Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated 28 min agoPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-313128 decisions20:30:07 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-07-06: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 42 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 5, 'h2': 8, 'h3': 12, 'h4': 8, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 43, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-07-06T20:00:02Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-07-06 20:30:07 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

1580

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$3,133.93

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 1580 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	307	21	218	60%	-0.0702	-0.0758	-0.0886	-$506.12	$7,207
baseline	secondary	FAIL	282	18	194	65%	-0.0899	-0.0950	-0.0170	-$591.88	$6,584
h1	secondary	FAIL	227	10	173	75%	+0.0066	+0.0027	-0.0337	$54.84	$8,249
h2	secondary	FAIL	206	14	155	70%	-0.0681	-0.0744	-0.0414	-$412.81	$6,059
h4	secondary	FAIL	302	18	162	65%	-0.1110	-0.1165	+0.0132	-$697.90	$6,286
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions81 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-07-06	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$9.32	0.320	0.680
baseline	CHI	2026-07-06	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$11.52	0.274	0.726
baseline	DAL	2026-07-06	93°F or below	NO	0.770	$14.86	0.119	0.881
baseline	DAL	2026-07-06	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$14.86	0.195	0.805
baseline	DEN	2026-07-06	96-97°F	NO	0.540	$14.86	0.296	0.704
baseline	LAX	2026-07-06	72-73°F	NO	0.770	$14.86	0.097	0.903
baseline	LAX	2026-07-06	74-75°F	NO	0.610	$14.86	0.208	0.792
baseline	MIA	2026-07-06	90-91°F	NO	0.500	$9.95	0.400	0.600
baseline	NYC	2026-07-06	74-75°F	NO	0.610	$13.79	0.251	0.749
h1	DAL	2026-07-06	93°F or below	NO	0.770	$38.84	0.119	0.881
h1	DAL	2026-07-06	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$38.84	0.195	0.805
h1	LAX	2026-07-06	72-73°F	NO	0.770	$38.84	0.097	0.903
h1	LAX	2026-07-06	74-75°F	NO	0.610	$38.84	0.208	0.792
h1	SEA	2026-07-06	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$38.84	0.137	0.863
h2	CHI	2026-07-06	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$15.73	0.274	0.726
h2	DAL	2026-07-06	93°F or below	NO	0.770	$20.30	0.119	0.881
h2	DEN	2026-07-06	96-97°F	NO	0.540	$20.30	0.296	0.704
h2	LAX	2026-07-06	72-73°F	NO	0.770	$20.30	0.097	0.903
h2	NYC	2026-07-06	74-75°F	NO	0.610	$20.30	0.251	0.749
h2	SEA	2026-07-06	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$20.30	0.137	0.863
h3	ATL	2026-07-06	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$11.54	0.320	0.680
h3	CHI	2026-07-06	78-79°F	NO	0.680	$5.80	0.293	0.707
h3	CHI	2026-07-06	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$14.25	0.274	0.726
h3	DAL	2026-07-06	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$18.39	0.195	0.805
h3	DAL	2026-07-06	96-97°F	NO	0.670	$4.08	0.308	0.692
h3	DEN	2026-07-06	96-97°F	NO	0.540	$18.39	0.296	0.704
h3	LAX	2026-07-06	74-75°F	NO	0.610	$18.39	0.208	0.792
h3	MIA	2026-07-06	90-91°F	NO	0.500	$12.31	0.400	0.600
h3	NYC	2026-07-06	74-75°F	NO	0.610	$18.39	0.251	0.749
h4	ATL	2026-07-06	90-91°F	NO	0.620	$7.27	0.320	0.680
h4	CHI	2026-07-06	80-81°F	NO	0.670	$8.98	0.274	0.726
h4	DAL	2026-07-06	93°F or below	NO	0.770	$11.58	0.119	0.881
h4	DAL	2026-07-06	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$11.58	0.195	0.805
h4	DEN	2026-07-06	96-97°F	NO	0.540	$11.58	0.296	0.704
h4	DEN	2026-07-06	98-99°F	NO	0.869	$8.19	0.110	0.890
h4	LAX	2026-07-06	72-73°F	NO	0.770	$11.58	0.097	0.903
h4	LAX	2026-07-06	74-75°F	NO	0.610	$11.58	0.208	0.792
h4	MIA	2026-07-06	88-89°F	NO	0.800	$5.61	0.177	0.823
h4	MIA	2026-07-06	90-91°F	NO	0.500	$4.71	0.400	0.600
baseline	ATL	2026-07-07	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$14.41	0.286	0.714
baseline	CHI	2026-07-07	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$14.41	0.047	0.953
baseline	CHI	2026-07-07	82-83°F	NO	0.700	$14.41	0.136	0.864
baseline	CHI	2026-07-07	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$13.09	0.282	0.718
baseline	DAL	2026-07-07	96-97°F	NO	0.680	$14.41	0.202	0.798
baseline	MIA	2026-07-07	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$6.25	0.375	0.625
baseline	NYC	2026-07-07	72-73°F	NO	0.750	$14.41	0.170	0.830
baseline	NYC	2026-07-07	74-75°F	NO	0.580	$8.10	0.296	0.704
baseline	SEA	2026-07-07	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$14.41	0.159	0.841
h1	CHI	2026-07-07	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$42.97	0.047	0.953
h1	CHI	2026-07-07	82-83°F	NO	0.700	$42.97	0.136	0.864
h1	DAL	2026-07-07	96-97°F	NO	0.680	$42.97	0.202	0.798
h1	NYC	2026-07-07	72-73°F	NO	0.750	$42.97	0.170	0.830
h1	SEA	2026-07-07	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$42.97	0.159	0.841
h2	ATL	2026-07-07	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$23.45	0.286	0.714
h2	CHI	2026-07-07	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$23.45	0.047	0.953
