Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated 27 min agoPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-3110662 decisions20:30:08 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-10-01: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 36 positions {'baseline': 8, 'h1': 8, 'h2': 4, 'h3': 8, 'h4': 8, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 39, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-10-01T20:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 24 snapshots written
rendered 2026-10-01 20:30:08 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

4832

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$5,112.91

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 4832 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	1084	16	746	58%	-0.0773	-0.0808	-0.1828	-$906.44	$11,726
baseline	secondary	FAIL	969	15	678	67%	-0.0761	-0.0790	-0.0400	-$874.39	$11,486
h1	secondary	FAIL	739	13	582	73%	-0.0343	-0.0360	-0.0706	-$690.42	$20,122
h2	secondary	FAIL	744	10	554	71%	-0.0533	-0.0559	-0.0366	-$756.56	$14,202
h4	secondary	FAIL	1040	16	544	66%	-0.0949	-0.0985	-0.0716	-$905.03	$9,534
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions70 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-10-01	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$3.46	0.294	0.706
baseline	CHI	2026-10-01	74-75°F	NO	0.730	$4.04	0.174	0.826
baseline	CHI	2026-10-01	76-77°F	NO	0.882	$4.04	0.064	0.936
baseline	DAL	2026-10-01	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$4.04	0.074	0.926
baseline	DEN	2026-10-01	68-69°F	NO	0.600	$4.04	0.306	0.694
baseline	DEN	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.750	$4.04	0.118	0.882
baseline	SEA	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.888	$4.04	0.024	0.976
h1	CHI	2026-10-01	74-75°F	NO	0.730	$11.92	0.174	0.826
h1	CHI	2026-10-01	76-77°F	NO	0.882	$11.92	0.064	0.936
h1	DAL	2026-10-01	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$11.92	0.074	0.926
h1	DEN	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.750	$11.92	0.118	0.882
h1	SEA	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.888	$11.92	0.024	0.976
h2	ATL	2026-10-01	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$7.97	0.294	0.706
h2	CHI	2026-10-01	76-77°F	NO	0.882	$9.31	0.064	0.936
h2	DAL	2026-10-01	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$9.31	0.074	0.926
h2	DEN	2026-10-01	68-69°F	NO	0.600	$9.31	0.306	0.694
h2	DEN	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.750	$9.31	0.118	0.882
h2	SEA	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.888	$9.31	0.024	0.976
h3	ATL	2026-10-01	86-87°F	NO	0.520	$3.13	0.143	0.857
h3	ATL	2026-10-01	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$2.68	0.294	0.706
h3	CHI	2026-10-01	74-75°F	NO	0.730	$3.13	0.174	0.826
h3	DAL	2026-10-01	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$3.13	0.074	0.926
h3	DEN	2026-10-01	68-69°F	NO	0.600	$3.13	0.306	0.694
h3	DEN	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.750	$3.13	0.118	0.882
h3	LAX	2026-10-01	76-77°F	NO	0.640	$3.13	0.093	0.907
h3	LAX	2026-10-01	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$3.13	0.202	0.798
h4	ATL	2026-10-01	86-87°F	NO	0.520	$3.24	0.143	0.857
h4	ATL	2026-10-01	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$2.77	0.294	0.706
h4	CHI	2026-10-01	74-75°F	NO	0.730	$3.24	0.174	0.826
h4	CHI	2026-10-01	76-77°F	NO	0.882	$3.24	0.064	0.936
h4	DAL	2026-10-01	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$3.24	0.074	0.926
h4	DEN	2026-10-01	68-69°F	NO	0.600	$3.24	0.306	0.694
h4	DEN	2026-10-01	70-71°F	NO	0.750	$3.24	0.118	0.882
h4	LAX	2026-10-01	76-77°F	NO	0.640	$3.24	0.093	0.907
baseline	ATL	2026-10-02	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$4.89	0.095	0.905
baseline	ATL	2026-10-02	86-87°F	NO	0.570	$4.89	0.237	0.763
baseline	CHI	2026-10-02	66-67°F	NO	0.650	$4.89	0.209	0.791
baseline	DAL	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$4.89	0.206	0.794
baseline	DEN	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$4.89	0.221	0.779
baseline	LAX	2026-10-02	82-83°F	NO	0.890	$4.89	0.007	0.993
baseline	NYC	2026-10-02	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$4.89	0.068	0.932
baseline	SEA	2026-10-02	72-73°F	NO	0.770	$4.89	0.151	0.849
h1	ATL	2026-10-02	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$12.49	0.095	0.905
h1	ATL	2026-10-02	86-87°F	NO	0.570	$12.49	0.237	0.763
h1	CHI	2026-10-02	66-67°F	NO	0.650	$12.49	0.209	0.791
h1	DAL	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$12.49	0.206	0.794
h1	DEN	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$12.49	0.221	0.779
h1	LAX	2026-10-02	82-83°F	NO	0.890	$12.49	0.007	0.993
h1	NYC	2026-10-02	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$12.49	0.068	0.932
h1	SEA	2026-10-02	72-73°F	NO	0.770	$12.49	0.151	0.849
h2	ATL	2026-10-02	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$9.43	0.095	0.905
h2	LAX	2026-10-02	82-83°F	NO	0.890	$9.43	0.007	0.993
h2	NYC	2026-10-02	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$9.43	0.068	0.932
