Forward Shadow Dashboard

WX·SHADOWLIVEdata feed updated just nowPAPER · NO REAL MONEYCAL NCEI_GHCND (pre-May train; KBKF=IEM fallback) 2026-05-314360 decisions08:02:50 UTC

decide▸ [decide] /home/ubuntu/weather-shadow/weather-trader/data/forward_collection/2026-07-20: 8 decision snapshots, 88 new decision rows, opened 43 positions {'baseline': 9, 'h1': 8, 'h2': 7, 'h3': 10, 'h4': 9, 'yes_diag': 0}
settle▸ [settle] settled 40, unresolved 0, fetch_errors 0
collect▸ [2026-07-21T08:00:03Z] forward-collection done: 19 snapshots written
rendered 2026-07-21 08:02:50 UTC · read-only, recomputes nothing

Books

Open positions

Settled trades

2180

Σ Settled P&L

▼ -$3,712.53

Primary book h3

FAIL

Per-book P&L6 parallel hypotheses · h3 primary · 2180 settled

Book	Role	Verdict	N	Open	City-days	Win%	Net ROI	LOO ROI	Brier	P&L	Staked
h3	primary	FAIL	447	10	312	59%	-0.0841	-0.0888	-0.1430	-$733.20	$8,722
baseline	secondary	FAIL	410	9	281	66%	-0.0838	-0.0879	-0.0170	-$674.76	$8,051
h1	secondary	FAIL	327	8	251	75%	-0.0014	-0.0041	-0.0321	-$16.62	$12,024
h2	secondary	FAIL	306	7	230	71%	-0.0622	-0.0669	-0.0402	-$496.99	$7,993
h4	secondary	FAIL	434	9	229	65%	-0.1110	-0.1157	-0.0151	-$810.90	$7,306
yes_diag	diagnostic	FAIL	256	0	155	9%	-0.5969	-0.7183	-0.1445	-$980.07	$1,642

PASS-SCREEN needs Brier>0 AND ROI>0 AND leave-one-out ROI>0, with ≥30 settled trades AND ≥12 distinct city-days. INCONCLUSIVE = below that floor (where all books sit early). A PASS-SCREEN is not graduation or a real-money trigger.