h2	CHI	2026-07-07	82-83°F	NO	0.700	$23.45	0.136	0.864
h2	CHI	2026-07-07	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$21.30	0.282	0.718
h2	MIA	2026-07-07	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$10.17	0.375	0.625
h2	NYC	2026-07-07	72-73°F	NO	0.750	$23.45	0.170	0.830
h2	NYC	2026-07-07	74-75°F	NO	0.580	$13.18	0.296	0.704
h2	SEA	2026-07-07	74-75°F	NO	0.780	$23.45	0.159	0.841
h3	ATL	2026-07-07	90-91°F	NO	0.690	$3.98	0.292	0.708
h3	ATL	2026-07-07	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$18.56	0.286	0.714
h3	CHI	2026-07-07	82-83°F	NO	0.700	$18.56	0.136	0.864
h3	CHI	2026-07-07	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$16.86	0.282	0.718
h3	DAL	2026-07-07	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$18.56	0.079	0.921
h3	DAL	2026-07-07	96-97°F	NO	0.680	$18.56	0.202	0.798
h3	DEN	2026-07-07	94-95°F	NO	0.620	$3.67	0.348	0.652
h3	DEN	2026-07-07	96-97°F	NO	0.716	$1.27	0.275	0.725
h3	LAX	2026-07-07	74-75°F	NO	0.660	$18.56	0.075	0.925
h3	LAX	2026-07-07	76-77°F	NO	0.610	$18.56	0.174	0.826
h3	MIA	2026-07-07	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$8.04	0.375	0.625
h3	MIA	2026-07-07	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$3.30	0.139	0.861
h4	ATL	2026-07-07	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$10.44	0.286	0.714
h4	CHI	2026-07-07	80-81°F	NO	0.890	$10.44	0.047	0.953
h4	CHI	2026-07-07	82-83°F	NO	0.700	$10.44	0.136	0.864
h4	CHI	2026-07-07	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$9.48	0.282	0.718
h4	DAL	2026-07-07	90-91°F	NO	0.981	$10.44	0.010	0.990
h4	DAL	2026-07-07	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$10.44	0.079	0.921
h4	DAL	2026-07-07	96-97°F	NO	0.680	$10.44	0.202	0.798
h4	LAX	2026-07-07	74-75°F	NO	0.660	$10.44	0.075	0.925

Settlements1580 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-07-05	90-91°F	NO	0.770	$14.40	$4.22	WIN	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-05	90-91°F	NO	0.770	$35.65	$10.44	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-05	90-91°F	NO	0.770	$23.05	$6.75	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-05	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$17.86	-$18.03	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-05	88-89°F	NO	0.969	$11.73	$0.37	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-05	90-91°F	NO	0.770	$11.73	$3.44	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-05	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$11.73	-$11.84	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-05	74-75°F	NO	0.830	$14.40	$2.89	WIN	76°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-05	76-77°F	NO	0.690	$14.40	-$14.51	LOSS	76°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-05	74-75°F	NO	0.830	$35.65	$7.15	WIN	76°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-05	76-77°F	NO	0.690	$35.65	-$35.92	LOSS	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-05	74-75°F	NO	0.830	$23.05	$4.62	WIN	76°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-05	76-77°F	NO	0.690	$23.05	-$23.23	LOSS	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-05	76-77°F	NO	0.690	$17.86	-$18.00	LOSS	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-05	74-75°F	NO	0.830	$11.73	$2.35	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-05	76-77°F	NO	0.690	$11.73	-$11.82	LOSS	76°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-05	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$14.40	-$14.47	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-05	98-99°F	NO	0.700	$14.40	$6.06	WIN	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-05	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$35.65	-$35.83	LOSS	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-05	98-99°F	NO	0.700	$35.65	$15.01	WIN	96°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-05	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$23.05	-$23.16	LOSS	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-05	98-99°F	NO	0.700	$17.86	$7.52	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-05	94-95°F	NO	0.960	$11.73	$0.48	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-05	96-97°F	NO	0.800	$11.73	-$11.79	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-05	98-99°F	NO	0.700	$11.73	$4.94	WIN	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-05	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$14.40	$10.71	WIN	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-05	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$23.05	$17.14	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-05	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$17.86	$13.28	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-05	94-95°F	NO	0.650	$17.86	-$18.02	LOSS	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-05	72-73°F	NO	0.650	$14.40	$7.63	WIN	74°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-05	74-75°F	NO	0.540	$11.45	-$11.58	LOSS	74°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-05	72-73°F	NO	0.650	$35.65	$18.88	WIN	74°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-05	72-73°F	NO	