Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated 28 min agoPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-31578 decisions20:30:06 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-06-06: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 55 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 9, 'h2': 6, 'h3': 9, 'h4': 8, 'yes_diag': 14}
settle▸ [settle] settled 34, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-06-06T20:00:03Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-06-06 20:30:06 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

108

Settled trades

176

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$760.51

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 176 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	32	19	22	59%	-0.0827	-0.1170	-0.1689	-$93.63	$1,132
baseline	secondary	FAIL	32	18	23	62%	-0.0652	-0.0925	+0.1470	-$79.54	$1,221
h1	secondary	INCONCLUSIVE	23	17	19	74%	+0.0837	+0.0566	+0.1752	$80.59	$962
h2	secondary	INCONCLUSIVE	17	10	13	65%	-0.1407	-0.1894	-0.1356	-$102.73	$730
h4	secondary	FAIL	46	18	31	50%	-0.1569	-0.1844	+0.2539	-$214.76	$1,369
yes_diag	diagnostic	INCONCLUSIVE	26	26	17	12%	-0.5586	-0.8834	-0.2089	-$350.43	$627

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions108 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$38.72	0.178	0.822
baseline	ATL	2026-06-06	88-89°F	NO	0.560	$22.70	0.313	0.687
baseline	CHI	2026-06-06	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$38.72	0.078	0.922
baseline	CHI	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$38.72	0.203	0.797
baseline	DAL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.650	$38.72	0.213	0.787
baseline	LAX	2026-06-06	70-71°F	NO	0.650	$38.72	0.194	0.806
baseline	MIA	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$38.72	0.148	0.852
baseline	MIA	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.460	$24.52	0.383	0.617
baseline	NYC	2026-06-06	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$30.22	0.208	0.792
h1	ATL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$48.77	0.178	0.822
h1	CHI	2026-06-06	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$48.77	0.078	0.922
h1	CHI	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$48.77	0.203	0.797
h1	DAL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.650	$48.77	0.213	0.787
h1	LAX	2026-06-06	70-71°F	NO	0.650	$48.77	0.194	0.806
h1	MIA	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$48.77	0.148	0.852
h1	NYC	2026-06-06	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$48.77	0.208	0.792
h1	SEA	2026-06-06	54-55°F	NO	0.870	$48.77	0.065	0.935
h2	CHI	2026-06-06	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$36.46	0.078	0.922
h2	MIA	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$36.46	0.148	0.852
h2	MIA	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.460	$23.09	0.383	0.617
h2	SEA	2026-06-06	54-55°F	NO	0.870	$36.46	0.065	0.935
h3	ATL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$39.69	0.178	0.822
h3	ATL	2026-06-06	88-89°F	NO	0.560	$23.28	0.313	0.687
h3	CHI	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$39.69	0.203	0.797
h3	DAL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.650	$39.69	0.213	0.787
h3	DEN	2026-06-06	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$24.08	0.303	0.697
h3	DEN	2026-06-06	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$18.17	0.328	0.672
h3	LAX	2026-06-06	68-69°F	NO	0.600	$39.69	0.087	0.913
h3	LAX	2026-06-06	70-71°F	NO	0.650	$39.69	0.194	0.806
h3	MIA	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.460	$25.13	0.383	0.617
h3	NYC	2026-06-06	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$28.42	0.208	0.792
h4	ATL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$30.84	0.178	0.822
h4	ATL	2026-06-06	88-89°F	NO	0.560	$18.08	0.313	0.687
h4	CHI	2026-06-06	80-81°F	NO	0.930	$30.84	0.027	0.973
h4	CHI	2026-06-06	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$30.84	0.078	0.922
h4	CHI	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$30.84	0.203	0.797
h4	DAL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.650	$30.84	0.213	0.787
h4	DEN	2026-06-06	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$18.71	0.303	0.697
h4	DEN	2026-06-06	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$14.12	0.328	0.672
h4	LAX	2026-06-06	66-67°F	NO	0.930	$30.84	0.034	0.966
h4	LAX	2026-06-06	68-69°F	NO	0.600	$10.76	0.087	0.913
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-06	90-91°F	YES	0.120	$23.02	0.247	0.247
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-06	86-87°F	YES	0.230	$16.50	0.312	0.312
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-06	88-89°F	YES	0.070	$25.68	0.218	0.218
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-06	90°F or higher	YES	0.016	$19.74	0.136	0.136
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-06	82-83°F	YES	0.130	$14.41	0.210	0.210
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-06	72-73°F	YES	0.150	$22.45	0.278	0.278
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-06	74-75°F	YES	0.032	$30.18	0.213	0.213
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-06	76-77°F	YES	0.007	$15.16	0.100	0.100
