Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-311106 decisions14:03:25 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-06-12: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 52 positions {'baseline': 8, 'h1': 8, 'h2': 8, 'h3': 9, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 10}
settle▸ [settle] settled 53, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-06-13T14:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-06-13 14:03:25 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

534

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$1,981.46

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 534 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	100	9	71	61%	-0.0710	-0.0843	-0.1103	-$198.22	$2,793
baseline	secondary	FAIL	90	8	66	61%	-0.1029	-0.1152	-0.0265	-$288.21	$2,800
h1	secondary	FAIL	68	8	55	69%	-0.0582	-0.0704	-0.0376	-$154.40	$2,654
h2	secondary	FAIL	58	8	47	69%	-0.0640	-0.0790	-0.0579	-$135.18	$2,113
h4	secondary	FAIL	108	9	63	62%	-0.1164	-0.1287	+0.1255	-$333.74	$2,866
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	110	10	64	8%	-0.6676	-0.8224	-0.1190	-$871.71	$1,306

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions52 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-06-13	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$27.40	0.226	0.774
baseline	ATL	2026-06-13	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$26.61	0.332	0.668
baseline	CHI	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.810	$27.40	0.111	0.889
baseline	CHI	2026-06-13	84-85°F	NO	0.610	$27.40	0.255	0.745
baseline	DAL	2026-06-13	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$27.40	0.240	0.760
baseline	DEN	2026-06-13	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$27.40	0.195	0.805
baseline	DEN	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$27.40	0.058	0.942
baseline	LAX	2026-06-13	70-71°F	NO	0.800	$27.40	0.129	0.871
h1	ATL	2026-06-13	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$34.27	0.226	0.774
h1	CHI	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.810	$34.27	0.111	0.889
h1	DAL	2026-06-13	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$34.27	0.240	0.760
h1	DEN	2026-06-13	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$34.27	0.195	0.805
h1	DEN	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$34.27	0.058	0.942
h1	LAX	2026-06-13	70-71°F	NO	0.800	$34.27	0.129	0.871
h1	NYC	2026-06-13	86-87°F	NO	0.900	$34.27	0.049	0.951
h1	SEA	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.740	$34.27	0.161	0.839
h2	CHI	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.810	$33.03	0.111	0.889
h2	CHI	2026-06-13	84-85°F	NO	0.610	$33.03	0.255	0.745
h2	DEN	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$33.03	0.058	0.942
h2	LAX	2026-06-13	70-71°F	NO	0.800	$33.03	0.129	0.871
h2	NYC	2026-06-13	86-87°F	NO	0.900	$33.03	0.049	0.951
h2	NYC	2026-06-13	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$33.03	0.270	0.730
h2	SEA	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.740	$33.03	0.161	0.839
h2	SEA	2026-06-13	84-85°F	NO	0.900	$33.03	0.044	0.956
h3	ATL	2026-06-13	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$26.42	0.226	0.774
h3	ATL	2026-06-13	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$25.65	0.332	0.668
h3	CHI	2026-06-13	84-85°F	NO	0.610	$26.42	0.255	0.745
h3	DAL	2026-06-13	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$9.21	0.293	0.707
h3	DAL	2026-06-13	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$26.42	0.240	0.760
h3	DEN	2026-06-13	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$26.42	0.195	0.805
h3	LAX	2026-06-13	72-73°F	NO	0.510	$26.42	0.234	0.766
h3	MIA	2026-06-13	88-89°F	NO	0.450	$26.42	0.297	0.703
h3	NYC	2026-06-13	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$17.97	0.133	0.867
h4	ATL	2026-06-13	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$23.56	0.226	0.774
h4	ATL	2026-06-13	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$22.87	0.332	0.668
h4	CHI	2026-06-13	80-81°F	NO	0.940	$23.56	0.038	0.962
h4	CHI	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.810	$23.56	0.111	0.889
h4	CHI	2026-06-13	84-85°F	NO	0.610	$23.56	0.255	0.745
h4	DAL	2026-06-13	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$8.22	0.293	0.707
h4	DAL	2026-06-13	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$23.56	0.240	0.760
h4	DEN	2026-06-13	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$23.56	0.195	0.805
h4	LAX	2026-06-13	70-71°F	NO	0.800	$16.03	0.129	0.871
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-13	88-89°F	YES	0.080	$3.01	0.168	0.168
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-13	76-77°F	YES	0.130	$4.00	0.241	0.241
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-13	78-79°F	YES	0.260	$3.82	0.367	0.367
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-13	74-75°F	YES	0.170	$2.41	0.255	0.255
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-13	76-77°F	YES	0.080	$2.71	0.159	0.159
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-13	92-93°F	YES	0.034	$3.77	0.148	0.148
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-13	92-93°F	YES	0.121	$5.74	0.282	0.282
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-13	94-95°F	YES	0.019	$4.16	0.147	0.147
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-13	96-97°F	YES	0.004	$1.61	0.054	0.054
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-13	78-79°F	YES	0.150	$4.76	0.279	0.279