Equity curvescumulative settled P&L over time · h3 vs baseline = the headline

h3 (primary)baseline (control)h1h2h4yes_diag

Open positions43 live · awaiting resolution

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P(yes)	P(win)
baseline	ATL	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$9.42	0.303	0.697
baseline	ATL	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$10.26	0.270	0.730
baseline	CHI	2026-07-21	84-85°F	NO	0.570	$6.79	0.307	0.693
baseline	CHI	2026-07-21	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$12.14	0.176	0.824
baseline	DAL	2026-07-21	102-103°F	NO	0.760	$12.14	0.075	0.925
baseline	DEN	2026-07-21	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$12.14	0.165	0.835
baseline	DEN	2026-07-21	96-97°F	NO	0.900	$12.14	0.049	0.951
baseline	MIA	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$12.14	0.200	0.800
baseline	MIA	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.460	$9.94	0.408	0.592
h1	CHI	2026-07-21	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$36.84	0.176	0.824
h1	DAL	2026-07-21	102-103°F	NO	0.760	$36.84	0.075	0.925
h1	DEN	2026-07-21	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$36.84	0.165	0.835
h1	DEN	2026-07-21	96-97°F	NO	0.900	$36.84	0.049	0.951
h1	MIA	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$36.84	0.200	0.800
h1	NYC	2026-07-21	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$36.84	0.063	0.937
h1	NYC	2026-07-21	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$36.84	0.167	0.833
h1	SEA	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.640	$36.84	0.194	0.806
h2	ATL	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$15.32	0.303	0.697
h2	ATL	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$16.67	0.270	0.730
h2	DAL	2026-07-21	102-103°F	NO	0.760	$19.72	0.075	0.925
h2	DEN	2026-07-21	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$19.72	0.165	0.835
h2	DEN	2026-07-21	96-97°F	NO	0.900	$19.72	0.049	0.951
h2	NYC	2026-07-21	76-77°F	NO	0.810	$19.72	0.063	0.937
h2	NYC	2026-07-21	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$19.72	0.167	0.833
h3	ATL	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$7.40	0.303	0.697
h3	ATL	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$8.06	0.270	0.730
h3	CHI	2026-07-21	84-85°F	NO	0.570	$5.34	0.307	0.693
h3	CHI	2026-07-21	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$9.54	0.176	0.824
h3	DAL	2026-07-21	104-105°F	NO	0.600	$9.54	0.195	0.805
h3	DEN	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.620	$1.83	0.348	0.652
h3	DEN	2026-07-21	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$9.54	0.165	0.835
h3	LAX	2026-07-21	78-79°F	NO	0.750	$9.54	0.036	0.964
h3	LAX	2026-07-21	80-81°F	NO	0.510	$9.54	0.092	0.908
h3	MIA	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.730	$5.98	0.200	0.800
h4	ATL	2026-07-21	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$5.22	0.303	0.697
h4	ATL	2026-07-21	92-93°F	NO	0.670	$5.69	0.270	0.730
h4	CHI	2026-07-21	84-85°F	NO	0.570	$3.77	0.307	0.693
h4	CHI	2026-07-21	86-87°F	NO	0.740	$6.73	0.176	0.824
h4	DAL	2026-07-21	102-103°F	NO	0.760	$6.73	0.075	0.925
h4	DAL	2026-07-21	104-105°F	NO	0.600	$6.73	0.195	0.805
h4	DEN	2026-07-21	94-95°F	NO	0.670	$6.73	0.165	0.835
h4	DEN	2026-07-21	96-97°F	NO	0.900	$6.73	0.049	0.951
h4	LAX	2026-07-21	78-79°F	NO	0.750	$5.51	0.036	0.964

