Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-311898 decisions08:03:16 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-06-22: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 48 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 7, 'h2': 7, 'h3': 8, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 8}
settle▸ [settle] settled 52, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-06-23T08:00:03Z] forward-collection done: 19 snapshots written
rendered 2026-06-23 08:03:16 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

1002

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$2,259.15

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 1002 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	182	8	134	62%	-0.0527	-0.0608	-0.0834	-$259.63	$4,925
baseline	secondary	FAIL	166	9	115	65%	-0.0760	-0.0831	-0.0033	-$355.69	$4,678
h1	secondary	FAIL	135	7	105	73%	-0.0132	-0.0194	-0.0279	-$63.53	$4,812
h2	secondary	FAIL	117	7	90	71%	-0.0504	-0.0597	-0.0409	-$201.44	$3,998
h4	secondary	FAIL	188	9	105	66%	-0.0948	-0.1022	+0.0772	-$436.99	$4,608
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	214	8	122	9%	-0.5956	-0.7217	-0.0917	-$941.89	$1,582

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions48 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$22.83	0.117	0.883
baseline	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$22.83	0.268	0.732
baseline	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$22.83	0.247	0.753
baseline	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$22.83	0.140	0.860
baseline	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$20.48	0.283	0.717
baseline	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$22.83	0.094	0.906
baseline	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$22.83	0.076	0.924
baseline	NYC	2026-06-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$22.83	0.097	0.903
baseline	NYC	2026-06-23	76-77°F	NO	0.660	$2.35	0.227	0.773
h1	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$33.81	0.117	0.883
h1	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$33.81	0.247	0.753
h1	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$33.81	0.140	0.860
h1	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$33.81	0.094	0.906
h1	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$33.81	0.076	0.924
h1	NYC	2026-06-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$33.81	0.097	0.903
h1	NYC	2026-06-23	76-77°F	NO	0.660	$33.81	0.227	0.773
h2	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$30.87	0.117	0.883
h2	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$30.87	0.268	0.732
h2	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$30.87	0.140	0.860
h2	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$27.69	0.283	0.717
h2	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$30.87	0.094	0.906
h2	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$30.87	0.076	0.924
h2	NYC	2026-06-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$30.87	0.097	0.903
h3	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$29.07	0.268	0.732
h3	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$29.07	0.247	0.753
h3	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$26.07	0.283	0.717
h3	DEN	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.710	$7.67	0.270	0.730
h3	LAX	2026-06-23	70-71°F	NO	0.430	$29.07	0.175	0.825
h3	MIA	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.460	$29.07	0.321	0.679
h3	NYC	2026-06-23	76-77°F	NO	0.660	$29.07	0.227	0.773
h3	SEA	2026-06-23	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$2.63	0.362	0.638
h4	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$20.42	0.117	0.883
h4	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$20.42	0.268	0.732
h4	CHI	2026-06-23	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$20.42	0.105	0.895
h4	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$20.42	0.247	0.753
h4	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$20.42	0.140	0.860
h4	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$18.32	0.283	0.717
h4	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$20.42	0.094	0.906
h4	DEN	2026-06-23	86-87°F	NO	0.950	$20.42	0.027	0.973
h4	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$2.10	0.076	0.924
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-23	88-89°F	YES	0.048	$1.67	0.159	0.159
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-23	76-77°F	YES	0.100	$1.20	0.177	0.177
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-23	80-81°F	YES	0.230	$1.11	0.351	0.351
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-23	76-77°F	YES	0.009	$1.54	0.114	0.114
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-23	88-89°F	YES	0.060	$1.05	0.130	0.130
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-23	90-91°F	YES	0.260	$1.74	0.365	0.365
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-23	80-81°F	YES	0.070	$1.90	0.193	0.193
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-23	84-85°F	YES	0.200	$1.34	0.277	0.277

Settlements1002 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$26.13	$11.00	WIN	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$21.06	-$21.25	LOSS	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$33.10	$13.94	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$27.31	$11.50	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$22.01	-$22.20	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$28.60	$12.04	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$23.05	-$23.25	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-22	84-85°F	NO	0.934	$21.43	$1.48	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$21.43	$9.02	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$17.27	-$17.42	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	YES	0.200	$1.77	-$1.81	LOSS	88°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$26.13	$6.40	WIN	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$22.49	$9.47	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$33.10	$8.11	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$28.50	$12.00	WIN	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$27.31	$6.69	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$24.62	$10.37	