Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-311986 decisions14:02:23 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-06-23: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 45 positions {'baseline': 8, 'h1': 5, 'h2': 6, 'h3': 12, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 5}
settle▸ [settle] settled 48, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-06-24T14:00:01Z] forward-collection done: 16 snapshots written
rendered 2026-06-24 14:02:23 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

1050

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$2,336.05

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 1050 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	190	12	142	62%	-0.0474	-0.0552	-0.0859	-$242.22	$5,107
baseline	secondary	FAIL	175	8	121	65%	-0.0784	-0.0852	-0.0113	-$381.00	$4,860
h1	secondary	FAIL	142	5	111	73%	-0.0148	-0.0207	-0.0376	-$74.59	$5,049
h2	secondary	FAIL	124	6	95	70%	-0.0599	-0.0688	-0.0525	-$252.22	$4,211
h4	secondary	FAIL	197	9	110	66%	-0.0920	-0.0991	+0.0789	-$439.02	$4,772
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	222	5	129	9%	-0.5944	-0.7196	-0.0792	-$947.00	$1,593

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions45 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$23.02	0.200	0.800
baseline	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$23.02	0.083	0.917
baseline	LAX	2026-06-24	68-69°F	NO	0.889	$23.02	0.060	0.940
baseline	MIA	2026-06-24	90-91°F	NO	0.510	$16.15	0.380	0.620
baseline	MIA	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$23.02	0.304	0.696
baseline	NYC	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$23.02	0.271	0.729
baseline	SEA	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$23.02	0.071	0.929
baseline	SEA	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$23.02	0.236	0.764
h1	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$34.92	0.200	0.800
h1	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$34.92	0.083	0.917
h1	LAX	2026-06-24	68-69°F	NO	0.889	$34.92	0.060	0.940
h1	SEA	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$34.92	0.071	0.929
h1	SEA	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$34.92	0.236	0.764
h2	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$29.22	0.083	0.917
h2	LAX	2026-06-24	68-69°F	NO	0.889	$29.22	0.060	0.940
h2	MIA	2026-06-24	90-91°F	NO	0.510	$20.50	0.380	0.620
h2	MIA	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$29.22	0.304	0.696
h2	NYC	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$29.22	0.271	0.729
h2	SEA	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.870	$29.22	0.071	0.929
h3	ATL	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$27.84	0.169	0.831
h3	ATL	2026-06-24	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$1.02	0.310	0.690
h3	CHI	2026-06-24	76-77°F	NO	0.700	$5.17	0.284	0.716
h3	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$27.84	0.200	0.800
h3	DAL	2026-06-24	94-95°F	NO	0.640	$16.02	0.311	0.689
h3	DEN	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.730	$7.96	0.250	0.750
h3	LAX	2026-06-24	70-71°F	NO	0.520	$27.84	0.147	0.853
h3	MIA	2026-06-24	90-91°F	NO	0.510	$19.53	0.380	0.620
h3	MIA	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$27.84	0.304	0.696
h3	NYC	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$27.84	0.271	0.729
h3	NYC	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.710	$1.61	0.282	0.718
h3	SEA	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.640	$27.84	0.236	0.764
h4	ATL	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.920	$19.93	0.060	0.940
h4	ATL	2026-06-24	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$19.93	0.169	0.831
h4	DAL	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$19.93	0.200	0.800
h4	DEN	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.860	$19.93	0.083	0.917
h4	DEN	2026-06-24	80-81°F	NO	0.940	$19.93	0.024	0.976
h4	LAX	2026-06-24	70-71°F	NO	0.520	$19.93	0.147	0.853
h4	MIA	2026-06-24	90-91°F	NO	0.510	$13.99	0.380	0.620
h4	MIA	2026-06-24	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$19.93	0.304	0.696
h4	NYC	2026-06-24	82-83°F	NO	0.640	$5.95	0.271	0.729
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-24	88-89°F	YES	0.158	$1.32	0.257	0.257
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-24	74-75°F	YES	0.090	$2.06	0.254	0.254
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-24	76-77°F	YES	0.010	$1.51	0.139	0.139
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-24	88-89°F	YES	0.060	$1.01	0.143	0.143
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-24	88-89°F	YES	0.110	$1.16	0.202	0.202

Settlements1050 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$22.83	-$22.97	LOSS	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$22.83	$13.20	WIN	82°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$33.81	-$34.00	LOSS	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$30.87	-$31.05	LOSS	82°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$30.87	$17.84	WIN	82°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$29.07	$16.80	WIN	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.770	$20.42	-$20.54	LOSS	82°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.630	$20.42	$11.80	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-23	88-89°F	YES	0.048	$1.67	-$1.71	LOSS	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$22.83	$11.06	WIN	74°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$33.81	$16.37	WIN	74°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$29.07	$14.08	WIN	74°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-23	70-71°F	NO	0.850	$20.42	$3.53	WIN	