Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-314184 decisions14:02:23 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-07-18: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 46 positions {'baseline': 10, 'h1': 8, 'h2': 9, 'h3': 10, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 42, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-07-19T14:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-07-19 14:02:23 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

2094

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$3,659.45

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 2094 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	428	10	300	59%	-0.0853	-0.0901	-0.1417	-$730.00	$8,563
baseline	secondary	FAIL	391	10	268	66%	-0.0856	-0.0899	-0.0152	-$673.31	$7,863
h1	secondary	FAIL	313	8	239	75%	+0.0007	-0.0022	-0.0278	$7.55	$11,543
h2	secondary	FAIL	290	9	218	71%	-0.0621	-0.0669	-0.0335	-$479.01	$7,718
h4	secondary	FAIL	416	9	220	65%	-0.1118	-0.1167	-0.0081	-$804.61	$7,194
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions46 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-07-19	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$7.19	0.317	0.683
baseline	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$12.10	0.185	0.815
baseline	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$12.10	0.156	0.844
baseline	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$9.70	0.298	0.702
baseline	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$12.10	0.118	0.882
baseline	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$12.10	0.261	0.739
baseline	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$6.12	0.344	0.656
baseline	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$12.10	0.028	0.972
baseline	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$12.10	0.171	0.829
baseline	MIA	2026-07-19	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$1.20	0.181	0.819
h1	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$32.06	0.185	0.815
h1	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$32.06	0.156	0.844
h1	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$32.06	0.118	0.882
h1	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$32.06	0.028	0.972
h1	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$32.06	0.171	0.829
h1	MIA	2026-07-19	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$32.06	0.181	0.819
h1	NYC	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$32.06	0.156	0.844
h1	SEA	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$32.06	0.097	0.903
h2	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$19.77	0.156	0.844
h2	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$15.85	0.298	0.702
h2	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$19.77	0.118	0.882
h2	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$19.77	0.261	0.739
h2	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$9.99	0.344	0.656
h2	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$19.77	0.028	0.972
h2	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$19.77	0.171	0.829
h2	NYC	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$19.77	0.156	0.844
h2	NYC	2026-07-19	82-83°F	NO	0.610	$13.71	0.288	0.712
h3	ATL	2026-07-19	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$6.36	0.317	0.683
h3	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$10.70	0.185	0.815
h3	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$8.58	0.298	0.702
h3	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$10.70	0.118	0.882
h3	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$10.70	0.261	0.739
h3	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$5.41	0.344	0.656
h3	DEN	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.600	$10.70	0.156	0.844
h3	LAX	2026-07-19	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$10.70	0.073	0.927
h3	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$10.70	0.171	0.829
h3	MIA	2026-07-19	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$1.06	0.181	0.819
h4	ATL	2026-07-19	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$4.29	0.317	0.683
h4	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$7.22	0.185	0.815
h4	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$7.22	0.156	0.844
h4	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$5.79	0.298	0.702
h4	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$7.22	0.118	0.882
h4	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$7.22	0.261	0.739
h4	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$3.65	0.344	0.656
h4	DEN	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.600	$7.22	0.156	0.844
h4	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$7.22	0.028	0.972

Settlements2094 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.590	$9.36	-$9.45	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.720	$6.59	$2.52	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.590	$7.39	-$7.47	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.590	$5.39	-$5.44	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$12.95	$2.98	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$11.93	-$12.01	LOSS	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$40.44	$9.29	WIN	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$37.26	-$37.53	LOSS	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$20.85	$4.79	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-18	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$10.23	$5.66	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$9.42	-$9.49	LOSS	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	82-83°F	NO	0.991	$7.46	$0.07	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	84-85°F	NO	0.970	$7.46	$0.23	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$7.46	$1.71	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$7.46	$4.13	WIN	90°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$12.95	$5.72	WIN	96°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$10.39	-$10.49	LOSS	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$40.44	$17.86	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$10.23	$4.52	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$8.21	-$8.29	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$7.46	$3.29	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$5.98	-$6.04	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$12.95	$1.93	WIN	94°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$40.44	$6.02	WIN	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$20.85	$3.10	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.430	$10.23	-$10.38	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.430	$7.46	-$7.56	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$3.54	$0.53	WIN	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-18	74-75°F	NO	0.850	$12.95	$2.24	WIN	78°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-18	74-75°F	NO	0.850	$40.44	$6.99	WIN	78°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-18	74-75°F	NO	0.850	$20.85	$3.60	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-18	76-77°F	NO	0.640	$10.23	$5.66	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-18	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$9.30	-$9.38	LOSS	78°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.530	$7.66	-$7.75	LOSS	90°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$12.46	$7.20	WIN	90°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$40.44	