Settlements2180 resolved

Book	City	Target	Bucket	Side	Entry	Size	P&L	Result	WU high
baseline	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$11.46	-$11.58	LOSS	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$18.08	-$18.27	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$9.18	-$9.28	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.840	$5.39	$1.01	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.570	$6.89	-$6.97	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$11.46	-$11.49	LOSS	82°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$11.46	$4.38	WIN	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$37.47	-$37.59	LOSS	82°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$37.47	$14.31	WIN	82°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$18.08	-$18.13	LOSS	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-20	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$9.18	$4.05	WIN	82°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$9.18	$3.51	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-20	82-83°F	NO	0.880	$6.89	-$6.91	LOSS	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-20	84-85°F	NO	0.690	$6.89	$3.04	WIN	82°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-20	86-87°F	NO	0.720	$6.89	$2.63	WIN	82°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$11.46	$2.46	WIN	102°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$37.47	$8.06	WIN	102°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$18.08	$3.89	WIN	102°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.530	$9.18	$8.03	WIN	102°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.820	$6.89	$1.48	WIN	102°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.530	$6.89	$6.03	WIN	102°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$6.51	$5.25	WIN	100°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$10.28	$8.29	WIN	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$5.22	$4.21	WIN	100°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$9.18	-$9.27	LOSS	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-20	98-99°F	NO	0.550	$3.92	$3.16	WIN	100°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-20	100-101°F	NO	0.610	$4.48	-$4.52	LOSS	100°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-20	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$11.46	$2.81	WIN	80°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-20	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$37.47	$9.18	WIN	80°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-20	76-77°F	NO	0.800	$18.08	$4.43	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$9.18	$5.08	WIN	80°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-20	80-81°F	NO	0.720	$7.28	-$7.33	LOSS	80°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$11.46	$5.80	WIN	92°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-20	92-93°F	NO	0.500	$8.83	-$8.94	LOSS	92°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$37.47	$18.99	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-20	90-91°F	NO	0.660	$5.86	$2.97	WIN	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.830	$7.57	$1.52	WIN	82°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.830	$37.47	$7.52	WIN	82°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-20	78-79°F	NO	0.830	$18.08	$3.63	WIN	82°F
h2	SEA	2026-07-20	84-85°F	NO	0.650	$15.22	$8.06	WIN	82°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-19	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$7.19	$4.53	WIN	90°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$12.10	$4.17	WIN	90°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$32.06	$11.06	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-19	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$6.36	$4.00	WIN	90°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$10.70	$3.69	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-19	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$4.29	$2.70	WIN	90°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-19	94-95°F	NO	0.740	$7.22	$2.49	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$12.10	-$12.17	LOSS	78°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$9.70	$8.15	WIN	78°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$32.06	-$32.25	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$19.77	-$19.89	LOSS	78°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$15.85	$13.32	WIN	78°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$8.58	$7.21	WIN	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.770	$7.22	-$7.26	LOSS	78°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.540	$5.79	$4.86	WIN	78°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$12.10	$4.85	WIN	98°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$12.10	-$12.22	LOSS	98°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$32.06	$12.86	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$19.77	$7.93	WIN	98°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$19.77	-$19.98	LOSS	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$10.70	$4.29	WIN	98°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$10.70	-$10.81	LOSS	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.710	$7.22	$2.90	WIN	98°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.590	$7.22	-$7.30	LOSS	98°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$6.12	$4.19	WIN	98°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$9.99	$6.84	WIN	98°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$5.41	$3.70	WIN	98°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.600	$10.70	-$10.81	LOSS	98°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-19	96-97°F	NO	0.590	$3.65	$2.50	WIN	98°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-19	98-99°F	NO	0.600	$7.22	-$7.29	LOSS	98°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$12.10	$1.93	WIN	76°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$12.10	$6.13	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$32.06	$5.11	WIN	76°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$32.06	$16.24	WIN	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$19.77	$3.15	WIN	76°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$19.77	$10.02	WIN	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-19	76-77°F	NO	0.620	$10.70	-$10.80	LOSS	76°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-19	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$10.70	$5.42	WIN	76°F
h4	LAX	2026-07-19	74-75°F	NO	0.860	$7.22	$1.15	WIN	76°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-19	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$1.20	-$1.21	LOSS	90°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-19	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$32.06	-$32.30	LOSS	90°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-19	90-91°F	NO	0.700	$1.06	-$1.07	LOSS	90°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$32.06	-$32.25	LOSS	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.760	$19.77	-$19.89	LOSS	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-19	82-83°F	NO	0.610	$13.71	$8.63	WIN	80°F
h1	SEA	2026-07-19	80-81°F	NO	0.820	$32.06	$6.89	WIN	78°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.590	$9.36	-$9.45	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.720	$6.59	$2.52	WIN	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.590	$7.39	-$7.47	LOSS	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.590	$5.39	-$5.44	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$12.95	$2.98	WIN	90°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$11.93	-$12.01	LOSS	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$40.44	$9.29	WIN	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$37.26	-$37.53	LOSS	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$20.85	$4.79	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-18	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$10.23	$5.66	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.710	$9.42	-$9.49	LOSS	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	82-83°F	NO	0.991	$7.46	$0.07	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	84-85°F	NO	0.970	$7.46	$0.23	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	86-87°F	NO	0.810	$7.46	$1.71	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-18	88-89°F	NO	0.640	$7.46	$4.13	WIN	90°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$12.95	$5.72	WIN	96°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$10.39	-$10.49	LOSS	96°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$40.44	$17.86	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$10.23	$4.52	WIN	96°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$8.21	-$8.29	LOSS	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.690	$7.46	$3.29	WIN	96°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.600	$5.98	-$6.04	LOSS	96°F
