Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated 28 min agoPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-31490 decisions20:30:07 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-06-05: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 53 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 8, 'h2': 4, 'h3': 10, 'h4': 10, 'yes_diag': 12}
settle▸ [settle] settled 41, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-06-05T20:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-06-05 20:30:07 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

142

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$365.50

Primary book h3

INCONCLUSIVE

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 142 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	INCONCLUSIVE	26	16	18	62%	-0.0190	-0.0569	-0.1175	-$18.00	$946
baseline	secondary	INCONCLUSIVE	26	15	19	65%	-0.0065	-0.0371	+0.2451	-$6.52	$1,003
h1	secondary	INCONCLUSIVE	19	12	16	79%	+0.1810	+0.1543	+0.2624	$143.88	$795
h2	secondary	INCONCLUSIVE	12	9	10	67%	-0.1167	-0.1846	-0.1193	-$60.92	$522
h4	secondary	FAIL	37	19	25	51%	-0.1249	-0.1572	+0.2944	-$140.91	$1,128
yes_diag	diagnostic	INCONCLUSIVE	22	16	14	14%	-0.5042	-0.8664	-0.1322	-$283.04	$561

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions87 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$36.26	0.254	0.746
baseline	DAL	2026-06-05	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$36.26	0.123	0.877
baseline	DAL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$36.26	0.265	0.735
baseline	LAX	2026-06-05	68-69°F	NO	0.860	$36.26	0.028	0.972
baseline	LAX	2026-06-05	72-73°F	NO	0.740	$36.26	0.167	0.833
baseline	MIA	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$36.26	0.271	0.729
h1	DAL	2026-06-05	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$41.87	0.123	0.877
h1	LAX	2026-06-05	68-69°F	NO	0.860	$41.87	0.028	0.972
h1	LAX	2026-06-05	72-73°F	NO	0.740	$41.87	0.167	0.833
h1	MIA	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$41.87	0.271	0.729
h2	ATL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$41.70	0.254	0.746
h2	DAL	2026-06-05	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$41.70	0.123	0.877
h2	DAL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$41.70	0.265	0.735
h2	LAX	2026-06-05	68-69°F	NO	0.860	$41.70	0.028	0.972
h2	LAX	2026-06-05	72-73°F	NO	0.740	$41.70	0.167	0.833
h3	ATL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$36.10	0.254	0.746
h3	ATL	2026-06-05	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$5.94	0.313	0.687
h3	DAL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$36.10	0.265	0.735
h3	LAX	2026-06-05	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$36.10	0.071	0.929
h3	LAX	2026-06-05	72-73°F	NO	0.740	$36.10	0.167	0.833
h3	MIA	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$36.10	0.271	0.729
h4	ATL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$32.79	0.254	0.746
h4	DAL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$32.79	0.265	0.735
h4	DEN	2026-06-05	72°F or higher	NO	0.003	$6.59	0.957	0.043
h4	LAX	2026-06-05	68-69°F	NO	0.860	$32.79	0.028	0.972
h4	LAX	2026-06-05	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$32.79	0.071	0.929
h4	LAX	2026-06-05	72-73°F	NO	0.740	$32.79	0.167	0.833
h4	MIA	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$32.79	0.271	0.729
h4	MIA	2026-06-05	86-87°F	NO	0.900	$32.79	0.075	0.925
h4	SEA	2026-06-05	69°F or below	NO	0.017	$4.36	0.956	0.044
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-05	88-89°F	YES	0.100	$13.59	0.173	0.173
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-05	88°F or higher	YES	0.120	$23.37	0.241	0.241
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-05	80-81°F	YES	0.064	$19.15	0.169	0.169
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-05	82-83°F	YES	0.330	$9.85	0.398	0.398
baseline	ATL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$38.72	0.178	0.822
baseline	ATL	2026-06-06	88-89°F	NO	0.560	$22.70	0.313	0.687
baseline	CHI	2026-06-06	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$38.72	0.078	0.922