$23.38	WIN	90°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-18	77°F or below	NO	0.850	$40.44	$6.99	WIN	80°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-18	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$40.44	$11.18	WIN	80°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-18	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$3.19	-$3.21	LOSS	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-18	77°F or below	NO	0.850	$20.85	$3.60	WIN	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-18	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$20.85	$5.76	WIN	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-18	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$20.85	-$21.00	LOSS	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$11.86	-$11.92	LOSS	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$11.86	$7.79	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$32.51	-$32.68	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$17.74	-$17.83	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$17.74	$11.65	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$9.83	$6.46	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$7.65	-$7.69	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$7.65	$5.02	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$11.86	$1.58	WIN	92°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$32.51	$4.34	WIN	92°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$17.74	$2.37	WIN	92°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.670	$9.83	$4.76	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$7.65	$1.02	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$7.65	$2.24	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.670	$7.65	$3.71	WIN	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$11.86	-$11.92	LOSS	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$32.51	-$32.69	LOSS	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$17.74	-$17.84	LOSS	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$9.83	$6.19	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$7.65	$4.82	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$7.65	-$7.69	LOSS	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-17	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$11.86	$1.15	WIN	86°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-17	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$32.51	$3.14	WIN	86°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-17	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$17.74	$1.71	WIN	86°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-17	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$9.83	$5.44	WIN	86°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-17	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$9.83	$5.93	WIN	86°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.560	$5.64	$4.37	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.560	$8.43	$6.53	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$9.83	-$9.92	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-17	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$11.86	$1.43	WIN	86°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.670	$11.86	$5.74	WIN	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-17	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$32.51	$3.93	WIN	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.670	$32.51	$15.75	WIN	86°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-17	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$17.74	$2.14	WIN	86°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$9.83	-$9.94	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$9.83	$3.75	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$7.65	-$7.74	LOSS	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$12.85	$9.56	WIN	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$12.85	-$12.91	LOSS	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$45.14	-$45.37	LOSS	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$22.13	$16.46	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$22.13	-$22.25	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$9.51	$7.07	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$7.28	$5.41	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$7.28	-$7.31	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$12.85	$3.55	WIN	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$45.14	$12.48	WIN	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$22.13	$6.12	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.740	$9.51	-$9.57	LOSS	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$9.51	$4.40	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$7.28	$2.01	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.740	$7.28	-$7.32	LOSS	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$7.28	$3.37	WIN	90°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$12.85	$3.55	WIN	88°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$45.14	$12.48	WIN	88°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$22.13	$6.12	WIN	88°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-16	88-89°F	NO	0.670	$2.39	-$2.41	LOSS	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$7.28	$2.01	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.895	$7.28	$0.83	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.970	$7.28	$0.22	WIN	88°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-16	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$12.85	$2.95	WIN	82°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-16	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$12.85	-$12.92	LOSS	82°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-16	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$45.14	$10.37	WIN	82°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-16	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$45.14	-$45.39	LOSS	82°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-16	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$22.13	$5.09	WIN	82°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-16	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$22.13	-$22.26	LOSS	82°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-16	80-81°F	NO	0.590	$9.51	$6.51	WIN	82°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$10.38	$4.80	WIN	96°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.510	$7.59	$7.20	WIN	96°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$36.46	$16.87	WIN	96°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$7.68	$3.55	WIN	96°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.510	$5.61	$5.32	WIN	96°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$7.73	$1.66	WIN	88°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$45.14	$9.71	WIN	88°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$45.14	$18.11	WIN	88°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$22.13	$4.76	WIN	88°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$9.51	$4.00	WIN	88°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$3.33	$1.34	WIN	88°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-16	66-67°F	NO	0.800	$8.68	$2.13	WIN	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-16	66-67°F	NO	0.800	$22.13	$5.42	WIN	64°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.510	$9.51	-$9.62	LOSS	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-15	84-85°F	NO	