0.650	$23.05	$12.21	WIN	74°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-05	74-75°F	NO	0.540	$18.32	-$18.53	LOSS	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-05	72-73°F	NO	0.650	$17.86	$9.46	WIN	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-05	74-75°F	NO	0.540	$14.20	-$14.37	LOSS	74°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-05	90-91°F	NO	0.430	$2.95	$3.87	WIN	94°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-05	90-91°F	NO	0.430	$13.75	$18.03	WIN	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-05	90-91°F	NO	0.430	$10.66	$13.98	WIN	94°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-05	80-81°F	NO	0.899	$35.65	$3.91	WIN	78°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-05	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$35.65	$7.66	WIN	78°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-05	80-81°F	NO	0.899	$14.02	$1.54	WIN	78°F
h3	NYC	2026-07-05	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$10.87	$6.01	WIN	78°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$16.69	-$16.75	LOSS	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$16.69	$5.46	WIN	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$43.66	-$43.82	LOSS	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$43.66	$14.28	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$25.49	-$25.58	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-04	94-95°F	NO	0.580	$18.99	$13.55	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$18.99	$6.21	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-04	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$12.44	-$12.49	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-04	94-95°F	NO	0.580	$12.44	$8.88	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.750	$12.44	$4.07	WIN	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-04	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$16.69	$8.84	WIN	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-04	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$43.66	$23.13	WIN	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-04	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$25.49	$13.50	WIN	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-04	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$18.99	$10.06	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-04	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$12.44	$6.59	WIN	82°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.780	$16.69	$4.61	WIN	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.650	$16.69	-$16.83	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.780	$43.66	$12.07	WIN	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.650	$43.66	-$44.04	LOSS	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.780	$25.49	$7.05	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.650	$18.99	-$19.16	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-04	96-97°F	NO	0.780	$12.44	$3.44	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.650	$12.44	-$12.55	LOSS	98°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-04	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$7.27	-$7.35	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-04	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$7.92	-$8.01	LOSS	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-04	94-95°F	NO	0.890	$16.69	$2.02	WIN	96°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.640	$16.69	$9.24	WIN	96°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-04	94-95°F	NO	0.890	$43.66	$5.28	WIN	96°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-04	98-99°F	NO	0.640	$43.66	$24.16	WIN	96°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-04	94-95°F	NO	0.890	$25.49	$3.08	WIN	96°F
baseline	SEA	2026-07-04	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$9.42	$1.76	WIN	70°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-04	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$43.66	$8.14	WIN	70°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-04	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$25.49	$4.75	WIN	70°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-04	88-89°F	NO	0.470	$18.99	-$19.24	LOSS	88°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-04	90-91°F	NO	0.680	$18.99	$8.78	WIN	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-04	88-89°F	NO	0.470	$12.44	-$12.61	LOSS	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-04	90-91°F	NO	0.680	$12.44	$5.75	WIN	88°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-04	72-73°F	NO	0.480	$18.99	$20.33	WIN	74°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-04	74-75°F	NO	0.726	$11.07	-$11.15	LOSS	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.830	$14.20	-$14.26	LOSS	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.670	$14.20	$6.88	WIN	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.830	$35.45	-$35.60	LOSS	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.670	$35.45	$17.17	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.830	$20.31	-$20.40	