Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-313744 decisions14:02:25 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-07-13: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 37 positions {'baseline': 8, 'h1': 5, 'h2': 6, 'h3': 9, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 40, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-07-14T14:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-07-14 14:02:25 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

1901

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$3,537.20

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 1901 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	383	9	269	59%	-0.0866	-0.0917	-0.1311	-$706.43	$8,156
baseline	secondary	FAIL	350	8	239	65%	-0.0899	-0.0944	-0.0091	-$665.62	$7,406
h1	secondary	FAIL	280	5	213	76%	+0.0065	+0.0033	-0.0179	$66.51	$10,310
h2	secondary	FAIL	259	6	194	71%	-0.0642	-0.0695	-0.0222	-$456.10	$7,104
h4	secondary	FAIL	373	9	199	65%	-0.1154	-0.1204	+0.0032	-$795.49	$6,896
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions37 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-07-14	80-81°F	NO	0.600	$9.12	0.301	0.699
baseline	ATL	2026-07-14	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$8.21	0.275	0.725
baseline	CHI	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.860	$10.68	0.042	0.958
baseline	DAL	2026-07-14	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$10.68	0.215	0.785
baseline	DEN	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.830	$10.68	0.063	0.937
baseline	MIA	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.500	$10.68	0.315	0.685
baseline	NYC	2026-07-14	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$10.68	0.035	0.965
baseline	NYC	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.640	$10.68	0.231	0.769
h1	CHI	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.860	$35.04	0.042	0.958
h1	DAL	2026-07-14	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$35.04	0.215	0.785
h1	DEN	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.830	$35.04	0.063	0.937
h1	NYC	2026-07-14	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$35.04	0.035	0.965
h1	NYC	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.640	$35.04	0.231	0.769
h2	ATL	2026-07-14	80-81°F	NO	0.600	$16.91	0.301	0.699
h2	ATL	2026-07-14	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$15.22	0.275	0.725
h2	CHI	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.860	$19.79	0.042	0.958
h2	DEN	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.830	$19.79	0.063	0.937
h2	MIA	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.500	$19.79	0.315	0.685
h2	NYC	2026-07-14	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$19.79	0.035	0.965
h3	ATL	2026-07-14	80-81°F	NO	0.600	$9.41	0.301	0.699
h3	ATL	2026-07-14	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$8.47	0.275	0.725
h3	CHI	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.630	$11.02	0.123	0.877
h3	DAL	2026-07-14	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$11.02	0.215	0.785
h3	DEN	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.490	$11.02	0.204	0.796
h3	LAX	2026-07-14	74-75°F	NO	0.680	$11.02	0.034	0.966
h3	LAX	2026-07-14	76-77°F	NO	0.550	$11.02	0.089	0.911
h3	MIA	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.500	$11.02	0.315	0.685
h3	NYC	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.620	$4.15	0.099	0.901
h4	ATL	2026-07-14	80-81°F	NO	0.600	$6.58	0.301	0.699
h4	CHI	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.860	$7.71	0.042	0.958
h4	CHI	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.630	$7.71	0.123	0.877
h4	DAL	2026-07-14	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$7.71	0.215	0.785
h4	DAL	2026-07-14	92-93°F	NO	0.949	$7.71	0.030	0.970
h4	DEN	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.490	$7.71	0.204	0.796
h4	DEN	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.830	$7.71	0.063	0.937
h4	LAX	2026-07-14	74-75°F	NO	0.680	$7.71	0.034	0.966
h4	LAX	2026-07-14	76-77°F	NO	0.550	$1.12	0.089	0.911

Settlements1901 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$11.15	$5.65	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$37.91	$19.21	WIN	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-13	82-83°F	NO	0.660	$2.04	-$2.06	LOSS	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$11.98	$6.07	WIN	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-13	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$11.15	$2.08	WIN	92°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-13	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$37.91	$7.07	WIN	92°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-13	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$19.56	$3.65	WIN	92°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-13	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$11.98	-$12.10	LOSS	92°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-13	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$1.88	$0.75	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-13	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$8.04	$1.50	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-13	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$8.04	-$8.12	LOSS	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$11.15	$3.08	WIN	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-13	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$9.19	$4.06	WIN	92°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$37.91	$10.49	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$19.56	$5.41	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-13	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$16.11	$7.11	WIN	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-13	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$9.87	$4.36	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$8.04	