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-06	88-89°F	YES	0.170	$24.05	0.296	0.296
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-06	90-91°F	YES	0.014	$11.74	0.086	0.086
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-06	96-97°F	YES	0.010	$12.60	0.087	0.087
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-06	58-59°F	YES	0.310	$14.71	0.377	0.377
baseline	ATL	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$30.41	0.079	0.921
baseline	ATL	2026-06-07	82-83°F	NO	0.690	$30.41	0.208	0.792
baseline	CHI	2026-06-07	78-79°F	NO	0.760	$30.41	0.062	0.938
baseline	CHI	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.640	$30.41	0.170	0.830
baseline	DAL	2026-06-07	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$26.45	0.235	0.765
baseline	DEN	2026-06-07	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$30.41	0.224	0.776
baseline	LAX	2026-06-07	68-69°F	NO	0.750	$30.41	0.111	0.889
baseline	LAX	2026-06-07	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$30.41	0.226	0.774
baseline	MIA	2026-06-07	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$3.96	0.180	0.820
h1	ATL	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$34.39	0.079	0.921
h1	ATL	2026-06-07	82-83°F	NO	0.690	$34.39	0.208	0.792
h1	CHI	2026-06-07	78-79°F	NO	0.760	$34.39	0.062	0.938
h1	CHI	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.640	$34.39	0.170	0.830
h1	DAL	2026-06-07	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$29.91	0.235	0.765
h1	DEN	2026-06-07	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$34.39	0.224	0.776
h1	LAX	2026-06-07	68-69°F	NO	0.750	$34.39	0.111	0.889
h1	LAX	2026-06-07	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$34.39	0.226	0.774
h1	MIA	2026-06-07	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$4.48	0.180	0.820
h2	ATL	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$38.20	0.079	0.921
h2	CHI	2026-06-07	78-79°F	NO	0.760	$38.20	0.062	0.938
h2	CHI	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.640	$38.20	0.170	0.830
h2	LAX	2026-06-07	68-69°F	NO	0.750	$38.20	0.111	0.889
h2	NYC	2026-06-07	82-83°F	NO	0.830	$38.20	0.104	0.896
h2	SEA	2026-06-07	60-61°F	NO	0.890	$38.20	0.055	0.945
h3	ATL	2026-06-07	82-83°F	NO	0.690	$29.30	0.208	0.792
h3	CHI	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.640	$29.30	0.170	0.830
h3	DAL	2026-06-07	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$25.48	0.235	0.765
h3	DEN	2026-06-07	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$29.30	0.224	0.776
h3	LAX	2026-06-07	68-69°F	NO	0.750	$29.30	0.111	0.889
h3	LAX	2026-06-07	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$29.30	0.226	0.774
h3	MIA	2026-06-07	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$29.30	0.180	0.820
h3	MIA	2026-06-07	88-89°F	NO	0.540	$12.11	0.403	0.597
h3	NYC	2026-06-07	84-85°F	NO	0.610	$21.00	0.238	0.762
h4	ATL	2026-06-07	78-79°F	NO	0.940	$26.85	0.026	0.974
h4	ATL	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$26.85	0.079	0.921
h4	ATL	2026-06-07	82-83°F	NO	0.690	$26.85	0.208	0.792
h4	CHI	2026-06-07	78-79°F	NO	0.760	$26.85	0.062	0.938
h4	CHI	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.640	$26.85	0.170	0.830
h4	DAL	2026-06-07	92-93°F	NO	0.870	$26.85	0.099	0.901
h4	DEN	2026-06-07	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$26.85	0.224	0.776
h4	LAX	2026-06-07	68-69°F	NO	0.750	$26.85	0.111	0.889
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-07	84-85°F	YES	0.270	$6.45	0.320	0.320
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-07	86-87°F	YES	0.126	$10.43	0.217	0.217
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-07	84-85°F	YES	0.100	$17.24	0.252	0.252
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-07	86-87°F	YES	0.020	$9.33	0.109	0.109
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-07	88°F or higher	YES	0.009	$5.41	0.061	0.061
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-07	86-87°F	YES	0.100	$9.85	0.188	0.188
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-07	86-87°F	YES	0.010	$5.82	0.066	0.066
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-07	88-89°F	YES	0.110	$11.54	0.211	0.211
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-07	72-73°F	YES	0.220	$4.42	0.276	0.276
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-07	74-75°F	YES	0.054	$13.65	0.180	0.180
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-07	76-77°F	YES	0.010	$7.11	0.078	0.078
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-07	90-91°F	YES	0.090	$18.97	0.258	0.258
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-07	92-93°F	YES	0.005	$6.71	0.070	0.070
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-07	88-89°F	YES	0.080	$11.25	0.182	0.182

