Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-315677 decisions02:03:28 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-08-04: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 31 positions {'baseline': 7, 'h1': 4, 'h2': 4, 'h3': 8, 'h4': 8, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 38, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-08-05T02:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 24 snapshots written
rendered 2026-08-05 02:03:28 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

2747

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$4,376.29

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 2747 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	581	17	397	60%	-0.0780	-0.0822	-0.1573	-$762.83	$9,777
baseline	secondary	FAIL	527	13	357	65%	-0.0843	-0.0879	-0.0573	-$775.89	$9,200
h1	secondary	FAIL	423	7	324	73%	-0.0289	-0.0311	-0.0733	-$425.31	$14,739
h2	secondary	FAIL	404	10	294	71%	-0.0587	-0.0626	-0.0569	-$573.18	$9,762
h4	secondary	FAIL	556	17	287	65%	-0.1073	-0.1116	-0.0636	-$859.00	$8,006
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions64 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-08-04	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$4.50	0.310	0.690
baseline	ATL	2026-08-04	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$7.44	0.167	0.833
baseline	CHI	2026-08-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$7.44	0.061	0.939
baseline	MIA	2026-08-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$7.44	0.078	0.922
baseline	NYC	2026-08-04	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$3.96	0.296	0.704
baseline	SEA	2026-08-04	84-85°F	NO	0.570	$6.03	0.345	0.655
h1	ATL	2026-08-04	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$22.59	0.167	0.833
h1	CHI	2026-08-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$22.59	0.061	0.939
h1	MIA	2026-08-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$22.59	0.078	0.922
h2	ATL	2026-08-04	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$9.47	0.310	0.690
h2	ATL	2026-08-04	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$15.65	0.167	0.833
h2	CHI	2026-08-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$15.65	0.061	0.939
h2	MIA	2026-08-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$15.65	0.078	0.922
h2	NYC	2026-08-04	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$8.33	0.296	0.704
h2	SEA	2026-08-04	84-85°F	NO	0.570	$12.68	0.345	0.655
h3	ATL	2026-08-04	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$5.53	0.310	0.690
h3	ATL	2026-08-04	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$9.13	0.167	0.833
h3	CHI	2026-08-04	84-85°F	NO	0.530	$9.13	0.168	0.832
h3	DAL	2026-08-04	100-101°F	NO	0.470	$9.13	0.214	0.786
h3	DEN	2026-08-04	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$9.13	0.116	0.884
h3	LAX	2026-08-04	74-75°F	NO	0.730	$9.13	0.037	0.963
h3	LAX	2026-08-04	76-77°F	NO	0.460	$9.13	0.095	0.905
h3	MIA	2026-08-04	90-91°F	NO	0.500	$9.13	0.279	0.721
h3	NYC	2026-08-04	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$3.61	0.296	0.704
h4	ATL	2026-08-04	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$3.32	0.310	0.690
h4	ATL	2026-08-04	88-89°F	NO	0.740	$5.48	0.167	0.833
h4	CHI	2026-08-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$5.48	0.061	0.939
h4	CHI	2026-08-04	84-85°F	NO	0.530	$5.48	0.168	0.832
h4	DAL	2026-08-04	98-99°F	NO	0.870	$5.48	0.086	0.914
h4	DAL	2026-08-04	100-101°F	NO	0.470	$5.48	0.214	0.786
h4	DEN	2026-08-04	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$5.48	0.116	0.884
h4	DEN	2026-08-04	82-83°F	NO	0.930	$5.48	0.033	0.967
h4	LAX	2026-08-04	74-75°F	NO	0.730	$2.17	0.037	0.963
baseline	ATL	2026-08-05	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$9.18	0.295	0.705
baseline	CHI	2026-08-05	75°F or below	NO	0.870	$9.35	0.012	0.988
baseline	CHI	2026-08-05	80-81°F	NO	0.810	$9.35	0.132	0.868
baseline	MIA	2026-08-05	88-89°F	NO	0.510	$6.44	0.405	0.595
baseline	NYC	2026-08-05	80-81°F	NO	0.690	$9.35	0.236	0.764
baseline	NYC	2026-08-05	82-83°F	NO	0.610	$6.27	0.300	0.700
baseline	SEA	2026-08-05	90-91°F	NO	0.810	$9.35	0.046	0.954
h1	CHI	2026-08-05	75°F or below	NO	0.870	$25.33	0.012	0.988
h1	CHI	2026-08-05	80-81°F	NO	0.810	$25.33	0.132	0.868
h1	NYC	2026-08-05	80-81°F	NO	0.690	$25.33	0.236	0.764
h1	SEA	2026-08-05	90-91°F	NO	0.810	$25.33	0.046	0.954
h2	ATL	2026-08-05	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$17.11	0.295	0.705
h2	CHI	2026-08-05	75°F or below	NO	0.870	$17.44	0.012	0.988
h2	CHI	2026-08-05	80-81°F	NO	0.810	$17.44	0.132	0.868
h2	SEA	2026-08-05	90-91°F	NO	0.810	$17.44	0.046	0.954
h3	ATL	2026-08-05	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$8.01	0.295	0.705
h3	CHI	2026-08-05	76-77°F	NO	0.750	$8.17	0.016	0.984
h3	CHI	2026-08-05	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$8.17	0.046	0.954
h3	DAL	2026-08-05	98-99°F	NO	0.710	$8.17	0.089	0.911
h3	DAL	2026-08-05	100-101°F	NO	0.490	$8.17	0.221	0.779
h3	DEN	2026-08-05	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$8.17	0.157	0.843
h3	LAX	2026-08-05	74-75°F	NO	0.710	$8.17	0.045	0.955
h3	LAX	2026-08-05	76-77°F	NO	0.480	$8.17	0.114	0.886
h4	ATL	2026-08-05	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$4.75	0.295	0.705
h4	CHI	2026-08-05	75°F or below	NO	0.870	$4.84	0.012	0.988
h4	CHI	2026-08-05	76-77°F	NO	0.750	$4.84	0.016	0.984
h4	CHI	2026-08-05	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$4.84	0.046	0.954
h4	CHI	2026-08-05	80-81°F	NO	0.810	$4.84	0.132	0.868
h4	DAL	2026-08-05	98-99°F	NO	0.710	$4.84	0.089	0.911
h4	DAL	2026-08-05	100-101°F	NO	0.490	$4.84	0.221	0.779