$2.22	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-13	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$6.62	$2.92	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-13	98-99°F	NO	0.779	$11.15	$3.10	WIN	96°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-13	98-99°F	NO	0.779	$37.91	$10.55	WIN	96°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-13	98-99°F	NO	0.779	$19.56	$5.44	WIN	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-13	96-97°F	NO	0.480	$11.98	-$12.13	LOSS	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-13	96-97°F	NO	0.480	$8.04	-$8.14	LOSS	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-13	98-99°F	NO	0.779	$8.04	$2.24	WIN	96°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-13	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$11.15	$4.69	WIN	74°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-13	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$37.91	$15.96	WIN	74°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-13	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$19.56	$8.23	WIN	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-13	74-75°F	NO	0.620	$11.98	-$12.09	LOSS	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-13	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$11.98	$5.04	WIN	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-13	72-73°F	NO	0.940	$8.04	$0.50	WIN	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-13	74-75°F	NO	0.620	$8.04	-$8.11	LOSS	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-13	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$1.41	$0.60	WIN	74°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-13	94-95°F	NO	0.570	$11.15	$8.29	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-13	94-95°F	NO	0.570	$37.91	$28.19	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-13	94-95°F	NO	0.570	$11.98	$8.91	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-13	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$11.15	$2.08	WIN	84°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-13	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$37.91	$7.07	WIN	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-13	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$19.56	$3.65	WIN	84°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.560	$10.17	-$10.29	LOSS	84°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$11.73	$4.04	WIN	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-12	86-87°F	NO	0.670	$11.73	-$11.82	LOSS	86°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$40.25	$13.88	WIN	86°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-12	86-87°F	NO	0.670	$40.25	-$40.58	LOSS	86°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$22.44	$7.74	WIN	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$13.32	$4.59	WIN	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-12	86-87°F	NO	0.670	$13.32	-$13.43	LOSS	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-12	80-81°F	NO	0.970	$8.51	$0.26	WIN	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$8.51	$2.93	WIN	86°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$11.24	$5.95	WIN	96°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$21.51	$11.40	WIN	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$12.77	$6.76	WIN	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-12	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$13.32	-$13.43	LOSS	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-12	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$8.51	-$8.58	LOSS	96°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-12	72-73°F	NO	0.840	$11.73	$2.19	WIN	74°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-12	76-77°F	NO	0.730	$11.73	$4.26	WIN	74°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-12	72-73°F	NO	0.840	$40.25	$7.50	WIN	74°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-12	76-77°F	NO	0.730	$40.25	$14.61	WIN	74°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-12	72-73°F	NO	0.840	$22.44	$4.18	WIN	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-12	74-75°F	NO	0.480	$13.32	-$13.49	LOSS	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-12	76-77°F	NO	0.730	$13.32	$4.84	WIN	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-12	72-73°F	NO	0.840	$8.51	$1.59	WIN	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-12	74-75°F	NO	0.480	$8.51	-$8.62	LOSS	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-12	76-77°F	NO	0.730	$8.51	$3.09	WIN	74°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$11.73	-$11.82	LOSS	94°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$40.25	-$40.56	LOSS	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-12	92-93°F	NO	0.550	$5.28	$4.26	WIN	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$13.32	-$13.42	LOSS	94°F
h4	MIA	2026-07-12	92-93°F	NO	0.550	$3.37	$2.72	WIN	94°F
h4	MIA	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$5.13	-$5.17	LOSS	94°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-12	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$11.73	$3.44	WIN	84°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$7.82	-$7.90	LOSS	84°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-12	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$40.25	$11.79	WIN	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-12	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$22.44	$6.57	WIN	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$14.97	-$15.11	LOSS	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-12	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$7.15	$3.01	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-12	86-87°F	NO	0.850	$8.51	$1.47	WIN	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$1.25	$0.58	WIN	98°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-11	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$12.17	$2.80	WIN	