Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated 28 min agoPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-311370 decisions20:30:07 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-06-15: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 58 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 7, 'h2': 8, 'h3': 11, 'h4': 10, 'yes_diag': 13}
settle▸ [settle] settled 54, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-06-15T20:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-06-15 20:30:07 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

110

Settled trades

640

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$1,996.29

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 640 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	119	20	84	63%	-0.0363	-0.0472	-0.0854	-$117.74	$3,239
baseline	secondary	FAIL	107	17	77	63%	-0.0893	-0.0998	-0.0367	-$287.04	$3,215
h1	secondary	FAIL	85	15	68	69%	-0.0505	-0.0606	-0.0679	-$159.46	$3,156
h2	secondary	FAIL	70	14	55	69%	-0.0743	-0.0870	-0.0996	-$185.38	$2,497
h4	secondary	FAIL	126	18	73	63%	-0.1060	-0.1167	+0.1043	-$344.10	$3,245
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	133	26	77	9%	-0.6585	-0.8057	-0.0622	-$902.57	$1,371

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions110 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-06-15	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$26.16	0.255	0.745
baseline	ATL	2026-06-15	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$26.16	0.107	0.893
baseline	CHI	2026-06-15	74-75°F	NO	0.710	$26.16	0.161	0.839
baseline	DAL	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$26.16	0.236	0.764
baseline	DEN	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$26.16	0.242	0.758
baseline	DEN	2026-06-15	82-83°F	NO	0.823	$26.16	0.079	0.921
baseline	LAX	2026-06-15	70-71°F	NO	0.690	$26.16	0.115	0.885
baseline	LAX	2026-06-15	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$26.16	0.231	0.769
h1	ATL	2026-06-15	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$30.47	0.107	0.893
h1	CHI	2026-06-15	74-75°F	NO	0.710	$30.47	0.161	0.839
h1	DAL	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$30.47	0.236	0.764
h1	DEN	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$30.47	0.242	0.758
h1	DEN	2026-06-15	82-83°F	NO	0.823	$30.47	0.079	0.921
h1	LAX	2026-06-15	70-71°F	NO	0.690	$30.47	0.115	0.885
h1	LAX	2026-06-15	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$30.47	0.231	0.769
h1	NYC	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$30.47	0.236	0.764
h2	ATL	2026-06-15	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$36.90	0.255	0.745
h2	ATL	2026-06-15	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$36.90	0.107	0.893
h2	CHI	2026-06-15	74-75°F	NO	0.710	$36.90	0.161	0.839
h2	DEN	2026-06-15	82-83°F	NO	0.823	$36.90	0.079	0.921
h2	LAX	2026-06-15	70-71°F	NO	0.690	$36.90	0.115	0.885
h2	MIA	2026-06-15	90-91°F	NO	0.500	$28.84	0.374	0.626
h3	ATL	2026-06-15	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$29.08	0.255	0.745
h3	CHI	2026-06-15	74-75°F	NO	0.710	$29.08	0.161	0.839
h3	CHI	2026-06-15	76-77°F	NO	0.670	$7.68	0.300	0.700
h3	DAL	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$29.08	0.236	0.764
h3	DEN	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$29.08	0.242	0.758
h3	LAX	2026-06-15	70-71°F	NO	0.690	$29.08	0.115	0.885
h3	LAX	2026-06-15	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$29.08	0.231	0.769
h3	MIA	2026-06-15	90-91°F	NO	0.500	$22.72	0.374	0.626
h3	NYC	2026-06-15	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$27.75	0.103	0.897
h4	ATL	2026-06-15	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$24.17	0.255	0.745
h4	ATL	2026-06-15	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$24.17	0.107	0.893
h4	CHI	2026-06-15	72-73°F	NO	0.900	$24.17	0.058	0.942
h4	CHI	2026-06-15	74-75°F	NO	0.710	$24.17	0.161	0.839
h4	DAL	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.680	$24.17	0.236	0.764
h4	DEN	2026-06-15	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$24.17	0.242	0.758
h4	DEN	2026-06-15	82-83°F	NO	0.823	$24.17	0.079	0.921
h4	LAX	2026-06-15	70-71°F	NO	0.690	$24.17	0.115	0.885
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-15	80-81°F	YES	0.090	$1.69	0.172	0.172
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-15	78-79°F	YES	0.180	$1.85	0.262	0.262
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-15	80-81°F	YES	0.052	$1.29	0.117	0.117
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-15	76-77°F	YES	0.090	$2.17	0.195	0.195
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-15	78-79°F	YES	0.240	$2.47	0.361	0.361
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-15	74-75°F	YES	0.100	$1.95	0.273	0.273
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-15	76-77°F	YES	0.040	$2.66	0.174	0.174
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-15	78-79°F	YES	0.010	$1.25	0.075	0.075
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-15	94-95°F	YES	0.030	$1.24	0.094	0.094
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-15	82-83°F	YES	0.209	$1.40	0.300	0.300
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-15	84-85°F	YES	0.065	$2.39	0.183	0.183
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-15	86-87°F	YES	0.008	$1.22	0.071	0.071
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-15	92-93°F	YES	0.098	$1.81	0.185	0.185
baseline	ATL	2026-06-16	74-75°F	NO	0.670	$20.94	0.270	0.730
baseline	CHI	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.890	$25.10	0.046	0.954
baseline	CHI	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.690	$25.10	0.131	0.869
baseline	DAL	2026-06-16	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$25.10	0.228	0.772
baseline	DEN	2026-06-16	92-93°F	NO	0.760	$25.10	0.050	0.950
baseline	LAX	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$20.65	0.278	0.722
baseline	MIA	2026-06-16	92-93°F	NO	0.550	$10.48	0.384	0.616
