Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-314008 decisions14:02:24 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-07-16: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 37 positions {'baseline': 8, 'h1': 6, 'h2': 7, 'h3': 8, 'h4': 8, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 44, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-07-17T14:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-07-17 14:02:24 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

2015

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$3,599.96

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 2015 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	411	8	289	59%	-0.0852	-0.0901	-0.1432	-$716.02	$8,402
baseline	secondary	FAIL	374	8	256	66%	-0.0850	-0.0893	-0.0160	-$651.88	$7,670
h1	secondary	FAIL	298	6	228	76%	+0.0004	-0.0025	-0.0263	$4.81	$11,024
h2	secondary	FAIL	277	7	208	71%	-0.0625	-0.0676	-0.0306	-$467.60	$7,479
h4	secondary	FAIL	399	8	212	65%	-0.1116	-0.1165	-0.0070	-$789.20	$7,073
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions37 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$11.86	0.136	0.864
baseline	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$11.86	0.288	0.712
baseline	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$11.86	0.019	0.981
baseline	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$11.86	0.067	0.933
baseline	LAX	2026-07-17	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$11.86	0.018	0.982
baseline	MIA	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.560	$5.64	0.377	0.623
baseline	NYC	2026-07-17	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$11.86	0.029	0.971
baseline	NYC	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.670	$11.86	0.202	0.798
h1	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$32.51	0.136	0.864
h1	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$32.51	0.019	0.981
h1	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$32.51	0.067	0.933
h1	LAX	2026-07-17	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$32.51	0.018	0.982
h1	NYC	2026-07-17	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$32.51	0.029	0.971
h1	NYC	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.670	$32.51	0.202	0.798
h2	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$17.74	0.136	0.864
h2	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$17.74	0.288	0.712
h2	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$17.74	0.019	0.981
h2	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$17.74	0.067	0.933
h2	LAX	2026-07-17	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$17.74	0.018	0.982
h2	MIA	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.560	$8.43	0.377	0.623
h2	NYC	2026-07-17	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$17.74	0.029	0.971
h3	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$9.83	0.288	0.712
h3	CHI	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.670	$9.83	0.082	0.918
h3	DAL	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$9.83	0.179	0.821
h3	DEN	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$9.83	0.230	0.770
h3	DEN	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$9.83	0.074	0.926
h3	LAX	2026-07-17	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$9.83	0.046	0.954
h3	LAX	2026-07-17	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$9.83	0.117	0.883
h3	MIA	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$9.83	0.141	0.859
h4	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$7.65	0.136	0.864
h4	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$7.65	0.288	0.712
h4	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$7.65	0.019	0.981
h4	CHI	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$7.65	0.028	0.972
h4	CHI	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.670	$7.65	0.082	0.918
h4	DAL	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$7.65	0.179	0.821
h4	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$7.65	0.067	0.933
h4	DEN	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$7.65	0.230	0.770

Settlements2015 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$12.85	$9.56	WIN	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$12.85	-$12.91	LOSS	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$45.14	-$45.37	LOSS	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$22.13	$16.46	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$22.13	-$22.25	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$9.51	$7.07	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$7.28	$5.41	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$7.28	-$7.31	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$12.85	$3.55	WIN	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$45.14	$12.48	WIN	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$22.13	$6.12	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.740	$9.51	-$9.57	LOSS	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$9.51	$4.40	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$7.28	$2.01	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.740	$7.28	-$7.32	LOSS	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$7.28	$3.37	WIN	90°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$12.85	$3.55	WIN	88°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$45.14	$12.48	WIN	88°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$22.13	$6.12	WIN	88°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-16	88-89°F	NO	0.670	$2.39	-$2.41	LOSS	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$7.28	$2.01	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.895	$7.28	$0.83	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.970	$7.28	$0.22	WIN	88°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-16	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$12.85	$2.95	WIN	82°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-16	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$12.85	-$12.92	LOSS	82°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-16	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$45.14	$10.37	WIN	82°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-16	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$45.14	-$45.39	LOSS	82°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-16	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$22.13	$5.09	WIN	82°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-16	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$22.13	-$22.26	LOSS	82°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-16	80-81°F	NO	0.590	$9.51	$6.51	WIN	82°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$10.38	$4.80	WIN	96°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.510	$7.59	$7.20	WIN	96°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$36.46	$16.87	WIN	96°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$7.68	$3.55	WIN	96°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.510	$5.61	$5.32	WIN	96°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$7.73	$1.66	WIN	88°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$45.14	$9.71	WIN	88°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$45.14	$18.11	WIN	88°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$22.13	$4.76	WIN	88°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$9.51	$4.00	WIN	88°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$3.33	$1.34	WIN	88°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-16	66-67°F	NO	0.800	$8.68	$2.13	WIN	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-16	66-67°F	NO	0.800	$22.13	$5.42	WIN	64°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.510	$9.51	-$9.62	