Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-311194 decisions20:02:21 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-06-13: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 54 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 9, 'h2': 4, 'h3': 10, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 13}
settle▸ [settle] settled 52, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-06-14T20:00:01Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-06-14 20:02:21 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

586

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$1,981.73

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 586 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	109	10	78	61%	-0.0603	-0.0725	-0.1072	-$181.12	$3,004
baseline	secondary	FAIL	98	9	71	62%	-0.0923	-0.1036	-0.0171	-$278.71	$3,018
h1	secondary	FAIL	76	9	62	70%	-0.0551	-0.0661	-0.0427	-$161.21	$2,928
h2	secondary	FAIL	66	4	52	70%	-0.0596	-0.0728	-0.0610	-$141.63	$2,377
h4	secondary	FAIL	117	9	68	63%	-0.1065	-0.1178	+0.1251	-$325.22	$3,055
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	120	13	70	8%	-0.6661	-0.8167	-0.0940	-$893.83	$1,342

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions54 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$21.30	0.219	0.781
baseline	ATL	2026-06-14	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$20.16	0.321	0.679
baseline	CHI	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$24.59	0.190	0.810
baseline	DAL	2026-06-14	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$24.59	0.023	0.977
baseline	DAL	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$24.59	0.067	0.933
baseline	DAL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$24.59	0.178	0.822
baseline	LAX	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$24.59	0.089	0.911
baseline	MIA	2026-06-14	90-91°F	NO	0.470	$24.37	0.409	0.591
baseline	NYC	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$7.94	0.102	0.898
h1	ATL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$24.68	0.219	0.781
h1	CHI	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$28.49	0.190	0.810
h1	DAL	2026-06-14	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$28.49	0.023	0.977
h1	DAL	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$28.49	0.067	0.933
h1	DAL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$28.49	0.178	0.822
h1	LAX	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$28.49	0.089	0.911
h1	NYC	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$28.49	0.102	0.898
h1	NYC	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.630	$28.49	0.235	0.765
h1	SEA	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$3.81	0.239	0.761
h2	DAL	2026-06-14	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$29.96	0.023	0.977
h2	DAL	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$29.96	0.067	0.933
h2	LAX	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$29.96	0.089	0.911
h2	NYC	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$29.96	0.102	0.898
h3	ATL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$25.49	0.219	0.781
h3	ATL	2026-06-14	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$24.12	0.321	0.679
h3	CHI	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$29.42	0.190	0.810
h3	DAL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$29.42	0.178	0.822
h3	LAX	2026-06-14	72-73°F	NO	0.570	$29.42	0.197	0.803
h3	LAX	2026-06-14	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$8.27	0.278	0.722
h3	MIA	2026-06-14	90-91°F	NO	0.470	$29.16	0.409	0.591
h3	MIA	2026-06-14	92-93°F	NO	0.730	$18.74	0.231	0.769
h3	NYC	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$29.42	0.102	0.898
h3	NYC	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.630	$11.89	0.235	0.765
h4	ATL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$20.64	0.219	0.781
h4	ATL	2026-06-14	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$19.53	0.321	0.679
h4	CHI	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$23.82	0.190	0.810
h4	DAL	2026-06-14	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$23.82	0.023	0.977
h4	DAL	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$23.82	0.067	0.933
h4	DAL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$23.82	0.178	0.822
h4	DEN	2026-06-14	65°F or below	NO	0.940	$23.82	0.026	0.974
h4	DEN	2026-06-14	78-79°F	NO	0.989	$23.82	0.008	0.992
h4	LAX	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$7.48	0.089	0.911
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-14	74-75°F	YES	0.150	$2.15	0.233	0.233
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-14	90-91°F	YES	0.230	$1.23	0.304	0.304
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-14	92-93°F	YES	0.119	$3.16	0.243	0.243
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-14	94-95°F	YES	0.036	$1.60	0.104	0.104
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-14	70-71°F	YES	0.270	$1.85	0.356	0.356
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-14	72-73°F	YES	0.184	$1.77	0.251	0.251
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-14	76-77°F	YES	0.070	$3.37	0.208	0.208
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-14	78-79°F	YES	0.020	$1.79	0.097	0.097
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-14	88-89°F	YES	0.120	$2.13	0.204	0.204
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-14	90-91°F	YES	0.190	$2.10	0.301	0.301
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-14	92-93°F	YES	0.020	$3.83	0.185	0.185
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-14	94-95°F	YES	0.004	$1.56	0.072	0.072
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-14	84-85°F	YES	0.110	$2.22	0.199	0.199