Settlements176 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$36.26	-$36.58	LOSS	84°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$41.70	-$42.08	LOSS	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$36.10	-$36.43	LOSS	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-05	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$5.94	$3.01	WIN	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$32.79	-$33.08	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-05	88-89°F	YES	0.100	$13.59	-$13.89	LOSS	84°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-05	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$36.26	-$36.42	LOSS	82°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$36.26	$18.37	WIN	82°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-05	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$41.87	-$42.05	LOSS	82°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-05	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$41.70	-$41.89	LOSS	82°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$41.70	$21.13	WIN	82°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$36.10	$18.29	WIN	82°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$32.79	$16.61	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-05	88°F or higher	YES	0.120	$23.37	-$23.88	LOSS	82°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-05	68-69°F	NO	0.860	$36.26	$5.78	WIN	70°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-05	72-73°F	NO	0.740	$36.26	$12.50	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-05	68-69°F	NO	0.860	$41.87	$6.67	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-05	72-73°F	NO	0.740	$41.87	$14.44	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-05	68-69°F	NO	0.860	$41.70	$6.64	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-05	72-73°F	NO	0.740	$41.70	$14.38	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-05	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$36.10	-$36.44	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-05	72-73°F	NO	0.740	$36.10	$12.45	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-05	68-69°F	NO	0.860	$32.79	$5.22	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-05	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$32.79	-$33.09	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-05	72-73°F	NO	0.740	$32.79	$11.31	WIN	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$36.26	-$36.67	LOSS	84°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$41.87	-$42.35	LOSS	84°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$36.10	-$36.52	LOSS	84°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$32.79	-$33.16	LOSS	84°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-05	86-87°F	NO	0.900	$32.79	$3.56	WIN	84°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-05	80-81°F	YES	0.064	$19.15	-$19.60	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-05	82-83°F	YES	0.330	$9.85	-$10.02	LOSS	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-05	72°F or higher	NO	0.003	$6.59	-$6.75	LOSS	72°F
h4	SEA	2026-06-05	69°F or below	NO	0.017	$4.36	-$4.46	LOSS	69°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.580	$37.43	-$37.82	LOSS	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$37.43	$18.13	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$42.75	$20.70	WIN	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.580	$38.85	-$39.26	LOSS	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$38.85	$18.81	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.580	$29.65	-$29.96	LOSS	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$29.65	$14.36	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-04	78-79°F	YES	0.030	$10.07	-$10.31	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-04	80-81°F	YES	0.120	$20.07	-$20.51	LOSS	82°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$37.43	$10.35	WIN	86°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$37.43	$20.72	WIN	86°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$42.75	$11.82	WIN	86°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$42.75	$23.66	WIN	86°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$38.15	$10.55	WIN	86°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$38.85	$21.50	WIN	86°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$29.65	$8.20	WIN	86°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$29.65	$16.41	WIN	86°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-04	88-89°F	YES	0.110	$12.70	-$12.98	LOSS	86°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.510	$25.01	-$25.31	LOSS	82°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.510	$25.96	-$26.27	LOSS	82°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.510	$17.88	-$18.10	LOSS	82°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.680	$37.43	$17.31	WIN	86°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-04	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$32.69	-$32.97	LOSS	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.680	$42.75	$19.78	WIN	86°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.680	$38.15	$17.65	WIN	86°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-04	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$33.32	-$33.60	LOSS	86°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.680	$38.85	$17.97	WIN	86°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-04	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$33.93	-$34.22	LOSS	86°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-04	88-89°F	YES	0.190	$18.37	-$18.74	LOSS	86°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-04	90-91°F	YES	0.039	$18.77	-$19.22	LOSS	86°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-04	66-67°F	NO	0.660	$33.66	$17.06	WIN	68°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-04	66-67°F	NO	0.660	$38.45	$19.48	WIN	68°F