baseline	NYC	2026-06-16	76-77°F	NO	0.760	$25.10	0.122	0.878
baseline	NYC	2026-06-16	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$23.24	0.259	0.741
h1	CHI	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.890	$29.75	0.046	0.954
h1	CHI	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.690	$29.75	0.131	0.869
h1	DAL	2026-06-16	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$29.75	0.228	0.772
h1	DEN	2026-06-16	92-93°F	NO	0.760	$29.75	0.050	0.950
h1	NYC	2026-06-16	76-77°F	NO	0.760	$29.75	0.122	0.878
h1	SEA	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$29.75	0.069	0.931
h1	SEA	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.640	$29.75	0.231	0.769
h2	ATL	2026-06-16	74-75°F	NO	0.670	$25.02	0.270	0.730
h2	CHI	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.890	$29.99	0.046	0.954
h2	CHI	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.690	$29.99	0.131	0.869
h2	DEN	2026-06-16	92-93°F	NO	0.760	$29.99	0.050	0.950
h2	MIA	2026-06-16	92-93°F	NO	0.550	$12.52	0.384	0.616
h2	NYC	2026-06-16	76-77°F	NO	0.760	$29.99	0.122	0.878
h2	NYC	2026-06-16	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$29.99	0.259	0.741
h2	SEA	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$29.99	0.069	0.931
h3	ATL	2026-06-16	74-75°F	NO	0.670	$27.01	0.270	0.730
h3	CHI	2026-06-16	74-75°F	NO	0.680	$18.97	0.278	0.722
h3	CHI	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.690	$32.38	0.131	0.869
h3	DAL	2026-06-16	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$13.76	0.310	0.690
h3	DAL	2026-06-16	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$32.38	0.228	0.772
h3	DEN	2026-06-16	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$32.38	0.168	0.832
h3	LAX	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$32.38	0.188	0.812
h3	LAX	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$26.63	0.278	0.722
h3	MIA	2026-06-16	90-91°F	NO	0.670	$14.29	0.296	0.704
h3	MIA	2026-06-16	92-93°F	NO	0.550	$13.52	0.384	0.616
h3	NYC	2026-06-16	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$15.35	0.259	0.741
h4	ATL	2026-06-16	74-75°F	NO	0.670	$19.24	0.270	0.730
h4	CHI	2026-06-16	74-75°F	NO	0.680	$13.51	0.278	0.722
h4	CHI	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.890	$23.07	0.046	0.954
h4	CHI	2026-06-16	72-73°F	NO	0.690	$23.07	0.131	0.869
h4	DAL	2026-06-16	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$9.80	0.310	0.690
h4	DAL	2026-06-16	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$23.07	0.228	0.772
h4	DEN	2026-06-16	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$23.07	0.168	0.832
h4	DEN	2026-06-16	92-93°F	NO	0.760	$23.07	0.050	0.950
h4	DEN	2026-06-16	94-95°F	NO	0.957	$23.07	0.015	0.985
h4	LAX	2026-06-16	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$3.58	0.188	0.812
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-16	78-79°F	YES	0.080	$1.49	0.156	0.156
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-16	76-77°F	YES	0.110	$3.65	0.289	0.289
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-16	78-79°F	YES	0.040	$1.98	0.144	0.144
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-16	86-87°F	YES	0.130	$1.31	0.195	0.195
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-16	84-85°F	YES	0.024	$1.31	0.094	0.094
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-16	86-87°F	YES	0.100	$3.44	0.270	0.270
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-16	88-89°F	YES	0.200	$1.72	0.350	0.350
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-16	74-75°F	YES	0.050	$3.23	0.218	0.218
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-16	76-77°F	YES	0.022	$1.53	0.104	0.104
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-16	82-83°F	YES	0.040	$2.27	0.159	0.159
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-16	84-85°F	YES	0.005	$1.01	0.060	0.060
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-16	74-75°F	YES	0.290	$2.01	0.375	0.375
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-16	76-77°F	YES	0.100	$2.07	0.203	0.203

Settlements640 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$21.30	$7.73	WIN	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-14	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$20.16	-$20.36	LOSS	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$24.68	$8.96	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$25.49	$9.25	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-14	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$24.12	-$24.36	LOSS	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$20.64	$7.49	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-14	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$19.53	-$19.72	LOSS	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$24.59	$9.87	WIN	68°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$28.49	$11.43	WIN	68°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$29.42	$11.80	WIN	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$23.82	$9.56	WIN	68°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-14	74-75°F	YES	0.150	$2.15	-$2.20	LOSS	68°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-14	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$24.59	-$24.64	LOSS	84°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$24.59	$4.93	WIN	84°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$24.59	$8.93	WIN	84°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-14	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$28.49	-$28.56	LOSS	84°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$28.49	$5.72	WIN	84°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$28.49	$10.35	WIN	84°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-14	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$29.96	-$30.02	LOSS	84°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$29.96	$6.01	WIN	84°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$29.42	$10.68	