baseline	CHI	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$38.72	0.203	0.797
baseline	DAL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.650	$38.72	0.213	0.787
baseline	LAX	2026-06-06	70-71°F	NO	0.650	$38.72	0.194	0.806
baseline	MIA	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$38.72	0.148	0.852
baseline	MIA	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.460	$24.52	0.383	0.617
baseline	NYC	2026-06-06	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$30.22	0.208	0.792
h1	ATL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$48.77	0.178	0.822
h1	CHI	2026-06-06	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$48.77	0.078	0.922
h1	CHI	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$48.77	0.203	0.797
h1	DAL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.650	$48.77	0.213	0.787
h1	LAX	2026-06-06	70-71°F	NO	0.650	$48.77	0.194	0.806
h1	MIA	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$48.77	0.148	0.852
h1	NYC	2026-06-06	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$48.77	0.208	0.792
h1	SEA	2026-06-06	54-55°F	NO	0.870	$48.77	0.065	0.935
h2	CHI	2026-06-06	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$36.46	0.078	0.922
h2	MIA	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$36.46	0.148	0.852
h2	MIA	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.460	$23.09	0.383	0.617
h2	SEA	2026-06-06	54-55°F	NO	0.870	$36.46	0.065	0.935
h3	ATL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$39.69	0.178	0.822
h3	ATL	2026-06-06	88-89°F	NO	0.560	$23.28	0.313	0.687
h3	CHI	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$39.69	0.203	0.797
h3	DAL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.650	$39.69	0.213	0.787
h3	DEN	2026-06-06	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$24.08	0.303	0.697
h3	DEN	2026-06-06	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$18.17	0.328	0.672
h3	LAX	2026-06-06	68-69°F	NO	0.600	$39.69	0.087	0.913
h3	LAX	2026-06-06	70-71°F	NO	0.650	$39.69	0.194	0.806
h3	MIA	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.460	$25.13	0.383	0.617
h3	NYC	2026-06-06	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$28.42	0.208	0.792
h4	ATL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$30.84	0.178	0.822
h4	ATL	2026-06-06	88-89°F	NO	0.560	$18.08	0.313	0.687
h4	CHI	2026-06-06	80-81°F	NO	0.930	$30.84	0.027	0.973
h4	CHI	2026-06-06	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$30.84	0.078	0.922
h4	CHI	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$30.84	0.203	0.797
h4	DAL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.650	$30.84	0.213	0.787
h4	DEN	2026-06-06	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$18.71	0.303	0.697
h4	DEN	2026-06-06	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$14.12	0.328	0.672
h4	LAX	2026-06-06	66-67°F	NO	0.930	$30.84	0.034	0.966
h4	LAX	2026-06-06	68-69°F	NO	0.600	$10.76	0.087	0.913
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-06	90-91°F	YES	0.120	$23.02	0.247	0.247
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-06	86-87°F	YES	0.230	$16.50	0.312	0.312
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-06	88-89°F	YES	0.070	$25.68	0.218	0.218
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-06	90°F or higher	YES	0.016	$19.74	0.136	0.136
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-06	82-83°F	YES	0.130	$14.41	0.210	0.210
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-06	72-73°F	YES	0.150	$22.45	0.278	0.278
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-06	74-75°F	YES	0.032	$30.18	0.213	0.213
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-06	76-77°F	YES	0.007	$15.16	0.100	0.100
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-06	88-89°F	YES	0.170	$24.05	0.296	0.296
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-06	90-91°F	YES	0.014	$11.74	0.086	0.086
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-06	96-97°F	YES	0.010	$12.60	0.087	0.087
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-06	58-59°F	YES	0.310	$14.71	0.377	0.377

