Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-315501 decisions20:02:22 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-08-02: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 38 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 4, 'h2': 7, 'h3': 9, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 36, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-08-03T20:00:01Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-08-03 20:02:22 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

2709

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$4,387.78

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 2709 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	572	9	392	60%	-0.0765	-0.0806	-0.1564	-$741.80	$9,702
baseline	secondary	FAIL	518	9	352	65%	-0.0861	-0.0897	-0.0605	-$786.32	$9,135
h1	secondary	FAIL	419	4	320	73%	-0.0312	-0.0335	-0.0759	-$457.68	$14,649
h2	secondary	FAIL	397	7	290	71%	-0.0596	-0.0635	-0.0604	-$574.99	$9,651
h4	secondary	FAIL	547	9	282	65%	-0.1064	-0.1107	-0.0614	-$846.93	$7,963
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions38 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-08-03	86-87°F	NO	0.640	$8.05	0.256	0.744
baseline	CHI	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$8.05	0.169	0.831
baseline	CHI	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.550	$4.66	0.304	0.696
baseline	DEN	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.520	$8.05	0.324	0.676
baseline	DEN	2026-08-03	102-103°F	NO	0.730	$8.05	0.133	0.867
baseline	NYC	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$8.05	0.116	0.884
baseline	NYC	2026-08-03	82-83°F	NO	0.620	$8.05	0.253	0.747
baseline	SEA	2026-08-03	76-77°F	NO	0.490	$8.05	0.378	0.622
baseline	SEA	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.720	$3.38	0.217	0.783
h1	CHI	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$22.49	0.169	0.831
h1	DEN	2026-08-03	102-103°F	NO	0.730	$22.49	0.133	0.867
h1	NYC	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$22.49	0.116	0.884
h1	SEA	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.720	$22.49	0.217	0.783
h2	ATL	2026-08-03	86-87°F	NO	0.640	$16.89	0.256	0.744
h2	CHI	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$16.89	0.169	0.831
h2	CHI	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.550	$9.78	0.304	0.696
h2	DEN	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.520	$16.89	0.324	0.676
h2	DEN	2026-08-03	102-103°F	NO	0.730	$16.89	0.133	0.867
h2	NYC	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$16.89	0.116	0.884
h2	NYC	2026-08-03	82-83°F	NO	0.620	$16.89	0.253	0.747
h3	ATL	2026-08-03	86-87°F	NO	0.640	$9.45	0.256	0.744
h3	CHI	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$9.45	0.169	0.831
h3	CHI	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.550	$5.48	0.304	0.696
h3	DAL	2026-08-03	98-99°F	NO	0.610	$9.45	0.180	0.820
h3	DAL	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.650	$3.27	0.305	0.695
h3	DEN	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.520	$9.45	0.324	0.676
h3	DEN	2026-08-03	102-103°F	NO	0.730	$9.45	0.133	0.867
h3	LAX	2026-08-03	76-77°F	NO	0.710	$9.45	0.040	0.960
h3	LAX	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.560	$9.45	0.101	0.899
h4	ATL	2026-08-03	86-87°F	NO	0.640	$5.43	0.256	0.744
h4	CHI	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$5.43	0.169	0.831
h4	CHI	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.550	$3.14	0.304	0.696
h4	DAL	2026-08-03	98-99°F	NO	0.610	$5.43	0.180	0.820
h4	DAL	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.650	$1.88	0.305	0.695
h4	DEN	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.520	$5.43	0.324	0.676
h4	DEN	2026-08-03	102-103°F	NO	0.730	$5.43	0.133	0.867
h4	LAX	2026-08-03	76-77°F	NO	0.710	$5.43	0.040	0.960
h4	LAX	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.560	$5.43	0.101	0.899

Settlements2709 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$9.01	$3.44	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$22.93	$8.76	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$8.31	$3.17	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-02	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$5.33	$0.64	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$5.33	$2.04	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$9.01	$3.79	WIN	76°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$5.75	-$5.81	LOSS	76°F
h1	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$22.93	$9.65	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$19.54	$8.23	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$12.47	-$12.60	LOSS	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$8.31	$3.50	WIN	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$5.30	-$5.36	LOSS	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$5.33	$2.24	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$3.40	-$3.44	LOSS	76°F
baseline	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$9.01	$7.27	WIN	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$19.54	$15.77	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$8.31	$6.70	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$5.33	$4.30	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$9.01	-$9.10	LOSS	100°F
h1	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$22.93	-$23.15	LOSS	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$8.31	-$8.39	LOSS	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-02	102-103°F	NO	0.640	$8.31	$4.60	WIN	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$5.33	-$5.38	LOSS	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-02	102-103°F	NO	0.640	$5.33	$2.95	WIN	100°F
baseline	MIA	2026-08-02	90-91°F	NO	0.580	$9.01	-$9.10	LOSS	90°F
h1	MIA	2026-08-02	90-91°F	NO	0.580	$22.93	-$23.17	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-08-02	90-91°F	NO	0.580	$3.01	-$3.04	LOSS	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$9.01	$1.94	WIN	84°F
h1	NYC	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$22.93	$4.93	WIN	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$19.54	$4.20	WIN	84°F
baseline	SEA	2026-08-02	68-69°F	NO	0.760	$9.01	-$9.06	LOSS	68°F
h1	SEA	2026-08-02	68-69°F	NO	0.760	$22.93	-$23.07	LOSS	68°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-02	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$8.31	-$8.37	LOSS	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.470	$8.31	$9.26	WIN	78°F
h4	LAX	2026-08-02	77°F or below	NO	0.960	$5.33	$0.22	WIN	78°F
h4	LAX	2026-08-02	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$1.93	-$1.94	LOSS	78°F
