Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-312514 decisions08:02:49 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-06-29: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 46 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 8, 'h2': 9, 'h3': 10, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 1}
settle▸ [settle] settled 46, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-06-30T08:00:03Z] forward-collection done: 19 snapshots written
rendered 2026-06-30 08:02:49 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

1326

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$2,901.77

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 1326 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	251	10	181	61%	-0.0665	-0.0729	-0.0780	-$418.58	$6,297
baseline	secondary	FAIL	228	9	159	64%	-0.0927	-0.0985	-0.0175	-$541.74	$5,844
h1	secondary	FAIL	181	8	141	75%	+0.0073	+0.0029	-0.0400	$47.65	$6,495
h2	secondary	FAIL	162	9	123	69%	-0.0802	-0.0876	-0.0485	-$413.62	$5,160
h4	secondary	FAIL	251	9	138	66%	-0.1056	-0.1117	+0.0382	-$598.65	$5,669
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	253	1	152	9%	-0.5961	-0.7177	-0.1362	-$976.84	$1,639

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions46 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$16.90	0.139	0.861
baseline	ATL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$13.15	0.291	0.709
baseline	CHI	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.770	$16.90	0.088	0.912
baseline	CHI	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$16.90	0.220	0.780
baseline	CHI	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$16.90	0.030	0.970
baseline	DAL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$16.90	0.065	0.935
baseline	DAL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.760	$16.90	0.176	0.824
baseline	DAL	2026-06-30	96-97°F	NO	0.630	$7.39	0.304	0.696
baseline	DEN	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$13.25	0.332	0.668
h1	ATL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$37.75	0.139	0.861
h1	CHI	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.770	$37.75	0.088	0.912
h1	CHI	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$37.75	0.220	0.780
h1	CHI	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$37.75	0.030	0.970
h1	DAL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$37.75	0.065	0.935
h1	DAL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.760	$37.75	0.176	0.824
h1	DEN	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$37.75	0.141	0.859
h1	LAX	2026-06-30	68-69°F	NO	0.700	$37.75	0.190	0.810
h2	ATL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$23.05	0.139	0.861
h2	ATL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$17.94	0.291	0.709
h2	CHI	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.770	$23.05	0.088	0.912
h2	CHI	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$23.05	0.030	0.970
h2	DAL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$23.05	0.065	0.935
h2	DEN	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$20.76	0.332	0.668
h2	DEN	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$23.05	0.141	0.859
h2	MIA	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$19.99	0.309	0.691
h2	MIA	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.480	$10.46	0.376	0.624
h3	ATL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$16.86	0.291	0.709
h3	CHI	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$21.66	0.220	0.780
h3	DAL	2026-06-30	96-97°F	NO	0.630	$9.48	0.304	0.696
h3	DEN	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$19.51	0.332	0.668
h3	DEN	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$21.66	0.141	0.859
h3	LAX	2026-06-30	68-69°F	NO	0.700	$21.66	0.190	0.810
h3	LAX	2026-06-30	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$18.36	0.278	0.722
h3	MIA	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$18.78	0.309	0.691
h3	MIA	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.480	$16.32	0.376	0.624
h3	NYC	2026-06-30	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$9.00	0.234	0.766
h4	ATL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$14.51	0.139	0.861
h4	ATL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$11.30	0.291	0.709
h4	CHI	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.770	$14.51	0.088	0.912
h4	CHI	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$14.51	0.220	0.780
h4	CHI	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$14.51	0.030	0.970
h4	DAL	2026-06-30	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$14.51	0.065	0.935
h4	DAL	2026-06-30	94-95°F	NO	0.760	$14.51	0.176	0.824
h4	DAL	2026-06-30	96-97°F	NO	0.630	$6.35	0.304	0.696
h4	DEN	2026-06-30	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$11.38	0.332	0.668
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-30	88-89°F	YES	0.150	$1.01	0.301	0.301

Settlements1326 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$16.59	$10.89	WIN	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$19.12	$12.56	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-29	94-95°F	NO	0.610	$24.11	-$24.34	LOSS	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$24.11	$15.83	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-29	94-95°F	NO	0.610	$16.91	-$17.07	LOSS	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$16.91	$11.10	WIN	94°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-29	98-99°F	YES	0.111	$1.41	-$1.44	LOSS	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.860	$16.59	$2.64	WIN	92°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.860	$36.73	$5.85	WIN	92°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.860	$19.12	$3.05	WIN	92°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$24.11	-$24.31	LOSS	92°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-29	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$2.59	