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$21.43	$5.25	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$18.45	$7.77	WIN	94°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-22	96-97°F	YES	0.120	$1.07	-$1.09	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.680	$26.13	-$26.34	LOSS	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.680	$33.10	-$33.37	LOSS	88°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.680	$28.60	-$28.83	LOSS	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.680	$21.43	-$21.60	LOSS	88°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-22	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$26.13	$9.98	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-22	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$33.10	$12.64	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-22	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$27.31	$10.43	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-22	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$28.60	$10.92	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-22	70-71°F	NO	0.460	$28.60	-$28.98	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-22	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$21.43	$8.18	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-22	70-71°F	NO	0.460	$16.43	-$16.65	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-22	72-73°F	YES	0.140	$2.04	-$2.09	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-22	74-75°F	YES	0.016	$2.35	-$2.41	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-22	94-95°F	NO	0.810	$26.13	$6.00	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.490	$22.12	-$22.41	LOSS	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-22	94-95°F	NO	0.810	$33.10	$7.61	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-22	94-95°F	NO	0.810	$27.31	$6.28	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.490	$23.12	-$23.42	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.490	$24.21	-$24.52	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-22	88-89°F	YES	0.016	$1.36	-$1.39	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-22	90-91°F	YES	0.220	$2.01	-$2.05	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-22	74-75°F	NO	0.750	$12.71	$4.16	WIN	72°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-22	74-75°F	NO	0.750	$33.10	$10.83	WIN	72°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-22	74-75°F	NO	0.750	$27.31	$8.93	WIN	72°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-22	74-75°F	NO	0.750	$14.36	$4.70	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-22	78-79°F	YES	0.200	$1.36	-$1.39	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-22	82-83°F	YES	0.009	$1.58	-$1.62	LOSS	72°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-22	84-85°F	NO	0.580	$33.10	-$33.45	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-22	80-81°F	YES	0.090	$1.62	-$1.65	LOSS	84°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-22	70-71°F	NO	0.670	$16.20	$7.85	WIN	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-22	72-73°F	NO	0.690	$11.94	-$12.03	LOSS	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-22	70-71°F	NO	0.670	$12.14	$5.88	WIN	72°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-21	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$22.65	-$22.83	LOSS	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-21	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$22.65	$15.51	WIN	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-21	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$32.28	-$32.54	LOSS	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-21	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$33.05	-$33.32	LOSS	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-21	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$33.05	$22.63	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-21	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$27.36	-$27.58	LOSS	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-21	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$27.36	$18.73	WIN	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-21	84-85°F	NO	0.927	$22.42	$1.72	WIN	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-21	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$22.42	-$22.60	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-21	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$22.42	$15.35	WIN	86°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-21	90-91°F	YES	0.140	$4.10	-$4.19	LOSS	86°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-21	92-93°F	YES	0.038	$2.40	-$2.46	LOSS	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-21	70-71°F	NO	0.830	$22.65	-$22.75	LOSS	70°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-21	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$22.65	$14.87	WIN	70°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-21	70-71°F	NO	0.830	$32.28	-$32.42	LOSS	70°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-21	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$32.28	$21.20	WIN	70°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-21	70-71°F	NO	0.830	$33.05	-$33.19	LOSS	70°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-21	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$27.36	$17.96	WIN	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-21	68-69°F	NO	0.940	$22.42	$1.40	WIN	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-21	70-71°F	NO	0.830	$22.42	-$22.52	LOSS	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-21	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$22.42	$14.72	WIN	70°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-21	74-75°F	YES	0.220	$1.52	-$1.55	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-21	76-77°F	YES	0.060	$3.11	-$3.19	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-21	78-79°F	YES	0.008	$1.45	-$1.48	LOSS	70°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-21	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$22.65	-$22.87	LOSS	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-21	94-95°F	NO	0.770	$22.65	$6.64	WIN	92°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-21	94-95°F	NO	0.770	$32.28	$9.46	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-21	