74°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-23	72-73°F	NO	0.670	$20.42	$9.89	WIN	74°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-23	76-77°F	YES	0.100	$1.20	-$1.23	LOSS	74°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$22.83	$5.95	WIN	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$20.48	-$20.66	LOSS	92°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$33.81	$8.81	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$30.87	$8.04	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$27.69	-$27.93	LOSS	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$26.07	-$26.30	LOSS	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-23	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$20.42	$5.32	WIN	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.650	$18.32	-$18.48	LOSS	92°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$22.83	$5.59	WIN	82°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$33.81	$8.28	WIN	82°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$30.87	$7.56	WIN	82°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-23	82-83°F	NO	0.710	$7.67	-$7.73	LOSS	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-23	84-85°F	NO	0.800	$20.42	$5.00	WIN	82°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-23	86-87°F	NO	0.950	$20.42	$1.05	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-23	80-81°F	YES	0.230	$1.11	-$1.13	LOSS	82°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$22.83	$4.26	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$33.81	$6.30	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$30.87	$5.76	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-23	70-71°F	NO	0.430	$29.07	-$29.48	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-23	68-69°F	NO	0.840	$2.10	$0.39	WIN	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-23	76-77°F	YES	0.009	$1.54	-$1.58	LOSS	70°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$22.83	-$22.94	LOSS	74°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-23	76-77°F	NO	0.660	$2.35	$1.19	WIN	74°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$33.81	-$33.96	LOSS	74°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-23	76-77°F	NO	0.660	$33.81	$17.13	WIN	74°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-23	74-75°F	NO	0.820	$30.87	-$31.01	LOSS	74°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-23	76-77°F	NO	0.660	$29.07	$14.73	WIN	74°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-23	80-81°F	YES	0.070	$1.90	-$1.94	LOSS	74°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-23	92-93°F	NO	0.460	$29.07	$33.73	WIN	90°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-23	88-89°F	YES	0.060	$1.05	-$1.08	LOSS	90°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-23	90-91°F	YES	0.260	$1.74	$4.93	WIN	90°F
h3	SEA	2026-06-23	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$2.63	$1.59	WIN	88°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-23	84-85°F	YES	0.200	$1.34	-$1.37	LOSS	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$26.13	$11.00	WIN	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$21.06	-$21.25	LOSS	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$33.10	$13.94	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$27.31	$11.50	WIN	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$22.01	-$22.20	LOSS	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$28.60	$12.04	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$23.05	-$23.25	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-22	84-85°F	NO	0.934	$21.43	$1.48	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-22	86-87°F	NO	0.700	$21.43	$9.02	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.650	$17.27	-$17.42	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	YES	0.200	$1.77	-$1.81	LOSS	88°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$26.13	$6.40	WIN	94°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$22.49	$9.47	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$33.10	$8.11	WIN	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$28.50	$12.00	WIN	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$27.31	$6.69	WIN	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$24.62	$10.37	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-22	90-91°F	NO	0.800	$21.43	$5.25	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.700	$18.45	$7.77	WIN	94°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-22	96-97°F	YES	0.120	$1.07	-$1.09	LOSS	94°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.680	$26.13	-$26.34	LOSS	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.680	$33.10	-$33.37	LOSS	88°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.680	$28.60	-$28.83	LOSS	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-22	88-89°F	NO	0.680	$21.43	-$21.60	LOSS	88°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-22	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$26.13	$9.98	WIN	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-22	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$33.10	$12.64	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-22	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$27.31	$10.43	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-22	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$28.60	$10.92	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-22	70-71°F	NO	0.460	$28.60	-$28.98	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-22	68-69°F	NO	0.720	$21.43	$8.18	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-22	70-71°F	NO	0.460	$16.43	-$16.65	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-22	72-73°F	YES	0.140	$2.04	-$2.09	