Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated 27 min agoPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-31754 decisions20:30:06 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-06-08: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 51 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 5, 'h2': 8, 'h3': 9, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 11}
settle▸ [settle] settled 55, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-06-08T20:00:01Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-06-08 20:30:06 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

108

Settled trades

284

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$1,406.41

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 284 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	51	19	36	57%	-0.1203	-0.1442	-0.1569	-$202.63	$1,684
baseline	secondary	FAIL	50	17	35	62%	-0.1043	-0.1240	+0.0729	-$185.04	$1,774
h1	secondary	FAIL	40	13	32	70%	-0.0293	-0.0486	+0.0825	-$47.77	$1,628
h2	secondary	INCONCLUSIVE	27	15	21	74%	-0.0317	-0.0590	+0.0575	-$34.66	$1,092
h4	secondary	FAIL	64	17	41	56%	-0.1273	-0.1470	+0.2315	-$233.01	$1,830
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	52	27	31	8%	-0.7063	-0.9117	-0.2853	-$703.30	$996

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions108 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-06-08	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$28.12	0.080	0.920
baseline	ATL	2026-06-08	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$28.12	0.212	0.788
baseline	CHI	2026-06-08	78-79°F	NO	0.930	$28.12	0.013	0.987
baseline	DAL	2026-06-08	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$28.12	0.167	0.833
baseline	DEN	2026-06-08	84-85°F	NO	0.750	$28.12	0.175	0.825
baseline	LAX	2026-06-08	68-69°F	NO	0.810	$28.12	0.078	0.922
baseline	MIA	2026-06-08	86-87°F	NO	0.820	$28.12	0.120	0.880
baseline	NYC	2026-06-08	74-75°F	NO	0.810	$28.12	0.090	0.910
h1	ATL	2026-06-08	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$33.34	0.080	0.920
h1	ATL	2026-06-08	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$33.34	0.212	0.788
h1	CHI	2026-06-08	78-79°F	NO	0.930	$33.34	0.013	0.987
h1	DAL	2026-06-08	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$33.34	0.167	0.833
h1	DEN	2026-06-08	84-85°F	NO	0.750	$33.34	0.175	0.825
h1	LAX	2026-06-08	68-69°F	NO	0.810	$33.34	0.078	0.922
h1	MIA	2026-06-08	86-87°F	NO	0.820	$33.34	0.120	0.880
h1	NYC	2026-06-08	74-75°F	NO	0.810	$33.34	0.090	0.910
h2	ATL	2026-06-08	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$33.45	0.080	0.920
h2	CHI	2026-06-08	78-79°F	NO	0.930	$33.45	0.013	0.987
h2	DAL	2026-06-08	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$33.45	0.167	0.833
h2	LAX	2026-06-08	68-69°F	NO	0.810	$33.45	0.078	0.922
h2	MIA	2026-06-08	86-87°F	NO	0.820	$33.45	0.120	0.880
h2	NYC	2026-06-08	74-75°F	NO	0.810	$33.45	0.090	0.910
h2	SEA	2026-06-08	56-57°F	NO	0.850	$33.45	0.058	0.942
h3	ATL	2026-06-08	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$27.77	0.212	0.788
h3	CHI	2026-06-08	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$27.77	0.037	0.963
h3	CHI	2026-06-08	82-83°F	NO	0.670	$27.77	0.107	0.893
h3	DAL	2026-06-08	92-93°F	NO	0.660	$8.61	0.301	0.699
h3	DAL	2026-06-08	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$27.77	0.167	0.833
h3	DEN	2026-06-08	84-85°F	NO	0.750	$27.77	0.175	0.825
h3	LAX	2026-06-08	70-71°F	NO	0.540	$27.77	0.180	0.820
h3	MIA	2026-06-08	88-89°F	NO	0.600	$14.04	0.354	0.646
h3	NYC	2026-06-08	76-77°F	NO	0.580	$27.77	0.216	0.784
h3	SEA	2026-06-08	58-59°F	NO	0.690	$5.13	0.200	0.800
h4	ATL	2026-06-08	74-75°F	NO	0.950	$27.69	0.027	0.973
h4	ATL	2026-06-08	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$27.69	0.080	0.920
h4	ATL	2026-06-08	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$27.69	0.212	0.788
h4	CHI	2026-06-08	75°F or below	NO	0.980	$27.69	0.005	0.995
h4	CHI	2026-06-08	76-77°F	NO	0.989	$27.69	0.005	0.995
h4	CHI	2026-06-08	78-79°F	NO	0.930	$27.69	0.013	0.987
h4	CHI	2026-06-08	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$27.69	0.037	0.963
h4	DAL	2026-06-08	94-95°F	NO	0.750	$27.69	0.167	0.833
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-08	80-81°F	YES	0.260	$5.14	0.320	0.320
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-08	82-83°F	YES	0.109	$7.81	0.213	0.213
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-08	84-85°F	YES	0.013	$4.69	0.081	0.081
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-08	84-85°F	YES	0.180	$5.54	0.250	0.250
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-08	88-89°F	YES	0.039	$9.55	0.174	0.174
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-08	90-91°F	YES	0.004	$4.09	0.064	0.064
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-08	90-91°F	YES	0.200	$4.41	0.255	0.255
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-08	88-89°F	YES	0.180	$6.58	0.262	0.262
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-08	74-75°F	YES	0.039	$13.23	0.226	0.226
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-08	76-77°F	YES	0.027	$5.83	0.111	0.111
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-08	92-93°F	YES	0.029	$5.38	0.106	0.106
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-08	80-81°F	YES	0.100	$7.74	0.204	0.204
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-08	82-83°F	YES	0.011	$4.93	0.083	0.083
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-08	60-61°F	YES	0.280	$8.01	0.377	0.377
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-08	62-63°F	YES	0.090	$10.92	0.237	0.237
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-08	64-65°F	YES	0.012	$4.11	0.072	0.072