WIN	84°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-14	84-85°F	NO	0.910	$23.82	-$23.88	LOSS	84°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.830	$23.82	$4.78	WIN	84°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.730	$23.82	$8.65	WIN	84°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-14	90-91°F	YES	0.230	$1.23	-$1.25	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-14	92-93°F	YES	0.119	$3.16	-$3.23	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-14	94-95°F	YES	0.036	$1.60	-$1.64	LOSS	84°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$24.59	-$24.68	LOSS	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$28.49	-$28.60	LOSS	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$29.96	-$30.07	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-14	72-73°F	NO	0.570	$29.42	$21.88	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-14	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$8.27	$3.48	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-14	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$7.48	-$7.50	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-14	76-77°F	YES	0.070	$3.37	-$3.45	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-14	78-79°F	YES	0.020	$1.79	-$1.83	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-14	90-91°F	NO	0.470	$24.37	$27.16	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-14	90-91°F	NO	0.470	$29.16	$32.49	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-14	92-93°F	NO	0.730	$18.74	-$18.87	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-14	88-89°F	YES	0.120	$2.13	-$2.18	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$7.94	$2.74	WIN	90°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$28.49	$9.83	WIN	90°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.630	$28.49	$16.47	WIN	90°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$29.96	$10.33	WIN	90°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-14	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$29.42	$10.15	WIN	90°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.630	$11.89	$6.88	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-14	90-91°F	YES	0.190	$2.10	$8.92	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-14	92-93°F	YES	0.020	$3.83	-$3.93	LOSS	90°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-14	94-95°F	YES	0.004	$1.56	-$1.60	LOSS	90°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-14	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$3.81	-$3.85	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-14	84-85°F	YES	0.110	$2.22	-$2.27	LOSS	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-14	65°F or below	NO	0.940	$23.82	$1.48	WIN	72°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-14	78-79°F	NO	0.989	$23.82	$0.26	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-14	70-71°F	YES	0.270	$1.85	-$1.88	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-14	72-73°F	YES	0.184	$1.77	$7.80	WIN	72°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-13	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$27.40	$10.99	WIN	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-13	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$26.61	-$26.91	LOSS	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-13	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$34.27	$13.75	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-13	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$26.42	$10.60	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-13	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$25.65	-$25.94	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-13	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$23.56	$9.45	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-13	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$22.87	-$23.14	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.810	$27.40	-$27.53	LOSS	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-13	84-85°F	NO	0.610	$27.40	$17.25	WIN	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.810	$34.27	-$34.43	LOSS	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.810	$33.03	-$33.19	LOSS	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-13	84-85°F	NO	0.610	$33.03	$20.80	WIN	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-13	84-85°F	NO	0.610	$26.42	$16.63	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-13	80-81°F	NO	0.940	$23.56	$1.47	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.810	$23.56	-$23.67	LOSS	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-13	84-85°F	NO	0.610	$23.56	$14.83	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-13	88-89°F	YES	0.080	$3.01	-$3.08	LOSS	82°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-13	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$27.40	$14.52	WIN	90°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-13	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$34.27	$18.15	WIN	90°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-13	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$9.21	$4.67	WIN	90°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-13	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$26.42	$13.99	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-13	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$8.22	$4.16	WIN	90°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-13	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$23.56	$12.48	WIN	90°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-13	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$27.40	$10.47	WIN	78°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$27.40	$4.01	WIN	78°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-13	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$34.27	$13.09	WIN	78°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$34.27	$5.01	WIN	