h2	SEA	2026-10-02	72-73°F	NO	0.770	$9.43	0.151	0.849
h3	ATL	2026-10-02	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$3.44	0.095	0.905
h3	ATL	2026-10-02	86-87°F	NO	0.570	$3.44	0.237	0.763
h3	CHI	2026-10-02	64-65°F	NO	0.440	$3.44	0.315	0.685
h3	CHI	2026-10-02	66-67°F	NO	0.650	$3.44	0.209	0.791
h3	DAL	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$3.44	0.206	0.794
h3	DEN	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$3.44	0.221	0.779
h3	DEN	2026-10-02	82-83°F	NO	0.620	$3.44	0.070	0.930
h3	LAX	2026-10-02	84-85°F	NO	0.720	$3.44	0.016	0.984
h4	ATL	2026-10-02	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$3.47	0.095	0.905
h4	ATL	2026-10-02	86-87°F	NO	0.570	$3.47	0.237	0.763
h4	CHI	2026-10-02	64-65°F	NO	0.440	$3.47	0.315	0.685
h4	CHI	2026-10-02	66-67°F	NO	0.650	$3.47	0.209	0.791
h4	DAL	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$3.47	0.206	0.794
h4	DEN	2026-10-02	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$3.47	0.221	0.779
h4	DEN	2026-10-02	82-83°F	NO	0.620	$3.47	0.070	0.930
h4	LAX	2026-10-02	82-83°F	NO	0.890	$3.47	0.007	0.993

Settlements4832 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-09-30	84-85°F	NO	0.840	$4.44	$0.83	WIN	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-30	84-85°F	NO	0.840	$11.26	$2.10	WIN	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-30	84-85°F	NO	0.840	$9.55	$1.78	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-30	86-87°F	NO	0.380	$3.15	-$3.19	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-30	84-85°F	NO	0.840	$3.39	$0.63	WIN	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-30	86-87°F	NO	0.380	$3.39	-$3.45	LOSS	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-30	68-69°F	NO	0.510	$2.59	$2.46	WIN	70°F
h2	CHI	2026-09-30	68-69°F	NO	0.510	$5.57	$5.29	WIN	70°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-30	68-69°F	NO	0.510	$1.84	$1.74	WIN	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-30	68-69°F	NO	0.510	$1.98	$1.88	WIN	70°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-30	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$4.22	$2.65	WIN	90°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-30	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$4.44	$1.78	WIN	90°F
h1	DAL	2026-09-30	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$11.26	$4.52	WIN	90°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-30	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$2.99	$1.88	WIN	90°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-30	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$3.15	$1.26	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-30	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$3.22	$2.03	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-30	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$3.39	$1.36	WIN	90°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-30	62-63°F	NO	0.810	$4.44	-$4.46	LOSS	62°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-30	64-65°F	NO	0.900	$4.44	$0.48	WIN	62°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-30	62-63°F	NO	0.810	$11.26	-$11.31	LOSS	62°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-30	64-65°F	NO	0.900	$11.26	$1.22	WIN	62°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-30	62-63°F	NO	0.810	$9.55	-$9.59	LOSS	62°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-30	64-65°F	NO	0.900	$9.55	$1.04	WIN	62°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-30	60-61°F	NO	0.710	$2.43	$0.98	WIN	62°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-30	60-61°F	NO	0.710	$2.63	$1.05	WIN	62°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-30	62-63°F	NO	0.810	$3.39	-$3.41	LOSS	62°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-30	64-65°F	NO	0.900	$3.39	$0.37	WIN	62°F
baseline	MIA	2026-09-30	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$4.44	$1.61	WIN	84°F
h1	MIA	2026-09-30	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$11.26	$4.09	WIN	84°F
h3	MIA	2026-09-30	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$3.15	$1.14	WIN	84°F
baseline	NYC	2026-09-30	74-75°F	NO	0.520	$3.00	$2.73	WIN	72°F
h2	NYC	2026-09-30	74-75°F	NO	0.520	$6.44	$5.87	WIN	72°F
h3	NYC	2026-09-30	74-75°F	NO	0.520	$2.12	$1.93	WIN	72°F
baseline	SEA	2026-09-30	66-67°F	NO	0.800	$3.52	$0.86	WIN	64°F
h1	SEA	2026-09-30	66-67°F	NO	0.800	$11.26	$2.76	WIN	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-09-30	66-67°F	NO	0.800	$9.55	$2.34	WIN	64°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-30	78-79°F	NO	0.500	$3.15	$3.11	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-30	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$3.15	-$3.18	LOSS	80°F