h4	DEN	2026-08-05	86-87°F	NO	0.600	$4.84	0.157	0.843

Settlements2747 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-08-03	86-87°F	NO	0.640	$8.05	-$8.12	LOSS	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-08-03	86-87°F	NO	0.640	$16.89	-$17.04	LOSS	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-08-03	86-87°F	NO	0.640	$9.45	-$9.54	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-03	86-87°F	NO	0.640	$5.43	-$5.47	LOSS	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$8.05	$3.23	WIN	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.550	$4.66	$3.76	WIN	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$22.49	$9.02	WIN	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$16.89	$6.78	WIN	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.550	$9.78	$7.90	WIN	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$9.45	$3.79	WIN	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.550	$5.48	$4.42	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.710	$5.43	$2.18	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.550	$3.14	$2.54	WIN	82°F
baseline	DEN	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.520	$8.05	-$8.14	LOSS	100°F
baseline	DEN	2026-08-03	102-103°F	NO	0.730	$8.05	$2.92	WIN	100°F
h1	DEN	2026-08-03	102-103°F	NO	0.730	$22.49	$8.17	WIN	100°F
h2	DEN	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.520	$16.89	-$17.09	LOSS	100°F
h2	DEN	2026-08-03	102-103°F	NO	0.730	$16.89	$6.13	WIN	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.520	$9.45	-$9.57	LOSS	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-03	102-103°F	NO	0.730	$9.45	$3.43	WIN	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.520	$5.43	-$5.49	LOSS	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-03	102-103°F	NO	0.730	$5.43	$1.97	WIN	100°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$8.05	$2.36	WIN	84°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-03	82-83°F	NO	0.620	$8.05	$4.86	WIN	84°F
h1	NYC	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$22.49	$6.59	WIN	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-08-03	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$16.89	$4.95	WIN	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-08-03	82-83°F	NO	0.620	$16.89	$10.19	WIN	84°F
baseline	SEA	2026-08-03	76-77°F	NO	0.490	$8.05	$8.27	WIN	74°F
baseline	SEA	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.720	$3.38	$1.29	WIN	74°F
h1	SEA	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.720	$22.49	$8.59	WIN	74°F
h3	DAL	2026-08-03	98-99°F	NO	0.610	$9.45	-$9.54	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.650	$3.27	$1.73	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-03	98-99°F	NO	0.610	$5.43	-$5.48	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-03	100-101°F	NO	0.650	$1.88	$0.99	WIN	98°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-03	76-77°F	NO	0.710	$9.45	$3.79	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.560	$9.45	-$9.56	LOSS	78°F
h4	LAX	2026-08-03	76-77°F	NO	0.710	$5.43	$2.18	WIN	78°F
h4	LAX	2026-08-03	78-79°F	NO	0.560	$5.43	-$5.48	LOSS	78°F
baseline	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$9.01	$3.44	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$22.93	$8.76	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$8.31	$3.17	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-02	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$5.33	$0.64	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-02	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$5.33	$2.04	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$9.01	$3.79	WIN	76°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$5.75	-$5.81	LOSS	76°F
h1	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$22.93	$9.65	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$19.54	$8.23	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$12.47	-$12.60	LOSS	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$8.31	$3.50	WIN	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$5.30	-$5.36	LOSS	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-02	74-75°F	NO	0.700	$5.33	$2.24	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-02	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$3.40	-$3.44	LOSS	76°F
baseline	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$9.01	$7.27	WIN	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$19.54	$15.77	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$8.31	$6.70	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-02	96-97°F	NO	0.550	$5.33	$4.30	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$9.01	-$9.10	LOSS	100°F
h1	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$22.93	-$23.15	LOSS	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$8.31	-$8.39	LOSS	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-02	102-103°F	NO	0.640	$8.31	$4.60	WIN	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-02	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$5.33	-$5.38	LOSS	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-02	102-103°F	NO	0.640	$5.33	$2.95	WIN	100°F
baseline	MIA	2026-08-02	90-91°F	NO	0.580	$9.01	-$9.10	LOSS	90°F
h1	MIA	2026-08-02	90-91°F	NO	0.580	$22.93	-$23.17	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-08-02	90-91°F	NO	0.580	$3.01	-$3.04	LOSS	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$9.01	$1.94	WIN	84°F
h1	NYC	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$22.93	$4.93	WIN	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$19.54	$4.20	WIN	84°F