78°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$33.03	$4.83	WIN	78°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-13	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$26.42	$10.09	WIN	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-13	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$23.56	$9.00	WIN	78°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-13	76-77°F	YES	0.130	$4.00	-$4.09	LOSS	78°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-13	78-79°F	YES	0.260	$3.82	$10.79	WIN	78°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-13	70-71°F	NO	0.800	$27.40	$6.71	WIN	72°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-13	70-71°F	NO	0.800	$34.27	$8.40	WIN	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-13	70-71°F	NO	0.800	$33.03	$8.09	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-13	72-73°F	NO	0.510	$26.42	-$26.74	LOSS	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-13	70-71°F	NO	0.800	$16.03	$3.93	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-13	74-75°F	YES	0.170	$2.41	-$2.46	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-13	76-77°F	YES	0.080	$2.71	-$2.77	LOSS	72°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-13	86-87°F	NO	0.900	$34.27	$3.72	WIN	88°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-13	86-87°F	NO	0.900	$33.03	$3.59	WIN	88°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-13	90-91°F	NO	0.630	$33.03	$19.10	WIN	88°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-13	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$17.97	-$18.12	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-13	92-93°F	YES	0.121	$5.74	-$5.87	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-13	94-95°F	YES	0.019	$4.16	-$4.26	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-13	96-97°F	YES	0.004	$1.61	-$1.65	LOSS	88°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.740	$34.27	-$34.49	LOSS	82°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-13	82-83°F	NO	0.740	$33.03	-$33.25	LOSS	82°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-13	84-85°F	NO	0.900	$33.03	$3.59	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-13	78-79°F	YES	0.150	$4.76	-$4.86	LOSS	82°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-13	88-89°F	NO	0.450	$26.42	$31.92	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-13	92-93°F	YES	0.034	$3.77	-$3.86	LOSS	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$25.20	-$25.34	LOSS	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$35.48	-$35.68	LOSS	90°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$31.95	-$32.13	LOSS	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.600	$26.29	$17.27	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$23.21	-$23.34	LOSS	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.600	$23.21	$15.24	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-12	98-99°F	YES	0.010	$3.45	-$3.54	LOSS	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-12	80-81°F	NO	0.650	$13.85	-$13.98	LOSS	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-12	80-81°F	NO	0.650	$14.46	-$14.58	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-12	80-81°F	NO	0.650	$12.76	-$12.87	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-12	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$12.96	$3.58	WIN	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$25.20	$11.13	WIN	88°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$35.48	$15.67	WIN	88°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$7.33	$3.55	WIN	88°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$26.29	$11.61	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$6.47	$3.13	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$23.21	$10.25	WIN	88°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.590	$25.20	$17.25	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$25.20	-$25.29	LOSS	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.590	$35.48	$24.30	WIN	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$35.48	-$35.61	LOSS	92°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$31.95	-$32.06	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.590	$26.29	$18.00	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-12	90-91°F	NO	0.590	$23.21	$15.89	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-12	86-87°F	YES	0.120	$2.95	-$3.01	LOSS	92°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-12	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$25.20	-$25.29	LOSS	72°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-12	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$25.20	$10.61	WIN	72°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-12	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$35.48	-$35.62	LOSS	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-12	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$31.95	-$32.07	LOSS	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-12	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$31.95	$13.45	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-12	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$26.29	$15.20	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-12	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$26.29	$11.07	WIN	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-12	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$23.21	-$23.30	LOSS	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-12	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$23.21	$13.42	WIN	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-12	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$14.23	$5.99	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-12	78-79°F	YES	0.071	$5.68	-$5.82	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-12	80-81°F	YES	0.031	$5.95	-$6.09	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-12	82-83°F	YES	0.005	