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$33.05	-$33.37	LOSS	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-21	94-95°F	NO	0.770	$33.05	$9.68	WIN	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-21	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$27.36	-$27.62	LOSS	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-21	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$22.42	-$22.63	LOSS	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-21	94-95°F	NO	0.770	$22.42	$6.57	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-21	88-89°F	YES	0.020	$3.06	-$3.14	LOSS	92°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-21	68-69°F	NO	0.660	$22.65	$11.48	WIN	70°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-21	70-71°F	NO	0.550	$20.34	-$20.57	LOSS	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-21	68-69°F	NO	0.660	$32.28	$16.36	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-21	68-69°F	NO	0.660	$27.36	$13.86	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-21	70-71°F	NO	0.550	$24.57	-$24.84	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-21	72-73°F	YES	0.110	$2.90	-$2.97	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-21	74-75°F	YES	0.040	$1.59	-$1.63	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-21	92-93°F	NO	0.480	$2.31	$2.47	WIN	94°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-21	92-93°F	NO	0.480	$33.05	$35.38	WIN	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-21	92-93°F	NO	0.480	$27.36	$29.28	WIN	94°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-21	88-89°F	YES	0.050	$2.10	-$2.15	LOSS	94°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-21	90-91°F	YES	0.240	$3.60	-$3.67	LOSS	94°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-21	80-81°F	NO	0.874	$32.28	$4.55	WIN	84°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-21	82-83°F	NO	0.620	$32.28	$19.48	WIN	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-21	80-81°F	NO	0.874	$33.05	$4.66	WIN	84°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-21	82-83°F	NO	0.620	$16.05	$9.68	WIN	84°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-21	86-87°F	YES	0.060	$4.49	-$4.60	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-21	88-89°F	YES	0.025	$1.87	-$1.91	LOSS	84°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-21	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$32.28	$10.00	WIN	76°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-21	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$12.55	$8.95	WIN	76°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-21	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$20.51	$6.35	WIN	76°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-21	76-77°F	YES	0.230	$1.59	$5.30	WIN	76°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-21	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$14.10	$9.65	WIN	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-20	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$29.56	$10.19	WIN	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-20	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$14.50	-$14.64	LOSS	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-20	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$40.68	$14.03	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-20	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$33.40	$11.52	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-20	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$16.39	-$16.55	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-20	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$20.93	$7.22	WIN	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-20	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$10.27	-$10.37	LOSS	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-20	78-79°F	NO	0.590	$29.46	$20.17	WIN	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-20	78-79°F	NO	0.590	$33.29	$22.79	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-20	76-77°F	NO	0.760	$13.89	-$13.97	LOSS	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-20	78-79°F	NO	0.590	$20.86	$14.28	WIN	76°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-20	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$29.56	$7.70	WIN	88°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$29.56	$13.67	WIN	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-20	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$40.68	$10.60	WIN	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$40.68	$18.82	WIN	88°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-20	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$35.58	$9.27	WIN	88°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$33.40	$15.45	WIN	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-20	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$20.93	$5.45	WIN	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$20.93	$9.68	WIN	88°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-20	94-95°F	YES	0.250	$4.88	-$4.97	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-20	96-97°F	YES	0.120	$3.60	-$3.68	LOSS	88°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-20	68-69°F	NO	0.590	$29.56	$20.24	WIN	70°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-20	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$20.49	-$20.67	LOSS	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-20	68-69°F	NO	0.590	$35.58	$24.36	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-20	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$24.66	-$24.89	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-20	68-69°F	NO	0.590	$33.40	$22.87	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-20	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$23.15	-$23.37	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-20	68-69°F	NO	0.590	$20.93	$14.33	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-20	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$14.51	-$14.64	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-20	72-73°F	YES	0.060	$3.65	-$3.74	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-20	74-75°F	YES	0.015	$1.83	-$1.88	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$29.56	-$29.87	LOSS	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$40.68	