baseline	SEA	2026-08-02	68-69°F	NO	0.760	$9.01	-$9.06	LOSS	68°F
h1	SEA	2026-08-02	68-69°F	NO	0.760	$22.93	-$23.07	LOSS	68°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-02	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$8.31	-$8.37	LOSS	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-02	80-81°F	NO	0.470	$8.31	$9.26	WIN	78°F
h4	LAX	2026-08-02	77°F or below	NO	0.960	$5.33	$0.22	WIN	78°F
h4	LAX	2026-08-02	78-79°F	NO	0.700	$1.93	-$1.94	LOSS	78°F
baseline	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$8.96	-$9.02	LOSS	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$8.96	$1.31	WIN	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$23.20	-$23.36	LOSS	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$23.20	$3.39	WIN	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$16.24	-$16.36	LOSS	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$16.24	$2.37	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.710	$1.03	$0.41	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$9.33	-$9.40	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$5.63	-$5.67	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-01	88-89°F	NO	0.870	$5.63	$0.82	WIN	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-08-01	90-91°F	NO	0.950	$5.63	$0.29	WIN	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$8.96	$4.54	WIN	72°F
h1	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$23.20	$11.75	WIN	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$9.33	$4.73	WIN	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-08-01	72-73°F	NO	0.640	$5.15	-$5.19	LOSS	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-08-01	70-71°F	NO	0.660	$5.63	$2.85	WIN	72°F
baseline	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$8.96	-$9.01	LOSS	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$23.20	-$23.32	LOSS	96°F
h2	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$16.24	-$16.33	LOSS	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-08-01	98-99°F	NO	0.430	$9.33	$12.24	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-01	96-97°F	NO	0.790	$5.63	-$5.66	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-08-01	98-99°F	NO	0.430	$5.63	$7.38	WIN	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$8.96	-$9.06	LOSS	92°F
h2	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$16.24	-$16.42	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$9.33	-$9.43	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$9.33	$8.50	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$5.63	-$5.69	LOSS	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$5.63	$5.13	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$8.89	$4.50	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$23.01	$11.66	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-08-01	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$1.80	-$1.82	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-08-01	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$9.26	$4.69	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$8.96	$3.77	WIN	86°F
baseline	NYC	2026-08-01	86-87°F	NO	0.550	$8.32	-$8.41	LOSS	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$23.20	$9.77	WIN	86°F
h3	NYC	2026-08-01	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$1.43	$0.60	WIN	86°F
h3	LAX	2026-08-01	80-81°F	NO	0.500	$9.33	$9.22	WIN	78°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$10.10	-$10.18	LOSS	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-31	92-93°F	NO	0.510	$10.10	$9.58	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$26.03	-$26.24	LOSS	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$8.05	-$8.11	LOSS	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-31	92-93°F	NO	0.510	$8.05	$7.63	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$5.72	-$5.77	LOSS	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-31	92-93°F	NO	0.510	$5.72	$5.43	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$10.10	$3.67	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$26.03	$9.45	WIN	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$19.67	$7.14	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-31	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$8.05	-$8.10	LOSS	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$8.05	$2.92	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	77°F or below	NO	0.970	$5.72	$0.17	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$5.72	$1.49	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	80-81°F	NO	0.710	$5.72	-$5.76	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$5.72	$2.08	WIN	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$10.10	$2.47	WIN	102°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$10.10	-$10.20	LOSS	102°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$26.03	$6.38	WIN	102°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$26.03	-$26.31	LOSS	102°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$19.67	$4.82	WIN	102°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$8.05	-$8.13	LOSS	102°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-31	100-101°F	NO	0.800	$5.72	$1.40	WIN	102°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-31	102-103°F	NO	0.580	$5.72	-$5.78	LOSS	102°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$10.10	-$10.14	LOSS	90°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$26.03	-$26.15	LOSS	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-31	90-91°F	NO	0.820	$19.67	-$19.75	LOSS	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-31	88-89°F	NO	0.530	$8.05	$7.04	