$0.85	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-29	88-89°F	NO	0.970	$16.91	$0.51	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.860	$16.91	$2.69	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$16.91	-$17.05	LOSS	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$16.59	-$16.73	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-29	98-99°F	NO	0.620	$12.25	$7.39	WIN	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$36.73	-$37.04	LOSS	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$24.11	-$24.31	LOSS	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-29	98-99°F	NO	0.620	$17.80	$10.74	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-29	94-95°F	NO	0.879	$16.91	$2.28	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-29	96-97°F	NO	0.660	$16.91	-$17.05	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-29	98-99°F	NO	0.620	$12.48	$7.53	WIN	96°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-29	100-101°F	YES	0.100	$1.04	-$1.06	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$16.59	$7.32	WIN	88°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.897	$16.59	$1.86	WIN	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$36.73	$16.22	WIN	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.897	$36.73	$4.12	WIN	88°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$19.12	$8.44	WIN	88°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.897	$19.12	$2.15	WIN	88°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$24.11	$10.65	WIN	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-29	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$4.42	$1.95	WIN	88°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-29	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$16.59	-$16.74	LOSS	72°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-29	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$36.73	-$37.08	LOSS	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-29	70-71°F	NO	0.590	$24.11	$16.51	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-29	72-73°F	NO	0.620	$24.11	-$24.34	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-29	74-75°F	YES	0.089	$1.45	-$1.48	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-29	76-77°F	YES	0.012	$1.38	-$1.41	LOSS	72°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.450	$13.61	-$13.80	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-29	92-93°F	NO	0.450	$3.72	-$3.77	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-29	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$7.31	$3.71	WIN	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-29	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$36.73	$18.61	WIN	86°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-29	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$36.73	$5.85	WIN	62°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-29	66-67°F	NO	0.640	$36.73	$20.33	WIN	62°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-29	64-65°F	NO	0.860	$19.12	$3.05	WIN	62°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-29	68-69°F	YES	0.270	$1.05	-$1.07	LOSS	62°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-28	90-91°F	NO	0.850	$17.98	$3.11	WIN	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-28	90-91°F	NO	0.850	$39.07	$6.75	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-28	90-91°F	NO	0.850	$26.18	$4.52	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-28	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$23.08	-$23.31	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-28	90-91°F	NO	0.850	$16.44	$2.84	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-28	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$16.44	-$16.60	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-28	96-97°F	YES	0.075	$1.76	-$1.80	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-28	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$17.98	-$18.02	LOSS	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-28	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$17.98	$6.53	WIN	80°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-28	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$17.98	$8.71	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-28	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$39.07	-$39.15	LOSS	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-28	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$39.07	$14.19	WIN	80°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-28	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$39.07	$18.92	WIN	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-28	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$26.18	-$26.23	LOSS	80°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-28	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$26.18	$9.51	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-28	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$23.08	$8.38	WIN	80°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-28	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$23.08	$11.18	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-28	80-81°F	NO	0.920	$16.44	-$16.47	LOSS	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-28	82-83°F	NO	0.730	$16.44	$5.97	WIN	80°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-28	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$16.44	$7.96	WIN	80°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-28	88-89°F	YES	0.090	$1.17	-$1.19	LOSS	80°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.570	$15.87	-$16.04	LOSS	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-28	94-95°F	NO	0.730	$17.23	$6.26	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.570	$20.37	-$20.58	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.570	$14.50	-$14.66	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-28	94-95°F	NO	0.550	