baseline	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$12.95	$1.93	WIN	94°F
h1	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$40.44	$6.02	WIN	94°F
h2	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$20.85	$3.10	WIN	94°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.430	$10.23	-$10.38	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-18	94-95°F	NO	0.430	$7.46	-$7.56	LOSS	94°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-18	96-97°F	NO	0.868	$3.54	$0.53	WIN	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-18	74-75°F	NO	0.850	$12.95	$2.24	WIN	78°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-18	74-75°F	NO	0.850	$40.44	$6.99	WIN	78°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-18	74-75°F	NO	0.850	$20.85	$3.60	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-18	76-77°F	NO	0.640	$10.23	$5.66	WIN	78°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-18	78-79°F	NO	0.660	$9.30	-$9.38	LOSS	78°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-18	90-91°F	NO	0.530	$7.66	-$7.75	LOSS	90°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$12.46	$7.20	WIN	90°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-18	92-93°F	NO	0.630	$40.44	$23.38	WIN	90°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-18	77°F or below	NO	0.850	$40.44	$6.99	WIN	80°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-18	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$40.44	$11.18	WIN	80°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-18	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$3.19	-$3.21	LOSS	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-18	77°F or below	NO	0.850	$20.85	$3.60	WIN	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-18	78-79°F	NO	0.780	$20.85	$5.76	WIN	80°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-18	80-81°F	NO	0.700	$20.85	-$21.00	LOSS	80°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$11.86	-$11.92	LOSS	88°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$11.86	$7.79	WIN	88°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$32.51	-$32.68	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$17.74	-$17.83	LOSS	88°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$17.74	$11.65	WIN	88°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$9.83	$6.46	WIN	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.790	$7.65	-$7.69	LOSS	88°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.600	$7.65	$5.02	WIN	88°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$11.86	$1.58	WIN	92°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$32.51	$4.34	WIN	92°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$17.74	$2.37	WIN	92°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.670	$9.83	$4.76	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-17	87°F or below	NO	0.880	$7.65	$1.02	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.770	$7.65	$2.24	WIN	92°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-17	90-91°F	NO	0.670	$7.65	$3.71	WIN	92°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$11.86	-$11.92	LOSS	94°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$32.51	-$32.69	LOSS	94°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$17.74	-$17.84	LOSS	94°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$9.83	$6.19	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.610	$7.65	$4.82	WIN	94°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.780	$7.65	-$7.69	LOSS	94°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-17	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$11.86	$1.15	WIN	86°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-17	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$32.51	$3.14	WIN	86°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-17	76-77°F	NO	0.910	$17.74	$1.71	WIN	86°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-17	78-79°F	NO	0.640	$9.83	$5.44	WIN	86°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-17	80-81°F	NO	0.620	$9.83	$5.93	WIN	86°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.560	$5.64	$4.37	WIN	92°F
h2	MIA	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.560	$8.43	$6.53	WIN	92°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.640	$9.83	-$9.92	LOSS	92°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-17	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$11.86	$1.43	WIN	86°F
baseline	NYC	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.670	$11.86	$5.74	WIN	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-17	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$32.51	$3.93	WIN	86°F
h1	NYC	2026-07-17	88-89°F	NO	0.670	$32.51	$15.75	WIN	86°F
h2	NYC	2026-07-17	84-85°F	NO	0.890	$17.74	$2.14	WIN	86°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$9.83	-$9.94	LOSS	92°F
h3	DEN	2026-07-17	94-95°F	NO	0.720	$9.83	$3.75	WIN	92°F
h4	DEN	2026-07-17	92-93°F	NO	0.540	$7.65	-$7.74	LOSS	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$12.85	$9.56	WIN	92°F
baseline	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$12.85	-$12.91	LOSS	92°F
h1	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$45.14	-$45.37	LOSS	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$22.13	$16.46	WIN	92°F
h2	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$22.13	-$22.25	LOSS	92°F
h3	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$9.51	$7.07	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.570	$7.28	$5.41	WIN	92°F
h4	ATL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.798	$7.28	-$7.31	LOSS	92°F
baseline	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$12.85	$3.55	WIN	90°F
h1	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$45.14	$12.48	WIN	90°F
h2	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$22.13	$6.12	WIN	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.740	$9.51	-$9.57	LOSS	90°F
h3	CHI	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$9.51	$4.40	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-16	89°F or below	NO	0.780	$7.28	$2.01	WIN	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.740	$7.28	-$7.32	LOSS	90°F
h4	CHI	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$7.28	$3.37	WIN	90°F
baseline	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$12.85	$3.55	WIN	88°F
h1	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$45.14	$12.48	WIN	88°F
h2	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$22.13	$6.12	WIN	88°F
h3	DAL	2026-07-16	88-89°F	NO	0.670	$2.39	-$2.41	LOSS	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-16	90-91°F	NO	0.780	$7.28	$2.01	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.895	$7.28	$0.83	WIN	88°F
h4	DAL	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.970	$7.28	$0.22	WIN	88°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-16	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$12.85	$2.95	WIN	82°F
baseline	LAX	2026-07-16	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$12.85	-$12.92	LOSS	82°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-16	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$45.14	$10.37	WIN	82°F
h1	LAX	2026-07-16	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$45.14	-$45.39	LOSS	82°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-16	78-79°F	NO	0.810	$22.13	$5.09	WIN	82°F
h2	LAX	2026-07-16	82-83°F	NO	0.780	$22.13	-$22.26	LOSS	82°F
h3	LAX	2026-07-16	80-81°F	NO	0.590	$9.51	$6.51	WIN	82°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$10.38	$4.80	WIN	96°F
baseline	MIA	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.510	$7.59	$7.20	WIN	96°F
h1	MIA	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$36.46	$16.87	WIN	96°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-16	92-93°F	NO	0.680	$7.68	$3.55	WIN	96°F
h3	MIA	2026-07-16	94-95°F	NO	0.510	$5.61	$5.32	WIN	96°F