h4	LAX	2026-09-30	78-79°F	NO	0.500	$2.35	$2.32	WIN	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-29	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$4.29	$0.92	WIN	84°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-29	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$12.50	$2.69	WIN	84°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-29	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$9.17	$1.97	WIN	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-29	84-85°F	NO	0.420	$3.28	-$3.33	LOSS	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-29	84-85°F	NO	0.420	$3.33	-$3.38	LOSS	84°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-29	70-71°F	NO	0.810	$4.29	-$4.31	LOSS	70°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-29	72-73°F	NO	0.930	$4.29	$0.32	WIN	70°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-29	70-71°F	NO	0.810	$12.50	-$12.56	LOSS	70°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-29	72-73°F	NO	0.930	$12.50	$0.92	WIN	70°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-29	70-71°F	NO	0.810	$9.17	-$9.21	LOSS	70°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-29	72-73°F	NO	0.930	$9.17	$0.67	WIN	70°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-29	68-69°F	NO	0.710	$3.28	$1.32	WIN	70°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-29	66-67°F	NO	0.790	$1.47	$0.38	WIN	70°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-29	68-69°F	NO	0.710	$3.33	$1.34	WIN	70°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-29	70-71°F	NO	0.810	$3.33	-$3.35	LOSS	70°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-29	72-73°F	NO	0.930	$3.33	$0.25	WIN	70°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-29	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$4.29	$1.12	WIN	82°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-29	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$4.29	$1.81	WIN	82°F
h1	LAX	2026-09-29	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$12.50	$3.26	WIN	82°F
h1	LAX	2026-09-29	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$12.50	$5.26	WIN	82°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-29	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$9.17	$2.39	WIN	82°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-29	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$9.17	$3.86	WIN	82°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-29	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$3.28	$1.38	WIN	82°F
h4	LAX	2026-09-29	76-77°F	NO	0.942	$3.07	$0.18	WIN	82°F
baseline	SEA	2026-09-29	64-65°F	NO	0.670	$4.29	$2.08	WIN	62°F
h1	SEA	2026-09-29	64-65°F	NO	0.670	$12.50	$6.05	WIN	62°F
h3	SEA	2026-09-29	64-65°F	NO	0.670	$3.28	$1.59	WIN	62°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-29	76-77°F	NO	0.470	$2.10	$2.34	WIN	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-29	76-77°F	NO	0.470	$2.13	$2.37	WIN	78°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-29	92-93°F	NO	0.520	$3.28	$2.99	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-29	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$3.28	-$3.31	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-29	92-93°F	NO	0.520	$3.33	$3.04	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-29	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$3.33	-$3.37	LOSS	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-09-29	70-71°F	NO	0.400	$3.10	-$3.14	LOSS	70°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-28	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$4.25	-$4.28	LOSS	80°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-28	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$12.47	-$12.57	LOSS	80°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-28	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$9.98	-$10.06	LOSS	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-28	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$3.01	-$3.03	LOSS	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-28	82-83°F	NO	0.450	$3.01	$3.63	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-28	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$3.21	-$3.24	LOSS	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-28	82-83°F	NO	0.450	$3.21	$3.88	WIN	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-28	74-75°F	NO	0.650	$3.41	$1.81	WIN	72°F
h2	CHI	2026-09-28	74-75°F	NO	0.650	$8.01	$4.24	WIN	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.470	$3.01	-$3.05	LOSS	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-28	74-75°F	NO	0.650	$2.42	$1.28	WIN	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.470	$3.21	-$3.25	LOSS	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-28	74-75°F	NO	0.650	$2.58	$1.37	WIN	72°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-28	70-71°F	NO	0.820	$4.25	$0.91	WIN	68°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$4.25	$1.79	WIN	68°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-28	70-71°F	NO	0.820	$12.47	$2.68	WIN	68°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$12.47	$5.25	WIN	68°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-28	70-71°F	NO	0.820	$9.98	$2.15	WIN	68°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$3.01	$1.27	WIN	68°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-28	70-71°F	NO	0.820	$3.21	$0.69	WIN	68°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-28	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$3.21	$1.35	WIN	68°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-28	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$4.25	$2.15	WIN	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-28	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$9.98	$5.06	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-28	76-77°F	NO	0.420	$2.42	-$2.46	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-28	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$2.08	$1.05	WIN	76°F