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-03	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$16.66	$7.01	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.670	$16.66	$8.07	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.830	$11.67	-$11.72	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-03	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$11.67	$4.91	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.670	$11.67	$5.65	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-07-03	100-101°F	YES	0.055	$1.11	-$1.13	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-03	88-89°F	NO	0.630	$9.03	$5.22	WIN	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-03	88-89°F	NO	0.630	$10.60	$6.12	WIN	86°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-03	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$9.98	-$10.05	LOSS	86°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-03	88-89°F	NO	0.630	$7.42	$4.29	WIN	86°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.690	$14.20	-$14.31	LOSS	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.690	$35.45	-$35.72	LOSS	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-03	94-95°F	NO	0.550	$16.66	$13.44	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.690	$16.66	-$16.79	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.920	$11.67	$0.99	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-03	94-95°F	NO	0.550	$11.67	$9.41	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-03	96-97°F	NO	0.690	$11.67	-$11.76	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$14.20	-$14.34	LOSS	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$35.45	-$35.78	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-03	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$6.14	$4.03	WIN	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$16.66	-$16.82	LOSS	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-03	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$11.67	-$11.78	LOSS	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-03	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$6.95	-$7.03	LOSS	90°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-03	98-99°F	NO	0.880	$14.20	$1.89	WIN	100°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-03	102-103°F	NO	0.690	$14.20	$6.27	WIN	100°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-03	98-99°F	NO	0.880	$35.45	$4.73	WIN	100°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-03	102-103°F	NO	0.690	$35.45	$15.65	WIN	100°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-03	98-99°F	NO	0.880	$20.31	$2.71	WIN	100°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-03	102-103°F	NO	0.690	$20.31	$8.97	WIN	100°F
baseline	SEA	2026-07-03	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$12.42	$3.85	WIN	72°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-03	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$35.45	$10.98	WIN	72°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-03	70-71°F	NO	0.760	$20.31	$6.29	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-03	70-71°F	NO	0.670	$16.66	$8.07	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-03	72-73°F	NO	0.510	$6.60	-$6.68	LOSS	72°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-03	70-71°F	NO	0.670	$4.25	$2.06	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-07-03	76-77°F	YES	0.013	$1.04	-$1.06	LOSS	72°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$14.29	$4.67	WIN	94°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$38.61	$12.63	WIN	94°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$20.27	$6.63	WIN	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$18.29	$5.98	WIN	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.580	$18.29	-$18.48	LOSS	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$12.51	$4.09	WIN	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.580	$12.51	-$12.64	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$14.29	$3.50	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$38.61	$9.46	WIN	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$20.27	$4.97	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.560	$18.29	-$18.49	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.800	$12.51	$3.07	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.560	$12.51	-$12.65	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$14.29	$12.01	WIN	90°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.830	$14.29	$2.87	WIN	90°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$38.61	$32.45	WIN	90°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.830	$38.61	$7.74	WIN	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.830	$20.27	$4.07	WIN	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$18.29	$15.37	WIN	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-02	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$12.51	$10.51	WIN	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.830	$12.51	$2.51	WIN	90°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-02	68-69°F	NO	0.800	$14.29	$3.50	WIN	