-$41.11	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$33.40	-$33.75	LOSS	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$20.93	-$21.15	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-20	88-89°F	YES	0.070	$5.07	-$5.18	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-20	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$24.22	$7.10	WIN	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-20	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$40.68	$11.92	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-20	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$35.58	$10.42	WIN	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-20	82-83°F	NO	0.580	$33.40	-$33.75	LOSS	82°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-20	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$3.27	$0.96	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-20	86-87°F	YES	0.080	$4.64	-$4.74	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-20	88-89°F	YES	0.015	$2.38	-$2.44	LOSS	82°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-20	72-73°F	NO	0.710	$40.68	$16.32	WIN	70°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-20	70-71°F	NO	0.880	$40.68	-$40.80	LOSS	70°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-20	70-71°F	NO	0.880	$35.58	-$35.69	LOSS	70°F
h3	SEA	2026-06-20	72-73°F	NO	0.710	$27.38	$10.98	WIN	70°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-20	74-75°F	YES	0.290	$2.45	-$2.50	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-20	76-77°F	YES	0.150	$4.21	-$4.30	LOSS	70°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-19	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$40.49	$11.20	WIN	76°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-19	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$40.49	-$40.92	LOSS	76°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-19	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$47.90	$13.25	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-19	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$47.42	$13.11	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-19	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$47.42	-$47.93	LOSS	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-19	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$45.81	-$46.30	LOSS	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-19	72-73°F	NO	0.926	$34.99	$2.73	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-19	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$34.99	$9.68	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-19	76-77°F	NO	0.570	$34.99	-$35.37	LOSS	76°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-19	78-79°F	YES	0.220	$3.53	-$3.60	LOSS	76°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-19	80-81°F	YES	0.090	$2.66	-$2.72	LOSS	76°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-19	83°F or below	NO	0.836	$40.49	$7.78	WIN	84°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-19	84-85°F	NO	0.730	$40.49	-$40.76	LOSS	84°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-19	83°F or below	NO	0.836	$47.90	$9.20	WIN	84°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-19	84-85°F	NO	0.730	$47.90	-$48.23	LOSS	84°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-19	83°F or below	NO	0.836	$47.42	$9.11	WIN	84°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-19	84-85°F	NO	0.730	$47.42	-$47.74	LOSS	84°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-19	84-85°F	NO	0.730	$45.81	-$46.12	LOSS	84°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-19	83°F or below	NO	0.836	$34.99	$6.72	WIN	84°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-19	84-85°F	NO	0.730	$34.99	-$35.23	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-19	88-89°F	YES	0.180	$3.59	-$3.66	LOSS	84°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-19	92-93°F	NO	0.500	$38.72	-$39.20	LOSS	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-19	92-93°F	NO	0.500	$45.35	-$45.92	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-19	92-93°F	NO	0.500	$43.80	-$44.35	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-19	88-89°F	YES	0.037	$2.92	-$2.99	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-19	90-91°F	YES	0.190	$7.24	-$7.39	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-19	82-83°F	NO	0.650	$16.28	-$16.42	LOSS	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-19	82-83°F	NO	0.650	$18.41	-$18.57	LOSS	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-19	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$11.42	$5.78	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-19	90-91°F	NO	0.937	$34.99	$2.30	WIN	88°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-19	80-81°F	YES	0.037	$3.34	-$3.42	LOSS	88°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-19	68-69°F	NO	0.550	$45.81	$36.96	WIN	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-19	72-73°F	YES	0.080	$6.40	-$6.54	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-19	74-75°F	YES	0.008	$4.17	-$4.27	LOSS	70°F
h3	SEA	2026-06-19	82-83°F	NO	0.720	$34.67	$13.24	WIN	80°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-19	78-79°F	YES	0.150	$2.59	-$2.64	LOSS	80°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-19	92-93°F	NO	0.952	$34.99	$1.72	WIN	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-19	82-83°F	NO	0.878	$34.99	-$35.10	LOSS	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-17	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$26.08	$3.48	WIN	84°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-17	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$26.08	-$26.30	LOSS	84°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-17	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$32.12	$4.28	WIN	84°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-17	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$32.12	-$32.39	LOSS	84°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-17	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$31.78	$4.24	WIN	84°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	21/30	no
CHI	20/30	no
DAL	20/30	no
DEN	21/30	no
LAX	21/30	no
MIA	21/30	no
NYC	20/30	no
SEA	17/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$2,259.15.