94°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$12.17	$7.03	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-11	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$36.91	$8.48	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$36.91	$21.34	WIN	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-11	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$19.64	$4.51	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$15.98	$9.24	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-11	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$9.15	$2.10	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$9.15	$5.29	WIN	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-11	80-81°F	NO	0.871	$12.17	$1.76	WIN	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-11	80-81°F	NO	0.871	$36.91	$5.35	WIN	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-11	80-81°F	NO	0.871	$19.64	$2.85	WIN	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-11	82-83°F	NO	0.570	$15.98	-$16.16	LOSS	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-11	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$3.95	$1.74	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-11	80-81°F	NO	0.871	$9.15	$1.33	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-11	82-83°F	NO	0.570	$9.15	-$9.25	LOSS	82°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.740	$12.17	$4.20	WIN	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-11	98-99°F	NO	0.620	$7.78	-$7.85	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.740	$36.91	$12.73	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.740	$15.98	$5.51	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-11	98-99°F	NO	0.620	$10.22	-$10.32	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.740	$9.15	$3.16	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-11	98-99°F	NO	0.620	$5.85	-$5.91	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.560	$12.17	-$12.30	LOSS	96°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.560	$36.91	-$37.32	LOSS	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.560	$15.98	-$16.16	LOSS	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-11	96-97°F	NO	0.560	$9.15	-$9.25	LOSS	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-11	98-99°F	NO	0.880	$9.15	$1.22	WIN	96°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.680	$12.17	-$12.26	LOSS	90°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-11	92-93°F	NO	0.530	$7.28	$6.37	WIN	90°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.680	$36.91	-$37.20	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.680	$15.98	-$16.11	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-11	92-93°F	NO	0.530	$6.15	$5.38	WIN	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-11	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$9.27	-$9.36	LOSS	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-11	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$19.64	-$19.82	LOSS	82°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-11	74-75°F	NO	0.530	$15.98	-$16.17	LOSS	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-11	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$11.65	$4.45	WIN	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-11	74-75°F	NO	0.530	$3.30	-$3.34	LOSS	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.850	$13.42	$2.32	WIN	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$13.42	$4.87	WIN	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-10	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$12.37	-$12.48	LOSS	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.850	$39.10	$6.75	WIN	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$39.10	$14.20	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.850	$20.74	$3.58	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$20.74	$7.53	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-10	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$19.12	-$19.29	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$14.44	$5.24	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-10	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$13.31	-$13.43	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.850	$9.14	$1.58	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$9.14	$3.32	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-10	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$8.42	-$8.50	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-10	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$13.42	$4.63	WIN	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-10	80-81°F	NO	0.630	$6.56	-$6.62	LOSS	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-10	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$39.10	$13.48	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-10	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$14.44	$4.98	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-10	80-81°F	NO	0.630	$7.06	-$7.12	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-10	78-79°F	NO	0.740	$9.14	$3.15	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-10	80-81°F	NO	0.630	$4.47	-$4.51	LOSS	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-10	96-97°F	NO	0.820	$13.42	$2.89	WIN	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-10	98-99°F	NO	0.630	$13.42	-$13.54	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-10	96-97°F	NO	0.820	$39.10	$8.41	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-10	96-97°F	NO	0.820	$20.74	$4.46	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-10	98-99°F	NO	0.630	$20.74	-$20.93	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-10	98-99°F	NO	0.630	$14.44	-$14.57	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-10	96-97°F	NO	0.820	$9.14	$1.96	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-10	98-99°F	NO	0.630	$9.14	-$9.22	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$13.20	