$12.25	-$12.39	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$17.98	$5.88	WIN	94°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$39.07	$12.78	WIN	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-28	94-95°F	NO	0.550	$17.83	-$18.03	LOSS	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$26.18	$8.56	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-28	94-95°F	NO	0.550	$15.73	-$15.90	LOSS	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$23.08	$7.55	WIN	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-28	94-95°F	NO	0.550	$11.20	-$11.32	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-28	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$16.44	$5.38	WIN	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-28	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$17.98	$10.40	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-28	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$26.18	$15.13	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-28	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$23.08	-$23.32	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-28	72-73°F	NO	0.630	$15.92	$9.20	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-28	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$7.17	-$7.25	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-28	74-75°F	YES	0.056	$1.86	-$1.91	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-28	76-77°F	YES	0.012	$1.20	-$1.23	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-28	90-91°F	NO	0.530	$7.85	$6.87	WIN	92°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-28	80-81°F	NO	0.660	$39.07	$19.80	WIN	82°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-28	64-65°F	NO	0.830	$39.07	$7.84	WIN	66°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-28	64-65°F	NO	0.830	$26.18	$5.25	WIN	66°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-28	70-71°F	YES	0.120	$1.49	-$1.53	LOSS	66°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$21.94	$13.81	WIN	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$40.44	$25.46	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$28.30	$17.82	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-27	88-89°F	NO	0.890	$16.49	$1.99	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.610	$19.20	$12.09	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-27	94-95°F	YES	0.091	$1.36	-$1.39	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-27	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$21.94	$6.07	WIN	76°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$21.94	-$22.15	LOSS	76°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-27	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$40.44	$11.18	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-27	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$27.20	$7.52	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$27.20	-$27.46	LOSS	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$28.30	-$28.57	LOSS	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-27	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$19.20	$5.31	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$19.20	-$19.38	LOSS	76°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-27	96-97°F	NO	0.860	$21.94	-$22.02	LOSS	96°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-27	96-97°F	NO	0.860	$40.44	-$40.58	LOSS	96°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-27	96-97°F	NO	0.860	$27.20	-$27.30	LOSS	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-27	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$13.84	$6.70	WIN	96°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-27	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$28.30	$13.09	WIN	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-27	94-95°F	NO	0.680	$19.20	$8.88	WIN	96°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-27	96-97°F	NO	0.860	$19.20	-$19.27	LOSS	96°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-27	88-89°F	YES	0.037	$1.34	-$1.37	LOSS	96°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-27	90-91°F	YES	0.200	$1.54	-$1.57	LOSS	96°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-27	72-73°F	NO	0.610	$21.94	-$22.15	LOSS	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-27	72-73°F	NO	0.610	$27.20	-$27.47	LOSS	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-27	70-71°F	NO	0.600	$28.30	$18.58	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-27	72-73°F	NO	0.610	$28.30	-$28.57	LOSS	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-27	70-71°F	NO	0.600	$19.20	$12.61	WIN	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-27	72-73°F	NO	0.610	$17.29	-$17.46	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-27	74-75°F	YES	0.107	$1.91	-$1.95	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-27	76-77°F	YES	0.010	$1.54	-$1.57	LOSS	72°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.470	$11.58	-$11.73	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-27	90-91°F	NO	0.470	$14.93	-$15.13	LOSS	90°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-27	88-89°F	YES	0.170	$1.50	-$1.53	LOSS	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$21.94	$8.38	WIN	78°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-27	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$15.50	-$15.64	LOSS	78°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$40.44	$15.44	WIN	78°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-27	76-77°F	NO	0.720	$28.30	$10.81	WIN	78°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-27	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$19.99	-$20.17	LOSS	78°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-27	64-65°F	NO	0.750	$16.81	$5.50	WIN	68°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-27	64-65°F	NO	0.750	$40.44	$13.23	WIN	68°F