h3	SEA	2026-06-04	66-67°F	NO	0.660	$17.81	$9.02	WIN	68°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-04	68-69°F	YES	0.300	$7.68	$17.79	WIN	68°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-04	70-71°F	NO	0.680	$38.85	-$39.16	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-04	72-73°F	NO	0.680	$38.85	$17.97	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-04	68-69°F	NO	0.950	$29.65	$1.52	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-04	70-71°F	NO	0.680	$29.65	-$29.88	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-04	72-73°F	NO	0.680	$29.65	$13.71	WIN	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-04	66°F or higher	NO	0.003	$5.95	-$6.10	LOSS	66°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-04	74°F or higher	NO	0.004	$5.82	-$5.96	LOSS	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.750	$47.90	$15.67	WIN	78°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.750	$51.40	$16.81	WIN	78°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.750	$50.14	$16.40	WIN	78°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-03	85°F or below	NO	0.070	$16.36	-$16.74	LOSS	85°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-03	85°F or below	NO	0.070	$17.56	-$17.96	LOSS	85°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-03	85°F or below	NO	0.070	$15.30	-$15.66	LOSS	85°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$47.90	$12.48	WIN	82°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$47.90	$28.91	WIN	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$51.40	$13.39	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$44.93	$11.71	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$44.93	$27.11	WIN	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$50.14	$30.26	WIN	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-03	82-83°F	NO	0.700	$4.31	-$4.34	LOSS	82°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$44.80	$11.67	WIN	82°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$44.80	$27.03	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-03	84-85°F	YES	0.060	$23.61	-$24.17	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-03	86°F or higher	YES	0.013	$19.26	-$19.73	LOSS	82°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-03	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$47.90	$7.63	WIN	66°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-03	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$51.40	$8.19	WIN	66°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-03	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$44.93	$7.16	WIN	66°F
h4	SEA	2026-06-03	62-63°F	NO	0.968	$44.80	$1.44	WIN	66°F
h4	SEA	2026-06-03	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$44.80	$7.14	WIN	66°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-03	66°F or higher	YES	0.820	$45.82	$9.85	WIN	66°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-03	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$19.18	$8.07	WIN	88°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-03	68-69°F	NO	0.710	$50.14	-$50.50	LOSS	68°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-03	70-71°F	NO	0.600	$50.14	$32.93	WIN	68°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-03	68-69°F	NO	0.710	$44.80	-$45.12	LOSS	68°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-03	70-71°F	NO	0.600	$44.80	$29.42	WIN	68°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-03	72-73°F	YES	0.180	$19.97	-$20.38	LOSS	68°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-03	74-75°F	YES	0.040	$42.48	-$43.50	LOSS	68°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-03	76°F or higher	YES	0.020	$36.60	-$37.50	LOSS	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-03	74°F or higher	NO	0.009	$7.72	-$7.91	LOSS	74°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-03	78°F or higher	NO	0.041	$8.82	-$9.03	LOSS	78°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$34.87	-$35.20	LOSS	72°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$42.47	-$42.87	LOSS	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$42.13	-$42.53	LOSS	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$33.86	-$34.19	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-01	74-75°F	YES	0.230	$13.46	-$13.72	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-01	76°F or higher	YES	0.160	$16.46	-$16.81	LOSS	72°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-01	94°F or higher	NO	0.170	$13.11	-$13.38	LOSS	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-01	94°F or higher	NO	0.170	$14.07	-$14.36	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-01	94°F or higher	NO	0.170	$12.73	-$13.00	LOSS	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$34.87	$13.32	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$37.43	$14.29	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$42.47	$16.22	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$42.13	-$42.44	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$42.13	$16.09	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$33.86	-$34.11	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$33.86	$12.93	WIN	