baseline	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$8.96	-$9.02	LOSS	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$8.96	$1.31	WIN	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$23.20	-$23.36	LOSS	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$23.20	$3.39	WIN	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$16.24	-$16.36	LOSS	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$16.24	$2.37	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.710	$1.03	$0.41	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$9.33	-$9.40	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$5.63	-$5.67	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$5.63	$0.82	WIN	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-01	90-91°F	NO	0.950	$5.63	$0.29	WIN	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$8.96	$4.54	WIN	72°F
h1	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$23.20	$11.75	WIN	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$9.33	$4.73	WIN	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-01	72-73°F	NO	0.640	$5.15	-$5.19	LOSS	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$5.63	$2.85	WIN	72°F
baseline	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$8.96	-$9.01	LOSS	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$23.20	-$23.32	LOSS	96°F
h2	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$16.24	-$16.33	LOSS	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-08-01	98-99°F	NO	0.430	$9.33	$12.24	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$5.63	-$5.66	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-01	98-99°F	NO	0.430	$5.63	$7.38	WIN	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$8.96	-$9.06	LOSS	92°F
h2	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$16.24	-$16.42	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$9.33	-$9.43	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$9.33	$8.50	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$5.63	-$5.69	LOSS	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$5.63	$5.13	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$8.89	$4.50	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$23.01	$11.66	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$1.80	-$1.82	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$9.26	$4.69	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$8.96	$3.77	WIN	86°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.550	$8.32	-$8.41	LOSS	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$23.20	$9.77	WIN	86°F
h3	NYC	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$1.43	$0.60	WIN	86°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-01	80-81°F	NO	0.500	$9.33	$9.22	WIN	78°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$10.10	-$10.18	LOSS	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-31	92-93°F	NO	0.510	$10.10	$9.58	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$26.03	-$26.24	LOSS	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$8.05	-$8.11	LOSS	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-31	92-93°F	NO	0.510	$8.05	$7.63	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$5.72	-$5.77	LOSS	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-31	92-93°F	NO	0.510	$5.72	$5.43	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$10.10	$3.67	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$26.03	$9.45	WIN	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$19.67	$7.14	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-31	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$8.05	-$8.10	LOSS	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$8.05	$2.92	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	77°F or below	NO	0.970	$5.72	$0.17	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$5.72	$1.49	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$5.72	-$5.76	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$5.72	$2.08	WIN	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$10.10	$2.47	WIN	102°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$10.10	-$10.20	LOSS	102°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$26.03	$6.38	WIN	102°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$26.03	-$26.31	LOSS	102°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$19.67	$4.82	WIN	102°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$8.05	-$8.13	LOSS	102°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$5.72	$1.40	WIN	102°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$5.72	-$5.78	LOSS	102°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$10.10	-$10.14	LOSS	90°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$26.03	-$26.15	LOSS	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$19.67	-$19.75	LOSS	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-31	88-89°F	NO	0.530	$8.05	$7.04	WIN	90°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-31	76-77°F	NO	0.790	$10.10	$2.63	WIN	78°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-31	76-77°F	NO	0.790	$26.03	$6.78	WIN	78°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-31	76-77°F	NO	0.790	$19.67	$5.12	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-31	78-79°F	NO	0.570	$8.05	-$8.13	LOSS	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-31	80-81°F	NO	0.740	$4.44	$1.53	WIN	78°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-31	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$7.00	$6.37	WIN	96°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-31	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$3.60	$3.28	WIN	96°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-31	84-85°F	NO	0.590	$3.10	-$3.13	LOSS	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-31	84-85°F	NO	0.590	$19.67	-$19.87	LOSS	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-31	86-87°F	NO	0.650	$19.27	$10.21	WIN	84°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-31	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$26.03	$7.20	WIN	82°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.570	$7.43	-$7.51	LOSS	82°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-31	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$19.67	$5.44	WIN	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$9.76	-$9.80	LOSS	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$24.83	-$24.93	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$21.68	-$21.77	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$8.74	$6.77	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$5.53	-$5.55	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$5.53	$4.28	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$9.76	$2.39	