Settlements586 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-06-13	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$27.40	$10.99	WIN	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-13	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$26.61	-$26.91	LOSS	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-13	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$34.27	$13.75	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-13	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$26.42	$10.60	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-13	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$25.65	-$25.94	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-13	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$23.56	$9.45	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-13	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$22.87	-$23.14	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.810	$27.40	-$27.53	LOSS	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-13	84-85°F	NO	0.610	$27.40	$17.25	WIN	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.810	$34.27	-$34.43	LOSS	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.810	$33.03	-$33.19	LOSS	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-13	84-85°F	NO	0.610	$33.03	$20.80	WIN	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-13	84-85°F	NO	0.610	$26.42	$16.63	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-13	80-81°F	NO	0.940	$23.56	$1.47	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.810	$23.56	-$23.67	LOSS	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-13	84-85°F	NO	0.610	$23.56	$14.83	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-13	88-89°F	YES	0.080	$3.01	-$3.08	LOSS	82°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-13	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$27.40	$14.52	WIN	90°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-13	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$34.27	$18.15	WIN	90°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-13	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$9.21	$4.67	WIN	90°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-13	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$26.42	$13.99	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-13	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$8.22	$4.16	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-13	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$23.56	$12.48	WIN	90°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-13	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$27.40	$10.47	WIN	78°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$27.40	$4.01	WIN	78°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-13	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$34.27	$13.09	WIN	78°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$34.27	$5.01	WIN	78°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$33.03	$4.83	WIN	78°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-13	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$26.42	$10.09	WIN	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-13	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$23.56	$9.00	WIN	78°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-13	76-77°F	YES	0.130	$4.00	-$4.09	LOSS	78°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-13	78-79°F	YES	0.260	$3.82	$10.79	WIN	78°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-13	70-71°F	NO	0.800	$27.40	$6.71	WIN	72°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-13	70-71°F	NO	0.800	$34.27	$8.40	WIN	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-13	70-71°F	NO	0.800	$33.03	$8.09	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-13	72-73°F	NO	0.510	$26.42	-$26.74	LOSS	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-13	70-71°F	NO	0.800	$16.03	$3.93	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-13	74-75°F	YES	0.170	$2.41	-$2.46	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-13	76-77°F	YES	0.080	$2.71	-$2.77	LOSS	72°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-13	86-87°F	NO	0.900	$34.27	$3.72	WIN	88°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-13	86-87°F	NO	0.900	$33.03	$3.59	WIN	88°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-13	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$33.03	$19.10	WIN	88°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-13	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$17.97	-$18.12	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-13	92-93°F	YES	0.121	$5.74	-$5.87	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-13	94-95°F	YES	0.019	$4.16	-$4.26	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-13	96-97°F	YES	0.004	$1.61	-$1.65	LOSS	88°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.740	$34.27	-$34.49	LOSS	82°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.740	$33.03	-$33.25	LOSS	82°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-13	84-85°F	NO	0.900	$33.03	$3.59	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-13	78-79°F	YES	0.150	$4.76	-$4.86	LOSS	82°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-13	88-89°F	NO	0.450	$26.42	$31.92	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-13	92-93°F	YES	0.034	$3.77	-$3.86	LOSS	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$25.20	-$25.34	LOSS	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$35.48	-$35.68	LOSS	90°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$31.95	-$32.13	LOSS	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.600	$26.29	$17.27	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$23.21	-$23.34	LOSS	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.600	$23.21	$15.24	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-12	98-99°F	YES	0.010	$3.45	-$3.54	LOSS	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-12	80-81°F	NO	0.650	$13.85	-$13.98	LOSS	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-12	80-81°F	NO	0.650	$14.46	-$14.58	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-12	80-81°F	NO	0.650	$12.76	-$12.87	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-12	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$12.96	$3.58	WIN	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$25.20	$11.13	WIN	88°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$35.48	$15.67	WIN	88°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$7.33	$3.55	WIN	88°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$26.29	$11.61	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$6.47	$3.13	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$23.21	$10.25	WIN	88°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.590	$25.20	$17.25	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$25.20	-$25.29	LOSS	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.590	$35.48	$24.30	WIN	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$35.48	-$35.61	LOSS	92°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$31.95	-$32.06	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.590	$26.29	$18.00	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.590	$23.21	$15.89	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-12	86-87°F	YES	0.120	$2.95	-$3.01	LOSS	92°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-12	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$25.20	