Settlements142 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.580	$37.43	-$37.82	LOSS	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$37.43	$18.13	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$42.75	$20.70	WIN	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.580	$38.85	-$39.26	LOSS	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$38.85	$18.81	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.580	$29.65	-$29.96	LOSS	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$29.65	$14.36	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-04	78-79°F	YES	0.030	$10.07	-$10.31	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-04	80-81°F	YES	0.120	$20.07	-$20.51	LOSS	82°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$37.43	$10.35	WIN	86°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$37.43	$20.72	WIN	86°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$42.75	$11.82	WIN	86°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$42.75	$23.66	WIN	86°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$38.15	$10.55	WIN	86°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$38.85	$21.50	WIN	86°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$29.65	$8.20	WIN	86°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$29.65	$16.41	WIN	86°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-04	88-89°F	YES	0.110	$12.70	-$12.98	LOSS	86°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.510	$25.01	-$25.31	LOSS	82°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.510	$25.96	-$26.27	LOSS	82°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.510	$17.88	-$18.10	LOSS	82°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.680	$37.43	$17.31	WIN	86°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-04	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$32.69	-$32.97	LOSS	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.680	$42.75	$19.78	WIN	86°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.680	$38.15	$17.65	WIN	86°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-04	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$33.32	-$33.60	LOSS	86°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.680	$38.85	$17.97	WIN	86°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-04	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$33.93	-$34.22	LOSS	86°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-04	88-89°F	YES	0.190	$18.37	-$18.74	LOSS	86°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-04	90-91°F	YES	0.039	$18.77	-$19.22	LOSS	86°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-04	66-67°F	NO	0.660	$33.66	$17.06	WIN	68°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-04	66-67°F	NO	0.660	$38.45	$19.48	WIN	68°F
h3	SEA	2026-06-04	66-67°F	NO	0.660	$17.81	$9.02	WIN	68°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-04	68-69°F	YES	0.300	$7.68	$17.79	WIN	68°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-04	70-71°F	NO	0.680	$38.85	-$39.16	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-04	72-73°F	NO	0.680	$38.85	$17.97	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-04	68-69°F	NO	0.950	$29.65	$1.52	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-04	70-71°F	NO	0.680	$29.65	-$29.88	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-04	72-73°F	NO	0.680	$29.65	$13.71	WIN	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-04	66°F or higher	NO	0.003	$5.95	-$6.10	LOSS	66°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-04	74°F or higher	NO	0.004	$5.82	-$5.96	LOSS	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.750	$47.90	$15.67	WIN	78°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.750	$51.40	$16.81	WIN	78°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.750	$50.14	$16.40	WIN	78°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-03	85°F or below	NO	0.070	$16.36	-$16.74	LOSS	85°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-03	85°F or below	NO	0.070	$17.56	-$17.96	LOSS	85°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-03	85°F or below	NO	0.070	$15.30	-$15.66	LOSS	85°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$47.90	$12.48	WIN	82°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$47.90	$28.91	WIN	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$51.40	$13.39	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$44.93	$11.71	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$44.93	$27.11	WIN	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$50.14	$30.26	WIN	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-03	82-83°F	NO	0.700	$4.31	-$4.34	LOSS	82°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$44.80	$11.67	WIN	82°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$44.80	$27.03	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-03	84-85°F	YES	0.060	$23.61	-$24.17	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-03	86°F or higher	YES	0.013	$19.26	-$19.73	LOSS	82°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-03	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$47.90	$7.63	WIN	66°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-03	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$51.40	$8.19	WIN	66°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-03	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$44.93	$7.16	WIN	66°F
h4	SEA	2026-06-03	62-63°F	NO	0.968	$44.80	$1.44	WIN	66°F
h4	SEA	2026-06-03	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$44.80	$7.14	WIN	66°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-03	66°F or higher	YES	0.820	$45.82	$9.85	WIN	66°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-03	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$19.18	$8.07	WIN	88°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-03	68-69°F	NO	0.710	$50.14	-$50.50	LOSS	68°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-03	70-71°F	NO	0.600	$50.14	$32.93	WIN	68°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-03	68-69°F	NO	0.710	$44.80	-$45.12	LOSS	68°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-03	70-71°F	NO	0.600	$44.80	$29.42	WIN	68°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-03	72-73°F	YES	0.180	$19.97	-$20.38	LOSS	68°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-03	74-75°F	YES	0.040	$42.48	-$43.50	LOSS	68°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-03	76°F or higher	YES	0.020	$36.60	-$37.50	LOSS	68°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-03	74°F or higher	NO	0.009	$7.72	-$7.91	