Settlements534 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$25.20	-$25.34	LOSS	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$35.48	-$35.68	LOSS	90°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$31.95	-$32.13	LOSS	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.600	$26.29	$17.27	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$23.21	-$23.34	LOSS	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.600	$23.21	$15.24	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-12	98-99°F	YES	0.010	$3.45	-$3.54	LOSS	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-12	80-81°F	NO	0.650	$13.85	-$13.98	LOSS	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-12	80-81°F	NO	0.650	$14.46	-$14.58	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-12	80-81°F	NO	0.650	$12.76	-$12.87	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-12	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$12.96	$3.58	WIN	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$25.20	$11.13	WIN	88°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$35.48	$15.67	WIN	88°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$7.33	$3.55	WIN	88°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$26.29	$11.61	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$6.47	$3.13	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$23.21	$10.25	WIN	88°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.590	$25.20	$17.25	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$25.20	-$25.29	LOSS	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.590	$35.48	$24.30	WIN	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$35.48	-$35.61	LOSS	92°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$31.95	-$32.06	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.590	$26.29	$18.00	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.590	$23.21	$15.89	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-12	86-87°F	YES	0.120	$2.95	-$3.01	LOSS	92°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-12	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$25.20	-$25.29	LOSS	72°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-12	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$25.20	$10.61	WIN	72°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-12	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$35.48	-$35.62	LOSS	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-12	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$31.95	-$32.07	LOSS	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-12	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$31.95	$13.45	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-12	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$26.29	$15.20	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-12	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$26.29	$11.07	WIN	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-12	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$23.21	-$23.30	LOSS	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-12	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$23.21	$13.42	WIN	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-12	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$14.23	$5.99	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-12	78-79°F	YES	0.071	$5.68	-$5.82	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-12	80-81°F	YES	0.031	$5.95	-$6.09	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-12	82-83°F	YES	0.005	$3.01	-$3.09	LOSS	72°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-12	88-89°F	NO	0.520	$25.20	$22.96	WIN	90°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-12	88-89°F	NO	0.520	$31.95	$29.11	WIN	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-12	88-89°F	NO	0.520	$26.29	$23.95	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-12	92-93°F	YES	0.028	$4.82	-$4.94	LOSS	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-12	94-95°F	NO	0.630	$11.35	-$11.45	LOSS	94°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-12	94-95°F	NO	0.630	$35.48	-$35.81	LOSS	94°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.730	$35.48	$12.89	WIN	94°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.730	$31.95	$11.60	WIN	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-12	94-95°F	NO	0.630	$26.29	-$26.54	LOSS	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.730	$4.51	$1.64	WIN	94°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-12	98-99°F	YES	0.052	$6.51	-$6.66	LOSS	94°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-12	100°F or higher	YES	0.010	$5.19	-$5.32	LOSS	94°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-12	96-97°F	YES	0.240	$2.71	-$2.76	LOSS	94°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-12	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$31.95	$20.98	WIN	74°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-12	68-69°F	YES	0.040	$4.46	-$4.56	LOSS	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$29.83	$23.11	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$36.11	$27.97	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$26.06	$20.19	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$23.55	$18.25	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-11	76-77°F	NO	0.680	$29.83	$13.80	WIN	78°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-11	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$29.83	$2.53	WIN	78°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-11	76-77°F	NO	0.680	$43.90	$20.31	WIN	78°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-11	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$43.90	$3.73	WIN	78°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-11	76-77°F	NO	0.680	$36.11	$16.70	WIN	78°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-11	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$36.11	$3.07	WIN	78°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-11	76-77°F	NO	0.680	$26.06	$12.05	WIN	78°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-11	78-79°F	NO	0.750	$26.06	-$26.22	LOSS	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-11	76-77°F	NO	0.680	$23.55	$10.89	WIN	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-11	78-79°F	NO	0.750	$23.55	-$23.70	LOSS	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-11	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$23.55	$2.00	WIN	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-11	82-83°F	NO	0.980	$23.55	$0.47	WIN	78°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-11	70-71°F	YES	0.018	$3.08	-$3.16	LOSS	78°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-11	74-75°F	YES	0.180	$4.66	-$4.76	LOSS	78°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-11	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$29.83	$13.17	WIN	88°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-11	88-89°F	NO	0.540	$10.95	-$11.08	LOSS	88°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-11	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$43.90	$19.38	WIN	88°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-11	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$26.06	$11.51	WIN	88°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-11	88-89°F	NO	0.540	$9.57	-$9.68	LOSS	88°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-11	