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-22	74-75°F	YES	0.016	$2.35	-$2.41	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-22	94-95°F	NO	0.810	$26.13	$6.00	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.490	$22.12	-$22.41	LOSS	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-22	94-95°F	NO	0.810	$33.10	$7.61	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-22	94-95°F	NO	0.810	$27.31	$6.28	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.490	$23.12	-$23.42	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-22	92-93°F	NO	0.490	$24.21	-$24.52	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-22	88-89°F	YES	0.016	$1.36	-$1.39	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-22	90-91°F	YES	0.220	$2.01	-$2.05	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-22	74-75°F	NO	0.750	$12.71	$4.16	WIN	72°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-22	74-75°F	NO	0.750	$33.10	$10.83	WIN	72°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-22	74-75°F	NO	0.750	$27.31	$8.93	WIN	72°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-22	74-75°F	NO	0.750	$14.36	$4.70	WIN	72°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-22	78-79°F	YES	0.200	$1.36	-$1.39	LOSS	72°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-22	82-83°F	YES	0.009	$1.58	-$1.62	LOSS	72°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-22	84-85°F	NO	0.580	$33.10	-$33.45	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-22	80-81°F	YES	0.090	$1.62	-$1.65	LOSS	84°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-22	70-71°F	NO	0.670	$16.20	$7.85	WIN	72°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-22	72-73°F	NO	0.690	$11.94	-$12.03	LOSS	72°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-22	70-71°F	NO	0.670	$12.14	$5.88	WIN	72°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-21	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$22.65	-$22.83	LOSS	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-21	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$22.65	$15.51	WIN	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-21	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$32.28	-$32.54	LOSS	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-21	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$33.05	-$33.32	LOSS	86°F
h2	ATL	2026-06-21	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$33.05	$22.63	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-21	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$27.36	-$27.58	LOSS	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-21	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$27.36	$18.73	WIN	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-21	84-85°F	NO	0.927	$22.42	$1.72	WIN	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-21	86-87°F	NO	0.680	$22.42	-$22.60	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-21	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$22.42	$15.35	WIN	86°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-21	90-91°F	YES	0.140	$4.10	-$4.19	LOSS	86°F
yes_diag	ATL	2026-06-21	92-93°F	YES	0.038	$2.40	-$2.46	LOSS	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-21	70-71°F	NO	0.830	$22.65	-$22.75	LOSS	70°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-21	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$22.65	$14.87	WIN	70°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-21	70-71°F	NO	0.830	$32.28	-$32.42	LOSS	70°F
h1	CHI	2026-06-21	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$32.28	$21.20	WIN	70°F
h2	CHI	2026-06-21	70-71°F	NO	0.830	$33.05	-$33.19	LOSS	70°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-21	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$27.36	$17.96	WIN	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-21	68-69°F	NO	0.940	$22.42	$1.40	WIN	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-21	70-71°F	NO	0.830	$22.42	-$22.52	LOSS	70°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-21	72-73°F	NO	0.600	$22.42	$14.72	WIN	70°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-21	74-75°F	YES	0.220	$1.52	-$1.55	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-21	76-77°F	YES	0.060	$3.11	-$3.19	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	CHI	2026-06-21	78-79°F	YES	0.008	$1.45	-$1.48	LOSS	70°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-21	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$22.65	-$22.87	LOSS	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-06-21	94-95°F	NO	0.770	$22.65	$6.64	WIN	92°F
h1	DAL	2026-06-21	94-95°F	NO	0.770	$32.28	$9.46	WIN	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-21	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$33.05	-$33.37	LOSS	92°F
h2	DAL	2026-06-21	94-95°F	NO	0.770	$33.05	$9.68	WIN	92°F
h3	DAL	2026-06-21	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$27.36	-$27.62	LOSS	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-21	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$22.42	-$22.63	LOSS	92°F
h4	DAL	2026-06-21	94-95°F	NO	0.770	$22.42	$6.57	WIN	92°F
yes_diag	DAL	2026-06-21	88-89°F	YES	0.020	$3.06	-$3.14	LOSS	92°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-21	68-69°F	NO	0.660	$22.65	$11.48	WIN	70°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-21	70-71°F	NO	0.550	$20.34	-$20.57	LOSS	70°F
h1	LAX	2026-06-21	68-69°F	NO	0.660	$32.28	$16.36	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-21	68-69°F	NO	0.660	$27.36	$13.86	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-21	70-71°F	NO	0.550	$24.57	-$24.84	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-21	72-73°F	YES	0.110	$2.90	-$2.97	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-21	74-75°F	YES	0.040	$1.59	-$1.63	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-21	92-93°F	NO	0.480	$2.31	$2.47	WIN	94°F