72°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-02	68-69°F	NO	0.800	$38.61	$9.46	WIN	72°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-02	68-69°F	NO	0.800	$20.27	$4.97	WIN	72°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-02	70-71°F	NO	0.460	$18.29	$21.22	WIN	72°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-02	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$14.29	$6.02	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-02	90-91°F	NO	0.510	$11.05	$10.48	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-02	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$38.61	$16.26	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-02	88-89°F	NO	0.700	$18.29	$7.70	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-02	98-99°F	NO	0.790	$14.29	$3.72	WIN	102°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-02	100-101°F	NO	0.590	$3.24	$2.22	WIN	102°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-02	98-99°F	NO	0.790	$38.61	$10.06	WIN	102°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-02	98-99°F	NO	0.790	$20.27	$5.28	WIN	102°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-02	100-101°F	NO	0.590	$20.27	$13.88	WIN	102°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-02	62-63°F	NO	0.879	$38.61	$5.20	WIN	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-02	62-63°F	NO	0.879	$20.27	$2.73	WIN	64°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-02	64-65°F	NO	0.730	$20.27	-$20.41	LOSS	64°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$18.29	$6.98	WIN	98°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-02	96-97°F	NO	0.580	$18.29	$13.05	WIN	98°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-02	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$12.51	$4.78	WIN	98°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-02	96-97°F	NO	0.580	$12.51	$8.93	WIN	98°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$16.11	$5.27	WIN	94°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$16.11	-$16.28	LOSS	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$37.19	$12.17	WIN	94°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$37.19	-$37.57	LOSS	94°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$20.04	$6.55	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$20.32	$6.65	WIN	94°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$20.32	-$20.53	LOSS	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.930	$14.22	$1.05	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.750	$14.22	$4.65	WIN	94°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.590	$14.22	-$14.37	LOSS	94°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$16.11	$2.78	WIN	94°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$37.19	$6.42	WIN	94°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$20.04	$3.46	WIN	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.620	$20.32	-$20.52	LOSS	94°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-01	96-97°F	NO	0.720	$2.49	$0.95	WIN	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.850	$14.22	$2.46	WIN	94°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.620	$14.22	-$14.36	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.891	$16.11	$1.93	WIN	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$16.11	-$16.23	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-01	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$11.58	$7.60	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.891	$37.19	$4.45	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$37.19	-$37.47	LOSS	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.891	$20.04	$2.40	WIN	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$20.04	-$20.19	LOSS	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-01	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$14.40	$9.46	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$20.32	-$20.48	LOSS	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-01	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$14.61	$9.59	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-01	92-93°F	NO	0.891	$14.22	$1.70	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-01	94-95°F	NO	0.700	$14.22	-$14.33	LOSS	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-01	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$10.22	$6.71	WIN	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$16.11	-$16.30	LOSS	90°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$20.04	-$20.27	LOSS	90°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$20.32	-$20.56	LOSS	90°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.540	$4.00	-$4.05	LOSS	90°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$16.11	$11.98	WIN	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-01	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$37.19	$27.66	WIN	92°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	34/30	yes
CHI	33/30	yes
DAL	33/30	yes
DEN	34/30	yes
LAX	34/30	yes
MIA	34/30	yes
NYC	33/30	yes
SEA	27/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$3,133.93.