$22.26	LOSS	82°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-16	80-81°F	NO	0.590	$9.51	$6.51	WIN	82°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$10.38	$4.80	WIN	96°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.510	$7.59	$7.20	WIN	96°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$36.46	$16.87	WIN	96°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$7.68	$3.55	WIN	96°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.510	$5.61	$5.32	WIN	96°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$7.73	$1.66	WIN	88°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$45.14	$9.71	WIN	88°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$45.14	$18.11	WIN	88°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$22.13	$4.76	WIN	88°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$9.51	$4.00	WIN	88°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$3.33	$1.34	WIN	88°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-16	66-67°F	NO	0.800	$8.68	$2.13	WIN	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-16	66-67°F	NO	0.800	$22.13	$5.42	WIN	64°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.510	$9.51	-$9.62	LOSS	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-15	84-85°F	NO	0.820	$12.62	$2.71	WIN	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-15	86-87°F	NO	0.590	$12.62	$8.64	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-15	84-85°F	NO	0.820	$44.52	$9.57	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-15	84-85°F	NO	0.820	$21.59	$4.64	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-15	86-87°F	NO	0.590	$21.59	$14.78	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-15	86-87°F	NO	0.590	$10.23	$7.00	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-15	84-85°F	NO	0.820	$7.12	$1.53	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-15	86-87°F	NO	0.590	$7.12	$4.87	WIN	88°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-15	88-89°F	NO	0.610	$9.70	$6.11	WIN	90°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-15	88-89°F	NO	0.610	$7.86	$4.95	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-15	88-89°F	NO	0.610	$5.47	$3.45	WIN	90°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$12.62	-$12.70	LOSS	94°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$44.52	-$44.81	LOSS	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$21.59	-$21.73	LOSS	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-15	92-93°F	NO	0.490	$10.23	$10.51	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$10.23	-$10.29	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-15	92-93°F	NO	0.490	$7.12	$7.32	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$7.12	-$7.17	LOSS	94°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-15	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$12.62	-$12.73	LOSS	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$7.82	$7.12	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-15	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$44.52	-$44.89	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-15	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$2.37	-$2.39	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-15	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$12.62	$3.29	WIN	98°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-15	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$44.52	$11.60	WIN	98°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-15	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$21.59	$5.63	WIN	98°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$10.23	-$10.30	LOSS	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-15	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$10.23	$7.00	WIN	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$7.12	-$7.17	LOSS	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-15	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$7.12	$4.87	WIN	94°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-15	78-79°F	NO	0.690	$10.23	$4.52	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-15	80-81°F	NO	0.590	$10.23	-$10.33	LOSS	80°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	48/30	yes
CHI	47/30	yes
DAL	47/30	yes
DEN	48/30	yes
LAX	48/30	yes
MIA	48/30	yes
NYC	47/30	yes
SEA	34/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$3,716.03.