h2	MIA	2026-06-21	92-93°F	NO	0.480	$33.05	$35.38	WIN	94°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-21	92-93°F	NO	0.480	$27.36	$29.28	WIN	94°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-21	88-89°F	YES	0.050	$2.10	-$2.15	LOSS	94°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-21	90-91°F	YES	0.240	$3.60	-$3.67	LOSS	94°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-21	80-81°F	NO	0.874	$32.28	$4.55	WIN	84°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-21	82-83°F	NO	0.620	$32.28	$19.48	WIN	84°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-21	80-81°F	NO	0.874	$33.05	$4.66	WIN	84°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-21	82-83°F	NO	0.620	$16.05	$9.68	WIN	84°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-21	86-87°F	YES	0.060	$4.49	-$4.60	LOSS	84°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-21	88-89°F	YES	0.025	$1.87	-$1.91	LOSS	84°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-21	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$32.28	$10.00	WIN	76°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-21	78-79°F	NO	0.580	$12.55	$8.95	WIN	76°F
h2	SEA	2026-06-21	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$20.51	$6.35	WIN	76°F
yes_diag	SEA	2026-06-21	76-77°F	YES	0.230	$1.59	$5.30	WIN	76°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-21	88-89°F	NO	0.590	$14.10	$9.65	WIN	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-20	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$29.56	$10.19	WIN	86°F
baseline	ATL	2026-06-20	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$14.50	-$14.64	LOSS	86°F
h1	ATL	2026-06-20	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$40.68	$14.03	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-20	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$33.40	$11.52	WIN	86°F
h3	ATL	2026-06-20	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$16.39	-$16.55	LOSS	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-20	84-85°F	NO	0.740	$20.93	$7.22	WIN	86°F
h4	ATL	2026-06-20	86-87°F	NO	0.620	$10.27	-$10.37	LOSS	86°F
baseline	CHI	2026-06-20	78-79°F	NO	0.590	$29.46	$20.17	WIN	76°F
h3	CHI	2026-06-20	78-79°F	NO	0.590	$33.29	$22.79	WIN	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-20	76-77°F	NO	0.760	$13.89	-$13.97	LOSS	76°F
h4	CHI	2026-06-20	78-79°F	NO	0.590	$20.86	$14.28	WIN	76°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-20	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$29.56	$7.70	WIN	88°F
baseline	DEN	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$29.56	$13.67	WIN	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-20	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$40.68	$10.60	WIN	88°F
h1	DEN	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$40.68	$18.82	WIN	88°F
h2	DEN	2026-06-20	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$35.58	$9.27	WIN	88°F
h3	DEN	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$33.40	$15.45	WIN	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-20	90-91°F	NO	0.790	$20.93	$5.45	WIN	88°F
h4	DEN	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$20.93	$9.68	WIN	88°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-20	94-95°F	YES	0.250	$4.88	-$4.97	LOSS	88°F
yes_diag	DEN	2026-06-20	96-97°F	YES	0.120	$3.60	-$3.68	LOSS	88°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-20	68-69°F	NO	0.590	$29.56	$20.24	WIN	70°F
baseline	LAX	2026-06-20	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$20.49	-$20.67	LOSS	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-20	68-69°F	NO	0.590	$35.58	$24.36	WIN	70°F
h2	LAX	2026-06-20	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$24.66	-$24.89	LOSS	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-20	68-69°F	NO	0.590	$33.40	$22.87	WIN	70°F
h3	LAX	2026-06-20	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$23.15	-$23.37	LOSS	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-20	68-69°F	NO	0.590	$20.93	$14.33	WIN	70°F
h4	LAX	2026-06-20	70-71°F	NO	0.630	$14.51	-$14.64	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-20	72-73°F	YES	0.060	$3.65	-$3.74	LOSS	70°F
yes_diag	LAX	2026-06-20	74-75°F	YES	0.015	$1.83	-$1.88	LOSS	70°F
baseline	MIA	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$29.56	-$29.87	LOSS	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$40.68	-$41.11	LOSS	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$33.40	-$33.75	LOSS	92°F
h4	MIA	2026-06-20	92-93°F	NO	0.580	$20.93	-$21.15	LOSS	92°F
yes_diag	MIA	2026-06-20	88-89°F	YES	0.070	$5.07	-$5.18	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-06-20	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$24.22	$7.10	WIN	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-06-20	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$40.68	$11.92	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-06-20	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$35.58	$10.42	WIN	82°F
h3	NYC	2026-06-20	82-83°F	NO	0.580	$33.40	-$33.75	LOSS	82°F
h4	NYC	2026-06-20	80-81°F	NO	0.770	$3.27	$0.96	WIN	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-20	86-87°F	YES	0.080	$4.64	-$4.74	LOSS	82°F
yes_diag	NYC	2026-06-20	88-89°F	YES	0.015	$2.38	-$2.44	LOSS	82°F
h1	SEA	2026-06-20	72-73°F	NO	0.710	$40.68	$16.32	WIN	70°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	22/30	no
CHI	21/30	no
DAL	21/30	no
DEN	22/30	no
LAX	22/30	no
MIA	22/30	no
NYC	21/30	no
SEA	18/30	no

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$2,336.05.