0.820	$12.62	$2.71	WIN	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-15	86-87°F	NO	0.590	$12.62	$8.64	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-15	84-85°F	NO	0.820	$44.52	$9.57	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-15	84-85°F	NO	0.820	$21.59	$4.64	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-15	86-87°F	NO	0.590	$21.59	$14.78	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-15	86-87°F	NO	0.590	$10.23	$7.00	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-15	84-85°F	NO	0.820	$7.12	$1.53	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-15	86-87°F	NO	0.590	$7.12	$4.87	WIN	88°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-15	88-89°F	NO	0.610	$9.70	$6.11	WIN	90°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-15	88-89°F	NO	0.610	$7.86	$4.95	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-15	88-89°F	NO	0.610	$5.47	$3.45	WIN	90°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$12.62	-$12.70	LOSS	94°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$44.52	-$44.81	LOSS	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$21.59	-$21.73	LOSS	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-15	92-93°F	NO	0.490	$10.23	$10.51	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$10.23	-$10.29	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-15	92-93°F	NO	0.490	$7.12	$7.32	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$7.12	-$7.17	LOSS	94°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-15	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$12.62	-$12.73	LOSS	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$7.82	$7.12	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-15	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$44.52	-$44.89	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-15	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$2.37	-$2.39	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-15	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$12.62	$3.29	WIN	98°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-15	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$44.52	$11.60	WIN	98°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-15	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$21.59	$5.63	WIN	98°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$10.23	-$10.30	LOSS	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-15	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$10.23	$7.00	WIN	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$7.12	-$7.17	LOSS	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-15	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$7.12	$4.87	WIN	94°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-15	78-79°F	NO	0.690	$10.23	$4.52	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-15	80-81°F	NO	0.590	$10.23	-$10.33	LOSS	80°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-15	76-77°F	NO	0.970	$7.12	$0.21	WIN	80°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-15	78-79°F	NO	0.690	$1.65	$0.73	WIN	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-14	80-81°F	NO	0.600	$9.12	$5.99	WIN	84°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-14	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$8.21	$3.98	WIN	84°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-14	80-81°F	NO	0.600	$16.91	$11.10	WIN	84°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-14	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$15.22	$7.37	WIN	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-14	80-81°F	NO	0.600	$9.41	$6.18	WIN	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-14	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$8.47	$4.10	WIN	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-14	80-81°F	NO	0.600	$6.58	$4.32	WIN	84°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.860	$10.68	$1.70	WIN	96°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.860	$35.04	$5.58	WIN	96°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.860	$19.79	$3.15	WIN	96°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.630	$11.02	-$11.12	LOSS	96°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.860	$7.71	$1.23	WIN	96°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.630	$7.71	-$7.78	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-14	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$10.68	$5.66	WIN	90°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-14	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$35.04	$18.56	WIN	90°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-14	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$11.02	$5.84	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-14	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$7.71	$4.08	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-14	92-93°F	NO	0.949	$7.71	$0.40	WIN	90°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.830	$10.68	$2.14	WIN	94°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.830	$35.04	$7.03	WIN	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.830	$19.79	$3.97	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.490	$11.02	-$11.16	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.490	$7.71	-$7.81	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.830	$7.71	$1.55	WIN	94°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.500	$10.68	-$10.81	LOSS	94°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.500	$19.79	-$20.04	LOSS	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.500	$11.02	-$11.16	LOSS	94°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-14	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$10.68	-$10.70	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.640	$10.68	$5.91	WIN	92°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-14	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$35.04	-$35.13	LOSS	92°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.640	$35.04	$19.40	WIN	92°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-14	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$19.79	-$19.84	LOSS	92°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.620	$4.15	$2.51	WIN	92°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-14	74-75°F	NO	0.680	$11.02	$5.10	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-14	76-77°F	NO	0.550	$11.02	-$11.14	LOSS	76°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-14	74-75°F	NO	0.680	$7.71	$3.57	WIN	76°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-14	76-77°F	NO	0.550	$1.12	-$1.14	LOSS	76°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$11.15	$5.65	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$37.91	$19.21	WIN	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-13	82-83°F	NO	0.660	$2.04	-$2.06	LOSS	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$11.98	$6.07	WIN	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-13	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$11.15	$2.08	WIN	92°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-13	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$37.91	$7.07	WIN	92°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-13	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$19.56	$3.65	WIN	92°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	47/30	yes
CHI	46/30	yes
DAL	46/30	yes
DEN	47/30	yes
LAX	47/30	yes
MIA	47/30	yes
NYC	46/30	yes
SEA	33/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$3,659.45.