WIN	86°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$24.83	$6.08	WIN	86°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$21.68	$5.31	WIN	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-30	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$8.74	-$8.83	LOSS	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$6.07	$2.56	WIN	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$5.53	$1.35	WIN	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-30	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$5.53	-$5.59	LOSS	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$3.84	$1.62	WIN	86°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$9.76	-$9.82	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$24.83	-$24.98	LOSS	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$21.68	-$21.81	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-30	100-101°F	NO	0.540	$8.74	$7.34	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$5.53	-$5.56	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-30	100-101°F	NO	0.540	$5.53	$4.65	WIN	98°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-30	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$9.76	$1.43	WIN	76°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-30	78-79°F	NO	0.650	$9.76	$5.17	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-30	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$24.83	$3.63	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-30	78-79°F	NO	0.650	$24.83	$13.15	WIN	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-30	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$21.68	$3.17	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-30	76-77°F	NO	0.610	$8.74	-$8.82	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-30	78-79°F	NO	0.650	$8.74	$4.63	WIN	76°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$9.76	$1.55	WIN	96°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$24.83	$3.96	WIN	96°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$21.68	$3.45	WIN	96°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-30	94-95°F	NO	0.480	$8.74	$9.35	WIN	96°F
baseline	SEA	2026-07-30	76-77°F	NO	0.560	$4.98	$3.86	WIN	78°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.470	$8.74	$9.74	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.470	$5.53	$6.16	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-30	94-95°F	NO	0.920	$1.69	-$1.69	LOSS	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-30	76-77°F	NO	0.670	$2.17	-$2.19	LOSS	76°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$10.07	$7.49	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$24.78	$18.42	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$9.57	$7.11	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$6.06	$4.51	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$10.07	$2.47	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$24.78	$6.07	WIN	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$18.20	$4.46	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$9.57	-$9.68	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$6.06	$1.48	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$6.06	-$6.13	LOSS	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-29	100-101°F	NO	0.670	$10.07	$4.88	WIN	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-29	100-101°F	NO	0.670	$24.78	$12.00	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-29	98-99°F	NO	0.670	$9.57	-$9.65	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-29	100-101°F	NO	0.670	$9.57	$4.63	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-29	98-99°F	NO	0.670	$6.06	-$6.11	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-29	100-101°F	NO	0.670	$6.06	$2.93	WIN	98°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-29	94-95°F	NO	0.490	$9.44	-$9.56	LOSS	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-29	94-95°F	NO	0.490	$8.97	-$9.08	LOSS	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-29	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$6.42	$2.10	WIN	94°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$10.07	$2.31	WIN	80°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$10.07	$2.79	WIN	80°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$10.07	-$10.13	LOSS	80°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$24.78	$5.69	WIN	80°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$24.78	$6.85	WIN	80°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$24.78	-$24.92	LOSS	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$18.20	$4.18	WIN	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$18.20	$5.03	WIN	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$18.20	-$18.31	LOSS	80°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$1.60	-$1.62	LOSS	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-29	92-93°F	NO	0.790	$5.16	$1.34	WIN	90°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$9.57	$3.65	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.500	$9.57	-$9.69	LOSS	78°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-29	74-75°F	NO	0.970	$6.06	$0.18	WIN	78°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$6.06	$2.31	WIN	78°F
h3	SEA	2026-07-29	76-77°F	NO	0.630	$2.15	$1.24	WIN	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$10.42	-$10.49	LOSS	94°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$10.42	$6.84	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$26.39	-$26.57	LOSS	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$20.12	-$20.26	LOSS	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$20.12	$13.22	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$9.52	-$9.59	LOSS	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$9.52	$6.25	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$6.19	-$6.23	LOSS	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-28	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$6.19	$4.07	WIN	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$10.42	-$10.49	LOSS	78°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$10.42	$7.43	WIN	78°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$26.39	-$26.59	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$20.12	-$20.28	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-28	80-81°F	NO	0.580	$20.12	$14.36	WIN	78°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-28	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$9.52	-$9.59	LOSS	78°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	62/30	yes
CHI	61/30	yes
DAL	61/30	yes
DEN	62/30	yes
LAX	62/30	yes
MIA	62/30	yes
NYC	59/30	yes
SEA	43/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$4,387.78.