baseline	ATL	2026-06-09	82-83°F	NO	0.590	$15.34	0.312	0.688
baseline	CHI	2026-06-09	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$29.44	0.120	0.880
baseline	CHI	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$29.44	0.265	0.735
baseline	DAL	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$28.84	0.288	0.712
baseline	DEN	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$29.44	0.143	0.857
baseline	LAX	2026-06-09	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$29.44	0.094	0.906
baseline	MIA	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$29.44	0.150	0.850
baseline	MIA	2026-06-09	88-89°F	NO	0.480	$18.17	0.385	0.615
baseline	NYC	2026-06-09	78-79°F	NO	0.670	$25.97	0.223	0.777
h1	CHI	2026-06-09	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$34.21	0.120	0.880
h1	DEN	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$34.21	0.143	0.857
h1	LAX	2026-06-09	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$34.21	0.094	0.906
h1	MIA	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$34.21	0.150	0.850
h1	NYC	2026-06-09	78-79°F	NO	0.670	$34.21	0.223	0.777
h2	ATL	2026-06-09	82-83°F	NO	0.590	$19.03	0.312	0.688
h2	CHI	2026-06-09	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$36.51	0.120	0.880
h2	CHI	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$36.51	0.265	0.735
h2	DAL	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$35.76	0.288	0.712
h2	DEN	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$36.51	0.143	0.857
h2	LAX	2026-06-09	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$36.51	0.094	0.906
h2	MIA	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$36.51	0.150	0.850
h2	MIA	2026-06-09	88-89°F	NO	0.480	$22.53	0.385	0.615
h3	ATL	2026-06-09	82-83°F	NO	0.590	$14.94	0.312	0.688
h3	CHI	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$28.67	0.265	0.735
h3	DAL	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$28.08	0.288	0.712
h3	DEN	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$28.67	0.143	0.857
h3	LAX	2026-06-09	70-71°F	NO	0.710	$28.67	0.094	0.906
h3	LAX	2026-06-09	72-73°F	NO	0.540	$28.67	0.205	0.795
h3	MIA	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$28.67	0.150	0.850
h3	MIA	2026-06-09	88-89°F	NO	0.480	$17.69	0.385	0.615
h3	NYC	2026-06-09	78-79°F	NO	0.670	$25.29	0.223	0.777
h4	ATL	2026-06-09	82-83°F	NO	0.590	$14.19	0.312	0.688
h4	CHI	2026-06-09	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$27.23	0.120	0.880
h4	CHI	2026-06-09	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$27.23	0.265	0.735
h4	DAL	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$26.68	0.288	0.712
h4	DAL	2026-06-09	94-95°F	NO	0.820	$23.05	0.146	0.854
h4	DEN	2026-06-09	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$27.23	0.143	0.857
h4	DEN	2026-06-09	94-95°F	NO	0.920	$27.23	0.041	0.959
h4	DEN	2026-06-09	98-99°F	NO	0.990	$27.23	0.005	0.995
h4	LAX	2026-06-09	68-69°F	NO	0.940	$17.77	0.037	0.963
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-09	86-87°F	YES	0.048	$2.83	0.107	0.107
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-09	88-89°F	YES	0.220	$3.41	0.298	0.298
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-09	88-89°F	YES	0.060	$3.47	0.131	0.131
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-09	88-89°F	YES	0.170	$7.01	0.298	0.298
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-09	86-87°F	YES	0.029	$3.94	0.112	0.112
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-09	74-75°F	YES	0.140	$7.39	0.279	0.279
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-09	76-77°F	YES	0.037	$7.95	0.202	0.202
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-09	78-79°F	YES	0.009	$3.91	0.092	0.092
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-09	90-91°F	YES	0.190	$5.86	0.295	0.295
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-09	92-93°F	YES	0.024	$2.89	0.085	0.085
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-09	84-85°F	YES	0.011	$3.18	0.079	0.079

Settlements284 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$30.41	$6.54	WIN	84°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-07	82-83°F	NO	0.690	$30.41	$13.43	WIN	84°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$34.39	$7.39	WIN	84°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-07	82-83°F	NO	0.690	$34.39	$15.18	WIN	84°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$38.20	$8.21	WIN	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-07	82-83°F	NO	0.690	$29.30	$12.94	WIN	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-07	78-79°F	NO	0.940	$26.85	$1.67	WIN	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$26.85	$5.77	WIN	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-07	82-83°F	NO	0.690	$26.85	$11.85	WIN	84°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-07	84-85°F	YES	0.270	$6.45	$17.31	WIN	84°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-07	86-87°F	YES	0.126	$10.43	-$10.66	LOSS	84°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-07	78-79°F	NO	0.760	$30.41	$9.42	WIN	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.640	$30.41	$16.83	WIN	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-07	78-79°F	NO	0.760	$34.39	$10.65	WIN	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.640	$34.39	$19.03	WIN	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-07	78-79°F	NO	0.760	$38.20	$11.83	WIN	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.640	$38.20	$21.14	WIN	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.640	$29.30	$16.22	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-07	78-79°F	NO	0.760	$26.85	$8.32	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-07	80-81°F	NO	0.640	$26.85	$14.86	