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$34.87	$25.93	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-01	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$34.87	-$35.04	LOSS	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$37.43	$27.83	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-01	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$37.43	-$37.61	LOSS	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-01	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$42.47	-$42.68	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$42.13	$31.33	WIN	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$33.86	$25.18	WIN	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-01	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$33.86	-$34.03	LOSS	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-01	94-95°F	NO	0.950	$33.86	$1.74	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-01	86-87°F	YES	0.036	$32.40	-$33.18	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-01	88-89°F	YES	0.260	$33.26	-$33.88	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.700	$34.87	$14.68	WIN	68°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$29.08	$16.81	WIN	68°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.700	$37.43	$15.76	WIN	68°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.700	$42.13	$17.74	WIN	68°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$35.14	$20.31	WIN	68°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.700	$33.86	$14.26	WIN	68°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$17.41	$10.06	WIN	68°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-01	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$8.95	$4.53	WIN	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-01	76°F or higher	NO	0.040	$3.73	-$3.82	LOSS	76°F
baseline	ATL	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.820	$50.00	$10.75	WIN	74°F
h1	ATL	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.820	$50.00	$10.75	WIN	74°F
h2	ATL	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.820	$50.00	$10.75	WIN	74°F
h3	ATL	2026-05-31	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$33.90	-$34.16	LOSS	74°F
h4	ATL	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.820	$50.00	$10.75	WIN	74°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-05-31	76°F or higher	YES	0.430	$29.19	-$29.60	LOSS	74°F
baseline	DEN	2026-05-31	78°F or higher	NO	0.100	$50.00	-$51.12	LOSS	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-05-31	78°F or higher	NO	0.100	$50.00	-$51.12	LOSS	78°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-05-31	76-77°F	YES	0.080	$28.36	-$29.02	LOSS	78°F
baseline	LAX	2026-05-31	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$50.00	-$50.20	LOSS	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-05-31	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$50.00	-$50.20	LOSS	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-05-31	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$50.00	-$50.20	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-05-31	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$50.00	-$50.20	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-05-31	72°F or higher	YES	0.830	$50.00	-$50.21	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-05-31	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$50.00	$25.33	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-05-31	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$50.00	$25.33	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-05-31	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$50.00	$25.33	WIN	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-05-31	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$50.00	$25.33	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-05-31	92-93°F	YES	0.130	$26.98	$179.97	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.870	$50.00	$7.31	WIN	76°F
baseline	NYC	2026-05-31	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$50.00	$28.90	WIN	76°F
h1	NYC	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.870	$50.00	$7.31	WIN	76°F
h1	NYC	2026-05-31	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$50.00	$28.90	WIN	76°F
h2	NYC	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.870	$50.00	$7.31	WIN	76°F
h3	NYC	2026-05-31	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$50.00	$28.90	WIN	76°F
h3	NYC	2026-05-31	76-77°F	NO	0.650	$22.10	-$22.29	LOSS	76°F
h4	NYC	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.870	$50.00	$7.31	WIN	76°F
h4	NYC	2026-05-31	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$50.00	$28.90	WIN	76°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-05-31	78-79°F	YES	0.110	$34.37	-$35.14	LOSS	76°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-05-31	80-81°F	YES	0.017	$21.53	-$22.06	LOSS	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-05-31	66°F or higher	NO	0.004	$9.84	-$10.08	LOSS	66°F
h4	DAL	2026-05-31	92°F or higher	NO	0.130	$9.80	-$10.02	LOSS	92°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	5/30	no
CHI	4/30	no
DAL	5/30	no
DEN	5/30	no
LAX	5/30	no
MIA	5/30	no
NYC	4/30	no
SEA	3/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$760.51.