WIN	90°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-31	76-77°F	NO	0.790	$10.10	$2.63	WIN	78°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-31	76-77°F	NO	0.790	$26.03	$6.78	WIN	78°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-31	76-77°F	NO	0.790	$19.67	$5.12	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-31	78-79°F	NO	0.570	$8.05	-$8.13	LOSS	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-31	80-81°F	NO	0.740	$4.44	$1.53	WIN	78°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-31	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$7.00	$6.37	WIN	96°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-31	94-95°F	NO	0.520	$3.60	$3.28	WIN	96°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-31	84-85°F	NO	0.590	$3.10	-$3.13	LOSS	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-31	84-85°F	NO	0.590	$19.67	-$19.87	LOSS	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-31	86-87°F	NO	0.650	$19.27	$10.21	WIN	84°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-31	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$26.03	$7.20	WIN	82°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-31	82-83°F	NO	0.570	$7.43	-$7.51	LOSS	82°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-31	84-85°F	NO	0.780	$19.67	$5.44	WIN	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$9.76	-$9.80	LOSS	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$24.83	-$24.93	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$21.68	-$21.77	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$8.74	$6.77	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.840	$5.53	-$5.55	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$5.53	$4.28	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$9.76	$2.39	WIN	86°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$24.83	$6.08	WIN	86°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$21.68	$5.31	WIN	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-30	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$8.74	-$8.83	LOSS	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$6.07	$2.56	WIN	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-30	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$5.53	$1.35	WIN	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-30	86-87°F	NO	0.580	$5.53	-$5.59	LOSS	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-30	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$3.84	$1.62	WIN	86°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$9.76	-$9.82	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$24.83	-$24.98	LOSS	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$21.68	-$21.81	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-30	100-101°F	NO	0.540	$8.74	$7.34	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-30	98-99°F	NO	0.770	$5.53	-$5.56	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-30	100-101°F	NO	0.540	$5.53	$4.65	WIN	98°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-30	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$9.76	$1.43	WIN	76°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-30	78-79°F	NO	0.650	$9.76	$5.17	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-30	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$24.83	$3.63	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-30	78-79°F	NO	0.650	$24.83	$13.15	WIN	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-30	74-75°F	NO	0.870	$21.68	$3.17	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-30	76-77°F	NO	0.610	$8.74	-$8.82	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-30	78-79°F	NO	0.650	$8.74	$4.63	WIN	76°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$9.76	$1.55	WIN	96°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$24.83	$3.96	WIN	96°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.860	$21.68	$3.45	WIN	96°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-30	94-95°F	NO	0.480	$8.74	$9.35	WIN	96°F
baseline	SEA	2026-07-30	76-77°F	NO	0.560	$4.98	$3.86	WIN	78°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.470	$8.74	$9.74	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-30	92-93°F	NO	0.470	$5.53	$6.16	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-30	94-95°F	NO	0.920	$1.69	-$1.69	LOSS	94°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-30	76-77°F	NO	0.670	$2.17	-$2.19	LOSS	76°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$10.07	$7.49	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$24.78	$18.42	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$9.57	$7.11	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-29	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$6.06	$4.51	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$10.07	$2.47	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$24.78	$6.07	WIN	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$18.20	$4.46	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$9.57	-$9.68	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-29	78-79°F	NO	0.800	$6.06	$1.48	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-29	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$6.06	-$6.13	LOSS	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-29	100-101°F	NO	0.670	$10.07	$4.88	WIN	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-29	100-101°F	NO	0.670	$24.78	$12.00	WIN	98°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	63/30	yes
CHI	62/30	yes
DAL	62/30	yes
DEN	63/30	yes
LAX	63/30	yes
MIA	62/30	yes
NYC	60/30	yes
SEA	44/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$4,376.29.