LOSS	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-15	84-85°F	NO	0.820	$12.62	$2.71	WIN	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-15	86-87°F	NO	0.590	$12.62	$8.64	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-15	84-85°F	NO	0.820	$44.52	$9.57	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-15	84-85°F	NO	0.820	$21.59	$4.64	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-15	86-87°F	NO	0.590	$21.59	$14.78	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-15	86-87°F	NO	0.590	$10.23	$7.00	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-15	84-85°F	NO	0.820	$7.12	$1.53	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-15	86-87°F	NO	0.590	$7.12	$4.87	WIN	88°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-15	88-89°F	NO	0.610	$9.70	$6.11	WIN	90°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-15	88-89°F	NO	0.610	$7.86	$4.95	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-15	88-89°F	NO	0.610	$5.47	$3.45	WIN	90°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$12.62	-$12.70	LOSS	94°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$44.52	-$44.81	LOSS	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$21.59	-$21.73	LOSS	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-15	92-93°F	NO	0.490	$10.23	$10.51	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$10.23	-$10.29	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-15	92-93°F	NO	0.490	$7.12	$7.32	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$7.12	-$7.17	LOSS	94°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-15	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$12.62	-$12.73	LOSS	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$7.82	$7.12	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-15	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$44.52	-$44.89	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-15	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$2.37	-$2.39	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-15	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$12.62	$3.29	WIN	98°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-15	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$44.52	$11.60	WIN	98°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-15	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$21.59	$5.63	WIN	98°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$10.23	-$10.30	LOSS	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-15	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$10.23	$7.00	WIN	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-15	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$7.12	-$7.17	LOSS	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-15	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$7.12	$4.87	WIN	94°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-15	78-79°F	NO	0.690	$10.23	$4.52	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-15	80-81°F	NO	0.590	$10.23	-$10.33	LOSS	80°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-15	76-77°F	NO	0.970	$7.12	$0.21	WIN	80°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-15	78-79°F	NO	0.690	$1.65	$0.73	WIN	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-14	80-81°F	NO	0.600	$9.12	$5.99	WIN	84°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-14	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$8.21	$3.98	WIN	84°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-14	80-81°F	NO	0.600	$16.91	$11.10	WIN	84°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-14	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$15.22	$7.37	WIN	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-14	80-81°F	NO	0.600	$9.41	$6.18	WIN	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-14	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$8.47	$4.10	WIN	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-14	80-81°F	NO	0.600	$6.58	$4.32	WIN	84°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.860	$10.68	$1.70	WIN	96°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.860	$35.04	$5.58	WIN	96°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.860	$19.79	$3.15	WIN	96°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.630	$11.02	-$11.12	LOSS	96°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.860	$7.71	$1.23	WIN	96°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.630	$7.71	-$7.78	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-14	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$10.68	$5.66	WIN	90°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-14	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$35.04	$18.56	WIN	90°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-14	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$11.02	$5.84	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-14	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$7.71	$4.08	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-14	92-93°F	NO	0.949	$7.71	$0.40	WIN	90°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.830	$10.68	$2.14	WIN	94°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.830	$35.04	$7.03	WIN	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.830	$19.79	$3.97	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.490	$11.02	-$11.16	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.490	$7.71	-$7.81	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.830	$7.71	$1.55	WIN	94°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.500	$10.68	-$10.81	LOSS	94°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.500	$19.79	-$20.04	LOSS	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.500	$11.02	-$11.16	LOSS	94°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-14	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$10.68	-$10.70	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.640	$10.68	$5.91	WIN	92°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-14	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$35.04	-$35.13	LOSS	92°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-14	96-97°F	NO	0.640	$35.04	$19.40	WIN	92°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-14	92-93°F	NO	0.900	$19.79	-$19.84	LOSS	92°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-14	94-95°F	NO	0.620	$4.15	$2.51	WIN	92°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-14	74-75°F	NO	0.680	$11.02	$5.10	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-14	76-77°F	NO	0.550	$11.02	-$11.14	LOSS	76°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-14	74-75°F	NO	0.680	$7.71	$3.57	WIN	76°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-14	76-77°F	NO	0.550	$1.12	-$1.14	LOSS	76°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$11.15	$5.65	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$37.91	$19.21	WIN	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-13	82-83°F	NO	0.660	$2.04	-$2.06	LOSS	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$11.98	$6.07	WIN	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-13	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$11.15	$2.08	WIN	92°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-13	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$37.91	$7.07	WIN	92°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-13	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$19.56	$3.65	WIN	92°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-13	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$11.98	-$12.10	LOSS	92°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-13	94-95°F	NO	0.710	$1.88	$0.75	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-13	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$8.04	