-$25.29	LOSS	72°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-12	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$25.20	$10.61	WIN	72°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-12	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$35.48	-$35.62	LOSS	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-12	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$31.95	-$32.07	LOSS	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-12	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$31.95	$13.45	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-12	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$26.29	$15.20	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-12	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$26.29	$11.07	WIN	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-12	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$23.21	-$23.30	LOSS	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-12	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$23.21	$13.42	WIN	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-12	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$14.23	$5.99	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-12	78-79°F	YES	0.071	$5.68	-$5.82	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-12	80-81°F	YES	0.031	$5.95	-$6.09	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-12	82-83°F	YES	0.005	$3.01	-$3.09	LOSS	72°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-12	88-89°F	NO	0.520	$25.20	$22.96	WIN	90°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-12	88-89°F	NO	0.520	$31.95	$29.11	WIN	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-12	88-89°F	NO	0.520	$26.29	$23.95	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-12	92-93°F	YES	0.028	$4.82	-$4.94	LOSS	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-12	94-95°F	NO	0.630	$11.35	-$11.45	LOSS	94°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-12	94-95°F	NO	0.630	$35.48	-$35.81	LOSS	94°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.730	$35.48	$12.89	WIN	94°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.730	$31.95	$11.60	WIN	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-12	94-95°F	NO	0.630	$26.29	-$26.54	LOSS	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.730	$4.51	$1.64	WIN	94°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-12	98-99°F	YES	0.052	$6.51	-$6.66	LOSS	94°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-12	100°F or higher	YES	0.010	$5.19	-$5.32	LOSS	94°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-12	96-97°F	YES	0.240	$2.71	-$2.76	LOSS	94°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-12	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$31.95	$20.98	WIN	74°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-12	68-69°F	YES	0.040	$4.46	-$4.56	LOSS	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$29.83	$23.11	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$36.11	$27.97	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$26.06	$20.19	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$23.55	$18.25	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-11	76-77°F	NO	0.680	$29.83	$13.80	WIN	78°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-11	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$29.83	$2.53	WIN	78°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-11	76-77°F	NO	0.680	$43.90	$20.31	WIN	78°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-11	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$43.90	$3.73	WIN	78°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-11	76-77°F	NO	0.680	$36.11	$16.70	WIN	78°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-11	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$36.11	$3.07	WIN	78°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-11	76-77°F	NO	0.680	$26.06	$12.05	WIN	78°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-11	78-79°F	NO	0.750	$26.06	-$26.22	LOSS	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-11	76-77°F	NO	0.680	$23.55	$10.89	WIN	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-11	78-79°F	NO	0.750	$23.55	-$23.70	LOSS	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-11	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$23.55	$2.00	WIN	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-11	82-83°F	NO	0.980	$23.55	$0.47	WIN	78°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-11	70-71°F	YES	0.018	$3.08	-$3.16	LOSS	78°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-11	74-75°F	YES	0.180	$4.66	-$4.76	LOSS	78°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-11	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$29.83	$13.17	WIN	88°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-11	88-89°F	NO	0.540	$10.95	-$11.08	LOSS	88°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-11	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$43.90	$19.38	WIN	88°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-11	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$26.06	$11.51	WIN	88°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-11	88-89°F	NO	0.540	$9.57	-$9.68	LOSS	88°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-11	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$23.55	$10.40	WIN	88°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-11	90-91°F	YES	0.140	$5.69	-$5.81	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-11	92-93°F	YES	0.016	$2.25	-$2.30	LOSS	88°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.880	$29.83	$3.98	WIN	94°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-11	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$29.83	-$30.06	LOSS	94°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.880	$43.90	$5.85	WIN	94°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-11	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$43.90	-$44.24	LOSS	94°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.880	$36.11	$4.82	WIN	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-11	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$26.06	$12.62	WIN	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-11	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$6.09	-$6.13	LOSS	94°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-11	100-101°F	YES	0.015	$3.05	-$3.12	LOSS	94°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-11	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$25.52	$14.75	WIN	72°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-11	