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-07	84-85°F	YES	0.100	$17.24	-$17.62	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-07	86-87°F	YES	0.020	$9.33	-$9.56	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-07	88°F or higher	YES	0.009	$5.41	-$5.54	LOSS	82°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-07	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$26.45	$10.61	WIN	92°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-07	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$29.91	$12.00	WIN	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-07	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$25.48	$10.22	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-07	92-93°F	NO	0.870	$26.85	-$26.94	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-07	86-87°F	YES	0.100	$9.85	-$10.07	LOSS	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-07	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$30.41	-$30.71	LOSS	92°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-07	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$34.39	-$34.72	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-07	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$29.30	-$29.58	LOSS	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-07	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$26.85	-$27.11	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-07	86-87°F	YES	0.010	$5.82	-$5.96	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-07	88-89°F	YES	0.110	$11.54	-$11.80	LOSS	92°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-07	68-69°F	NO	0.750	$30.41	$9.95	WIN	70°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-07	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$30.41	-$30.73	LOSS	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-07	68-69°F	NO	0.750	$34.39	$11.25	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-07	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$34.39	-$34.75	LOSS	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-07	68-69°F	NO	0.750	$38.20	$12.49	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-07	68-69°F	NO	0.750	$29.30	$9.58	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-07	70-71°F	NO	0.580	$29.30	-$29.60	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-07	68-69°F	NO	0.750	$26.85	$8.78	WIN	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-07	72-73°F	YES	0.220	$4.42	-$4.51	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-07	74-75°F	YES	0.054	$13.65	-$13.97	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-07	76-77°F	YES	0.010	$7.11	-$7.29	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-07	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$3.96	$2.01	WIN	88°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-07	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$4.48	$2.27	WIN	88°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-07	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$29.30	$14.84	WIN	88°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-07	88-89°F	NO	0.540	$12.11	-$12.25	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-07	90-91°F	YES	0.090	$18.97	-$19.41	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-07	92-93°F	YES	0.005	$6.71	-$6.88	LOSS	88°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-07	82-83°F	NO	0.830	$38.20	$7.66	WIN	80°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-07	84-85°F	NO	0.610	$21.00	$13.22	WIN	80°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-07	88-89°F	YES	0.080	$11.25	-$11.51	LOSS	80°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-07	60-61°F	NO	0.890	$38.20	$4.62	WIN	64°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$38.72	-$38.98	LOSS	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-06	88-89°F	NO	0.560	$22.70	$17.59	WIN	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$48.77	-$49.10	LOSS	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$39.69	-$39.96	LOSS	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-06	88-89°F	NO	0.560	$23.28	$18.03	WIN	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.730	$30.84	-$31.04	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-06	88-89°F	NO	0.560	$18.08	$14.01	WIN	86°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-06	90-91°F	YES	0.120	$23.02	-$23.53	LOSS	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-06	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$38.72	$11.34	WIN	84°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$38.72	-$39.01	LOSS	84°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-06	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$48.77	$14.29	WIN	84°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$48.77	-$49.13	LOSS	84°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-06	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$36.46	$10.68	WIN	84°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$39.69	-$39.99	LOSS	84°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-06	80-81°F	NO	0.930	$30.84	$2.27	WIN	84°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-06	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$30.84	$9.03	WIN	84°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.700	$30.84	-$31.07	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-06	86-87°F	YES	0.230	$16.50	-$16.82	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-06	88-89°F	YES	0.070	$25.68	-$26.28	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-06	90°F or higher	YES	0.016	$19.74	-$20.23	LOSS	84°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.650	$38.72	$20.51	WIN	88°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.650	$48.77	$25.83	