h3	SEA	2026-06-27	64-65°F	NO	0.750	$1.02	$0.33	WIN	68°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-27	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$6.82	$3.46	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-27	94-95°F	NO	0.660	$4.63	$2.34	WIN	96°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$11.63	-$11.74	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-26	86-87°F	NO	0.750	$1.94	$0.63	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$13.96	-$14.09	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.620	$10.32	-$10.42	LOSS	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$22.22	$3.84	WIN	66°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$33.75	$5.83	WIN	66°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$24.36	$4.21	WIN	66°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-26	72-73°F	NO	0.850	$19.72	$3.41	WIN	66°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-26	76-77°F	NO	0.972	$19.72	$0.55	WIN	66°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$22.22	-$22.41	LOSS	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$24.36	-$24.58	LOSS	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$26.67	-$26.90	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-26	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$19.72	-$19.89	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-26	98-99°F	NO	0.930	$19.72	$1.45	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$22.22	-$22.34	LOSS	88°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$22.22	$2.41	WIN	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$33.75	-$33.94	LOSS	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$33.75	$3.67	WIN	88°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$24.36	-$24.50	LOSS	88°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$24.36	$2.65	WIN	88°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-26	86-87°F	NO	0.690	$13.02	$5.75	WIN	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-26	88-89°F	NO	0.780	$19.72	-$19.83	LOSS	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.900	$19.72	$2.14	WIN	88°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$22.22	$8.07	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$33.75	$12.26	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$24.36	$8.85	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-26	70-71°F	NO	0.440	$26.67	-$27.04	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$26.67	$9.68	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-26	70-71°F	NO	0.440	$19.72	-$19.99	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-26	68-69°F	NO	0.730	$9.40	$3.41	WIN	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-26	72-73°F	YES	0.110	$1.19	-$1.21	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-26	74-75°F	YES	0.038	$1.04	-$1.07	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$22.22	-$22.46	LOSS	90°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$24.36	-$24.63	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-26	90-91°F	NO	0.560	$26.67	-$26.96	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-26	92-93°F	NO	0.600	$11.01	$7.23	WIN	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-26	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$22.22	-$22.30	LOSS	82°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-26	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$10.59	$5.86	WIN	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-26	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$33.75	-$33.89	LOSS	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-26	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$33.75	$18.68	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-26	82-83°F	NO	0.840	$24.36	-$24.46	LOSS	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-26	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$26.67	$14.76	WIN	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-26	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$4.19	$1.94	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-26	88-89°F	YES	0.050	$1.68	-$1.72	LOSS	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$22.02	$9.27	WIN	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-25	84-85°F	NO	0.760	$22.02	$6.82	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$37.49	$15.79	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-25	84-85°F	NO	0.760	$37.49	$11.62	WIN	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$29.00	$12.21	WIN	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-25	84-85°F	NO	0.760	$29.00	$8.99	WIN	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$26.87	$11.31	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	79°F or below	NO	0.983	$20.02	$0.34	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$20.02	$8.43	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	80-81°F	NO	0.983	$20.02	$0.34	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-25	82-83°F	NO	0.953	$20.02	-$20.04	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-25	90-91°F	YES	0.099	$2.16	-$2.20	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-25	92-93°F	YES	0.020	$1.15	-$1.18	LOSS	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$22.02	$6.45	WIN	78°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.630	$22.02	-$22.22	LOSS	78°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$37.49	$10.98	WIN	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$29.00	$8.50	WIN	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.630	$29.00	-$29.27	LOSS	78°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-25	78-79°F	NO	0.630	$26.87	-$27.11	LOSS	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-25	76-77°F	NO	0.770	$20.02	$5.86	WIN	78°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	28/30	no
CHI	27/30	no
DAL	27/30	no
DEN	28/30	no
LAX	28/30	no
MIA	28/30	no
NYC	27/30	no
SEA	23/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$2,901.77.