baseline	MIA	2026-09-28	88-89°F	NO	0.500	$2.67	-$2.70	LOSS	88°F
baseline	MIA	2026-09-28	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$4.25	$1.70	WIN	88°F
h1	MIA	2026-09-28	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$12.47	$5.00	WIN	88°F
h2	MIA	2026-09-28	88-89°F	NO	0.500	$6.27	-$6.34	LOSS	88°F
h2	MIA	2026-09-28	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$9.98	$4.00	WIN	88°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-28	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$2.11	-$2.12	LOSS	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-28	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$3.01	$1.59	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-28	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$3.21	$1.70	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-28	96-97°F	NO	0.910	$3.21	$0.31	WIN	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-27	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$4.80	-$4.85	LOSS	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.560	$3.72	$2.88	WIN	80°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-27	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$12.60	-$12.71	LOSS	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-27	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$3.38	-$3.41	LOSS	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.560	$2.61	$2.02	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-27	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$3.41	-$3.45	LOSS	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.560	$2.64	$2.05	WIN	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-27	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$3.38	$1.96	WIN	72°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-27	72-73°F	NO	0.580	$4.80	-$4.85	LOSS	72°F
h2	CHI	2026-09-27	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$7.35	$4.25	WIN	72°F
h2	CHI	2026-09-27	72-73°F	NO	0.580	$10.44	-$10.55	LOSS	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-27	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$2.38	$1.38	WIN	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-27	72-73°F	NO	0.580	$3.38	-$3.41	LOSS	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-27	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$2.41	$1.39	WIN	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-27	72-73°F	NO	0.580	$3.41	-$3.45	LOSS	72°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-27	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$4.80	$2.22	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-09-27	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$12.60	$5.83	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-27	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$3.38	$1.56	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-27	90-91°F	NO	0.890	$2.58	$0.31	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-27	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$3.41	$1.58	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-09-27	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$4.80	-$4.84	LOSS	84°F
h1	DEN	2026-09-27	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$12.60	-$12.68	LOSS	84°F
h2	DEN	2026-09-27	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$10.44	-$10.50	LOSS	84°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.430	$3.38	$4.43	WIN	84°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-27	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$3.38	-$3.40	LOSS	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.430	$3.41	$4.48	WIN	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-27	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$3.41	-$3.44	LOSS	84°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-27	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$4.80	$1.25	WIN	84°F
h1	LAX	2026-09-27	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$12.60	$3.28	WIN	84°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-27	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$10.44	$2.72	WIN	84°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-27	80-81°F	NO	0.560	$3.38	$2.62	WIN	84°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-27	82-83°F	NO	0.720	$1.76	$0.67	WIN	84°F
h4	LAX	2026-09-27	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$2.62	$0.68	WIN	84°F
baseline	MIA	2026-09-27	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$4.80	-$4.85	LOSS	88°F
h1	MIA	2026-09-27	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$12.60	-$12.72	LOSS	88°F