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$23.55	$10.40	WIN	88°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-11	90-91°F	YES	0.140	$5.69	-$5.81	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-11	92-93°F	YES	0.016	$2.25	-$2.30	LOSS	88°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.880	$29.83	$3.98	WIN	94°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-11	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$29.83	-$30.06	LOSS	94°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.880	$43.90	$5.85	WIN	94°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-11	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$43.90	-$44.24	LOSS	94°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.880	$36.11	$4.82	WIN	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-11	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$26.06	$12.62	WIN	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-11	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$6.09	-$6.13	LOSS	94°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-11	100-101°F	YES	0.015	$3.05	-$3.12	LOSS	94°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-11	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$25.52	$14.75	WIN	72°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-11	72-73°F	NO	0.730	$23.18	-$23.34	LOSS	72°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-11	72-73°F	NO	0.730	$43.90	-$44.19	LOSS	72°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-11	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$30.89	$17.86	WIN	72°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-11	72-73°F	NO	0.730	$36.11	-$36.35	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-11	66-67°F	YES	0.069	$2.90	-$2.97	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-11	68-69°F	YES	0.180	$6.01	-$6.13	LOSS	72°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-11	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$10.41	$5.51	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-11	90-91°F	YES	0.041	$2.14	-$2.19	LOSS	92°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-11	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$26.06	$10.97	WIN	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-11	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$26.06	-$26.30	LOSS	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-11	72-73°F	NO	0.700	$23.55	$9.92	WIN	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-11	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$23.55	-$23.77	LOSS	74°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-11	78-79°F	YES	0.100	$5.43	-$5.55	LOSS	74°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-11	82-83°F	YES	0.002	$4.70	-$4.82	LOSS	74°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-11	88-89°F	YES	0.190	$2.63	-$2.69	LOSS	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-10	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$19.68	-$19.88	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-10	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$22.44	-$22.67	LOSS	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-10	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$28.29	$16.35	WIN	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-10	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$33.37	$19.29	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-10	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$32.26	$18.65	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-10	90-91°F	NO	0.830	$27.84	-$27.96	LOSS	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-10	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$27.84	$16.09	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-10	94-95°F	YES	0.237	$3.13	-$3.19	LOSS	90°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-10	96°F or higher	YES	0.090	$8.13	-$8.32	LOSS	90°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-10	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$21.05	$10.20	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-10	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$24.83	$12.02	WIN	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-10	92-93°F	NO	0.690	$9.69	-$9.76	LOSS	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-10	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$24.01	$11.63	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-10	90-91°F	NO	0.750	$28.29	$9.25	WIN	86°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-10	90-91°F	NO	0.750	$38.31	$12.53	WIN	86°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-10	90-91°F	NO	0.750	$32.26	$10.55	WIN	86°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-10	90-91°F	NO	0.750	$27.84	$9.11	WIN	86°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-10	92-93°F	NO	0.920	$27.84	$2.37	WIN	86°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-10	86-87°F	YES	0.160	$4.99	$26.07	WIN	86°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-10	76-77°F	NO	0.840	$28.29	$5.28	WIN	75°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-10	76-77°F	NO	0.840	$38.31	$7.14	WIN	75°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-10	76-77°F	NO	0.840	$33.37	$6.22	WIN	75°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-10	75°F or below	NO	0.230	$32.26	-$32.89	LOSS	75°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-10	75°F or below	NO	0.230	$27.84	-$28.38	LOSS	75°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-10	76-77°F	NO	0.840	$27.84	$5.19	WIN	75°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-10	78-79°F	YES	0.070	$8.31	-$8.50	LOSS	75°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-10	82-83°F	YES	0.005	$9.79	-$10.04	LOSS	75°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-10	84-85°F	YES	0.002	$4.34	-$4.45	LOSS	75°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-10	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$32.26	-$32.59	LOSS	86°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-10	88-89°F	NO	0.550	$12.03	$9.71	WIN	86°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-10	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$27.84	-$28.12	LOSS	86°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-10	88-89°F	NO	0.550	$10.38	$8.38	WIN	86°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-10	90-91°F	YES	0.096	$8.71	-$8.90	LOSS	86°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-10	92-93°F	