$1.50	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-13	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$8.04	-$8.12	LOSS	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$11.15	$3.08	WIN	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-13	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$9.19	$4.06	WIN	92°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$37.91	$10.49	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$19.56	$5.41	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-13	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$16.11	$7.11	WIN	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-13	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$9.87	$4.36	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$8.04	$2.22	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-13	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$6.62	$2.92	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-13	98-99°F	NO	0.779	$11.15	$3.10	WIN	96°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-13	98-99°F	NO	0.779	$37.91	$10.55	WIN	96°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-13	98-99°F	NO	0.779	$19.56	$5.44	WIN	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-13	96-97°F	NO	0.480	$11.98	-$12.13	LOSS	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-13	96-97°F	NO	0.480	$8.04	-$8.14	LOSS	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-13	98-99°F	NO	0.779	$8.04	$2.24	WIN	96°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-13	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$11.15	$4.69	WIN	74°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-13	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$37.91	$15.96	WIN	74°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-13	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$19.56	$8.23	WIN	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-13	74-75°F	NO	0.620	$11.98	-$12.09	LOSS	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-13	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$11.98	$5.04	WIN	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-13	72-73°F	NO	0.940	$8.04	$0.50	WIN	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-13	74-75°F	NO	0.620	$8.04	-$8.11	LOSS	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-13	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$1.41	$0.60	WIN	74°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-13	94-95°F	NO	0.570	$11.15	$8.29	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-13	94-95°F	NO	0.570	$37.91	$28.19	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-13	94-95°F	NO	0.570	$11.98	$8.91	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-13	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$11.15	$2.08	WIN	84°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-13	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$37.91	$7.07	WIN	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-13	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$19.56	$3.65	WIN	84°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-13	84-85°F	NO	0.560	$10.17	-$10.29	LOSS	84°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$11.73	$4.04	WIN	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-12	86-87°F	NO	0.670	$11.73	-$11.82	LOSS	86°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$40.25	$13.88	WIN	86°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-12	86-87°F	NO	0.670	$40.25	-$40.58	LOSS	86°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$22.44	$7.74	WIN	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$13.32	$4.59	WIN	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-12	86-87°F	NO	0.670	$13.32	-$13.43	LOSS	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-12	80-81°F	NO	0.970	$8.51	$0.26	WIN	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$8.51	$2.93	WIN	86°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$11.24	$5.95	WIN	96°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$21.51	$11.40	WIN	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$12.77	$6.76	WIN	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-12	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$13.32	-$13.43	LOSS	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-12	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$8.51	-$8.58	LOSS	96°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-12	72-73°F	NO	0.840	$11.73	$2.19	WIN	74°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-12	76-77°F	NO	0.730	$11.73	$4.26	WIN	74°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-12	72-73°F	NO	0.840	$40.25	$7.50	WIN	74°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-12	76-77°F	NO	0.730	$40.25	$14.61	WIN	74°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-12	72-73°F	NO	0.840	$22.44	$4.18	WIN	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-12	74-75°F	NO	0.480	$13.32	-$13.49	LOSS	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-12	76-77°F	NO	0.730	$13.32	$4.84	WIN	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-12	72-73°F	NO	0.840	$8.51	$1.59	WIN	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-12	74-75°F	NO	0.480	$8.51	-$8.62	LOSS	74°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-12	76-77°F	NO	0.730	$8.51	$3.09	WIN	74°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$11.73	-$11.82	LOSS	94°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$40.25	-$40.56	LOSS	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-12	92-93°F	NO	0.550	$5.28	$4.26	WIN	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$13.32	-$13.42	LOSS	94°F
h4	MIA	2026-07-12	92-93°F	NO	0.550	$3.37	$2.72	WIN	94°F
h4	MIA	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$5.13	-$5.17	LOSS	94°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-12	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$11.73	$3.44	WIN	84°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$7.82	-$7.90	LOSS	84°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-12	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$40.25	$11.79	WIN	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-12	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$22.44	$6.57	WIN	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-12	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$14.97	-$15.11	LOSS	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-12	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$7.15	$3.01	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-12	86-87°F	NO	0.850	$8.51	$1.47	WIN	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-12	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$1.25	$0.58	WIN	98°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-11	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$12.17	$2.80	WIN	94°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$12.17	$7.03	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-11	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$36.91	$8.48	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$36.91	$21.34	WIN	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-11	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$19.64	$4.51	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$15.98	$9.24	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-11	88-89°F	NO	0.810	$9.15	$2.10	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-11	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$9.15	$5.29	WIN	94°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	45/30	yes
CHI	44/30	yes
DAL	44/30	yes
DEN	45/30	yes
LAX	45/30	yes
MIA	45/30	yes
NYC	44/30	yes
SEA	33/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$3,599.96.