baseline	NYC	2026-09-27	62-63°F	NO	0.770	$2.51	$0.73	WIN	64°F
h1	NYC	2026-09-27	62-63°F	NO	0.770	$12.60	$3.69	WIN	64°F
h2	NYC	2026-09-27	62-63°F	NO	0.770	$10.44	$3.06	WIN	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-09-27	64-65°F	NO	0.550	$10.44	-$10.55	LOSS	64°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$3.84	$1.06	WIN	80°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$13.28	$3.67	WIN	80°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$9.13	$2.52	WIN	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-26	80-81°F	NO	0.470	$3.04	-$3.08	LOSS	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$3.07	$0.85	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-26	80-81°F	NO	0.470	$3.07	-$3.11	LOSS	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-26	70-71°F	NO	0.610	$3.84	$2.42	WIN	68°F
h2	CHI	2026-09-26	70-71°F	NO	0.610	$9.13	$5.75	WIN	68°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-26	68-69°F	NO	0.480	$1.75	-$1.77	LOSS	68°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-26	70-71°F	NO	0.610	$3.04	$1.92	WIN	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-26	68-69°F	NO	0.480	$1.77	-$1.79	LOSS	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-26	70-71°F	NO	0.610	$3.07	$1.93	WIN	68°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$3.84	$1.33	WIN	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-09-26	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$3.84	$2.32	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$13.28	$4.58	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-09-26	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$13.28	$8.01	WIN	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$9.13	$3.15	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$3.04	$1.05	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-09-26	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$3.04	$1.84	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$3.07	$1.06	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-09-26	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$3.07	$1.85	WIN	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$3.84	$1.13	WIN	80°F
h1	LAX	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$13.28	$3.89	WIN	80°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-26	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$9.13	$2.67	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-09-26	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$3.04	-$3.07	LOSS	80°F
baseline	NYC	2026-09-26	62-63°F	NO	0.630	$1.92	-$1.94	LOSS	62°F
h2	NYC	2026-09-26	62-63°F	NO	0.630	$4.57	-$4.61	LOSS	62°F
h3	NYC	2026-09-26	62-63°F	NO	0.630	$1.29	-$1.30	LOSS	62°F
baseline	SEA	2026-09-26	64-65°F	NO	0.720	$3.84	-$3.87	LOSS	64°F
h1	SEA	2026-09-26	64-65°F	NO	0.720	$13.28	-$13.37	LOSS	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-09-26	64-65°F	NO	0.720	$9.13	-$9.19	LOSS	64°F
h3	DEN	2026-09-26	82-83°F	NO	0.440	$3.04	-$3.09	LOSS	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-26	82-83°F	NO	0.440	$3.07	-$3.11	LOSS	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-26	84-85°F	NO	0.760	$3.07	$0.95	WIN	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-09-26	86-87°F	NO	0.960	$1.30	$0.05	WIN	82°F
h3	MIA	2026-09-26	88-89°F	NO	0.520	$3.04	$2.77	WIN	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.790	$4.55	$1.19	WIN	76°F
h1	ATL	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.790	$13.45	$3.50	WIN	76°F
h2	ATL	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.790	$9.73	$2.53	WIN	76°F
h3	ATL	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.550	$3.70	-$3.74	LOSS	76°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-25	74-75°F	NO	0.790	$3.51	$0.92	WIN	76°F
h4	ATL	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.550	$3.51	-$3.55	LOSS	76°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-25	68-69°F	NO	0.550	$4.55	$3.67	WIN	64°F
baseline	CHI	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.730	$4.55	$1.65	WIN	64°F
h1	CHI	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.730	$13.45	$4.88	WIN	64°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-25	68-69°F	NO	0.550	$3.70	$2.98	WIN	64°F
h3	CHI	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.730	$3.70	$1.34	WIN	64°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-25	68-69°F	NO	0.550	$3.51	$2.84	WIN	64°F
h4	CHI	2026-09-25	70-71°F	NO	0.730	$3.51	$1.28	WIN	64°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.740	$4.55	-$4.58	LOSS	76°F
baseline	LAX	2026-09-25	78-79°F	NO	0.620	$4.55	$2.74	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.740	$13.45	-$13.54	LOSS	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-25	76-77°F	NO	0.740	$9.73	-$9.79	LOSS	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-09-25	78-79°F	NO	0.620	$9.73	$5.87	WIN	76°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	120/30	yes
CHI	119/30	yes
DAL	119/30	yes
DEN	119/30	yes
LAX	120/30	yes
MIA	116/30	yes
NYC	107/30	yes
SEA	94/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$5,112.91.