72-73°F	NO	0.730	$23.18	-$23.34	LOSS	72°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-11	72-73°F	NO	0.730	$43.90	-$44.19	LOSS	72°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-11	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$30.89	$17.86	WIN	72°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-11	72-73°F	NO	0.730	$36.11	-$36.35	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-11	66-67°F	YES	0.069	$2.90	-$2.97	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-11	68-69°F	YES	0.180	$6.01	-$6.13	LOSS	72°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-11	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$10.41	$5.51	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-11	90-91°F	YES	0.041	$2.14	-$2.19	LOSS	92°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-11	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$26.06	$10.97	WIN	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-11	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$26.06	-$26.30	LOSS	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-11	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$23.55	$9.92	WIN	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-11	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$23.55	-$23.77	LOSS	74°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-11	78-79°F	YES	0.100	$5.43	-$5.55	LOSS	74°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-11	82-83°F	YES	0.002	$4.70	-$4.82	LOSS	74°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-11	88-89°F	YES	0.190	$2.63	-$2.69	LOSS	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-10	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$19.68	-$19.88	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-10	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$22.44	-$22.67	LOSS	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-10	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$28.29	$16.35	WIN	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-10	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$33.37	$19.29	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-10	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$32.26	$18.65	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-10	90-91°F	NO	0.830	$27.84	-$27.96	LOSS	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-10	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$27.84	$16.09	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-10	94-95°F	YES	0.237	$3.13	-$3.19	LOSS	90°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-10	96°F or higher	YES	0.090	$8.13	-$8.32	LOSS	90°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-10	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$21.05	$10.20	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-10	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$24.83	$12.02	WIN	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-10	92-93°F	NO	0.690	$9.69	-$9.76	LOSS	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-10	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$24.01	$11.63	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-10	90-91°F	NO	0.750	$28.29	$9.25	WIN	86°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-10	90-91°F	NO	0.750	$38.31	$12.53	WIN	86°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-10	90-91°F	NO	0.750	$32.26	$10.55	WIN	86°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-10	90-91°F	NO	0.750	$27.84	$9.11	WIN	86°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-10	92-93°F	NO	0.920	$27.84	$2.37	WIN	86°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-10	86-87°F	YES	0.160	$4.99	$26.07	WIN	86°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-10	76-77°F	NO	0.840	$28.29	$5.28	WIN	75°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-10	76-77°F	NO	0.840	$38.31	$7.14	WIN	75°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-10	76-77°F	NO	0.840	$33.37	$6.22	WIN	75°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-10	75°F or below	NO	0.230	$32.26	-$32.89	LOSS	75°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-10	75°F or below	NO	0.230	$27.84	-$28.38	LOSS	75°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-10	76-77°F	NO	0.840	$27.84	$5.19	WIN	75°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-10	78-79°F	YES	0.070	$8.31	-$8.50	LOSS	75°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-10	82-83°F	YES	0.005	$9.79	-$10.04	LOSS	75°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-10	84-85°F	YES	0.002	$4.34	-$4.45	LOSS	75°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-10	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$32.26	-$32.59	LOSS	86°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-10	88-89°F	NO	0.550	$12.03	$9.71	WIN	86°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-10	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$27.84	-$28.12	LOSS	86°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-10	88-89°F	NO	0.550	$10.38	$8.38	WIN	86°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-10	90-91°F	YES	0.096	$8.71	-$8.90	LOSS	86°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-10	92-93°F	YES	0.004	$3.25	-$3.34	LOSS	86°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-10	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$32.26	$17.86	WIN	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-10	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$9.03	$3.45	WIN	82°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-10	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$17.46	$1.69	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-10	82-83°F	YES	0.160	$6.14	$32.08	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-10	84-85°F	YES	0.048	$6.13	-$6.28	LOSS	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-09	82-83°F	NO	0.590	$15.34	-$15.50	LOSS	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-09	82-83°F	NO	0.590	$19.03	-$19.22	LOSS	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-09	82-83°F	NO	0.590	$14.94	-$15.09	LOSS	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-09	82-83°F	NO	0.590	$14.19	-$14.34	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-09	86-87°F	YES	0.048	$2.83	-$2.90	LOSS	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-09	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$29.44	$7.67	WIN	86°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	13/30	no
CHI	12/30	no
DAL	13/30	no
DEN	13/30	no
LAX	13/30	no
MIA	13/30	no
NYC	12/30	no
SEA	9/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$1,981.73.