Calibration ground-truthWunderground-basis highs toward re-fit (30)

City	Banked	Eligible
ATL	49/30	yes
CHI	48/30	yes
DAL	48/30	yes
DEN	49/30	yes
LAX	49/30	yes
MIA	49/30	yes
NYC	48/30	yes
SEA	35/30	yes

H5 divergencedescriptive — model vs market · captures 167 · markets 8 · span 2026-05-31..2026-05-31

Capture hour (UTC)	Mean \|edge\|
20:00	0.0257
22:00	0.0252

Glossarywhat the columns mean

Net ROI

Realized P&L ÷ total $ staked, after fees. The headline profitability number.

LOO ROI

Net ROI after deleting the single biggest winning trade — if positive ROI flips negative here, the gain was one lucky bet, not an edge.

Brier skill

How good the model's probabilities were vs a naive baseline. >0 = informative; separate from whether it made money.

Verdict

INCONCLUSIVE until ≥30 trades AND ≥12 city-days, then PASS-SCREEN (all three metrics >0) or FAIL.

Equity

Cumulative settled P&L over time. Indicative; books are paper and parallel.

h3 vs baseline

h3 (primary, mid-price NO band) vs baseline (the known-failing control) is the comparison to watch.

How it's tracked

1. A collector snapshots each city's Polymarket buckets + a fresh weather forecast ~4×/day.
2. decide (nightly) takes the lead-1 snapshot nearest 14:00 UTC, runs the frozen model, computes the model-vs-market edge, and opens a paper position in every book whose selector accepts it — sized by the same Kelly/fee/fill pipeline the backtest uses.
3. settle (each morning) resolves matured positions on the actual Polymarket / Wunderground outcome, books the P&L, and banks the realized high as calibration ground truth.
4. screen applies the pre-registered pass criteria per book. Everything here is paper; the six books are parallel hypotheses on the same decisions — compare them to each other, there is no combined bankroll. Total settled P&L across books so far: -$3,712.53.