YES	0.004	$3.25	-$3.34	LOSS	86°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-10	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$32.26	$17.86	WIN	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-10	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$9.03	$3.45	WIN	82°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-10	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$17.46	$1.69	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-10	82-83°F	YES	0.160	$6.14	$32.08	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-10	84-85°F	YES	0.048	$6.13	-$6.28	LOSS	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-09	82-83°F	NO	0.590	$15.34	-$15.50	LOSS	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-09	82-83°F	NO	0.590	$19.03	-$19.22	LOSS	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-09	82-83°F	NO	0.590	$14.94	-$15.09	LOSS	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-09	82-83°F	NO	0.590	$14.19	-$14.34	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-09	86-87°F	YES	0.048	$2.83	-$2.90	LOSS	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-09	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$29.44	$7.67	WIN	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$29.44	-$29.72	LOSS	86°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-09	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$34.21	$8.91	WIN	86°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-09	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$36.51	$9.51	WIN	86°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$36.51	-$36.86	LOSS	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$28.67	-$28.94	LOSS	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-09	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$27.23	$7.10	WIN	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$27.23	-$27.49	LOSS	86°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-09	88-89°F	YES	0.220	$3.41	-$3.47	LOSS	86°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$28.84	-$29.11	LOSS	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$35.76	-$36.10	LOSS	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$28.08	-$28.35	LOSS	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$26.68	-$26.93	LOSS	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-09	94-95°F	NO	0.820	$23.05	$4.96	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-09	88-89°F	YES	0.060	$3.47	-$3.55	LOSS	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$29.44	-$29.68	LOSS	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$34.21	-$34.48	LOSS	92°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$36.51	-$36.80	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$28.67	-$28.90	LOSS	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$27.23	-$27.45	LOSS	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-09	94-95°F	NO	0.920	$27.23	$2.31	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-09	98-99°F	NO	0.990	$27.23	$0.27	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-09	88-89°F	YES	0.170	$7.01	-$7.15	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-09	86-87°F	YES	0.029	$3.94	-$4.04	LOSS	92°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-09	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$29.44	$11.81	WIN	72°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-09	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$34.21	$13.72	WIN	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-09	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$36.51	$14.65	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-09	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$28.67	$11.50	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-09	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$28.67	-$29.00	LOSS	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-09	68-69°F	NO	0.940	$17.77	$1.11	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-09	74-75°F	YES	0.140	$7.39	-$7.55	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-09	76-77°F	YES	0.037	$7.95	-$8.14	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-09	78-79°F	YES	0.009	$3.91	-$4.01	LOSS	72°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$29.44	$10.15	WIN	88°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-09	88-89°F	NO	0.480	$18.17	-$18.40	LOSS	88°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$34.21	$11.80	WIN	88°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$36.51	$12.59	WIN	88°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-09	88-89°F	NO	0.480	$22.53	-$22.82	LOSS	88°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$28.67	$9.89	WIN	88°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-09	88-89°F	NO	0.480	$17.69	-$17.92	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-09	90-91°F	YES	0.190	$5.86	-$5.98	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-09	92-93°F	YES	0.024	$2.89	-$2.96	LOSS	88°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-09	78-79°F	NO	0.670	$25.97	$12.58	WIN	80°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-09	78-79°F	NO	0.670	$34.21	$16.57	WIN	80°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-09	78-79°F	NO	0.670	$25.29	$12.25	WIN	80°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-09	84-85°F	YES	0.011	$3.18	-$3.26	LOSS	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-08	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$28.12	$6.89	WIN	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-08	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$28.12	$14.25	WIN	80°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-08	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$33.34	$8.17	WIN	80°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-08	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$33.34	$16.89	WIN	80°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-08	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$33.45	$8.19	WIN	80°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-08	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$27.77	$14.07	WIN	80°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-08	74-75°F	NO	0.950	$27.69	$1.42	WIN	80°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	12/30	no
CHI	11/30	no
DAL	12/30	no
DEN	12/30	no
LAX	12/30	no
MIA	12/30	no
NYC	11/30	no
SEA	8/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$1,981.46.