$3.01	-$3.09	LOSS	72°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-12	88-89°F	NO	0.520	$25.20	$22.96	WIN	90°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-12	88-89°F	NO	0.520	$31.95	$29.11	WIN	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-12	88-89°F	NO	0.520	$26.29	$23.95	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-12	92-93°F	YES	0.028	$4.82	-$4.94	LOSS	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-12	94-95°F	NO	0.630	$11.35	-$11.45	LOSS	94°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-12	94-95°F	NO	0.630	$35.48	-$35.81	LOSS	94°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.730	$35.48	$12.89	WIN	94°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.730	$31.95	$11.60	WIN	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-12	94-95°F	NO	0.630	$26.29	-$26.54	LOSS	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-12	92-93°F	NO	0.730	$4.51	$1.64	WIN	94°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-12	98-99°F	YES	0.052	$6.51	-$6.66	LOSS	94°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-12	100°F or higher	YES	0.010	$5.19	-$5.32	LOSS	94°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-12	96-97°F	YES	0.240	$2.71	-$2.76	LOSS	94°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-12	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$31.95	$20.98	WIN	74°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-12	68-69°F	YES	0.040	$4.46	-$4.56	LOSS	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$29.83	$23.11	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$36.11	$27.97	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$26.06	$20.19	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$23.55	$18.25	WIN	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-11	76-77°F	NO	0.680	$29.83	$13.80	WIN	78°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-11	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$29.83	$2.53	WIN	78°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-11	76-77°F	NO	0.680	$43.90	$20.31	WIN	78°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-11	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$43.90	$3.73	WIN	78°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-11	76-77°F	NO	0.680	$36.11	$16.70	WIN	78°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-11	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$36.11	$3.07	WIN	78°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-11	76-77°F	NO	0.680	$26.06	$12.05	WIN	78°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-11	78-79°F	NO	0.750	$26.06	-$26.22	LOSS	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-11	76-77°F	NO	0.680	$23.55	$10.89	WIN	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-11	78-79°F	NO	0.750	$23.55	-$23.70	LOSS	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-11	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$23.55	$2.00	WIN	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-11	82-83°F	NO	0.980	$23.55	$0.47	WIN	78°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-11	70-71°F	YES	0.018	$3.08	-$3.16	LOSS	78°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-11	74-75°F	YES	0.180	$4.66	-$4.76	LOSS	78°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-11	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$29.83	$13.17	WIN	88°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-11	88-89°F	NO	0.540	$10.95	-$11.08	LOSS	88°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-11	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$43.90	$19.38	WIN	88°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-11	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$26.06	$11.51	WIN	88°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-11	88-89°F	NO	0.540	$9.57	-$9.68	LOSS	88°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-11	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$23.55	$10.40	WIN	88°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-11	90-91°F	YES	0.140	$5.69	-$5.81	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-11	92-93°F	YES	0.016	$2.25	-$2.30	LOSS	88°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.880	$29.83	$3.98	WIN	94°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-11	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$29.83	-$30.06	LOSS	94°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.880	$43.90	$5.85	WIN	94°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-11	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$43.90	-$44.24	LOSS	94°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-11	90-91°F	NO	0.880	$36.11	$4.82	WIN	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-11	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$26.06	$12.62	WIN	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-11	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$6.09	-$6.13	LOSS	94°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-11	100-101°F	YES	0.015	$3.05	-$3.12	LOSS	94°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-11	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$25.52	$14.75	WIN	72°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-11	72-73°F	NO	0.730	$23.18	-$23.34	LOSS	72°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-11	72-73°F	NO	0.730	$43.90	-$44.19	LOSS	72°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-11	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$30.89	$17.86	WIN	72°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-11	72-73°F	NO	0.730	$36.11	-$36.35	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-11	66-67°F	YES	0.069	$2.90	-$2.97	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-11	68-69°F	YES	0.180	$6.01	-$6.13	LOSS	72°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	14/30	no
CHI	13/30	no
DAL	14/30	no
DEN	14/30	no
LAX	14/30	no
MIA	14/30	no
NYC	13/30	no
SEA	10/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$1,996.29.