WIN	88°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.650	$39.69	$21.03	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.650	$30.84	$16.33	WIN	88°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-06	82-83°F	YES	0.130	$14.41	-$14.72	LOSS	88°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-06	70-71°F	NO	0.650	$38.72	-$39.06	LOSS	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-06	70-71°F	NO	0.650	$48.77	-$49.19	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-06	68-69°F	NO	0.600	$39.69	$26.07	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-06	70-71°F	NO	0.650	$39.69	-$40.04	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-06	66-67°F	NO	0.930	$30.84	$2.27	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-06	68-69°F	NO	0.600	$10.76	$7.07	WIN	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-06	72-73°F	YES	0.150	$22.45	-$22.93	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-06	74-75°F	YES	0.032	$30.18	-$30.91	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-06	76-77°F	YES	0.007	$15.16	-$15.53	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$38.72	$10.09	WIN	86°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.460	$24.52	-$24.85	LOSS	86°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$48.77	$12.71	WIN	86°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-06	84-85°F	NO	0.790	$36.46	$9.50	WIN	86°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.460	$23.09	-$23.40	LOSS	86°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-06	86-87°F	NO	0.460	$25.13	-$25.47	LOSS	86°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-06	88-89°F	YES	0.170	$24.05	-$24.55	LOSS	86°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-06	90-91°F	YES	0.014	$11.74	-$12.03	LOSS	86°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-06	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$30.22	-$30.48	LOSS	90°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-06	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$48.77	-$49.19	LOSS	90°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-06	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$28.42	-$28.66	LOSS	90°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-06	96-97°F	YES	0.010	$12.60	-$12.91	LOSS	90°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-06	54-55°F	NO	0.870	$48.77	$7.13	WIN	62°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-06	54-55°F	NO	0.870	$36.46	$5.33	WIN	62°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-06	58-59°F	YES	0.310	$14.71	-$14.96	LOSS	62°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-06	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$24.08	$12.76	WIN	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-06	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$18.17	-$18.34	LOSS	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-06	90-91°F	NO	0.650	$18.71	$9.91	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-06	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$14.12	-$14.25	LOSS	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$36.26	-$36.58	LOSS	84°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$41.70	-$42.08	LOSS	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$36.10	-$36.43	LOSS	84°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-05	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$5.94	$3.01	WIN	84°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$32.79	-$33.08	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-05	88-89°F	YES	0.100	$13.59	-$13.89	LOSS	84°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-05	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$36.26	-$36.42	LOSS	82°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$36.26	$18.37	WIN	82°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-05	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$41.87	-$42.05	LOSS	82°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-05	82-83°F	NO	0.820	$41.70	-$41.89	LOSS	82°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$41.70	$21.13	WIN	82°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$36.10	$18.29	WIN	82°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.660	$32.79	$16.61	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-05	88°F or higher	YES	0.120	$23.37	-$23.88	LOSS	82°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-05	68-69°F	NO	0.860	$36.26	$5.78	WIN	70°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-05	72-73°F	NO	0.740	$36.26	$12.50	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-05	68-69°F	NO	0.860	$41.87	$6.67	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-05	72-73°F	NO	0.740	$41.87	$14.44	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-05	68-69°F	NO	0.860	$41.70	$6.64	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-05	72-73°F	NO	0.740	$41.70	$14.38	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-05	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$36.10	-$36.44	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-05	72-73°F	NO	0.740	$36.10	$12.45	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-05	68-69°F	NO	0.860	$32.79	$5.22	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-05	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$32.79	-$33.09	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-05	72-73°F	NO	0.740	$32.79	$11.31	WIN	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$36.26	-$36.67	LOSS	84°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$41.87	-$42.35	LOSS	84°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$36.10	-$36.52	LOSS	84°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-05	84-85°F	NO	0.540	$32.79	-$33.16	LOSS	84°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-05	86-87°F	NO	0.900	$32.79	$3.56	WIN	84°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-05	80-81°F	YES	0.064	$19.15	-$19.60	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-05	82-83°F	YES	0.330	$9.85	-$10.02	LOSS	84°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-05	72°F or higher	NO	0.003	$6.59	-$6.75	LOSS	72°F