LOSS	74°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-03	78°F or higher	NO	0.041	$8.82	-$9.03	LOSS	78°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$34.87	-$35.20	LOSS	72°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$42.47	-$42.87	LOSS	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$42.13	-$42.53	LOSS	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$33.86	-$34.19	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-01	74-75°F	YES	0.230	$13.46	-$13.72	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-01	76°F or higher	YES	0.160	$16.46	-$16.81	LOSS	72°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-01	94°F or higher	NO	0.170	$13.11	-$13.38	LOSS	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-01	94°F or higher	NO	0.170	$14.07	-$14.36	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-01	94°F or higher	NO	0.170	$12.73	-$13.00	LOSS	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$34.87	$13.32	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$37.43	$14.29	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$42.47	$16.22	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$42.13	-$42.44	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$42.13	$16.09	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$33.86	-$34.11	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.720	$33.86	$12.93	WIN	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$34.87	$25.93	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-01	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$34.87	-$35.04	LOSS	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$37.43	$27.83	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-01	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$37.43	-$37.61	LOSS	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-01	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$42.47	-$42.68	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$42.13	$31.33	WIN	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$33.86	$25.18	WIN	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-01	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$33.86	-$34.03	LOSS	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-01	94-95°F	NO	0.950	$33.86	$1.74	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-01	86-87°F	YES	0.036	$32.40	-$33.18	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-01	88-89°F	YES	0.260	$33.26	-$33.88	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.700	$34.87	$14.68	WIN	68°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$29.08	$16.81	WIN	68°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.700	$37.43	$15.76	WIN	68°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.700	$42.13	$17.74	WIN	68°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$35.14	$20.31	WIN	68°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-01	70-71°F	NO	0.700	$33.86	$14.26	WIN	68°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-01	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$17.41	$10.06	WIN	68°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-01	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$8.95	$4.53	WIN	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-01	76°F or higher	NO	0.040	$3.73	-$3.82	LOSS	76°F
baseline	ATL	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.820	$50.00	$10.75	WIN	74°F
h1	ATL	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.820	$50.00	$10.75	WIN	74°F
h2	ATL	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.820	$50.00	$10.75	WIN	74°F
h3	ATL	2026-05-31	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$33.90	-$34.16	LOSS	74°F
h4	ATL	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.820	$50.00	$10.75	WIN	74°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-05-31	76°F or higher	YES	0.430	$29.19	-$29.60	LOSS	74°F
baseline	DEN	2026-05-31	78°F or higher	NO	0.100	$50.00	-$51.12	LOSS	78°F
h4	DEN	2026-05-31	78°F or higher	NO	0.100	$50.00	-$51.12	LOSS	78°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-05-31	76-77°F	YES	0.080	$28.36	-$29.02	LOSS	78°F
baseline	LAX	2026-05-31	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$50.00	-$50.20	LOSS	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-05-31	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$50.00	-$50.20	LOSS	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-05-31	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$50.00	-$50.20	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-05-31	70-71°F	NO	0.840	$50.00	-$50.20	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-05-31	72°F or higher	YES	0.830	$50.00	-$50.21	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-05-31	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$50.00	$25.33	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-05-31	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$50.00	$25.33	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-05-31	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$50.00	$25.33	WIN	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-05-31	88-89°F	NO	0.660	$50.00	$25.33	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-05-31	92-93°F	YES	0.130	$26.98	$179.97	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.870	$50.00	$7.31	WIN	76°F
baseline	NYC	2026-05-31	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$50.00	$28.90	WIN	76°F
h1	NYC	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.870	$50.00	$7.31	WIN	76°F
h1	NYC	2026-05-31	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$50.00	$28.90	WIN	76°F
h2	NYC	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.870	$50.00	$7.31	WIN	76°F
h3	NYC	2026-05-31	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$50.00	$28.90	WIN	76°F
h3	NYC	2026-05-31	76-77°F	NO	0.650	$22.10	-$22.29	LOSS	76°F
h4	NYC	2026-05-31	72-73°F	NO	0.870	$50.00	$7.31	WIN	76°F
h4	NYC	2026-05-31	74-75°F	NO	0.630	$50.00	$28.90	WIN	76°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-05-31	78-79°F	YES	0.110	$34.37	-$35.14	LOSS	76°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-05-31	80-81°F	YES	0.017	$21.53	-$22.06	LOSS	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-05-31	66°F or higher	NO	0.004	$9.84	-$10.08	LOSS	66°F
h4	DAL	2026-05-31	92°F or higher	NO	0.130	$9.80	-$10.02	LOSS	92°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	4/30	no
CHI	4/30	no
DAL	4/30	no
DEN	4/30	no
LAX	4/30	no
MIA	4/30	no
NYC	4/30	no
SEA	2/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$365.50.