$7.31	WIN	90°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.741	$8.13	-$8.19	LOSS	90°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.741	$39.10	-$39.35	LOSS	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$20.40	$11.29	WIN	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.741	$20.74	-$20.87	LOSS	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$14.20	$7.86	WIN	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.741	$14.44	-$14.53	LOSS	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$8.99	$4.97	WIN	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-10	90-91°F	NO	0.741	$5.54	-$5.57	LOSS	90°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-10	86-87°F	NO	0.840	$39.10	$7.29	WIN	88°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-10	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$39.10	-$39.43	LOSS	88°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-10	86-87°F	NO	0.840	$4.40	$0.82	WIN	88°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-10	66-67°F	NO	0.906	$39.10	$3.96	WIN	76°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-10	92-93°F	NO	0.590	$18.30	-$18.49	LOSS	92°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-10	74-75°F	NO	0.620	$14.44	-$14.58	LOSS	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-10	76-77°F	NO	0.613	$8.75	$5.44	WIN	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$12.29	$3.01	WIN	94°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-09	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$12.29	$9.52	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$34.00	$8.33	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-09	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$34.00	$26.34	WIN	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$18.23	$4.47	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-09	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$16.03	$12.42	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-09	88-89°F	NO	0.950	$9.47	$0.49	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$9.47	$2.32	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-09	92-93°F	NO	0.560	$9.47	$7.34	WIN	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-09	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$12.29	$1.49	WIN	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-09	82-83°F	NO	0.760	$12.29	$3.81	WIN	86°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-09	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$34.00	$4.11	WIN	86°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-09	82-83°F	NO	0.760	$34.00	$10.53	WIN	86°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-09	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$18.23	$2.20	WIN	86°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-09	82-83°F	NO	0.760	$18.23	$5.65	WIN	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-09	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$9.47	$1.14	WIN	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-09	82-83°F	NO	0.760	$9.47	$2.93	WIN	86°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-09	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$12.29	$3.40	WIN	100°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-09	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$12.29	-$12.40	LOSS	100°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-09	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$34.00	$9.40	WIN	100°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-09	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$18.23	$5.04	WIN	100°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-09	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$18.23	-$18.40	LOSS	100°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-09	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$16.03	-$16.17	LOSS	100°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-09	98-99°F	NO	0.780	$9.47	$2.62	WIN	100°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-09	100-101°F	NO	0.640	$9.47	-$9.55	LOSS	100°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.720	$12.16	-$12.25	LOSS	90°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.720	$33.64	-$33.88	LOSS	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.720	$15.86	-$15.97	LOSS	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-09	90-91°F	NO	0.720	$9.37	-$9.43	LOSS	90°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-09	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$12.29	-$12.36	LOSS	74°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-09	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$34.00	-$34.19	LOSS	74°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-09	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$18.23	-$18.33	LOSS	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-09	76-77°F	NO	0.550	$16.03	$12.93	WIN	74°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-09	72-73°F	NO	0.830	$34.00	$6.82	WIN	78°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-09	72-73°F	NO	0.830	$18.23	$3.66	WIN	78°F
h3	SEA	2026-07-09	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$16.03	$9.26	WIN	78°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-09	84-85°F	NO	0.560	$18.23	$14.13	WIN	86°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-09	84-85°F	NO	0.560	$16.03	$12.42	WIN	86°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-09	92-93°F	NO	0.440	$15.65	$19.69	WIN	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-08	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$13.63	$2.54	WIN	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-08	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$42.42	$7.91	WIN	92°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	42/30	yes
CHI	41/30	yes
DAL	41/30	yes
DEN	42/30	yes
LAX	42/30	yes
MIA	42/30	yes
NYC	41/30	yes
SEA	32/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$3,537.20.