h4	SEA	2026-06-05	69°F or below	NO	0.017	$4.36	-$4.46	LOSS	69°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.580	$37.43	-$37.82	LOSS	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$37.43	$18.13	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$42.75	$20.70	WIN	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.580	$38.85	-$39.26	LOSS	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$38.85	$18.81	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.580	$29.65	-$29.96	LOSS	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.670	$29.65	$14.36	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-04	78-79°F	YES	0.030	$10.07	-$10.31	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-04	80-81°F	YES	0.120	$20.07	-$20.51	LOSS	82°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$37.43	$10.35	WIN	86°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$37.43	$20.72	WIN	86°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$42.75	$11.82	WIN	86°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$42.75	$23.66	WIN	86°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$38.15	$10.55	WIN	86°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$38.85	$21.50	WIN	86°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$29.65	$8.20	WIN	86°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$29.65	$16.41	WIN	86°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-04	88-89°F	YES	0.110	$12.70	-$12.98	LOSS	86°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.510	$25.01	-$25.31	LOSS	82°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.510	$25.96	-$26.27	LOSS	82°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-04	82-83°F	NO	0.510	$17.88	-$18.10	LOSS	82°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.680	$37.43	$17.31	WIN	86°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-04	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$32.69	-$32.97	LOSS	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.680	$42.75	$19.78	WIN	86°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.680	$38.15	$17.65	WIN	86°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-04	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$33.32	-$33.60	LOSS	86°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-04	84-85°F	NO	0.680	$38.85	$17.97	WIN	86°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-04	86-87°F	NO	0.660	$33.93	-$34.22	LOSS	86°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-04	88-89°F	YES	0.190	$18.37	-$18.74	LOSS	86°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-04	90-91°F	YES	0.039	$18.77	-$19.22	LOSS	86°F
baseline	SEA	2026-06-04	66-67°F	NO	0.660	$33.66	$17.06	WIN	68°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-04	66-67°F	NO	0.660	$38.45	$19.48	WIN	68°F
h3	SEA	2026-06-04	66-67°F	NO	0.660	$17.81	$9.02	WIN	68°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-04	68-69°F	YES	0.300	$7.68	$17.79	WIN	68°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-04	70-71°F	NO	0.680	$38.85	-$39.16	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-04	72-73°F	NO	0.680	$38.85	$17.97	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-04	68-69°F	NO	0.950	$29.65	$1.52	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-04	70-71°F	NO	0.680	$29.65	-$29.88	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-04	72-73°F	NO	0.680	$29.65	$13.71	WIN	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-04	66°F or higher	NO	0.003	$5.95	-$6.10	LOSS	66°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-04	74°F or higher	NO	0.004	$5.82	-$5.96	LOSS	74°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.750	$47.90	$15.67	WIN	78°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.750	$51.40	$16.81	WIN	78°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.750	$50.14	$16.40	WIN	78°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-03	85°F or below	NO	0.070	$16.36	-$16.74	LOSS	85°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-03	85°F or below	NO	0.070	$17.56	-$17.96	LOSS	85°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-03	85°F or below	NO	0.070	$15.30	-$15.66	LOSS	85°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$47.90	$12.48	WIN	82°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$47.90	$28.91	WIN	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$51.40	$13.39	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$44.93	$11.71	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$44.93	$27.11	WIN	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$50.14	$30.26	WIN	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-03	82-83°F	NO	0.700	$4.31	-$4.34	LOSS	82°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-03	78-79°F	NO	0.790	$44.80	$11.67	WIN	82°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-03	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$44.80	$27.03	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-03	84-85°F	YES	0.060	$23.61	-$24.17	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-03	86°F or higher	YES	0.013	$19.26	-$19.73	LOSS	82°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	7/30	no
CHI	6/30	no
DAL	7/30	no
DEN	7/30	no
LAX	7/30	no
MIA	7/30	no
NYC	6/30	no
SEA	5/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$1,406.41.